Found Deceased CA - Philip Kreycik, 37, Pleasanton Ridge Regional Park, 10 Jul 2021

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EmmieA

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Maybe. My watch doesn't upload things until it's connected back to the phone - in which case, it looks like it came from the phone (not Android, though).

His friends say he didn't take the phone, as he was trying for ultra-light. Did he even have water? Do we know?



Totally disagree about "someone with suspicions." In this day and age, my family members give parameters that tie them to strict return times. I'm serious.

If my SO was supposed to contact me after an hour of hill hiking (which he does routinely - not a runner, a hiker), not only would I be on the phone, but I know the name of our neighborhood watch commander and that person would answer my urgent messages - day or night. I live in a place similar to Pleasanton.

If I told my spouse I was going for a 20 minute walk (I would set my watch timer) and it was 45 minutes, with the uptick in various crimes and misdemeanors, he'd call it in and I guarantee you, there would be a response from our neighborhood resource officer. I help train them (but that wouldn't be why they respond - they don't even know my partner's name). Our police staff takes missing person reports extremely seriously and uses all reports for training. There are a few daily (kids go down into the river bed, etc)

The older the person, the more likely it is that they are actually responsibly hiking/running and will let others know when they are done and on their way. All I'd have to do is tell the desk person at our local LE that my SO normally checked in promptly when he said he would, but hadn't done so. It would take a couple of hours to get a helicopter into the air, but less for LE to be at various trail heads, asking people what's up (not all the trailheads, but the beginning and ending, for sure).

There's a reason that people give their loved ones their times and parameters and the loved ones try to be diligent. It's not at all surprising to me, as a Californian (and NorCal is more diligent than SoCal) to think that the spouse of a runner/hiker who reported them missing would be seriously listened to.

He's not the type of guy who just stopped for a beer and ignored his obligation to turn up and pick up his family. It's hard to explain, but my gut level understanding of ultra-marathoners and hill runners tells me that he didn't just skip out.

I'll eat my words if that turns out to be the case. But personally, I think suggesting he'd do this to his wife, children, friends, colleagues and law enforcement is truly ugly. He's a victim of misadventure and needs rescue. He didn't run off in any planned manner. IMO.

Using the word "alibi" implies you think he was, in addition, trying to cover something up.

I have read many other crime/missing persons stories, from all over the country, and LE usually doesn’t rush to respond if a supposedly healthy adult male is 60 minutes late. IMO, the quick response has something to do with the affluent community.

Speculating about where Philip is isn’t “truly ugly” - It’s what people do when they’re sleuthing. It’s been 3 weeks and there’s not one solid credible piece of physical evidence (that we know of) that he was actually on that trail - so we brainstorm and think of other possibilities.
 

ElizabethAnne

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Maybe, but I think they mentioned many places. And I'd bet PK has Strava routes on his phone for most parks with decent running trails in the East Bay. In the text with CT he said he was going to find a place to run on the way to Stockton, making it sound like he would choose the spot fairly spontaneously. Which makes me wonder whether others really knew this is where he was going to run. When he told his wife his eta, had he told her specifically where he was going to run?



I thought there were searches already underway at the time the shouts were heard, and the consensus was that it was most likely searchers shouting "Philip" which could easily sound like "help".

MOO
There are a number of high transmission towers at the top of Pleasanton Ridge near Santos Ranch Road. Some are very high and over 300 ft tall like this one Google Maps
and
https://www.emporis.com/buildings/963725/transmission-tower-pleasanton-ca-usa

If Philip had hypothetically been at the top of Pleasanton Ridge, at some point, he would have seen these, and he would have probably thought that there is a road that leads to these where the companies can service these very tall antennas.

I don't think he would have gone as far south as Sunol. These towers are not subtle either. You can see them far away from Livermore and they are so high, they are required to have lights at the top of them so that airplanes do not hit them.

