Ebola outbreak - general thread #9

It had accumulated more than 395 mutations.

They mutate often in animals, from one animal to another. From modes of transmission in animals. indeed. This is where media gets it wrong and causes such a mess!

But there has never ever ever been a mutation in the human as far as transmison goes! A virus that impacts humans has never "switched" to another mode - (into airborne when it is not already.) Influenza, in humans was always airborne. HIV has never been.

That is the distinction.And ya have to admit it is a huge distincition!

There is a difference between replicating and mutating!

Should be comforting - in humans never changed from body fluids to airborne that is good news guys!

That isn't accurate. There isn't something special about human viruses that makes them unable to mutate.
Human viruses mutate all the time.
Ebola virus is mutating very rapidly.

"By comparing their data to the Guinean sequence data, Goba's team confirmed that Ebola was probably imported to Sierra Leone by 12 people who attended the funeral in Guinea, and that the West African outbreak originated in a single event in which the virus passed from an animal into a person. Further comparisons suggest that the virus that caused the outbreak separated from those that caused past Ebola outbreaks about 10 years ago. It had accumulated more than 395 mutations between that time and June, when the researchers collected the last samples included in today's analysis."

http://www.nature.com/news/ebola-virus-mutating-rapidly-as-it-spreads-1.15777
 
It's also interesting to me how many times I've read the words "this virus is mutating all the time!" As though that by virtue of mutating that means it is getting more dangerous. It really doesn't mean that at all.

Viruses mutate in so many ways that are meaningless with respect to virulence or effect on human population.

Also, viruses mutate to become less virulent. But for some reason, we never hear about that. I wonder why.

If Ebola becomes less virulent, it will be able to infect more people (as the victims will live longer). I am not sure what's good about that.
 
That isn't accurate. There isn't something special about human viruses that makes them unable to mutate.
Human viruses mutate all the time.
Ebola virus is mutating very rapidly.

"By comparing their data to the Guinean sequence data, Goba's team confirmed that Ebola was probably imported to Sierra Leone by 12 people who attended the funeral in Guinea, and that the West African outbreak originated in a single event in which the virus passed from an animal into a person. Further comparisons suggest that the virus that caused the outbreak separated from those that caused past Ebola outbreaks about 10 years ago. It had accumulated more than 395 mutations between that time and June, when the researchers collected the last samples included in today's analysis."

http://www.nature.com/news/ebola-virus-mutating-rapidly-as-it-spreads-1.15777

Here's the way I look at it. Forget these newly discovered viruses, and look at one that's been known for a few hundred years. Influenza. It's no slouch at mutating, either. It mutates so much that even though we become immune to a given strain after catching it, we're able to catch another strain, over and over during our lifetime.

Here's the good news. For all its mutating, it's never changed its nature enough to become airborne*. Now think about it. That's the bad news, too.

So, to translate my comments to be about ebola. I'm not worried that ebola will mutate to become airborne. However, I don't need to worry about that, in order to worry about its potential transmission.

*Yes, I mean it. Droplets, not airborne.
 
When it comes to viruses, it is always difficult to predict what they can or cannot do. It is instructive, however, to see what viruses have done in the past, and use that information to guide our thinking. Therefore we can ask: has any human virus ever changed its mode of transmission?


The answer is no. We have been studying viruses for over 100 years, and we’ve never seen a human virus change the way it is transmitted.


There is no reason to believe that Ebola virus is any different from any of the viruses that infect humans and have not changed the way that they are spread.


HIV-1 has infected millions of humans since the early 1900s. It is still transmitted among humans by introduction of the virus into the body by sex, contaminated needles, or during childbirth.


Hepatitis C virus has infected millions of humans since its discovery in the 1980s. It is still transmitted among humans by introduction of the virus into the body by contaminated needles, blood, and during birth.

http://www.virology.ws/2014/09/18/what-we-are-not-afraid-to-say-about-ebola-virus/
 
It mutates so much that even though we become immune to a given strain after catching it, we're able to catch another strain, over and over during our lifetime.

