CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[Lexiintoronto]

Is this the smoking gun?

I just found these images in archived storm cell/precipitation maps on Radar from 08/15/2021, 08:20pm - Mariposa. And now I am incredibly, incredibly sad.

There was a storm cell over them that day. I’ve marked the family’s location on the switchbacks with a red dot to the best of my ability on the images, but I’m no cartographer.

As you can see, a rather large cell was approaching Wawona at 6:00pm PDT (the times on the images are CDT, so you have to subtract 2 hours). The center of that cell is about 12 miles from the family, as the crow flies.

It proceeded to move northwest, directly towards the family, over the course of the next hour, until it was nearly on top of them by 7:10pm.

At any time during that hour, out on the exposed set of switchbacks, they were in clear danger from cloud to ground lightning emanating from that cell. And the time frame matches the time that I at least would have waited to start heading up that god-awful trail.

I don’t need any more proof at this point, and I’ll just wait for LE to call it. Finding this data made me actually nauseous and depressed. God speed to them all.

That’s a good find. And not to take away from that, but it is also almost 12 hours after they were seen at the trailhead. Eerie and sad that it passed over them.

They were likely there at that point, but IMO, not responsive. (My own view that they passed or were incapacitated within hours from last being seen.)

 

[RedHaus]

@RedHaus I'm not in the area. I divide my time between Los Angeles and Joshua Tree, here in Southern CA. We have a lot of Illegal grows in the desert and raids are common. While Humboldt County is the perhaps the most well known grow county in California, illegal grows are popping up throughout the state. Thankfully, LE in cracking down on them. In many places they deplete water sources and/or contaminate them.

MOO.

Sorry about that, @Coquette! I appreciate your knowledge of this issue nonetheless!

 

[RedHaus]

That’s a good find. And not to take away from that, but it is also almost 12 hours after they were seen at the trailhead. Eerie and sad that it passed over them.

They were likely there at that point, but IMO, not responsive. (My own view that they passed or were incapacitated within hours from last being seen.)

I agree with you @Lexiintoronto, at the risk of diminishing @SpideySense's passionate research (not my intent!) Given the conditions that day and how I interpret the data at hand, I also think this poor family was deceased or incapacitated much earlier that day given the conditions. As much as I dabble with other theories, I still believe, IMO, they perished where they were found and that was as far as they got that day - 1.5 miles down the SL trail.

 

[RedHaus]

So let's revisit this "Illegal Marijuana Grow Operations" angle. I am the first to say this could be a remote possibility. But I agree with @Coquette there is enough to merit keeping this on the long list (wish I could say short list!), IMO.

I am attempting a multi-quote reply to some folks, so bare with me. I'll try to keep this short as I don't want to belabor this. But I want to clarify things for the sake of keeping our sleuthing anchored in facts and sound information.

I would expect any illegal mj grows to be in the backcountry away from formal maintained and popular trails.... I really don't know how big a problem that is or isn't .... I don't think a passing encounter with applied herbicide/pesticide runoff would cause instant death?

RSBM

I agree. I doubt anyone would be growing weed in that area.
Too hot, bad soil, algae in the water. jmo

Good points, too public too it would seem. That trail is used more in spring and fall, and the area on the switchbacks is so open. Seems they would want something a bit more secluded or less obvious.

1. Of course illegal grow operations are well hidden and off the beaten path so they can covertly operate. I don't think anyone here suggested illegal grow operations on the side of any of any trails this poor family may have hiked on.

2. From LE activity by the Mariposa Sheriff's Office cited here, illegal grows certainly exist in Mariposa County. If you want to dig deeper into this, I suggest poking around the discussion on the Sheriff's Office's FB page re: this case.

3. Carbofuran is lethal to all animals in small amounts (see my posts ^^^), but of course it depends on exposure dose. As the Audubon article highlighted, illegal grow ops use this pesticide to bait traps for animals, including humans.

It’s possible. But are the mines way off the trail? And how do we explain no apparent COD? What roving drug gangs kill people in a manner that shows absolutely no signs? No signs of struggle, no bruises, no ligature marks, no stab wounds, no gunshots?

