CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #2

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/23/mariposa-family-death-mystery/

Aug 23, 2021

The couple’s house sits near the head of Hites Cove Trail, and hours after the family was reported missing at about 11 p.m., the trailhead is where police started looking. A sheriff’s deputy found the couple’s truck parked near the trail’s entrance around 2 a.m., the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

Nine hours later and 1.5 miles from the truck, in an area known as Devil’s Gulch, a search-and-rescue team found Gerrish, Chung, their daughter, Miju, and the dog.

They were all dead.

[..]

Authorities still don’t know how they died. Autopsies yielded no conclusive results about the cause, CNN reported. A toxicology report, which could take several weeks, is pending.

Gerrish was in a seated position with the baby and dog beside him, according to the Chronicle. Chung was a little farther up the hill.

[..]

When police found their bodies, there were no signs of trauma, the Fresno Bee reported. There was no suicide note or indication that the deaths were intentional, according to CNN. Although temperatures reached as high as 109 degrees the day the family hiked, dehydration was deemed unlikely because there was still water in the family’s hydration pack, the Chronicle reported.

[..]

About a month before the family was found dead, the U.S. Forest Service warned that “a high concentration of algae bloom had been found in the Merced River near Hites Cove, where Gerrish and Chung were hiking. The Forest Service warned visitors not to swim or let their pets “enjoy” the water.

But reported human deaths from freshwater algal blooms are rare, the Chronicle reported. David Caron, a biological sciences professor at the University of Southern California, told the newspaper that although freshwater bacteria are a threat to people and animals, it would take high concentrations to kill humans rapidly.
______________

I think it's clear that investigators have been listening to the pathologist that examined and autopsied three different bodies where they even considered deaths from freshwater algal blooms which are reportedly rare.

Unlike the rest of us only reading about the deaths, I trust the pathologists here are being thorough with the many "knowns" including the location of the bodies, environment, last proof of life (within 48 hours of recovery), post mortem blood, and changes in the body, etc. A pathologist can also determine dehydration, and heat stroke from the post mortem blood and organs. Until final toxicology results are available, I think we will continue to learn from investigators only what was not responsible for the deaths and/or ruled out. MOO

http://www.pacoroners.org/Uploads/Topics of Interest/Postmortem Changes.pdf

 
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Mariposa Sheriff’s Office Update on the Gerrish – Chung Family | Sierra News Online

Aug 26, 2021

[..]

Additional details will be released as the investigation progresses.

Family Information –

Jonathan Gerrish – age 45

Ellen Chung – age 30

Aurelia Miju Chung – Gerrish – age 1

K9-Oski – Aussie/Akita mix – 8 years old

Sequence of Events –

8/14/2021 – John Gerrish researches Hites Cove hike via phone app

8/15/2021 7:45 am – Witness sees Gerrish/Chung family traveling towards the trail head in their vehicle

8/16/2021 11 pm – Family friend reports family missing

8/17/2021 1:53 am – Family car located

8/17/2021 1:55 am – Search and Rescue Mission Initiated

8/17/2021 11 am – Family Located by Search and Rescue

8/19/2021 – Autopsies completed on Family and Dog- All currently pending toxicology

8/20/2021 – Search warrants issued for phone found with family

8/20/2021 – Search warrants issued for family home and cars- nothing significant located

8/23/2021 – Additional water samples collected from water sources along the trail area

8/24/2021 – Cell phone delivered to FBI for data extraction- Awaiting results

8/25/2021 – Search Warrants issued for possible social media access

Trail Information –

Hites Cove Rd – Savage Lundy Trail located Inside the Ferguson Fire (2018) footprint.

Entire Trail Loop is approx. 8.5 miles – 5 miles of the trail consists of a steep southern exposure path with little to no trees or shade.

Spot Weather for the area indicates temperatures during 11:50 am – 5:50 pm ranged between 103-109 degrees in certain areas of the trail.

Additional Testing / Tox- No results received as of the date of this update. Timeline for results of testing pending –

Gerrish/Chung toxicology sent to labs.

K-9 Samples sent to multiple labs.

Multiple Water samples taken in the area and of water the family had with them. Samples sent to both State Water Board and independent laps for testing.

Further assistance for additional testing is being coordinated with CDC and Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment.

Causes of Death Ruled Out: The following have been ruled out based on evidence recovered or through investigation. ALL other potential causes of death remain.

Gun or any other type of weapon.

Chemical hazards along the Savage Lundy trail.

[..]
 
