Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #56

[katydid23]

May 13, 2020 - Health
High-risk states are seeing fewer new coronavirus cases
Coronavirus cases aren't surging in high-risk states


The first stages of reopening haven’t produced a surge in coronavirus cases in most states — at least, not yet.

Yes, but: The reopening process is still in its early stages, so a second wave of infections still remains distinctly possible.

Between the lines: Our chart compares each state's seven-day average of new cases from Monday, and the seven-day average from a week prior, May 4.

• Comparing the averages of two weeks helps smooth out a lot of the noise in how states sometimes inconsistently conduct and report tests.
• The latest average captures the first full week in which some states began to ease some of their lockdown measures.

Some of the states that skeptics were most worried about, including Florida and Georgia, haven’t seen the rise in total cases that some experts feared.

• Florida’s new cases have actually declined by 14% compared to the previous week, and Georgia’s fell by 12%.
• Nevada leads the pack with a 44% reduction, while several hard-hit states that embraced aggressive lockdowns to help contain early outbreaks — Michigan, New York and New Jersey — all saw reductions of at least 30%.

The other side: Cases are still increasing in other parts of the country. The most worrisome is South Dakota, which saw a startling 123% increase, likely the result of outbreaks in the meat processing industry.

• Total cases are an imperfect measure, in isolation, of an outbreak’s severity, because that count is limited by the amount of testing in each state, as well as differences in reporting.
  

 

[otto]

I agree that summer will dampen things, but this is very rarely discussed in reporting. In fact, reporting has typically been worded that a summer slowdown is not known, or there is no evidence that there will be one. I think that is because "they" want to keep people fearful and compliant as we try to work out of the current situation, which is not the worst thing at this point.

The good thing about a second wave is that we will be very much better prepared. Testing should be widespread and senior homes and vulnerable citizens will be sheltered. We all learned a lot.

I'm bouncing around in my head the idea that we might be better off with more infections now and likely higher immunity in the fall, due to the healthcare burden of the seasonal flu(s) and the potential severity of the second wave.

It's not discussed in Canada anymore either. It was mentioned early on, when the first local cases occurred. It was an honest, Minister of Health, overview of what may come. At that time, most people stayed indoors and waited for more information.

I think every country will continue to drop their guard in phases. In late June, I suspect many Northern Hemisphere countries will think they've got it beat, people have antibodies, there are 8 mutations and no strain is worse than another. All good.

I'm wondering whether the second wave in the Fall is a mutation that is not the same as the 8 strains we have today - something deadlier to a different population.

We won't just have children with heart disease, adults with ARDS and dead before their time old people. We might have dead 40 year olds, spending their last days face down hooked to a ventilator.

There is no evidence that herd immunity works. It didn't happen with SARS, and it wasn't studied in 1918. Anyone can claim that presumably people were immune in 1919, but we know that isn't how SARS was stopped.

 

[katydid23]

That's optimistic. Thankfully they've escaped the worst of the virus and can carry on as though the pandemic happens somewhere else, like watching a movie.

I don't think anyone is carrying on as if it's happening elsewhere, or as if they are watching a movie. I think people are just wanting to get back to work before they lose their homes and businesses.

Hubby and I have pensions, social security and retirement savings. So we can stay home and watch the pandemic play out, from the safety of our living room. But not everyone can do so.

I would have thought this was good news, that some of the reopenings are working out OK so far...right?

 

[The Night Watchman]

The federal mental health czar is calling for more money to expand services to help people suffering amid the social isolation imposed by the coronavirus pandemic, as a new study estimates related deaths from alcohol, drug overdose and suicide could reach 150,000.

The new study, released Friday by the Well Being Trust and the American Academy of Family Physicians, factored in isolation and uncertainty when it calculated the expected deaths from suicide, alcohol and drugs, based on nine unemployment scenarios.

The likely toll from these "deaths of despair" was the loss of an additional 75,000 lives, the study found. Death estimates ranged from 27,644 if the economy recovers quickly, to 154,037 if recovery is slow.

Well, thats it. I'm dying one way or another from this. IMO, these numbers are vastly overblown, but represents one of dozens of major collateral damages of the federal response.

One point often overlooked by many including me, is a lot of collateral damage is unavoidable as people naturally modify their behavior in response to what they hear/learn. For example, restaurants were in trouble regardless of a shutdown.

