Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #100

Discussion in 'Coronavirus - Covid-19' started by Amonet, Jan 17, 2020.

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  1. LaborDayRN

    LaborDayRN In a world where you can be anything, be kind

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    I had Moderna arm with the second dose also. Sore, red and swollen. My lymph nodes in my underarm and my neck were quite swollen and very tender to touch. For the third dose "booster" I just have to plan to take it easy for a few days.
     
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  2. LadyL

    LadyL Well-Known Member

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    just wanna say thanks to everyone for contributing so much good info over the last 100 threads! it's been a long haul ... and we're not there yet ...
     
  3. LadyL

    LadyL Well-Known Member

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  4. ilovewings

    ilovewings Well-Known Member

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    Is this really surprising? Nope
     
  5. ilovewings

    ilovewings Well-Known Member

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  6. jjenny

    jjenny Well-Known Member

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  7. MimosaMornings

    MimosaMornings Well- Known Member

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    Is the first and second dose of Moderna the same?
     
  8. jjenny

    jjenny Well-Known Member

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    Yes, first and second dose of Moderna are exactly the same. Moderna wants the third dose to be halved.
     
  9. 10ofRods

    10ofRods Verified Anthropologist

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    I think your estimate of undetected COVID cases is a bit high. Short answer is that places like NY, Mass., RI, CA are approaching or at herd immunity and despite Delta and its upsurge, are not seeing big leaps in per capita cases.

    Overall rate of people who have had COVID in the US is 15%. Keep in mind that in some places, it's lower, in others it's higher.

    In order to estimate the numbers of asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic people to add to that figure, we can use the overall infection rates in each locale. Mild and asymptomatic cases are not the majority cases. Increased screening in workplaces (for symptoms) all across the US has resulted in many a person getting rapid tested in order to go back to work or school, if they have the sniffles. The truly asymptomatic are very few; most are actually pre-symptomatic and will go on to test positive. Most studies on this topic estimate their number as 5%, but let's be optimistic and add 10% to our overall numbers.

    That increases the total number of Americans who have had COVID to 16.5%. Again, let's be optimistic and round up to 17%.

    Then, keep in mind that places like NJ or RI or NY, that had COVID circulating far in advance of places like OK or MS. So using the same percentage to estimate this is tricky. NY, NJ and RI are indeed approaching herd immunity, which is why you don't hear about 10 teachers dying in a brief period of time (today's news out of Miami-Dade).

    In California, 66% of people over 12 have had at least 1 shot of a vaccine (and for some, that's all they were required to have, with J/J). Some of those, however, already had COVID so we can't just at our 17% to that. Studies here show that about 70-80% of people who had COVID really don't want it again - so they are vaccinated. We can therefore only add about 3-4% from the "have had COVID" pool to that. So in California, we are getting close to 70% of us having either had COVID or are fully vaccinated. Here's a graph that shows that California, while experiencing an unexpected and significant rise in COVID, is no where near where it was at the peak:

    California coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak

    The cases are almost entirely within the unvaccinated group (30% of California is still 13 million people. Larger than entire states.

    So, if one of the most highly vaccinated states (where many counties still have mask mandates) still has 13 million people susceptible to COVID, that's a lot - enough to drive the new curve (which as you can see, is half or less of what it was when very few people were vaccinated).

    Since society is sharply divided between vaxxers/anti-vaxxers and maskers/anti-maskers we can look at counties in California where those people are high in numbers - and yep, that's where we're getting our bump-up in cases. It's really very sad. It's mostly rural counties (and Marin County, which is a whole 'nuther story), and Orange/San Diego counties. There are also certain occupations in Los Angeles (inexplicably, firemen and some nurses) refusing to vaccinate, even though many said they would once Pfizer had full approval (I get that people are scared).

    Some states are below 50% vaccinated. Add in a couple more percentage points for the "immune via having had COVID" category (so add 7%, being optimistic). That's not herd immunity. With this virus, scientists have been saying "at least 70%" (including children) but no one could know until there was actual data. For some viruses, it needs to be higher. It can even be 90%. Since the new variants are mutating faster than the old ones (and are more contagious), I'm guessing we'll need 90%. So...that's why even Massachusetts and California are seeing upticks. Take a look at this heat map (you'll have to scroll to it):

    Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

    Notice how pale New England is (not much COVID).

    And then...there's the waning immunity issue. From what I can tell in the academic literature, people who had mild or asymptomatic COVID are much more likely to experience a loss of immunity and get COVID again. I know a 20-something who has tested positive 3X over the past 15 months. This person is a student athlete and they had to get tested weekly to play. All three cases were mild/almost asymptomatic. No fever. Latest time had loss of taste/smell.

    Sad part is that people who survived a severe case AND are vaccinated likely have organ damage of some kind now, so that even a mild case is dangerous for them. This would be the elderly and our immune-compromised populations. This naturally boosts hospitalization rates.