The problem IMO has been the media has not made the distinction crystal clear. There different strains - but all keep , in humans, the mode of trnamission

There are different Ebola strains out there now - in humans they have always been tranmitted by fluid contact


Ebola-Sudan) ......., the second Ebola virus emerged from Yambuku, Zaire, Ebola-Zaire (EBOZ). EBOZ, with the highest mortality rate of any of the Ebola viruses (88%), infected 318 people.

. The third strain of Ebola, Ebola Reston (EBOR), was first identified in 1989

The last known strain of Ebola, Ebola Cote d'Ivoire (EBO-CI) was discovered in 1994 when a female ethologist performing a necropsy on a dead chimpanzee from the Tai Forest, Cote d'Ivoire, accidentally infected herself during the necropsy.

https://web.stanford.edu/group/virus/filo/history.html
 
Neat post !

Actually, back in August I brainstormed the degree of personal concern I'd feel at each stage of this outbreak. (As opposed to a more general concern for the suffering of Africa.)

I felt cheerfully unconcerned about any danger from the people they were bringing back for treatment.

First stage of concern was going to be when someone came back from Africa, not knowing that they had been infected with it, and had to be diagnosed from scratch. That was Duncan.

Second stage of concern was going to be when someone who hadn't left this country caught it here. That was Nina Pham.

Third stage of concern: if it showed any signs of spreading beyond the initial realization that there's a problem. That was Nina Pham and Amber Vinson--by golly, I wasn't expecting us to let medical personnel catch it from a patient known to have it! But, it starts to look as though we've got our act back together. And also, the fact that Duncan's hosts didn't catch it was immensely reassuring, and surprising. So, I've cooled back to second stage of concern.

Fourth stage of concern: if anyone in this country gets it and they can't figure out the source of the infection.

Fifth stage of concern: if so many people catch it that figuring out the source of the infection is hopeless or pointless.

Sixth stage of concern, aka red alert: if the fourth or fifth stage is happening in my county, or if someone I know is under quarantine.

I expected the first and second stages to happen. I expected the third to happen, but maybe it won't, if we get serious about disease control. I really don't expect the fourth and fifth to happen.

Anyone else want to comment on their feelings?
 
1 - Magic number is "when you try to penalize ME because you are scared of something that can't hurt you"
2 - When your irrational and baseless fear tries to strip away freedom, then that's when anyone has the right to tell you to get over it <modsnip>.

Um, that wasn't what she asked.
 
So I realize I'm just a lay person. But I have children, I am a teacher, I have family members who are in the medical profession.... so I believe my concerns are legitimate.

Looking at the two "camps" who've been posting tonight. One side thinks we're alarmists, uninformed, etc. whatever "nice" adjectives you want to use. My side thinks we need to take precautions (quarantine) and that the nurse's actions and attitude are setting dangerous precedents for the future.

One side is wrong. If we are wrong - what might happen? Hundreds of people will be inconvenienced for *days*. BUT if the other side is wrong - people could die - lots of people. Of course to me it seems very black and white but I'm sure the other side feels the same way about their position.

I agree with an earlier poster tonight that everyone seems pretty locked into their opinions. It's getting late - so sleep well and stay well everyone!
 
And for those that think this is all about spreading fear, I have two questions:
What is the magic number that fear is "acceptable" by them to commence--is it somewhere between the 50 million deaths due to the Black Plague or the 4 deaths in the USA from Ebola? What's their magic number?

And second, who holds the honor of telling anyone when to be afraid?

For me, I don't think there is a magic number. But certainly, when something reaches "plague" status and/or has the potential to do so, taking immediate, radical measures to deal with the crisis is necessary. But when is fear legitimate? Does the presence of a "plague" so to speak (using the term colloquially, not scientifically) or the potential for one justify serious fear?

One would think, "of course!". But it is more complex than that.

