Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #56

Discussion in 'Coronavirus - Covid-19' started by Amonet, Jan 17, 2020.

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  1. 10ofRods

    10ofRods Verified Anthropologist

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    Thank you!

    I hope you know that you (and other WSers of course) really make my day. Teaching from home is...isolating and of course, the community here is so much better informed than my students. I learn so much from WS every day, plus I get a chance to share ideas and thoughts that are definitely over the heads of my students.

    I am going to start sending my students to WS (this forum, actually) where they are supposed to observe (not contribute until I give them an okay). I want them to see how a discussion can actually work and how people can disagree but still discuss. I cleared this with Tricia yesterday.

    I look forward to your posts, too, Night Watchman. I feel as if I know you, and I guess we do know each other. Tricia encouraged me to use my sig line to say a bit more about my background, so I'm going to do that. I do have access to online resources that many do not, so I try to share - and I'm happy to research questions when I can. Unfortunately, I have now collected some 1000 links and articles and didn't do a good job categorizing them from the start, which I'm going to do this summer.

    This CoVid situation is moving so fast. My anthropologist friends and I are all fascinated, as we've obviously studied epidemics and pandemics throughout our careers, but never thought we'd actually live to see something like this (many of us are over 60, but I have to say our younger colleagues are incredibly amazing, as they know way more about RNA than I do, as I went to school too early to learn as much as I could have).
     


  2. 10ofRods

    10ofRods Verified Anthropologist

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    They are getting CoVid-induced pneumonia. Take a look at the Wiki I posted a few minutes ago. Viral pneumonias do not, AFAIK, have vaccines. Different kinds of strep-induced pneumonias do. They are not getting any form of previously known pneumonia. And this one is NOT bacterial (although it's possible to have more than one kind of pneumonia at a time).

    This is not strep pneumonia. This is CoVid pneumonia and it can be diagnosed on x-ray by the scary presence of "glass like structures" in the lungs. Some radiologists say "crystalline formations," but medical doctors are now having x-rays done in the ER and if someone has "ground glass" in their lungs - they have CoVid. It's the only known disease that is causing this kind of crystalline structure, which causes painful, terrible damage to the lungs.

    Try and imagine CoVid as causing crystals to grow in your lungs. No other pneumonia does that, at least so far as medical doctors know.

    How Lung Scans Can Detect Coronavirus in Some Patients

    And of course, you would then want to imagine your lungs NOT having such a thing.
     
  3. tresir2012

    tresir2012 Former Member

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    I just edited my post and added another article about CV19 patients presenting with both bacterial and viral pneumonia. I am also wondering if the children that are presenting with the Kawasaki like symptoms have had the pneumonia/meningitis vaccine that I linked. Those symptoms have reminded me of meningitis. MOO.

    This is another interesting article.

    COVID-19 deaths compared with “Swine Flu” - CEBM

    In this current pandemic, the age structure of those most affected reveals a tension between whether COVID-19 is operating more like a seasonal viral effect or is similar in its effect to previous pandemics

    “Swine Flu”

    The US Centre for Disease and Control Prevention (CDC) estimated that 150, 000 to 575,000 people died from (H1N1) pandemic virus infection in the first year of the outbreak.

    • 80% of the virus-related deaths were estimated to occur in those < 65 years of age.
    • In seasonal influenza epidemics, about 70% to 90% of deaths occur in people ≥65.
    Points later confirmed by the WHO:

    However, typical seasonal influenza causes most of its deaths among the elderly while other severe cases occur most commonly in people with a variety of medical conditions.

    By contrast, this H1N1 pandemic caused most of its severe or fatal disease in younger people, both those with chronic conditions as well as healthy persons, and caused many more cases of viral pneumonia than is normally seen with seasonal influenza.

    In a pandemic, the proportion of deaths among the young should increase (See here and here), and several studies have further demonstrated this age shift in deaths to younger populations. In a 1918 scenario, the major prevention strategies are to target younger people to minimize the loss to expected years of life. An analysis of three other pandemics over the last century also suggests pandemic viruses cause excess mortality in ‘unusually young populations.’