    I think the data from Israel (probably the best overall studies) tell this story. Breakthrough rate is low, and the people who had the breakthrough cases (mostly mild - they studied healthcare workers who had to be tested regularly) had lower titers for the immune factors in the blood. For whatever reason, their immunity decayed more quickly than the average person:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072

    3% of their fully vaccinated healthcare workers got COVID again. Of those, 19% had persistent symptoms. No one died. (So 0.6% of the vaccinated) I'd bet Delta variants were responsible for this (there are now several forms of that variant, all of concern, as well as C.1 and MU - I'm not up on all the Greek letters for each variant).

    We'll get there. This was pretty wordy, but if you go to the NYT link above and look at "states where COVID is most on the rise" they include the vaccination rates for that state. Excluding Guam, all of the places have a lower than average vaccination rate. Some of them are also weak on social distancing and mask wearing (worldometers has that data).

    TL;DR If you live in one of the states with a lower than 50% vaccination rate, and no one else wants to get vaccinated (state is throwing away vaccines, sending them to other places, etc), then...there's going to be continued COVID (probably at the plateau the state is at right now, perhaps increasing) until the other half gets COVID. There are lots of states in that group.

    Sadly, Florida is going to probably end up with mortality rates similar to NY's, despite the fact that COVID hit NY way earlier and that there's now a vaccine...they're inching closer ever day. It's just happening more slowly (many factors).
     
  10. 10ofRods

    10ofRods Verified Anthropologist

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  11. Sprockett7701

    Sprockett7701 Well-Known Member

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    Because herd immunity doesn’t take into account children under 12…
     
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  12. Cool Cats

    Cool Cats Well-Known Member

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    I posted the first article to this, here are follow up articles

    Angry Men With Zip-Ties Ambush School Principal After COVID Masking Reques

    Arizona principal threatened with zip ties after student told to quarantine

    upload_2021-9-4_15-9-38.png
    [​IMG]
    3 men threatened to arrest the principal under a citizen's arrest :eek:
    Note middle guy with scary looking law enforcement-grade zip ties


    Tucson, AZ Police arrested a 40-year-old Arizona dad after he stormed into an elementary school principal’s office with a friend wielding plastic handcuffs, insisting the administration broke the law by asking his child and six others to wear a mask and quarantine after being in close contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19.

    “I can tell you the end result of that incident was we did make one arrest for trespassing,” Sgt. Richard Gradillas of the Tucson, Arizona, Police Department told The Daily Beast, identifying the dad arrested as Rishi Rambaran.

    Two men accompanied Rambaran on Thursday as he ambushed Principal Diane Vargo.

    The third man stood in the doorway of Vargo’s office with a fistful of “law enforcement-grade” zip ties at the ready—as the trio was prepared to make a citizen’s arrest.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2021
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  13. pocketaccent

    pocketaccent Well-Known Member

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    With delta, 80% vaccination isn't enough according to this article. (LA county)

    Due to delta variant, L.A. County won't reach herd immunity with 80% vaccinated
    With the highly contagious delta variant still predominant in Los Angeles County, public health officials say the region will no longer reach herd immunity against the coronavirus once 80% of eligible residents are vaccinated.

    Initially, public health Director Barbara Ferrer projected L.A. County could get 80% of those eligible vaccinated and reach herd immunity by late July. But that was in May, and dependent on vaccinations keeping up at the same rate.
    ...
    “I think delta has scrambled everything, mostly because it’s so much more infectious,” Ferrer said in a briefing Thursday.
    ...
     
  14. Cool Cats

    Cool Cats Well-Known Member

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    Health officials keeping "very close eye" on new COVID variant

    As the Delta variant of COVID-19 continues its deadly sweep across the U.S., officials say that they are keeping a "very close eye" on a new variant that may be able to bypass existing coronavirus antibodies.

    The World Health Organization designated Mu a "variant of interest" this week, and said more studies need to be done to confirm whether the variant could evade existing antibodies.

    Viruses are known to mutate over time as they spread, and not all variants will be able to persist. If a variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, proves to spread faster, cause more severe illness or lessen the effectiveness of current prevention or treatment options, it gets categorized as a more serious "variant of concern."

    There are currently four "variants of concern": Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta. Delta, which turned up in the U.S. in the spring, is more contagious and now makes up the overwhelming majority of U.S. cases.

    Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants
    WHO announces simple, easy-to-say labels for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Interest and Concern

    All viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, change over time. Most changes have little to no impact on the virus’ properties.

    However, some changes may affect the virus’s properties, such as how easily it spreads, the associated disease severity, or the performance of vaccines, therapeutic medicines, diagnostic tools, or other public health and social measures.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2021
  15. Cool Cats

    Cool Cats Well-Known Member

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    Scaring schools into lockdown, this is a very ___ (fill in blank) thing to do.

    3 Washington schools went into lockdown after far-right anti-mask protestors tried to access property

    upload_2021-9-4_16-4-6.png
    A group of Proud Boys protested outside of Washington state schools on Friday, prompting three of the schools to go on lockdown.