Now, pour me another...

Coronavirus: Pandemic boosts suicide, alcohol, drug death predictions

 

[The Night Watchman]

It's not discussed here anymore either. It was mentioned early on, when the first local cases occurred. It was an honest Minister of Health overview of what may come.

I think every country will continue to drop their guard in phases. In late June, I suspect many Northern Hemisphere countries will think they've got it beat, people have antibodies, there are 8 mutations and no strain is worse than another. All good.

I'm wondering whether the second wave in the Fall is a mutation that is not the same as the 8 strains we have today - something deadlier to a different population.

otto, whenever I start feeling optimistic about the future, you come along and crush my hopes.

 

[TJtennispro]

I live in Georgia. The warm weather is slowing this virus to a screeching halt. I’ve got two doctor friends that took 12 week jobs in New York. They told me the hospitals are running temperatures at 80 degrees Fahrenheit because it slows the spread of the virus. I posted that on this forum in March but a moderator deleted the post. Both doctors were sent home after 8 weeks because the cases had slowed and they weren’t needed.

I agree that summer will dampen things, but this is very rarely discussed in reporting. In fact, reporting has typically been worded that a summer slowdown is not known, or there is no evidence that there will be one. I think that is because "they" want to keep people fearful and compliant as we try to work out of the current situation, which is not the worst thing at this point.

The good thing about a second wave is that we will be very much better prepared. Testing should be widespread and senior homes and vulnerable citizens will be sheltered. We all learned a lot.

I'm bouncing around in my head the idea that we might be better off with more infections now and likely higher immunity in the fall, due to the healthcare burden of the seasonal flu(s) and the potential severity of the second wave.

 

[LadyL]

Is that the edible gold-leaf that chefs put on desserts?

possibly ... I didn't really read them because I wrote them off as quacks trying to sell magic potions

 

[MimosaMornings]

Coronavirus: Publix expands store hours

Publix returns to their pre- Covid hours.

 

[jjenny]

I live in Georgia. The warm weather is slowing this virus to a screeching halt. I’ve got two doctor friends that took 12 week jobs in New York. They told me the hospitals are running temperatures at 80 degrees Fahrenheit because it slows the spread of the virus. I posted that on this forum in March but a moderator deleted the post. Both doctors were sent home after 8 weeks because the cases had slowed and they weren’t needed.

And of course my state has the coldest weather in many years right now.

 

[JaneEyre]

The federal mental health czar is calling for more money to expand services to help people suffering amid the social isolation imposed by the coronavirus pandemic, as a new study estimates related deaths from alcohol, drug overdose and suicide could reach 150,000.

The new study, released Friday by the Well Being Trust and the American Academy of Family Physicians, factored in isolation and uncertainty when it calculated the expected deaths from suicide, alcohol and drugs, based on nine unemployment scenarios.

The likely toll from these "deaths of despair" was the loss of an additional 75,000 lives, the study found. Death estimates ranged from 27,644 if the economy recovers quickly, to 154,037 if recovery is slow.

Well, thats it. I'm dying one way or another from this. IMO, these numbers are vastly overblown, but represents one of dozens of major collateral damages of the federal response.

One point often overlooked by many including me, is a lot of collateral damage is unavoidable as people naturally modify their behavior in response to what they hear/learn. For example, restaurants were in trouble regardless of a shutdown.

Now, pour me another...

Coronavirus: Pandemic boosts suicide, alcohol, drug death predictions

I was talking to two friends today about this. We keep hearing that suicides have increased but we’re not seeing any numbers or stats supporting this assertion.

 

[Gardener1850]

Can a drug developed for sickle cell anemia mitigate lung damage in patients with COVID-19?

[...]

UC Davis Health researchers provided one of those repurposed drugs, senicapoc, to launch a clinical trial at Aarhus University in Denmark. The study will assess whether the drug can mitigate lung damage in patients with COVID-19.

Senicapoc was developed as a treatment for sickle cell anemia. Although it was found safe in clinical trials, it did not reduce the number of sickle-cell crises and was shelved.

John Olichney, the clinical core director for the UC Davis Alzheimer's Disease Center, Heike Wulff, a professor of pharmacology, and other UC Davis researchers have been evaluating senicapoc as a potential treatment for stroke and Alzheimer's disease.