I think it is easy to underestimate it unless you have seen it, experienced it or read something like this. Vets and peds need to use words like brain damage to get through to people. Even with all the media around Kreycik and his death from heat they still did not register how dangerous the weather and terrain were. What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke | Outside Online
@LifeIsAMystery, thank you. I agree with @Officer Dibble that this is an amazing read - riveting, shocking and educational. I particularly appreciate the sentence: "Exertional heatstroke, on the other hand, pounces on the young and fit. Exercise drastically accelerates temperature rise." That sure sounds like it applies to this case.

I had wondered if someone could commit suicide by inducing heatstroke so as to camouflage taking their own life. But after reading this, I have my answer!
 
You're making an assumption they were still alive when the temp maxed out.

The autopsies could have shown evidence of heatstroke but I wonder if the interval between death and autopsy made it difficult because of decomposition.
I think the precise moment that the temperature maxed out isn't that important. According to the temperatures measured at a nearby weather station, it was 107 degrees at noon, 108 degrees at 1 pm, 109 degrees at 2 pm, 107 degrees at 3 pm, and 105 degrees at 4 pm.

LifeIsAMystery wrote: "With temps of 109 and no shade, hydration is not the issue, it is core temp." I think that conclusion is likely correct, and it holds true over a period of at least several hours.
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/23/mariposa-family-death-mystery/

Aug 23, 2021

The couple’s house sits near the head of Hites Cove Trail, and hours after the family was reported missing at about 11 p.m., the trailhead is where police started looking. A sheriff’s deputy found the couple’s truck parked near the trail’s entrance around 2 a.m., the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

Nine hours later and 1.5 miles from the truck, in an area known as Devil’s Gulch, a search-and-rescue team found Gerrish, Chung, their daughter, Miju, and the dog.

They were all dead.

[..]

Authorities still don’t know how they died. Autopsies yielded no conclusive results about the cause, CNN reported. A toxicology report, which could take several weeks, is pending.

Gerrish was in a seated position with the baby and dog beside him, according to the Chronicle. Chung was a little farther up the hill.

[..]

When police found their bodies, there were no signs of trauma, the Fresno Bee reported. There was no suicide note or indication that the deaths were intentional, according to CNN. Although temperatures reached as high as 109 degrees the day the family hiked, dehydration was deemed unlikely because there was still water in the family’s hydration pack, the Chronicle reported.

[..]

About a month before the family was found dead, the U.S. Forest Service warned that “a high concentration of algae bloom had been found in the Merced River near Hites Cove, where Gerrish and Chung were hiking. The Forest Service warned visitors not to swim or let their pets “enjoy” the water.

But reported human deaths from freshwater algal blooms are rare, the Chronicle reported. David Caron, a biological sciences professor at the University of Southern California, told the newspaper that although freshwater bacteria are a threat to people and animals, it would take high concentrations to kill humans rapidly.
______________

I think it's clear that investigators have been listening to the pathologist that examined and autopsied three different bodies where they even considered deaths from freshwater algal blooms which are reportedly rare.

Unlike the rest of us only reading about the deaths, I trust the pathologists here are being thorough with the many "knowns" including the location of the bodies, environment, last proof of life (within 48 hours of recovery), post mortem blood, and changes in the body, etc. A pathologist can also determine dehydration, and heat stroke from the post mortem blood and organs. Until final toxicology results are available, I think we will continue to learn from investigators only what was not responsible for the deaths and/or ruled out.

http://www.pacoroners.org/Uploads/Topics of Interest/Postmortem Changes.pdf

Exactly
 
I think the precise moment that the temperature maxed out isn't that important. According to the temperatures measured at a nearby weather station, it was 107 degrees at noon, 108 degrees at 1 pm, 109 degrees at 2 pm, 107 degrees at 3 pm, and 105 degrees at 4 pm.

LifeIsAMystery wrote: "With temps of 109 and no shade, hydration is not the issue, it is core temp." I think that conclusion is likely correct, and it holds true over a period of at least several hours.
The could have died while the temps were much lower, based upon the info that has been released so far.
 
The could have died while the temps were much lower, based upon the info that has been released so far.
That's definitely possible. And, as many of us have observed, different members of the family could have (and probably did) die at different times.

But if one assumes, as I do, that there was a serious condition that disabled at least one member of the family on Sunday afternoon, heatstroke is much more likely than dehydration.
 