4. In earlier threads (T#2 perhaps), @eptichka83 did a nice job identifying three key mines off the trails discussed in this case. And I think it was @RickshawFan who found another source citing something like 50 mine claims in the area.

5. Illegal grow ops are not roving gangs. They are typically run by violent drug cartels, including from Mexico. It is commonly known grow ops often include campsites for staff and security who will kill to protect operations.

6. We know from LE JG/EC were not shot or stabbed and thus murder has been discounted. So the idea bounced around early on (T#1?) was if the family tripped a pesticide (e.g. Carbofuran) spray trap (off trail). And as is well described in the Audubon and Wiki articles I've posted about Carbofuran it can be rapidly lethal. How long an animal (including a human) can survive before succumbing depends on the dose. So if Oski ate a bait trap intended for a coyote or other animal threatening their camp and/or the entire family was exposed, they could have died further on.

Ah. I’m getting the theories mixed up. So we are talking about potentially being exposed to a toxin and then succumbing as a result? I suppose it’s possible. It depends on how long it would take to make them sick. Because it looks like they were halfway up the hill back to the car when they succumbed? Do I have that right?

7. Yes, but again, this is a remote possibility, although it looks like we have a bunch of remote possibilities still.

If they are using pesticides that are so lethal that it would kill a family walking by, I would expect the growers to all be dead as well.

8. Well, these are agriculture operations that are well run and use pesticides on their crops all the time (hence the public health and environment concern about run off ). Using Carbofuran to bait traps (e.g. food, spray) is just another use of pesticides. In other words, these folks know what they are doing and have been doing it for many decades.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

Well, let's just say, I now have no desire whatsoever to even visit Mariposa, much less go hiking. Illegal and poison grow operations, toxic algae, invisible lethal lightning, extreme heat, fire-scarred desolate rocky paths. Thank God, I live in San Diego!

 

[gitana1]

I agree with you @Lexiintoronto, at the risk of diminishing @SpideySense's passionate research (not my intent!) Given the conditions that day and how I interpret the data at hand, I also think this poor family was deceased or incapacitated much earlier that day given the conditions. As much as I dabble with other theories, I still believe, IMO, they perished where they were found and that was as far as they got that day - 1.5 miles down the SL trail.

Apparently the sheriff helped with a map of their likely path. It showed they would’ve been going up where they were found, having almost completed a loop that starts with them going downhill toward the river?

What makes you inclined to think they started on the opposite end? And what do you think killed them 1/2 way done the steep trail?

TIA!

 

[gitana1]

So let's revisit this "Illegal Marijuana Grow Operations" angle. I am the first to say this could be a remote possibility. But I agree with @Coquette there is enough to merit keeping this on the long list (wish I could say short list!), IMO.

I am attempting a multi-quote reply to some folks, so bare with me. I'll try to keep this short as I don't want to belabor this. But I want to clarify things for the sake of keeping our sleuthing anchored in facts and sound information.

RSBM


1. Of course illegal grow operations are well hidden and off the beaten path so they can covertly operate. I don't think anyone here suggested illegal grow operations on the side of any of any trails this poor family may have hiked on.

2. From LE activity by the Mariposa Sheriff's Office cited here, illegal grows certainly exist in Mariposa County. If you want to dig deeper into this, I suggest poking around the discussion on the Sheriff's Office's FB page re: this case.

3. Carbofuran is lethal to all animals in small amounts (see my posts ^^^), but of course it depends on exposure dose. As the Audubon article highlighted, illegal grow ops use this pesticide to bait traps for animals, including humans.

4. In earlier threads (T#2 perhaps), @eptichka83 did a nice job identifying three key mines off the trails discussed in this case. And I think it was @RickshawFan who found another source citing something like 50 mine claims in the area.

5. Illegal grow ops are not roving gangs. They are typically run by violent drug cartels, including from Mexico. It is commonly known grow ops often include campsites for staff and security who will kill to protect operations.