If he had gotten lost at the top of Pleasanton Ridge, I think he would have made his way to these towers rather than travel toward Sunol. There are houses near here as well and a paved road that leads down to Foothill Rd.
 

ElizabethAnne

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It wouldn't happen where I live in CA and our terrain is very similar to that of Pleasanton, with a very large SAR and LE presence.

There would have to be a threat of some kind like physical harm or suicidal tendencies.
Pleasanton PD probably responds quickly because through the years there have been a number of suicides near or in Pleasanton Ridge and not because of a specific threat of suicidal tendencies. Also because the temperature was so high that day, I suspect they also responded fast.

Man Commits Suicide on Pleasanton Ridge

Police: Missing man’s body found in Pleasanton Ridge Park – East Bay Times

https://twitter.com/pleasantonpd/status/781164142333943809?lang=en
 

Curious_in_NC

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Maybe. My watch doesn't upload things until it's connected back to the phone - in which case, it looks like it came from the phone (not Android, though).

His friends say he didn't take the phone, as he was trying for ultra-light. Did he even have water? Do we know?
rsbm
I can only speak to my own experience using Strava over several years. If I record an activity with either a Garmin watch or an iPhone, that's what Strava says it was recorded on, no matter how it was later uploaded.

Philip taking water is still a big mystery as far as I know. I would have brought a hand held bottle. Some might have used a "bottle drop" strategy, leaving it along the trail for later. We really don't know what he did.
 

ElizabethAnne

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I don’t know if those trails have car-access next to the running parts but somehow him leaving in a car (whether voluntarily or under distress) seems plausible to me at this point. Can anyone familiar with the area clarify whether he could have hopped into a car while on the trail, or if he would have to be more towards a main road to get in a car?

WHAT IF he had ran into a buddy, hopped into his car for whatever reason, and the friend was meant to drive him back to his own car but they got into an accident? Without ID would they identify him?

With any type of hypothesis like this, where he could have been injured away from the park….Could he be in a hospital somewhere? (hopefully they’ve checked all the John Doe records?)

Car theory works for me only because of lost scent, inability to find him….Either getting in a car for a planned escape, or with someone who caused him harm (either abduction or someone he trusted who turned on him). Or with a friend where their day just got really derailed by something like an accident. I really am grasping at straws. None of it makes sense.
There are roads that lead to the top of Pleasanton Ridge as well as emergency access vehicle roads that lead there. It is fairly easy for someone to figure out where they are by looking at land use documents published by the EBRPD on Pleasanton Ridge and available on the internet.
 

cujenn81

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This link seems to have some pretty interesting info on how temperature affects scents.

Family-Disaster-Dogs: Temperature and Scent affects Working Dogs

Throughout the increasing heat of the day, water and moisture in the scent particles evaporate. The surfaces and the scent become dry.

This means during certain times of the day, the particles of scent will be more difficult to detect due to the loss of moisture in everything. Scent particles are still there but shrunk in a sense and can be detected under certain circumstances.

This is why search dogs and tracking dogs should be kept hydrated at all times.

Mild temperatures will affect the dog’s nose less but more with distance. For instance, when a dog begins to dehydrate after tracking for several miles the nose will dry up and scenting ability begins to drop.

At this point a dog may lose the scent, go off track or stop trailing or tracking the trail or scent not because the trail has disappeared but because their nose is dry.

...

The day’s temperature plays a role in how quickly the scent particles will be released or if they stay dry making them move more easily on the wind. The surface comes into play when the surface changes from grass, dirt, pavement or a table top.
This article speaks specifically about trailing or tracking dogs, though. Is the same true for HRD dogs?
 

RumorMonger

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Using the word "alibi" implies you think he was, in addition, trying to cover something up.

SBM
To be clear, the parameter of the question I was answering was "if he is not in the park." Under those circumstances, yes, my theory is that he was covering up whatever he was doing. (I suppose it wasn't necessarily something illegal or nefarious, so I take back my "up to no good" comment.)