This is the source: 'Not one clue': The mystery is only deepening around the family found dead on a Sierra trail

I’d also like to add this:
Investigators believe the family hiked most of a grueling 8.5-mile loop including 5 miles of steep southern exposure trail with little to no trees or shade in 103 to 109 degree heat before succumbing on the return to their truck on a steep switchback.

Investigators have ruled out 2 causes of death in case of Mariposa family, but still have no answers

I don't know if the quote is from the 8/20/21 news link or later (paywalled) but I wonder if investigators have since changed their opinion and/or misrepresented by the reporter.

The following update from Mariposa Sheriff's Office about the Gerrish/Chung family was provided on August 26, 2021.

Specific to the trail information, there's no opinion offered by Sheriff but it doesn't follow that the family would have completed 8.5 miles on Sunday-- or even attempted most of the 8.5- mile loop under the conditions stated.

I also don't find it consistent with JG's history per his Alltrails profile. MOO


Trail Information –

Hites Cove Rd – Savage Lundy Trail located Inside the Ferguson Fire (2018) footprint.

Entire Trail Loop is approx. 8.5 miles – 5 miles of the trail consists of a steep southern exposure path with little to no trees or shade.

Spot Weather for the area indicates temperatures during 11:50 am – 5:50 pm ranged between 103-109 degrees in certain areas of the trail.
^^rsbm
 
Rickshaw can you please elaborate on this: “they had turned around & were heading back.” I’m wondering where you think they may have started from, & how we know they we’re going back over their way in. I’m not doubting you or quarreling, quite the opposite! I want to understand fully because I am utterly confused & might be contributing to conversation strangulation because I thought most people were saying they did almost the entire loop & that police believe they hiked most of the 8.5km meant that too.

Edit to add ie.:
1. Do you think they went Hites cove route around most of the circle, & at the switchbacks were turning back toward Hites cove again?, or
2. They went down SL some indefinite distance, stopped, & came back up the SL way?


Thanks so much for your ongoing help with this case!!

My position on where the family was and where they'd been.... IMO the assumption that they did a loop trip is backing good WS-ers into a box. If we give that up, there are many more possible scenarios. We also don't have a definitive statement from LE: with have an imagined map from the journalist.
So, you've got mom and dad, baby and dog. They park the car and get out. It's 85-90 degrees. They don't have a big plan for the day, but just want to stretch their legs and get out of the house. With COVID and all, they've been getting cabin fever. They've brought enough water to do just the little outing they have in mind, and maybe a little extra. Maybe there's rumors of a mine not far in or they have some other end point planned, maybe not.
So, they head down the dirt road to the gulch. Leisurely.... They're feeling great still when they reach the switchbacks. They go down a bit.
Then they realize the heat is really quite overwhelming, they anticipated there would be trees, and the baby is fussing. They know they didn't bring much water, and reckon they'd need more to continue. So, they turn around and head back to the car. Soon after (or 15 minutes or 30 minutes after, it really doesn't matter), the heat overcomes them.

A plan to hike the whole loop here is outlandish. It doesn't match with the couple's experience level, which was very solid and which would have given them many cautionary vibes. It doesn't match their parental responsibility, and we haven't heard from anyone that they were anything but super caring parents? I really can't see them doing the loop, let alone pushing through it to the end: it just doesn't fit. IMO the only way to signal that that's what they did is to examine their "carry in/carry out", so we'd know what scale of a trip they planned and what they'd used. If there's not much, IMO there's no way they planned to go far.
 
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I think it is easy to underestimate it unless you have seen it, experienced it or read something like this. Vets and peds need to use words like brain damage to get through to people. Even with all the media around Kreycik and his death from heat they still did not register how dangerous the weather and terrain were.

What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke | Outside Online
Kreycik didn't have any water at all, either? From what I could tell, this guy was used to pushing his body. Ultra-distance running IIRC: you've gotta ignore the elements to some degree. It's what he does, maybe even lives for. He must simply have misjudged the limits. At some point, you're tempting fate.
I can't believe the Gerrish couple was in high-risk mode. So far, we haven't heard anything that would suggest that's their style, either ever, or just since baby came. I mean, we'd be talking about something outlandish.
 
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CamelBack website shows options available.
But we don't know it was a Camelbak brand.... I hate to narrow the possibilities as we are developing scenarios. LE referred to the water carrier as a bladder. This leaves open the possibility that the volume was much higher than the kind of bladder you stick in your pack that has a hose running out of it. Camelbak is a common brand for these. And, yes, they do max out at 3L because they otherwise get too long for the length of your pack.
It's possible the couple had a bladder that was a big 'ol water bag. I didn't interpret it that way (I interpreted it the way you did), but don't want to make assumptions.
This is crucial, since if the bladder was substantially higher in volume than a Camelbak-type bladder, the couple evidently planned for a long hike.