6. We know from LE JG/EC were not shot or stabbed and thus murder has been discounted. So the idea bounced around early on (T#1?) was if the family tripped a pesticide (e.g. Carbofuran) spray trap (off trail). And as is well described in the Audubon and Wiki articles I've posted about Carbofuran it can be rapidly lethal. How long an animal (including a human) can survive before succumbing depends on the dose. So if Oski ate a bait trap intended for a coyote or other animal threatening their camp and/or the entire family was exposed, they could have died further on.


7. Yes, but again, this is a remote possibility, although it looks like we have a bunch of remote possibilities still.


8. Well, these are agriculture operations that are well run and use pesticides on their crops all the time (hence the public health and environment concern about run off ). Using Carbofuran to bait traps (e.g. food, spray) is just another use of pesticides. In other words, these folks know what they are doing and have been doing it for many decades.

Thanks for the clarification. I said roving bands because I thought someone suggested they were murdered on the trail!

 

[willyengland]

The SF Chronicle journalist received recent pictures of the south fork of Merced River and the toxic bacteria bloom on banks.
https://twitter.com/mgafni/status/1428903681483710464?s=21

Seeing these images I would say that it is extremely improbable that they drank from this brew. Perhaps the dog, but not the humans, esp. the baby.

 

[TailSpin]

Been away from this thread for a few days and we're now at thread #3! I still believe the most likely explanation is that either Jonatha, the infant or dog started showing signs of distress due to heat and the whole group stopped to rest and deal with the situation. The area they were in provided no shelter from the heat so things got worse and Ellen eventually realized she needed to leave to get help but it was too late for her as well. IMO this was an accidental death due to heat with no foul play involved.

 

[arrogantcat]

Seeing these images I would say that it is extremely improbable that they drank from this brew. Perhaps the dog, but not the humans, esp. the baby.

You don’t have to drink directly from the still water though - if you’re downstream from it, the water might be flowing well and look clean, but still contain highly toxic levels.

 

[NSamuelle]

Been away from this thread for a few days and we're now at thread #3! I still believe the most likely explanation is that either Jonatha, the infant or dog started showing signs of distress due to heat and the whole group stopped to rest and deal with the situation. The area they were in provided no shelter from the heat so things got worse and Ellen eventually realized she needed to leave to get help but it was too late for her as well. IMO this was an accidental death due to heat with no foul play involved.

What puzzles me about Ellen “going for help” is that she didn’t have a phone (only one phone was referenced and given to the FBI on 8/24 for processing, and it was Jonathan’s, found in his right front pocket). Even if there’s poor reception in the canyon, she could’ve called as soon as she reached reception - if she had a phone - but she didn’t.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

Happened in July, died in Sept.

Local woman dies after suffering tragic hiking accident in Arizona

According to the family's ******** page, 26-year-old Rebecca Rowan was hiking on a trail with her brother near Tucson, Arizona. The pair ran out of water during the hike and accidentally wandered off the trail when they became confused due to heat exhaustion and dehydration.

I get a message that the article is not available in my area. So she survived in July and just now died? Horrifying. That article in the last thread about how dangerous hiking is was eye opening.

 

[alibrarian]

I get a message that the article is not available in my area. So she survived in July and just now died? Horrifying. That article in the last thread about how dangerous hiking is was eye opening.

A few parts of the original article from July:

"Rebecca fell unconscious before first responders could reach them and is in critical condition at a Tucson hospital. The family says she will need a double transplant of a liver and kidneys in order to survive."

And then the update from this month:

"The Rowan Family has informed WTAE-TV Rebecca Rowan has died after weeks of battling her injuries following a tragic hiking accident while visiting her brother near Tucson, Arizona in July."

Not sure I can post more, it's a short article.

 

[Curious_in_NC]

Well, let's just say, I now have no desire whatsoever to even visit Mariposa, much less go hiking. Illegal and poison grow operations, toxic algae, invisible lethal lightning, extreme heat, fire-scarred desolate rocky paths. Thank God, I live in San Diego!