For me the deciding factor is whether a disease is or has the potential of creating an epidemic or pandemic. Ebola is an epidemic. A lethal and scary one but one generally limited to highly populated countries that have poor, third world sanitation practices, including how they handle their dead and their toileting needs, etc.., and the only people who are truly at high risk are those who live in such countries that are affected by the disease, and the people who care for those stricken with the disease in a manner that involves repeated and heavy contact with bodily fluids.

Ebola will not become a pandemic, it appears clear, because many countries are not third world nations with poor sanitation and high populations and most countries have become educated - including poor, highly populated nations with limited sanitation - at containing and e5radicting the disease before it even becomes an epidemic.

Finally, I think those that hold the "honor" of telling the rest of us whether or not we have justifiable fears, are the experts and those with a higher capacity to understand and apply logic, to be frank.

But people have a right to feel and express the emotions they have. My concern arises when hysteria and illogical panic leads to violations of the rights of others or spreading that panic to others. This has happened repeatedly throughout history. Examples?

1. The Salem witch trials. Hysteria caused otherwise thinking people to accuse and violate the rights of others, to the point of torture and death.
2. The AIDS hysteria. There were repeated, strident calls for quarantining people with AIDS, solely due to unfounded panic. (What happened to that desire, by the way?) http://articles.latimes.com/1989-07-09/opinion/op-5130_1_criminal-law/2
3. Japanese internment - also due to widespread, unfounded panic about Japanese Americans.
4. The Satanic cult hysteria of the 80's and 90's that led to many innocent people being imprisoned for crimes they did not commit.The dangers were imaginary, but the consequences were not. http://www.slate.com/articles/healt...the_last_victims_of_satanic_ritual_abuse.html
4. The SARS hysteria. Across the nation, anxiety and fear, generated by the news about the invisible and indeterminate contagion of the epidemic, were visible on the streets and corners of Chinatown communities in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia as well as in Boston and New York. Restaurants lost their clientele, and tourists stayed shy of the districts. Wedding banquets were cancelled, and the crowded Chinatown streets suddenly appeared deserted (Hopkins). As David Baltimore, a Nobel laureate, commented in The Wall Street Journal on April 28, &#8220;Just as the media recently gave us a . . . particularly intimate experience of war, we&#8217;re now getting a new and particularly fearsome experience of a public-health crisis with SARS &#8211; in which a media-transmitted epidemic of concern for personal safety outpaces the risk to public health of the actual virus&#8221; http://www.americanpopularculture.com/journal/articles/spring_2005/zheng.htm
"SARS hysteria" has left a group of more than 30 Australians confined to a youth hostel in India, while two others are under observation in hospital.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2003-05-04/30-aussies-quarantined-in-sars-hysteria/1848272

There are so many examples of when fear overrides logic and has serious consequences.

I believe that we have a culture of fear in the United States and I think that's what is supporting the Ebola panic at present in America:
Glassner revised his book in 2010 and added a longer subtitle: "Why Americans Are Afraid of the Wrong Things: Crime, Drugs, Minorities, Teen Moms, Killer Kids, Mutant Microbes, Plane Crashes, Road Rage & So Much More" Glassner, formerly the executive vice provost at the University of Southern California, has earned a reputation as a rational critic of dire news -- whether it arises in media, political or popular circles. He says three out of four Americans report that they're more afraid now than they were 20 years ago, and he's kept track of how those fears have ebbed and flowed. http://www.oregonlive.com/living/index.ssf/2012/01/barry_glassner_calls_on_americ.html

The dangers of modern life have a stranglehold on people&#8217;s imaginations. Sociologists call the phenomenon risk society, describing cultures increasingly preoccupied with threats to safety, both real and perceived. And while the human species is prone to miscalculating risk, there&#8217;s more at work here than frazzled modern nerves: Americans are fearful. Truly fearful. When they&#8217;re asked, a majority say with certainty that the world is more dangerous than ever before. Even in the face of evidence that negates this misperception, there is no relief. We lock our doors, say our prayers, and still can&#8217;t get to sleep.
For the first time in history, fear is tearing society apart.

http://www.utne.com/politics/overco...e-on-eve-of-new-presidency.aspx#ixzz3Hgr2l59R

I want to reject that culture. As a person who has struggled with anxiety disorders my whole life, I understand the impact and danger of unfounded fears.