For the good of the order, the brand "Camelbak" is often used as a synonym for "bladder", the way Kleenex is used for tissue or Hoover for vaccum.
 
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Haha! You just gave me an idea! Maybe the couple was quarreling, so there was some psychological pressure added to trip decisions? This is entirely speculative. I have zero evidence.

My position on where the family was and where they'd been.... IMO the assumption that they did a loop trip is backing good WS-ers into a box. If we give that up, there are many more possible scenarios. We also don't have a definitive statement from LE: with have an imagined map from the journalist.
So, you've got mom and dad, baby and dog. They park the car and get out. It's 85-90 degrees. They don't have a big plan for the day, but just want to stretch their legs and get out of the house. With COVID and all, they've been getting cabin fever. They've brought enough water to do just the little outing they have in mind, and maybe a little extra. Maybe there's rumors of a mine not far in or they have some other end point planned, maybe not.
So, they head down the dirt road to the gulch. Leisurely.... They're feeling great still when they reach the switchbacks. They go down a bit.
Then they realize the heat is really quite overwhelming, they anticipated there would be trees, and the baby is fussing. They know they didn't bring much water, and reckon they'd need more to continue. So, they turn around and head back to the car. Soon after (or 15 minutes or 30 minutes after, it really doesn't matter), the heat overcomes them.

A trip around the loop is so far out of these folks' experience and parental responsibility, I really can't see them doing the loop, let alone pushing through it to the end. IMO the only way to signal that that's what they did is to examine their "carry in/carry out", so we'd know what scale of a trip they planned and what they'd used. If there's not much, IMO there's no way they planned to go far.

ETA: I think your scenario is possible and I’m not a trail hiker. I agree LE should have the final say on the route.

RBBM, emphasis mine.

In fairness, the verified journalist from the SF Chronicle stated the map was made with the aid of the sheriff.

Matthias Gafni
@mgafni

·
Aug 20

With the help of the Mariposa sheriff, we were able to create a more accurate map of the suspected hike the family took. And sadly where they were found. https://sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Not-one-clue-The-mystery-is-only-deepening-16401921.php…



https://twitter.com/mgafni/status/1428907517019516928?s=20
 
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You know, @RickshawFan, I've been following your lightening theory as I caught up with this case here.

I think the ground lightening idea is interesting but there is one key fact that stops me from considering it seriously. And maybe I am wrong about this. If the family was struck by lightening and killed, wouldn't they have fallen to the ground where they were or been blown some distance away from the force of the energy?

In other words, it would seem odd to me that Dad, babe and dog were all neatly lined up together on the side of the trail if they had been struck by lightening and killed. I'd think they would appear somewhat scattered or in a random pile together. That is, unless they were already sitting down and resting when the lightening struck. But then why would Mom end up 30m up trail, unless maybe she was catapulted away from the group with the blast of energy from the lightening?
I will not be testing this theory, but these are great points!
 
Found this trail map. All three legs of the loop are shown with respective distances. I get a total of 6.7Mi. 2.1 Hites Cove 1.8 South Fork Merced 2.8 Lundy Savage.
Lundy Savage FAIRLY STEEP with around 1700FT (+/-) elevation change.

Map
 
I concur with @RickshawFan 's scenario above. I believe LE went into this case understanding heat stroke about as much as we did. I feel I have to take what LE says with a grain of salt-- given their past dramatizing of this family's death as Daily Mail material-- until the final tests are in. And this goes for their report of which route the family took.

FWIW, the newest report says Philip Kreycik died within five hours. Yes he had no water, and yes, he exercised aggressively for 45 minutes and jogged for an hour, but that leaves 3 more hours of slow walking and dying. In his case, too, heat stroke was rarely mentioned because his experience as a trail runner prejudiced so many to assume he knew what he was doing.

Forgive me if this has been posted. I didn't see it. Heat stroke believed to have probably caused runner Philip Kreycik’s death - The San Francisco Times
 
Found this trail map. All three legs of the loop are shown with respective distances. I get a total of 6.7Mi. 2.1 Hites Cove 1.8 South Fork Merced 2.8 Lundy Savage.
Lundy Savage FAIRLY STEEP with around 1700FT (+/-) elevation change.

Map
Great find. A map like this can save your life, and it's the most helpful so far in this case IMO.
 
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