Certainly, that choice is up to you. But I think you might be missing out on a golden opportunity to enjoy Mariposa before the Murder Hornets arrive.

 

[MsBetsy]

What puzzles me about Ellen “going for help” is that she didn’t have a phone (only one phone was referenced and given to the FBI on 8/24 for processing, and it was Jonathan’s, found in his right front pocket). Even if there’s poor reception in the canyon, she could’ve called as soon as she reached reception - if she had a phone - but she didn’t.

Maybe they were both confused and disoriented at that point. She may have thought he was right behind her. They both may have stopped to rest and lost consciousness minutes later.

 

[Rocky Mountain Hi]

What puzzles me about Ellen “going for help” is that she didn’t have a phone (only one phone was referenced and given to the FBI on 8/24 for processing, and it was Jonathan’s, found in his right front pocket). Even if there’s poor reception in the canyon, she could’ve called as soon as she reached reception - if she had a phone - but she didn’t.

With what we now know about how heat exhaustion/stroke work, if in fact that's what was going on with them, we can't expect her to have been thinking entirely rationally at the time, though it seems her condition wasn't advanced enough, that she headed off to the car and ended up wanderiung in circles (not that the structure of the trail would permit that, anyway). She may have been going on survival instinct, only thinking "I've got to get to the car", with that being her consuming focus, and forgot about the phone.

Whether it was due to excessive heat or something else, these people were in a state of acute distress. The car probably represented her/their only hope of survival, so it would be understandable if she fixated on that exclusively, with whatever energy she had remaining. Which, as we know, wasn't much. Not enough.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

A few parts of the original article from July:

"Rebecca fell unconscious before first responders could reach them and is in critical condition at a Tucson hospital. The family says she will need a double transplant of a liver and kidneys in order to survive."

And then the update from this month:

"The Rowan Family has informed WTAE-TV Rebecca Rowan has died after weeks of battling her injuries following a tragic hiking accident while visiting her brother near Tucson, Arizona in July."

Not sure I can post more, it's a short article.

Wow, horrible. Thank you for posting. Public education campaigns need to include "brain damage" and "multiple organ failure" and "possible death" along with the info that no amount of fitness, no gear and no amount of water will prevent or treat heatstroke in extreme temps.

That poor family. RIP Rebecca. People need to be given accurate information so they understand the true risks. The language has to be more direct so people don't assume it does not apply to THEM. Ugh. Far too many of these cases.

Edited: I found another link that may work for some Local woman dies after suffering tragic hiking accident in Arizona (msn.com)

 

[jonjon747]

oriented at that point. She may

Maybe they were both confused and disoriented at that point. She may have thought he was right behind her. They both may have stopped to rest and lost consciousness minutes later.

I doubt they got disoriented due to heat stroke. They were found in the middle of the trail which shows clearly there was nothing strange about where they were found. The woman was found heading uphill possibly facing toward their car so it looks very normal where she was trying to go.

 

[lotus777]

Apparently the sheriff helped with a map of their likely path. It showed they would’ve been going up where they were found, having almost completed a loop that starts with them going downhill toward the river?

What makes you inclined to think they started on the opposite end? And what do you think killed them 1/2 way done the steep trail?

TIA!

Someone posted earlier that LE's theory that they did the Hites Cove Trail first was later deleted from that article but not officially retracted. (I don't know exactly which article.)

I figure OP's idea that they only got 1.5 miles down the trail is because of how bad the heat would have been. Or maybe they did make it to the river but ended up in distress during the climb on the way back.

 

[MsBetsy]

I doubt they got disoriented due to heat stroke. They were found in the middle of the trail which shows clearly there was nothing strange about where they were found. The woman was found heading uphill possibly facing toward their car so it looks very normal where she was trying to go.

Well, hopefully we will know the COD soon. Heat exhaustion can come on very quickly. Every individual reacts differently and they may have become disoriented or they may have been functional and aware of their surroundings until they couldn't physically go on anymore. Not all heatstroke victims wander and not all become confused. They may have only had physical symptoms before they lost consciousness.