Excellent post as always. The Sweden experiment is something I check in on everyday. Because I don't know if they are wrong or right.
Are all lives equal? Is the man at 85 in end of life care "worth" the same as a child? I don't think there is a need to go there.
I am obsessed with trying to understand the truth, through the misinformation put out there. What ever happened to reporting the facts by the media?
I asked a well educated engineer from work yesterday, and he guessed the average age of a CV death in Massachusetts was 60, and 75% had underlying health issues. He was very worried about COVID-19. And he is 25. He watches the news.
You say the median death age in Sweden is 75, all I can go by is Massachusetts which has finally revealed CV data (can't get national data). The median age of death is 82 (79 is the average life expectancy), and 98% of CV deaths had pre-existing conditions. What do we do with the information? What are the myriad of implications of destroying economies, both nationally and abroad?
What should we do?
1) Do nothing and cull the herd- it nature's course. They are the vulnerable. We all will die anyway. Protect our way of life. Get to herd immunity.
2) Lockdown now and when needed in the future, every life must be saved. Lives matter more than livelihood of the country.
This virus is uniquely targeting those with the weakest immune system. Is this good or bad? It is very good that it does not attack children. Healthy people under 50 have little chance of death from CV. Those within underlying health issues or are over 70 years old are in danger.
3) Is there a third choice- Do we need to quarantine everyone or just those at risk? I don't know and would like epidemiology and economic experts to talk about this. Can we save more lives this way looking at the big picture? Maybe, maybe not.
I’m 57 and in good health, and seriously believe I have a better chance of dying from the seasonal flu than COVID-19, and I don’t get a flu shot. Note- I have learned a lot about infectious diseases and will get a flu shot going forward, it ain’t about me.
You are "elderly". Knowledge come with education and experience, and experience is acquired through the years. Not sure what elderly means but if you are at risk, I very much want you protected, and furloughed with a job to go back to. Can we do that with all at-risk workers and older vulnerable people?
Your post should be read by all, as you outline three general courses of action and all have moral and economic arguments both for and against.
I don't feel "elderly," and never thought I'd be considering retirement a bit early. Fortunately, I do have a job where I can work from home and I'm pretty sure that my employer will encourage me to do so indefinitely. It will be up to me, though.
Do I want to be a "shut-in" forever? What do I do with the knowledge that average LE may be dropping? Next year, I think we'll see that people who have both flu and CoVid are in danger of dying. The median age for CoVid deaths will be known for sure, and it will be lower in the US than in, say, Sweden.
I too watch Sweden daily. They are getting a bit alarmed at their strategy of "no containment, herd immunity." I can understand why they're doing it this way, it's what human communities have done for centuries. If the median age at death in Sweden (a healthy nation) is around 79, then that means that all of us should strive to be as healthy as possible. This is a personal decision and it's one we should all be deciding upon.
So, I'll go for my walk today, I'll continue to try and eat properly, get lots of sleep (always a problem for me). I'd say that I'm a generally healthy but overweight 65 year old with a history of asthma - and blood clots. The blood clots were caused by a doctor who put me on an Rx (talked me into it, really) that has a known association with blood clots - but only 1 in 100,000 women had that reaction. I was one of them. So...am I really healthy?
Maybe not. My family sure thinks I should try to avoid getting CoVid, as for me, it would likely be more serious than the flu. I almost never get the flu, despite being in classrooms for years. I almost never get the flu shot either, but I will probably get one next year - as it may help with general immunity plus it's clear that people who get both CoVid and the flu are in a lot of distress and are very ill, whether they die or not.
I'm curious,
@The Night Watchman, how you're thinking about the next 10 years. In 10 years, you'll be "elderly." If you got CoVid between now and your 60th birthday, the chances of you surviving or even having mild symptoms are very high.
But if you don't - then do you ever think about what happens as your 67th birthday approaches? The rates of CV19 should be much lower by then. Or we'll have something of a vaccine. I have lots of friends, family and colleagues who are your age. Will our workplaces continue to support allowing 65+ people to work from home, etc? SSN doesn't kick in until around 67 for most of you.
I guess I'm asking to what degree your own longterm planning is affected by this pandemic (and the global economic chaos into which we are descending).
I think that for people your age, we need to reopen as sanely and softly as possible, but without a near-term reopening, people's health is going to be affected by more than just CoVid which, as you rightly point out, is probably not a very great threat to you.
You can imagine how even younger people are feeling - their whole lives disrupted, future opportunities cut short, for a disease that has little biological impact on them.
I’m not sure that I’d want my child in a classroom with a lot of kids anyway. There are no easy solutions, but I think safety protections need to be figured before opening schools. Because grocery store workers are essential, unfortunately they had to work without protection until their employers got up to speed. I just think we can wait a little longer and get it right for teachers and kids.
