Discussion in 'Located Persons Discussion' started by mlhenn, Jul 11, 2021.
I simply can't imagine what "zig-zagging in tight clusters" means. (from the official report)
fyi - from the Mercury News
Philip Kreycik's smartwatch GPS data offers clues into his death
The media (or maybe ALCO Sheriff, though not PPD) seem to be misinterpreting the typical gps wiggles you get when stationary.
I’ll be sharing the track btw, including the cadence data, when I publish what I’m writing. I keep getting distracted trying to find the most updated LUP for Garms: they have approvals but they made modifications to the trails in that area since the 2012 concept map was produced but it doesn’t seem to be public anywhere. That LUP may answer a key question about the flags that the park doesn’t seem to have an answer for.
Moller Ranch and the Preserve have turned into Down Hill style fast speed mountain bike trails. There has been a controversy about the north part of Pleasanton Ridge being turned into something similar to what has happened there as well as Crockett Regional Park New Mountain Bike Friendly Multi-Use Trails at Crockett Hills Regional Park : Bermstyle
Nat Lopes from Hilride was hired to do the concept map for the Land Bank areas for the Pleasanton Ridge LUP https://www.ebparks.org/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?blobid=26896 and part of the push is to put in a bunch of single track mountain bike paths. There is a Trails Working Group set of documents here EBRPD - Trail User Working Group that is posted on the EBRPD web site and I don't know if they have updated documents there.
The Sierra Club's position is that regarding Crockett, there was no public notice that a lot of single track mountain bike trails were put there and that the rumor is that EBRPD plans to do the same thing in the northern portion of Pleasanton Ridge park. The quote from the white paper https://www.ebparks.org/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?blobid=33591 is: "We assume the District has informally agreed to allow all or a portion of Crockett Hills to be a “mountain bike playground park”, but we are not aware that the implications of this decision were ever discussed with adjacent communities or the public. We have also heard rumors that the District is considering turning the North end of Pleasanton Ridge over to mountain bike use, which we of course will oppose because the ridge was acquired to preserve scenic open space features and significant natural resources to be enjoyed all residents."
Regarding Garms and the Garms staging area, the most recent document I can find is a ppt from 2014 and is from the city of Pleasanton --- http://www.cityofpleasantonca.gov/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=24618
I don't know where the most up to date documents are. A lot of the documents I know about it are fairly old and released by EBRPD back in the 2011 and 2012 time frame.
It's a very good lesson for everyone. Do not become overconfident in your abilities, whether it's hiking or running in extreme hot or cold temperatures, launching out into unknown waters alone because you're a great swimmer, surfing on waves during a storm, racing your car around a corner at breakneck speed because you're a very skilled driver, skiing outside of boundary lines or whatever. Respect the power of nature and accept that you are human, not superman.
I’ve found multiple approvals documents from the last few months / last three years in which funding / use approval / environmental review etc were completed. Garms seems extremely close to becoming a reality, seems possible for them to break ground in the next year: likely they will build Tyler Ranch first. Unfortunately none of those docs has an updated map, I’ve heard from sources within of adjustments but no confirmation of what those are. The main reason I’m interested has more to do with how to memorialize Phil than anything else. He spent most of his last day on various portions of what could very possibly be someone taking their own initiative to build an officially planned trail hoping to speed things up on their own. If it is the official alignment I want to push to turn it into Kreycik Trail. If it’s something else that’ll be interesting too, because it’s laid out well enough the park would likely keep it… and it doesn’t mess up the older concept alignments, and maybe we can still advocate for it. Those concept alignments don’t make sense once you get on the ground though, this does.
I would think this area Pleasanton Ridge is certainly best for mountain bikes due to its vast sprawl and relatively sparse usage by hikers. There are far better/far safer trails that don't trade off the challenge to hike at nearby scenic Mt. Diablo and Tassajara, to name a few that have other hikers on them in case of emergency. In either case I believe all of these hold ups only make the area less safe (trails ambiguous, incomplete).
It def gets used by hikers-- maybe not as much at those north gates. As an almost daily user of EBRPD and both a walker & a cyclist, I think it's important for all parks to maintain trails that are off limits to cyclists so walkers don't have to worry about leaping out of the way. The protocol of shouting out "on your left/right" seems to have given way to cyclists wearing ear buds and zipping by unannounced.
I agree on your point of the cyclist. I have a question: About how may people hike to that Pleasanton ridge a week? (For instance, how much traffic does Mariposa trail receive in a given month or week?) I imagine the number is small...
I don't know if Philip Kreycik's case had any influence on this decision or not, but Strava announced today their Beacon locating feature is now free for all users, at least for those tracking their runs by the Strava app with a phone. This feature sends your location and other information to up to three contacts when you start an activity. It's still a paid feature for those using Applewatches or GPS watches.