So yeah, no one has a right to tell others how to feel. But public policy should not be founded on hysteria and panic.

This is not what I feel the situation is, although the media would like us to believe so:

brockman_hours_to_live-579x400.jpg
http://thedailybanter.com/2014/10/unforgivable-hysteria-american-news-medias-ebola-coverage/
 
http://www.okcfox.com/story/27171285/tulsa-patient-monitored-for-ebola-like-symptoms
Tulsa patient monitored for Ebola like symptoms
Posted: Oct 30, 2014 9:53 PM CDT - Updated: Oct 30, 2014 10:13 PM CDT - By: Heather Browne, Executive Producer
Health officials in Tulsa confirm they are monitoring a patient for possible Ebola symptoms. They say the case is unconfirmed. Tulsa County health department sent out a news release late Thursday stating the patient had traveled from West Africa, but that the patient was considered low-risk, meaning that they did not provide care for, or have direct contact with, anyone known to be infected with the Ebola virus. However, the health department stressed that the patient was within a required 21-day monitoring period. The person developed a fever Thursday night, and was taken to OSU Medical Center in downtown Tulsa, where the patient is being isolated and monitored until tests come back.
 
I dont think its right or wrong. If you notice what happened here is that most had no issues with the system taking precautions when the individual tested positive.

IMo however intense repsonses were devopled when a citizen of us was thrown in a tent- after testing negative.IZf they are foing to do that depite negative why not put her in a room. The fact that she then spoke up, articualtly imo, added to the discussion!

The truth be told a lot of this is about elections and that is repulive.

But at the end of the day, she was correct - there are not going to do anything to her--just like NJ when the story was provided govt officials were told by there law folks you are treading on very thin ice here - back off - we dont have a case.

As a society we do not take freedoms away cause something might happen- just does not sit well IMO.

She did great - she stood up for her cival liberties , and won. I am sure she had no plans on going to a concert!

Healthy Americans are permitted to go for a bike ride wiht there bfriend!

IMO if she did not do what she did, the precident THAT would have created is truly scary - it was three people, whose job is to fund putting down pavement in places making medical and societal choices for many.

I am thrilled it played out the way it did - she is a hero not only for what she did over there , but for what she did here to protect her cival liberties and not be stomped by three beurocratcs -

he backed off in 12 hours in NJ -- there are reasons for that IMO!

Frankly, I hope she continues not for money (IMO not her motivation at all) she was just stunned at what was happening, how it was happening, and that none knew what they were doing

imagine being put in jail and watching all the people outside running around in circles clueless about what will happen next

thats a scary sitution on many levels

You go girl!!!!!

So I realize I'm just a lay person. But I have children, I am a teacher, I have family members who are in the medical profession.... so I believe my concerns are legitimate.

Looking at the two "camps" who've been posting tonight. One side thinks we're alarmists, uninformed, etc. whatever "nice" adjectives you want to use. My side thinks we need to take precautions (quarantine) and that the nurse's actions and attitude are setting dangerous precedents for the future.

One side is wrong. If we are wrong - what might happen? Hundreds of people will be inconvenienced for *days*. BUT if the other side is wrong - people could die - lots of people. Of course to me it seems very black and white but I'm sure the other side feels the same way about their position.

I agree with an earlier poster tonight that everyone seems pretty locked into their opinions. It's getting late - so sleep well and stay well everyone!
 
