CA CA - East Area Rapist/Golden State Killer *ARREST* #2

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Cappuccino said:
A 4th cousin! That's got to strike a lot of fear into the hearts of killers who've been getting away with it for years, most people don't even know their 4th cousins.
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I highly doubt it was a 4th cousin. Just because of the speed it took from the time Law enforcement made a partial match to when they had him under surveillance. Roughly 6 days. The DNA match would have to be a lot closer. I would not be surprised if it was his own daughter's dna that was matched.
 
Gussified said:
Wonder how many LEOs around the country/world are now scrambling to set up GEDmatch accounts.
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Lots, I hope. I also wonder how many people will decide to download their info to GEDmatch because of this case.
 
ReadyorNot said:
Oh I see each subsequent generation is still a 1st or 4th in this case. So that 4th generation cousin could be 20 years old right now. I get it now so confusing.
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Yes, and "generation" here means generated from the original person/ancestor, not the common usage of being of the same age group. Some of my 1st cousins were 30+ years older than I!
 
kilahchris said:
I highly doubt it was a 4th cousin. Just because of the speed it took from the time Law enforcement made a partial match to when they had him under surveillance. Roughly 6 days. The DNA match would have to be a lot closer. I would not be surprised if it was his own daughter's dna that was matched.
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It was a 4th cousin according to Paul Holes, and he should know. They also got the match four months ago, not 6 days ago.
 
Cappuccino said:
It was a 4th cousin according to Paul Holes, and he should know. They also got the match four months ago, not 6 days ago.
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Yes, and it seems JJD was in their sites as early as EO March, according to Holes. In the PC, they did say something significant happened 6 days prior, so I wonder what that was.
 
I'm a pretty talented amateur genealogist. A friend asked me to help her find her birth parents on Ancestry, through her DNA test. We found her mother quickly through first cousins. The father was tougher, for a number of reasons. Working through others connected to her DNA but not her mother's, we found her father's family. I worked on 4th cousin matches for weeks, to no avail. Another friend using a different method finally located the father's family, and then I found he had been missing from my tree. I added him, researched him some more, and voila! there he was.

My point is this, and these hunches are almost as good as fact 1. Once they had the cousin match, they used all the genealogy websites they could to build their own family tree, with as much information as possible. 2. They hired tree experts. A novice could have never traced the 4th cousin match. You need a ton more information, research skills, and imagination-- including info on living people-- which is not just on genealogy websites. FWIW
 
Gussified said:
Yes, and it seems JJD was in their sites as early as EO March, according to Holes. In the PC, they did say something significant happened 6 days prior, so I wonder what that was.
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I reckon it was the final DNA results that came back 6 days ago.
 
MrsEmmaPeel said:
I'm a pretty talented amateur genealogist. A friend asked me to help her find her birth parents on Ancestry, through her DNA test. We found her mother quickly through first cousins. The father was tougher, for a number of reasons. Working through others connected to her DNA but not her mother's, we found her father's family. I worked on 4th cousin matches for weeks, to no avail. Another friend using a different method finally located the father's family, and then I found he had been missing from my tree. I added him, researched him some more, and voila! there he was.

My point is this, and these hunches are almost as good as fact 1. Once they had the cousin match, they used all the genealogy websites they could to build their own family tree, with as much information as possible. 2. They hired tree experts. A novice could have never traced the 4th cousin match. You need a ton more information, research skills, and imagination-- including info on living people-- which is not just on genealogy websites. FWIW
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In your estimation about how many 4th cousins would the average family tree have?
 
Cappuccino said:
A 4th cousin! That's got to strike a lot of fear into the hearts of killers who've been getting away with it for years, most people don't even know their 4th cousins.
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And with technology getting better as the months & years go on, artificial intelligence, etc.......the 4 months it took to narrow the suspect down from a 4th cousin won't take 4 months in the near future but hours, & then minutes in the future. Yes, criminals do have something to fear if they leave DNA behind.
 
Random thoughts on DNA...

I know LE has a database of criminal DNA. Do they have a database of unidentified crime scene DNA? Seems like that would be helpful in linking crimes in different jurisdictions.

Also, within the FBI database (CODIS?), can they identify relatives, like they did with GEDmatch? I don’t think they can ATM, but it seems like that could/should be developed. So, maybe they don’t get an exact match in their database, but they identify a cousin (who is in the database) and work out from their.
 
SecretAgentMan said:
Talk about detectives having tunnel vision on one suspect, & the poor guy spends 39 years in prison for a crime he didn't commit. Just makes you think how many more innocent victims are rotting away in prison from the 70's, 80's & 90's.
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It is sad, in many cases you have average people who no very little about forensic science and DNA evidence making life and death decision on a jury pool. The system is far from Perfect. The good thing about these modern times is current DNA technology will prevent more innocent people being sent to prison and will catch more criminals as the technology get's more sophisticated. It is truly a remarkable science that fascinates me to no end.
 
Texas Red said:
In your estimation about how many 4th cousins would the average family tree have?
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I can't say for average. This is a quick calculation from my friend's tree, anywhere from 50 - 1250 4th cousins. This is based on the fact that some descendants don't have children, others have a lot. Remember, though-- ALL the people have to be filled in. Once you have the Fourth Cousin, you have to build all possibilities backwards. So imagine all the progeny of of your great-grandparents' (or great-great) siblings!
 
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