    COVID-19

    An analysis of countries and US states or major cities with at least 250 COVID-19 deaths as of 4th April reports that individuals aged <65 accounts for less than 10% of all COVID-19 deaths.

    • People <65 years old had 34- to 73-fold lower risk than those ≥65 years old in the European countries
    • People aged < 65 had 13- to 15-fold lower risk in New York City, Louisiana and Michigan.
    The WHO further stated that older people are at highest risk: over 95% of deaths occurred in those > 60 years. More than 50% of all deaths were people > 80 years or older.

    Conclusion

    The data support the theory that the current epidemic is a late seasonal effect in the Northern Hemisphere on the back of a mild ILI season. The age structure of those most affected does not fit the evidence from previous pandemics.

    The outbreak does, however, fit with the WHO’s definition of a Pandemic. This definition does not help explain the age structure of those most affected, and how this differs from that of seasonal outbreaks. The definition of a pandemic remains elusive.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2020
  4. dixiegirl1035

    dixiegirl1035 Well-Known Member

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    I just don't know. Folks here that follow WS have read that it is 1-5% of the population that are sociopaths (no empathy towards others) but I think this is a bigger number? (No slam to such, as many CEO's of major companies are such)

    Yet, many high functioning sociopaths that are heads of companies understand they need to rely on others and work with them? hmmmmm, guess need to add on to those that don't fall into that, yet have no consideration towards others or "I'm not going to do it, because an authority figure told me to".. without even listening or researching or trying to understand... even when they are following folks that explain (and many even agree with?)

    I can't figure it out.. as I can't figure out many cases and suspects we follow here at WS.
     
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  5. 10ofRods

    10ofRods Verified Anthropologist

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    OMG. I'm so sorry to hear about your immune system. It did behave well when you had viral meningitis, though. I wish I understood the immune system better, but I know that the early warning system is more faulty in some people, whereas the soldiers that get called in to the fight might have some memory of what they learned in previous battles.

    Your daughter's story is horrific. The doctor punctured her lung. Why in heck was he using a long needle?

    As you found out, there are very few treatments for viral infections - I don't know when this happened, but I'm guessing it was in the days before the fancy new antivirals (some of which may work against CoVid in conjunction with other treatments, like interferon).

    Interestingly, some patients who received corticosteroid shots early in the course of CoVid seem to be faring better, so if not allergic, something to keep in mind for all of us.
     
  6. anneg

    anneg Well-Known Member

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    @dixiegirl1035
    Replying to my own post -- regarding the 15 minutes of close contact issue.

    The viral and excellent blog post by Erin Bromage titled "The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them" includes a section ("Remember the formula: Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time") and this statement (BBM) further down in the section:

    "The exposure to virus x time formula is the basis of contact tracing. Anyone you spend greater than 10 minutes with in a face-to-face situation is potentially infected. Anyone who shares a space with you (say an office) for an extended period is potentially infected."

    It's best to read the whole article, IMO.

    Other sources I looked at are pretty vague about length of contact in transmission. Of course, as Prof. Bromage explains quite well, there are many other variables such as whether the infected person is coughing, sneezing, or speaking and whether the interaction occurs indoors or outdoors.
     
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  7. Trino

    Trino Well-Known Member

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    A real life 1918 flu pandemic story. What we could learn from this.

    Appalachian Training School (now ASU):

    When the flu hit in the fall of 1918, they locked all of the students in the school:
    "Training School News. . . The Training School has been isolated to prevent the spread of the 'Flu' in the School. All entrances to the Campus have been closed and students are not allowed to leave the school grounds and others are not allowed to enter." (Watauga Democrat 10/17/1918, p. 2).
    This pandemic was especially fierce amongst young, healthy people. All public schools were closed, as were Sunday Schools and churches. By the Christmas break, it was decided not to let the students return home--the break was only one week anyway! (Watauga Democrat 12/12/1918, p.3). Since "teachers" are mentioned here, one assumes that classes were still being held. Perhaps faculty were expected to stay on campus as well--in those days, most faculty lived either on campus or very close by anyway.
    By March 1919, students and teachers were allowed to go "up town at stated times" (Watauga Democrat 3/27/1919, p. 2) and in April the students were allowed to go home for the weekend. The influenza subsided over the summer but was severe enough in the 1919-1920 school year that the quarantine returned in February and March 1920.
    Did any students or teachers die of H1N1? One student died of typhoid, but there were no deaths reported in Watauga County into the spring of 1920.
    Source: Wataga History Hunters
     
