CA CA - Barbara Thomas, 69, from Bullhead City AZ, disappeared in Mojave desert, 12 July 2019 #8

Discussion in 'Missing Persons Discussion' started by fictionisbetter, Jul 13, 2019.

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  1. Sunnymicki

    Sunnymicki Well-Known Member

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    On the contrary, luck and coincidence can contribute greatly to a person's opportunity. I believe that the point of the post you responded to is that the window of opportunity would've been so small as to require a large element of luck and coincidence to make an abduction a feasible scenario.

    I got curious about the actual odds of this happening, so I tried some google "research." Basically the odds of BT being a victim of stranger abduction are so small as to be out of the realm of realistic conclusion. Here are my big take-aways, with the explanation of how I got there to follow:

    BT had a 0.5% chance of a car passing her with a man in it who would commit a sexual assault IF she had stood at the side of the road until 201 cars had driven by that each had only men (or one man) in it. (The odds are MUCH smaller if only a few cars passed her on the roadside.) This statistic DOES NOT factor in abduction, only sexual assault. However:


    There is about a 0.00013% chance of an adult woman being abducted by a stranger.

    Details: What I found is that there isn't much info at all on adult kidnappings by strangers. Apparently adult kidnapping isn't even separately recorded by the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting system.

    So I extrapolated (in a very unscientific way lol). For persons under the age of 18, one report said that only about 100 cases per year can be classified as stranger abductions (source at end). Lets just pretend that women age 20 and above were abducted at this same rate in 1990 (explanation for why 1990 at the end). 79,816,985 adult women / 100 stranger abductions = 0.00013% chance of an adult woman being abducted by a stranger. Keep in mind, this isn't a real statistic because we are pretending adult women are subject to stranger abductions at the same rate as children are - but that's what we've got.

    I'm a dork and wanted to look at it from another angle. This time I used a US DOJ report on sexual assaults from the mid-90's (just what I found quickly when googling).

    I did a super rough calculation using this statistic: In 1994, there were an estimated 485,290 (reported and non-reported) assaults on females over the age of 12. (source at end of post)

    Using 1990 census figures, there were very approximately 97,571,000 females over the age of 14 in the United States (the age groups broke at 14, not 12 yrs, so this number was the closest I could figure to line up with the above statistic).

    97,571,000 women / 485,290 assaults = very approximately one assault for every 201 women.

    Just pretending that each victim has a unique offender (this is not actually true), we could generally estimate that one in every 201 men is an offender.

    So we could say that BT had a 0.5% chance of a car passing her with a man in it who would commit a sexual assault IF she had stood at the side of the road until 201 cars had driven by that each had only men (or one man) in it. That man who is willing to commit assault then also has to decide that he is willing to abduct Barbara in order to commit assault. And as we saw above, and from the stats below, that is exceedingly unlikely. Look at other statistics on sexual offenses:
    - Only one third of assaults took place during daytime hours.
    - 60% of assaults took place at the victim's home or a friend's or relative's home.
    - In 3 out of 4 assaults, the offender was not a stranger

    Given all that, we know that the odds are that it would take significantly more than 201 men-only cars before one came along with an offender who wanted to assault Barbara. But lets just go with it. And say half the cars are men-only, so 400 cars need to go by to find our offender. Per sroads post, on a "busy" day, he saw a car approximately every few minutes. Lets say one car every two minutes. That means that Barbara might have needed to be exposed to 800 minutes, or over 13 HOURS of being visible at the side of the road before an offender who wanted to sexually assault her came along.

    That all said, it seems that the only realistic abduction scenario is one in which BT (or RT? but that is a kind of wild scenario) knew her abductor and the abductor knew where and when to find her.

    Sources:
    Data on child stranger abductions: Missing Persons Statistics and Facts

    1990 Census data: https://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-12.pdf (table 1)

    Data on sexual offenses: https://bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/SOO.PDF (this report has stats from the mid-90's, which is why I used 1990 census data for calculations)
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2019


  2. Sunnymicki

    Sunnymicki Well-Known Member

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    You have to rely on the husband's story to believe that. And I think there is very good reason to believe that there is more to the story than he admits. I don't think there was ever a threatening male stranger either, but that is neither here nor there for the BT case.
     
  3. Stripehaven

    Stripehaven Well-Known Member

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    Does their property include a septic system?
     
  4. LAhiker

    LAhiker Well-Known Member

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    I may have made an error in my post, but I think what may be confusing is that the other posts I was quoting, though visible in my post, disappear in a reply. My first paragraph in the post, saying that it's easy to get separated/lost in the desert, was in response to a post that I understood to be implying that for Susan and William Schmierer to get separated near the Amboy Craters, a perpetrator must've been involved.

    My second paragraph was saying that it would have been difficult to impossible for a perpetrator to travel from where Sheryl Powell was when she ran into the brush to the stated location of the Barbara Thomas disappearance in the even the longest time that might've elapsed between the two incidents.

    So I was saying that these cases don't necessarily provide support for a theory that there's a California killer who attacks women (especially older and/or petite women) in remote locations when their husbands are nearby. JMO
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2019
  5. Stripehaven

    Stripehaven Well-Known Member

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    I feel the same way about red flags here, and I wonder if a controlling spouse would allow her to get too far out of his sight. Although apparently she did walk her dog alone so I dunno.

    I can’t even describe how much I hope there are answers soon. If we’re thus frustrated, I can’t imagine what torture this is for those who love her.
     