On the point of reporting someone missing after an hour we'll just have to agree to disagree. As adamant as you are that such is normal I am adamant that such is NOT normal. Suffice to say those are both opinions so no need to argue the point. IMO
 

mlhenn

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This article speaks specifically about trailing or tracking dogs, though. Is the same true for HRD dogs?
The previous article was interesting (IMO) because it discussed temperature and its affects on a dog picking up scents in general...

This article covers cadaver dogs specifically but seems to provide some of the same general affects.
Cadaver Dogs - Can Dogs Smell Death? — Murder Science

Heat and humidity can reduce the dog’s ability to identify remains, both through the interference caused by the dog panting in order to cool down and the decreased spread of the scent5. As scents disperse from remains, they become more diluted in the air and are weaker.

Can affect dog’s ability to identify remains:
•Wind direction, the shape of the terrain, and objects in the terrain like buildings and trees
•temperature, humidity
•other smells that could be misleading
 

ElizabethAnne

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I think its important to remember that shoe prints matching PKs shoes were located on the uphill portion of the Mariposa trail and photographed early in the search (blue star on the map). According to Chris (PKs good friend), there's a high likelihood that those prints were PKs.

This would suggest that PK ran the Strava route but took a shortcut via the Mariposa Trail, possibly because he was running slower in the heat. He was also close to the peak of the run at that point, and most of the route from that point forward would have been downhill.

I speculate he tried another shortcut that cuts through one of the canyons as he may have been familiar with the trails that this canyon joins with from previous runs in the area. At this stage he
  1. Either injured himself or heat got to him in a very hard to find spot given how much this area has been combed.
  2. Ran into Tehan Canyon Road and either ran into someone on the road or ended up on private property / homes. There are several large homes/properties on this street whose properties run right into some of the trails that would have led PK back to his car. I would love to know if these homes/property owners have allowed LE to search.

See map. Red is the "shortcut" run through Mariposa and the blue arrow is what I speculate.

kr44MwA.jpg
It does not rain during the summer so compared to most places where it does rain, shoe prints can last a long time. I don't think that it is a 100% guarantee that those shoe prints are Kreycik's. Given Niederhaus's latest comment that the PPD is 100% sure that where Kreycik should and could have been has been searched, I wonder if he even got to Pleasanton Ridge in the first place. I'm also fairly sure they have searched in the Tehan Canyon area as well based on the news reports prior to the search this last weekend.

"We pretty much 100% covered where he could've been, should've been or would likely show up," Pleasanton Police Lt. Chris Niederhaus told press at a local high school where volunteer search teams were being coordinated on Saturday afternoon.

Police have now searched '100%' of places missing runner could be
 

Frndlylndlrd

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Pleasanton PD probably responds quickly because through the years there have been a number of suicides near or in Pleasanton Ridge and not because of a specific threat of suicidal tendencies. Also because the temperature was so high that day, I suspect they also responded fast.

Man Commits Suicide on Pleasanton Ridge

Police: Missing man’s body found in Pleasanton Ridge Park – East Bay Times

https://twitter.com/pleasantonpd/status/781164142333943809?lang=en

Strange, I wonder if there’s any chance those weren’t actually suicides. Or is it not unusual to have three suicides in a park of this size?
 
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RumorMonger

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I speculate he tried another shortcut that cuts through one of the canyons as he may have been familiar with the trails that this canyon joins with from previous runs in the area. At this stage he
  1. Either injured himself or heat got to him in a very hard to find spot given how much this area has been combed.
  2. Ran into Tehan Canyon Road and either ran into someone on the road or ended up on private property / homes. There are several large homes/properties on this street whose properties run right into some of the trails that would have led PK back to his car. I would love to know if these homes/property owners have allowed LE to search.
Not arguing, genuinely asking, if either 1 or 2 is true, where is he? Why hasn't he been found? Do you suppose he hid himself on private property?
 
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