  8. gitana1

    gitana1 Verified Attorney

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    <modsnip>

    I mean look at 9/11. The fear that caused created a domino-effect economic slide. And that was just air travel for the most part. So what is the effect of an unseen enemy on the world’s economy even if we never shut down at all? Even if 30% of the population refrain from booking trips, eating out, going to sporting events, music events, etc., we are facing devastation.

    But we do have a major problem in this country when people have to choose between health (their own and risking other’s) and paying the bills needed to survive. Other nations have been more successful in mitigating the damage in a way that enables their citizens to stay home and/or follow strict social distancing and hygiene rules, than we have. And as I’ve said before, economic instability leads to an urge to minimize and scoff at the very rules that would enable us to reopen more quickly and safely, like wearing masks, keeping apart from others, washing hands, etc.

    It’s crucial to minimize the threat in order to convince others that reopening is safe. And that means acting as if even basic safety guidelines are histrionic. That’s hurt us tremendously and will likely lead to a roller coaster of cases spiking and receding and shutdowns and reopenings.

    But on another note, a vaccine isn’t going to be the be-all, end-all. We have a significant population who are against vaccinations and even more who likely won’t trust a vaccine created for this, thinking that it’s too rushed to be safe, and in general not trusting our health care system. But vaccine efficacy relies on the majority being vaccinated. And this disease could be like the seasonal flu with a new vaccine needed every year.

    So we have to figure out a way to address this. How do we keep people safe but at the same time prevent more destruction of the economy?

    I think we need cohesive, honest leadership at all levels that isn’t partisan and isn’t divided into science and medicine on one side and the economy and freedom on the other. A comprehensive and logical education campaign that is fact-based rather than fear-based and takes ideology out of it would be something people can trust.

    I do think that the media hype has made people wary of safety measures we need to take. When people are being told they need to douse their groceries in bleach, wear hazmat suits to go outside, never leave the house, not socialize in any way except remotely, that we can catch it just from breathing the same air etc., eventually people stop listening.

    If instead we had serious, public campaigns about hand washing, strict laws that mandate hand washing of employees in businesses, face mask wearing mandatory in all businesses where it’s truly feasible and necessary (like grocery stores, Target, etc.) employees wearing face masks even when patrons can’t (like at restaurants), fining people for spitting or blowing snot in public (which I continue to see on public trails and paths, here in CA), and campaigns explaining why that’s so dangerous, even if others aren’t around, etc., plus effective social distancing guidelines, like one way trials or sidewalks, accurately spaced marks for checkouts or restaurants, shutting down businesses that fail to follow the rules (and allow patrons to pack in at the moment), we might be able to get a handle on this thing.

    As it stands, people are confused and leery and are making this disease and how to minimize contagion, ideological.

    Paid to Stay Home: Europe’s Safety Net Could Ease Toll of Coronavirus
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 14, 2020
  9. 10ofRods

    10ofRods Verified Anthropologist

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    I do think there's going to be seasonal effects (although poor Manhattan, with its skyscraper canyons - people are going to need to supplement Vitamin D3 OR get into one of the parks on occasion).

    Yes, a person can definitely have (and many CoVid patients do have) two kinds of pneumonia. Early on, people were getting big amounts of IV antibiotics, and some still are, but the CoVid pneumonia progresses to the point where it's destroying some people's lungs. It also attacks the part of the brain that controls breathing in some patients.

    So far, we're not seeing that "shift to the young" with CoVid, but it's early. It truly makes it hard for me to sleep if I start thinking about the risks being taken currently by the "we won't quarantine" group of people aged 18-40. Many have underlying conditions as @gitana1 pointed out. If CoVid, for whatever reason, starts to present in a more regularly symptomatic form, it's going to be terrible.