I'm in Tulsa. Did anyone hear that someone here was being monitored? Didn't tell us until tonight when the person developed a fever.
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/health/tulsa-health-department-monitoring-recent-traveler-for-ebola-virus/article_aa6bc4ea-1143-597f-ac4d-c59737fe67b9.html
Tulsa Health Department monitoring recent traveler for Ebola virus
Posted: Thursday, October 30, 2014 8:21 pm | Updated: 10:47 pm, Thu Oct 30, 2014.
By SAMANTHA VICENT World Staff Writer
The Oklahoma State Department of Health earlier this week implemented a post-arrival Ebola virus monitoring protocol, and the individual — who is classified as "low risk" — traveled to either Guinea, Liberia or Sierra Leone within the past 21 days but didn't have any known exposure to the virus, the Tulsa City-County Health Department reported.
The individual informed health officials late this evening that they had developed a fever. THD officials immediately implemented an isolation and evaluation plan in conjunction with the Regional Medical Response System following appropriate protocols to limit exposure."
 
Terrific post git! Nicely done! I had no idea how many times in history we had done this - ty for teaching me!


For me, I don't think there is a magic number. But certainly, when something reaches "plague" status and/or has the potential to do so, taking immediate, radical measures to deal with the crisis is necessary. But when is fear legitimate? Does the presence of a "plague" so to speak (using the term colloquially, not scientifically) or the potential for one justify serious fear?

One would think, "of course!". But it is more complex than that.

For me the deciding factor is whether a disease is or has the potential of creating an epidemic or pandemic. Ebola is an epidemic. A lethal and scary one but one generally limited to highly populated countries that have poor, third world sanitation practices, including how they handle their dead and their toileting needs, etc.., and the only people who are truly at high risk are those who live in such countries that are affected by the disease, and the people who care for those stricken with the disease in a manner that involves repeated and heavy contact with bodily fluids.

Ebola will not become a pandemic, it appears clear, because many countries are not third world nations with poor sanitation and high populations and most countries have become educated - including poor, highly populated nations with limited sanitation - at containing and e5radicting the disease before it even becomes an epidemic.

Finally, I think those that hold the "honor" of telling the rest of us whether or not we have justifiable fears, are the experts and those with a higher capacity to understand and apply logic, to be frank.

But people have a right to feel and express the emotions they have. My concern arises when hysteria and illogical panic leads to violations of the rights of others or spreading that panic to others. This has happened repeatedly throughout history. Examples?

1. The Salem witch trials. Hysteria caused otherwise thinking people to accuse and violate the rights of others, to the point of torture and death.
2. The AIDS hysteria. There were repeated, strident calls for quarantining people with AIDS, solely due to unfounded panic. (What happened to that desire, by the way?) http://articles.latimes.com/1989-07-09/opinion/op-5130_1_criminal-law/2
3. Japanese internment - also due to widespread, unfounded panic about Japanese Americans.
4. The Satanic cult hysteria of the 80's and 90's that led to many innocent people being imprisoned for crimes they did not commit.The dangers were imaginary, but the consequences were not. http://www.slate.com/articles/healt...the_last_victims_of_satanic_ritual_abuse.html
4. The SARS hysteria. Across the nation, anxiety and fear, generated by the news about the invisible and indeterminate contagion of the epidemic, were visible on the streets and corners of Chinatown communities in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia as well as in Boston and New York. Restaurants lost their clientele, and tourists stayed shy of the districts. Wedding banquets were cancelled, and the crowded Chinatown streets suddenly appeared deserted (Hopkins). As David Baltimore, a Nobel laureate, commented in The Wall Street Journal on April 28, &#8220;Just as the media recently gave us a . . . particularly intimate experience of war, we&#8217;re now getting a new and particularly fearsome experience of a public-health crisis with SARS &#8211; in which a media-transmitted epidemic of concern for personal safety outpaces the risk to public health of the actual virus&#8221; http://www.americanpopularculture.com/journal/articles/spring_2005/zheng.htm
"SARS hysteria" has left a group of more than 30 Australians confined to a youth hostel in India, while two others are under observation in hospital.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2003-05-04/30-aussies-quarantined-in-sars-hysteria/1848272

There are so many examples of when fear overrides logic and has serious consequences.

I believe that we have a culture of fear in the United States and I think that's what is supporting the Ebola panic at present in America:

I want to reject that culture. As a person who has struggled with anxiety disorders my whole life, I understand the impact and danger of unfounded fears.