  6. cazador

    cazador Well-Known Member

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    What did BT do for a living before RT came into her life?

    Who owned real estate first ? BT or RT

    Did RT help sell the BT home then Marry BT?

    Did BT and RT purchase Henderson with BT equity from previous sale ?

    Now Together purchase the new home they live in today with BT Equity ?

    Did the equity from Henderson allow for the purchase of Home,Truck, Trailer, Boat, Plane..

    Was there a Trust ? Does BT have a separate Will ?

    Does RT own Everything outright now that BT has passed..?


    Why is he not actively looking for her this whole time ?
    He makes himself look bad for an innocent fellow..jmho

    I need more coffee ... :)
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2019
  7. MsBetsy

    MsBetsy Well-Known Member

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    Do we now if she normally took those things with her when she went camping or for walks?

    We do know that walking in the desert in a bikini and a beer was normal for Barbara.

    We don't know that her calls were "supervised." That she spoke to her family on speaker phone does not mean that it wasn't her choice to do so.

    Barbara has been described as an independent woman, and a free spirit.
    She doesn't sound like the kind of woman who would allow herself to be totally controlled by her husband.
    After all, they apparently argued and bickered the same as other couples, so it sounds like she had no problem standing up for herself.
    Imo
     
  8. Leney

    Leney Well-Known Member

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  9. MsBetsy

    MsBetsy Well-Known Member

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    She also went to Hong Kong by herself so she was independent enough to travel alone.
    We also don't know much about the dynamics of their relationship since we have not heard from anyone who saw them on a regular basis and they don't seem to have a large circle of friends. They seem like private people.
    We don't know who did the shopping or ran other errands.
    I think it was mentioned that Barbara's two closest friends were family members. Maybe she often did things with them without her husband around. Imo
     
  10. bronbaby

    bronbaby Well-Known Member

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    Please please know that people can and are in abusive relationships regardless of their personality type. I am speaking from personal experience. This misconception is one of the reasons why i did not want anyone to know as i feared i would not be believed. XO
    BBM
     
  11. slowpoke

    slowpoke Well-Known Member

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    Those may all be red flags, or they may not be.
    The things you list could all be perfectly normal, as well:

    If wearing a bikini, dbdb11 has told us that is typical for Barbara’s style, that she was comfortable being dressed like that.

    And if wearing a bikini, there’s generally no pockets to carry ID. It was a short jaunt, so she likely wouldn’t feel the need to carry it, anyway.

    No cell phone or email (I wasn’t aware of no personal email, is there a link for that someone can kindly steer me to?) may just show she didn’t embrace technology or care enough to learn.

    Putting a phone on speakerphone is common for many people. My husband, for example, does that for practically all his calls. It is just his preferred method.

    IMO
     
  12. MsBetsy

    MsBetsy Well-Known Member

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    Yes, of course, any person can find themselves in an abusive relationship. I think many women have had experience with men who are controlling and abusive. In fact the red flags are usually the hardest to see for the person that is being abused. I doubt anyone in Barbara's family would doubt her if she claimed she was in this type of relationship. In fact they were described as being very much in love with each other.

    My point is it's impossible to know if Barbara was in an abusive relationship based on what little we know.

    That she didn't have her own cell phone, spoke to her family on speaker phone, wore a bikini when hiking, and spent a lot of time with her husband is hardly evidence of abusive. Imo
     
  13. Leney

    Leney Well-Known Member

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    The son has made an accusation.
    No matter what LE believes, it would remain an open investigation until such time as they either prove or disprove all potential avenues of the investigation.
     
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  14. Leney

    Leney Well-Known Member

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    BBM

    Are we certain other hikers in the area did not see them ?
     
  15. Leney

    Leney Well-Known Member

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    I believe we are all very aware of this possibility.
    To not question this would be irresponsible of LE.
    Having stated that, someone may believe in hindsight that there was abuse does not make it so.
     
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  16. Leney

    Leney Well-Known Member

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    I must ask this of the VI.
    BT is a extremely photogenic.
    Were there any concerns that she was ill by any family ?
    She does not look well in the later photos.
     
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  17. Kapua

    Kapua Well-Known Member

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    No, we are not at all certain of that. If the truck and RV were parked at the side of the road near the Kelbaker/Hidden Hill intersection, and as poster sroad stated, a car went by every few minutes, then certainly, someone saw the truck w/fifth wheel RV, if not the hikers. That is why I was so insistent upon getting a picture of the vehicle on the poster. Now, whether or not the people who saw it remember seeing it, or even know that Barbara went missing that day is another question. MOO
     
  18. MsBetsy

    MsBetsy Well-Known Member

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    I don't think missing persons cases are ever closed unless they find the body. The case may be cold, but it still remains open.
    Many are still open even after the missing person has been declared dead. Imo
     
  19. Twistinginthewind

    Twistinginthewind Well-Known Member

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    Another thing that was new in RT and BT's lives this year (in addition to the recent purchase of the new truck and RV) is that they didn't plan a trip to go to Canada to visit RT's family, as they had done yearly in the past (according to posts by our VI). I wonder why. Something must have changed in the family dynamic where he grew up in Canada for him to stop going there this year, after years of doing so. MOO
     
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  20. Leney

    Leney Well-Known Member

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    I believe at some point in time we must acknowledge the number of days LE spent searching.
    They did not stop after one day, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.
    Something had to of given them reason to believe BT was in fact at that location.

    This is a LE agency I have a great deal of faith in.
     
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