"In the Alzheimer's research field, it is becoming more evident that the immune system often results in excess inflammation and certain cytokines that can interfere with the synapse and its memory functions," Olichney said.

Read more: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-drug-sickle-cell-anemia-mitigate.html

 

[Sundog]

Seems like a day late and a dollar short? And I still don't get the point of combining two drugs each of which has potential for cardiovascular side effects.

2,000 people across the U.S. will participate in the NIH clinical trial in Tony Fauci's division of the NIH. Patients will be positive for COVIDS-19, and over 60 years of age or have a co-morbidity.

 

[Trino]

I agree that summer will dampen things, but this is very rarely discussed in reporting. In fact, reporting has typically been worded that a summer slowdown is not known, or there is no evidence that there will be one. I think that is because "they" want to keep people fearful and compliant as we try to work out of the current situation, which is not the worst thing at this point.

The good thing about a second wave is that we will be very much better prepared. Testing should be widespread and senior homes and vulnerable citizens will be sheltered. We all learned a lot.

I'm bouncing around in my head the idea that we might be better off with more infections now and likely higher immunity in the fall, due to the healthcare burden of the seasonal flu(s) and the potential severity of the second wave.

Scientists do not yet know for certain whether the human body even develops immunity after an infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease COVID-19. And, if the body does become immune, there’s no evidence that shows how long immunity to the virus might last after recovery. Based on previous research into other coronaviruses (such as those that cause MERS and SARS), experts do believe it is likely that someone infected with COVID-19 will have some level of immunity after recovering from the illness, but the details are still very much unknown. Which is why, they say, it’s a terrible idea to purposefully expose yourself to infection.
'We Are a Long, Long Way Away' From Achieving Herd Immunity to COVID-19. Here's What Experts Say

 

[otto]

Maybe it's the hot weather down South. Although it's probably a bit early to see cases arising from opening up the state.

Maybe it's the change in temperature rather than warm temperature. Suppose the virus is spread across Canada in relatively small numbers and self-isolation reduces transmission in Spring and early Summer. It was 6 C earlier this week, it could be 23C next week and 30C the following week. Suppose the virus adapts and mutates for the colder Fall temperatures.

Suppose careful phasing to normal life builds false confidence that everything is in hand. Low numbers are maintained and managed through the Summer, and then the virus adapts to thrive in cooler temperatures. What if that virus binds with other viruses that currently require an annual vaccine?

 

[otto]

I don't think anyone is carrying on as if it's happening elsewhere, or as if they are watching a movie. I think people are just wanting to get back to work before they lose their homes and businesses.

Hubby and I have pensions, social security and retirement savings. So we can stay home and watch the pandemic play out, from the safety of our living room. But not everyone can do so.

I would have thought this was good news, that some of the reopenings are working out OK so far...right?

I don't understand "losing homes and businesses." Canada has provided funds based on need. Businesses and employees are protected.

Re-opening for economic reasons means sacrificing people's lives. Health versus Economics. That's the struggle around the world and first experienced by the WHO when they said "keep borders open" and "contain" even though the WHO knew this failed in China.

 

[mickey2942]

Coronavirus: Publix expands store hours

Publix returns to their pre- Covid hours.

Well, in Florida, "senior hour" is pretty much all day anyway. Maybe they should have had just 2 hours a day for everyone under age 60.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Seems like a day late and a dollar short? And I still don't get the point of combining two drugs each of which has potential for cardiovascular side effects.

I think the idea was that the two work together to create the desired effect (hopefully).

Kind of like if you are low on iron, you don't just take iron, but iron and vitamin C. The C enhances the absorption of the iron.

And if you need vitamin D, you don't just take vitamin D but D combined with K. Same thing, K helps make the D actually usable by the body.

IMO though I could google for links if needed.

 

[Sundog]

People are struggling to remember what day it is during self-isolation, study shows

 

[Ragnarok]

A friend posted on FB a picture of the sympathy card section of a local store. Dozens of empty slots. I know the local newspaper has had many more pages of obituaries than usual with some stating passing related to the virus or complications from it.

Orange County NY is still hot being 60 miles NW of NYC.

ArcGIS Dashboards

 

[Sundog]

American man poses as janitor to sneak into Germany and visit girlfriend, authorities say