So yeah, no one has a right to tell others how to feel. But public policy should not be founded on hysteria and panic.

This is not what I feel the situation is, although the media would like us to believe so:

View attachment 62467
http://thedailybanter.com/2014/10/unforgivable-hysteria-american-news-medias-ebola-coverage/
 
I'm in Tulsa. Did anyone hear that someone here was being monitored? Didn't tell us until tonight when the person developed a fever.
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/health/tulsa-health-department-monitoring-recent-traveler-for-ebola-virus/article_aa6bc4ea-1143-597f-ac4d-c59737fe67b9.html
Tulsa Health Department monitoring recent traveler for Ebola virus
Posted: Thursday, October 30, 2014 8:21 pm | Updated: 10:47 pm, Thu Oct 30, 2014.
By SAMANTHA VICENT World Staff Writer
I'm from Coweta and saw the reports cross my Facebook page...I hope it isn't Ebola.
 
I still don't know why no one is freaking out over the rutland vt man who went over there posing as a dr...had no ppe, no direction from people who know what to do, said he time travels, and has said that he predicted 9/11, the shuttle explosion?(he was there!), and is now quarantined in a secure VERY RURAL area....with no police presence(according to him). Are there more of him? Read the nyt article I'm going to link...all the way to the bottom, pretty sure this is the dude they are talking about: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/27/nyregion/as-states-look-to-halt-ebola-restrictions-prompt-a-debate.html. Now that to me is scary.
 
"I think what we're seeing is a catastrophic health crisis in West Africa, and an epidemic of fear here," Fauci said. "I don't disrespect that fear, and I don't criticize it. But you've got to evaluate your risk and relative risk based on scientific evidence."
I think some good thoughts here:

But whether overblown or entirely too mild, fear is a factor public health officials have to consider as part of the job of responding to disease. "You have to respect the fear of people," Fauci said. "You can't denigrate it and say, 'Why are you afraid?' You've got to try and explain to them."
http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...ic-of-fear-ebola-in-the-united-states/382158/

And for those that think this is all about spreading fear, I have two questions:
What is the magic number that fear is "acceptable" by them to commence--is it somewhere between the 50 million deaths due to the Black Plague or the 4 deaths in the USA from Ebola? What's their magic number?

And second, who holds the honor of telling anyone when to be afraid?

Oh, I wanted to ask something regarding your post: You stated 4 deaths here in the US. Did you mean 4 cases and 1 death? I wanted to clarify!
 
"Some health care professional expressed concern about why Dr Spencer did not seek treatment earlier as they felt that he was significantly ill. "A health care worker at the hospital said that Dr. Spencer seemed very sick, and it was unclear to the medical staff why he had not gone to the hospital earlier, since his fever was high." http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/ny...city.html?_r=0


This health care person does not have accurate info. His fever was initially transcribed wrong. It was 100.3 not 103. I don't know who this source is. No offense to anyone but it sounds like it was a student training to be a CNA. He/she doesn't know what they're talking about.
 
Yes, either way they want them quarantined.
"82% in poll favor quarantine."

When a person has a medical question they don't go to a doctor any more? They ask around, take a poll and take what ever treatment strangers with opinions say?
 
So now we are equating a woman who has NEVER exhibited a symptom, who cannot infect anyone, and who has NEVER infected anyone ever, with a woman who had infected many ...and the suggestion is that we should treat both the same?

<modsnip> The ladies are polar opposites. Kaci has no symptoms, has been tested when asked (twice), and has been monitored (and is self-monitoring). There's been no suggestion that she wouldn't run straight to the hospital if she showed symptoms.


The ladies are definitely opposites. Typhoid is spread by not washing hands, poor hygiene. Ever nurse I know washes her/his hands 100 times a day. They usually have red, dry irritated hands from scrubbing them clean so often.

This cook was not educated. KC has no plans as far as I know to become a chef in households unless she changed professions and I missed the news.
 

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