Strava’s Beacon Security Characteristic Is Now Free To Use - Healthdaily365
I heard the trail was released (from Phil's watch) also showing cadence. Where has it been released? Thank you.
Or runspired if you are releasing - when will you be done with the write up (you mentioned you will release after the write up)? Thanks again.
tbqh: this is something I’ve been avoiding. Not because I don’t want to tell the story, I just needed a break. Sorry, I too love info and explanations and write ups that are at my fingertips instantly when I want them, but this one’s been tough.
I’m in a much better place atm than I was, and I’d expect to find the motivation soon ™
God bless you, runspired, for all you've done and all you've been through. Take your time with this. Your analysis and insights will be very helpful.
Thank you for your response. The question was a follow to what you mentioned "The media (or maybe ALCO Sheriff, though not PPD) seem to be misinterpreting the typical gps wiggles you get when stationary".
I believe Phil was wearing a Suunto Ambit3? We have been unable to reproduce this "zigzag pattern" with this watch so was hoping you would share the at least the trail data you have to show what you mean so we can make sure we understand? Thank you.
My opinion only, but what do we gain from knowing more details of his last moments?
There is not any question of how he passed away, when, how, or where. I'm not understanding how a write up would be helpful to other cases?
I say this because if it takes energy to write, I think let it be. Peace.
Did the toxicology report come back?
Did they ever find out who the second person on the ridge was? "The parks employee that interacted with this runner has been interviewed by PPD, but there simply isn't enough detail to locate the runner which is what we need".
@runspired, are you still following through with your expert write up of your interpretation of the GPS data? Personally, I don't understand how the GPS data could "add noise" and cause "zig-zag and circles" in Phil's path with constant GPS lock (top of the ridge, no large buildings that would obstruct). I work with GPS and I know the chip inside the Suuno G3 watch. I believe Phil was actually making the actual path shown on his watch described as "zig-zags and circles". Was he trying to get away from something that may be interpreted incorrectly (while overstating the dangerous effect of 30 minutes @86F characterized by media as "the cause of his delirium")? There are several paths that lead to the trail he ran on that come from all directions, not just from the parking lot he was in so others could have been up there but not parked in the same parking lot.
@runspired, I tried to get a hold of you via twitter path but it says "Account Suspended". Maybe in error?
So many unanswered questions. Still a mystery. Also they didn't find his body because the area was "outside jurisdiction"? If true, are you kidding me?? It was at the end of the path (N Ridge Trail) so really there was only about 2 miles of possible path he could have been on, and was! But the final end portion of that trail (1/4mile, a portion that goes downhill and was skipped for unknown reason) was never searched until weeks later. So very odd. Also I am baffled that the body was intact and did not succumb to wildlife in the area. First time I ever heard of that in the Pleasanton hills area. Are there any experts that can comment on this? Thank you!
All questions I have asked myself. I have my own thoughts about what happened….
Throughout the investigation of Philip's disappearance, law enforcement sources occasionally made statements that were misleading, if not inaccurate. In this thread and elsewhere, runinspired provided additional information and context that put certain facts and theories in a different (and more complete, imo) light.
One thing that Philip's tragic case exposed is how ignorant many people are of the effects of heat stroke. In particular, I think there's a benefit to understanding how someone with heat stroke behaves and how their decision making is compromised. If the description/interpretation provided by LE of Philip's final run is partially incorrect or incomplete, I would appreciate reading a more thorough analysis.
To be clear, I certainly don't believe that runinspired has any obligation to write up or share his analysis. It would be more than understandable if he decided not to. But I think it would be of value, especially for those of us who sometimes exercise in hot weather.
I agree about how more information would be helpful.
1. I'm astonished by how quickly heat can kill. I read a story about Michael Popov, an ultra distance runner, who was heat acclimated. In 2012 he went on a 6 - 10 mi run in the summer in Nevada, with his cell phone and water. He completed his run but collapsed by the side of the road at the end. People stopped to help him, EMTs were called but he died. An autopsy found he died of the results of a heat stroke.
2. I'd also like to know about the zig-zags. I really don't think Philip ran around in tight circles for 4 hr before he died. Did the battery in his watch run down after 4 hrs.? Is that why the data stopped?
3. runspired said the data showed that Philip had an exercise induced heat stroke at first but recovered from it before he succumbed to a heat induced heat stroke. It would be interesting to know how the data shows this.
4. This is a sensitive area but the data can help alleviate the guilt that people who were part of the search may feel. From what I read in runspired's preliminary analysis, Philip may have died within an hour of when he started his run. Therefore, no one could have helped him, unless there had been a person on the trail who saw his distress, which there wasn't. And even then, like Michael Popov, Philip may still have died.