    That's why we need to stop it, as far as we can, while it's still in its current state and before it does any mutating that has significance to the younger population. As you can imagine, once inside someone's body, the virus has a field day mutating, so all those asymptomatic carriers are also petrie dishes for CoVid.

    OTOH, a lot of scientists think that the "seasonality" has many factors to it, including human behavior. Also, it's clear that humidity (higher) is better - in winter, colder places like New York are also drier. Urban New York just couldn't catch a break. Perfect storm. London has similar problems (people working in tall buildings, clouds, subways, other public transit, long commutes, packed trains, etc).

    Whereas, in California most people commute in cars. The per capita rates are higher on the SF Peninsula (but not in SF, interestingly - probably because the tall buildings are less common, almost no one commutes within SF by BART or train - it's the people coming in by train from across the Bay or down the Peninsula who are getting more CoVid).
     
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  10. tresir2012

    tresir2012 Former Member

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    Ok so based on the links I posted in my last two posts I am beginning to see why Hydrochloroqine and azythromycin (spelling?) might work if CV19 patients have bacterial pneumonia. It would not be correct to give the azythromycin for viral pneumonia because anti biotics don't work on viruses only bacteria IMO.
     
  11. Teche

    Teche Well-Known Member

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    Don’t know if the portable pool supply is better, but they were scarce 2 weeks ago.
     
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  12. 10ofRods

    10ofRods Verified Anthropologist

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  13. nhmemorymaker

    nhmemorymaker Well-Known Member

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    i think the point I am making is that there should be lots of needles in this haystack. And as mentioned, am hoping that any and some of them work. i just felt that so much stockpiling of one drug, to the detriment of those who need it for its main disease coverage, AND the amount of studies and test on the one drug was out of proportion. BUT if the hydrachloraquine has the best results than we all do win. Bill and Melinda Gates work "for the world" and that is very powerful in my mind. I feel they know more than most of us, and will always try to stay tuned to all their research and approaches to this pandemic. We don't even know what is going to be spreading in third world countries as time goes on...
     
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  14. tresir2012

    tresir2012 Former Member

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    That link I posted is saying Covid can come with either bacterial or viral pneumonia or both and it is difficult to know the difference in seriously ill patients. They seem to be still learning the best treatment based on what's happening in the field.
     
  15. nhmemorymaker

    nhmemorymaker Well-Known Member

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    i think the point I am making is that there should be lots of needles in this haystack. And as mentioned, am hoping that any and some of them work. i just felt that so much stockpiling of one drug, to the detriment of those who need it for its main disease coverage, AND the amount of studies and test on the one drug was out of proportion. BUT if the hydrachloraquine has the best results than we all do win. Bill and Melinda Gates work "for the world" and that is very powerful in my mind. I feel they know more than most of us, and will always try to stay tuned to all their research and approaches to this pandemic. We don't even know what is going to be spreading in third world countries as time goes on...
     
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  16. Teche

    Teche Well-Known Member

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    We are so fortunate to have you here with us. I appreciate the way you and others break down information to educate us. This is way better than my years of college. Thank you, thank you!
     
  17. tresir2012

    tresir2012 Former Member

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    It will protect against bacterial pneumonia which is one sort that CV patients can get based on the study I linked. I can get it when I get my flu jab in the autumn and it is a one off shot.
     
  18. tresir2012

    tresir2012 Former Member

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    I am really surprised at the numbers who died from Swine Flu. H1N1. Anyone recall that?

    2009 H1N1 Pandemic

    From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

    Disease Burden of the H1N1pdm09 Flu Virus, 2009-2018
    Since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the (H1N1)pdm09 flu virus has circulated seasonally in the U.S. causing significant illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths.

    More
    Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2020
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  19. anneg

    anneg Well-Known Member

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    Great post!! Thank you!
     
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  20. Sunny123

    Sunny123 Well-Known Member

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    I think that is a really good solution, and am going to suggest it to our HOA. MOO
     
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