    Members of Patriot Prayer, a far-right group tied to the Proud Boys, assembled outside of Skyview High School on Friday in Vancouver to protest against face mask requirements. Many wore signature Proud Boys colors, yellow and black, according to Oregon Public Broadcasting. Some students and teachers in favor of masks showed up to counterprotest.

    Washington state requires face masks for all staff and students, according to the Department of Health.

    Some of the Patriot Prayer protesters at Skyview attempted to escort a student who was seeking a medical exemption for wearing a mask into a building, which prompted intervention from the school's security guards. According to OPB, the protestors falsely claimed that the student had been threatened with arrest if they entered the school without a mask.

    Following the confrontation, Skyview High School and schools in close proximity - Alki Middle School and Chinook Elementary - were placed on lockdown, according to KGW8.

    "As a safety precaution, Skyview, Alki and Chinook were put into a lockdown on Sept. 3 due to a disturbance by protesters who attempted to come onto Skyview's campus," said Patricia Nuzzo, communications director for Vancouver Public Schools, according to KGW8. "This is related to yesterday's protest against Washington state's requirement for staff and students to wear masks or face coverings in schools and on buses."
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2021
  16. Satchie

    Satchie Well-Known Member

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    The CDC estimates 120 million actual infections in the US. Cases, Data, and Surveillance

    176 million fully vaccinated.

    But who knows how much overlap there is. People who've had Covid, likely later get vaccinated. Is anyone going around saying, "I've already had it, so I'm already immune and don't need to get vaccinated?" Just as an eg, Trump got vaccinated, though he already had it.

    Also, statistically, 1 person who caught the original virus would pass it on to, IIRC, 3 people.

    Now, with Delta, one infected person will (on average) pass it to many more (the number is hard to pin down, some say as high as 8).

    Secondly, the statistical immunity conferred by either the vaccine, or natural antibodies, from catching and being able to spread it), was never 100%. A percentage of people can still spread the virus, although they are unlikely to suffer as much/be hospitalized, etc

    And the vaccines were not tested against Delta for their efficacy (stopping spread). It may turn out that immunity isn't waning, but rather that efficacy is much lower with Delta.

    (Crudely, efficacy is about stopping spread, effectiveness is about stopping hodpitalization/death)

    To stop it from circulating at all in a population, is now going to be much more challenging.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2021
  17. 10ofRods

    10ofRods Verified Anthropologist

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    Not easy to come by (and expensive - it's a serological test). I've been thinking about getting one. However, it's easier just to get the booster. What else would I do if I found out it was low?

    I suspect that if I have average antibodies, I might have more of a reaction to the booster- but I don't think it's intolerable.
     
  18. Cool Cats

    Cool Cats Well-Known Member

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    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-08-covid-herd-immunity.html
    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-08-late-delta-variant-herd-immunity.html
    AUGUST 16, 2021

    COVID-19 herd immunity is not going to happen, so what next? It could be too late to stop the Delta variant, and to achieve herd immunity.

    upload_2021-9-4_16-28-7.png
    upload_2021-9-4_16-32-21.png

    The evolution of the virus has been so rapid that the Delta variant, which is currently dominating the world, is at least twice as transmissible as the ancestral virus that was circulating.

    What this means is that herd immunity is no longer a discussion the world should be having. We should start to avoid using that term in the context of SARS-CoV-2, because it's not going to materialize—or is unlikely to materialize—during our lifetimes.

    When politicians and others speak about herd immunity, unfortunately, they are under the misconception that the current tools we've got are adequate to eliminate the virus. It's not what we have at hand right now.

    Instead we should be talking about how to live with the virus. The tremendous success that's materialized with COVID-19 vaccines allows us to do this, without actually getting into the herd immunity threshold.

    Peddling the concept of herd immunity creates a misconception that we are actually going to get to a stage where this virus is going to be eliminated. That's unlikely to happen. It will continue circulating.

    There are a number of dangers in continuing to make people believe it's possible.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2021
  19. 10ofRods

    10ofRods Verified Anthropologist

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    Yes - I think we need 90%. And not only are small children not able to get vaccines (so we'll never get to 90%) but immunity decays.

    However...things have certainly slowed down. I don't foresee a time when I won't be wearing a mask in any indoor situation or in any crowded outdoor area, and I don't foresee a time when I'll be going to any crowded indoors events. No more live music for me. Unless it's outdoors in a park or something. No more movie theaters (although I learned that if a person goes to a noon matinée on a weekday...there's usually hardly anyone there, so maybe...)
     
  20. SouthAussie

    SouthAussie Well-Known Member

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    It is very sad - and ridiculous - that some schools are turning into mini war zones.
    Board members resigning, teachers being assaulted. What a different kind of 'learning' for the children to be experiencing. :(

    Schools are supposed to be safe zones.

    All of this absurd grandstanding about a little piece of protective cloth with ear loops.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2021
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