Experimental Approach: Apply a Methodology to Compile & Analyze Capsules of Data

Discussion in 'Haleigh Cummings' started by bessie, Aug 26, 2010.

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  1. bessie

    bessie Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    I've pieced together a timeline of events regarding the gun based on the few facts I've derived from the disjointed Cobra tapes. I've further verified as many details as possible with supporting statments from other sources. Note: My findings are not 100% conclusive. They do, however, form a fairly plausible timeline of events. Now I'd like us to debunk it.

    This is my interpretation of this gun business, fwiw

    1. Joe steals Ron's gun three days after his arrival in Satsuma
    2. Ron confronts him shortly afterward; big argument at Hank, Sr.'s house
    3. Ron has an idea that it might be in the culvert and tells Misty to look there
    4. Chelsea and Misty find the gun in the culvert and return it to Ron
    5. Ron cleans it and hides it in his room in the MH
    6. A few days before Haleigh's disappearance, he walks around the corner to Tyler and sees Joe's gf looking in the culvert because Joe thought the gun was still there.
    7. GF goes back to Orlando because Joe wants to stick around Satsuma a little longer until he can find the gun
    8. Ron knows Joe will come looking for it, so he removes all of the guns from the MH
    9. Joe does go to the MH to look for the gun on Monday when he knows Ron is at work
    10. An altercation ensues
    11. Haleigh dies later that night as the result of a possibly unrelated incident
    If we address one point at a time, eventually we can compile our information and from that compilation formulate a viable conclusion.

    For example, if you agree or disagree with item 2, type: Item 2: I don't think Joe stole Ron's gun because...;

    or conversely, if you believe Joe did steal Ron's gun, you'd type;
    Item 2: I'm convinced Joe stole the gun because...

    • Include as many details as necessary to support your argument but avoid spilling over into another topic.
    • Answer as many line items as you wish. But, again, make your best effort to limit your explanations to the topic of the line item in question.
    • Add any relevant points that have been omitted
    • Limit your opinions to those based on facts; or reasonable speculation, a conclusion supported by verifiable facts
    Rahter than have our thoughts scattered all over the place, they would be compiled under one worksheet, if you will, and the answers subsequently compiled and analyzed for weight and merit. Ideally, we'll recruit an objective third party to perform the analysis.

    If this model works, we could apply it to other aspects of the case. It would eliminate the constant rehashing and a lot of head banging. That's not to say members, especially new members can not bring up a previous topic. But rather than starting from scratch, we'd have a foundation to keep the speculation grounded.

    Often members have opinions about one aspect of a situation, but are not sure about the others, so they hesitate to post for fear of being challenged about what they don't know. This way, those members can pick and choose the topics they are comfortable commenting about.

    I hope the mods will approve this model and I encourage members to participate. If it flops, eh, nothing gained, nothing lost. :)
     
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  3. Kimster

    Kimster Former Member

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    :bow:
     
  4. bessie

    bessie Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    moved from another thread to start things off.
     
  5. justus4all

    justus4all New Member

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    OK here goes....

    Regarding your item 8 and 9...

    Item 8...Ron knows Joe will come looking for it, so he removes all of the guns from the MH

    Item 9..Joe does go to the MH to look for the gun on Monday when he knows Ron is at work.

    My question is....HOW does Ron EXPECT Joe to GET INSIDE his home??? Break down the doors????...Break out a window???..If Ron had instructed/warned Misty..NOT TO LET Joe in.........Surely the neighbors would have heard doors/windows being shattered..of a break in...Didn't the LE say there was no evidence of the doors or windows being broken..???IMO....Ron removed all his guns from the MH..right after Haleigh was shot at Hank Sr house....which brings me to Item 2 on your list..

    Item 2.Ron confronts him shortly afterward; big argument at Hank, Sr.'s house
    I am not sure, (not enough info..) if Joe was at Hank Sr's house..and was involved/a part of/witnessed..the injury to Haleigh there.

    It could have been..(again..IMHO)..Misty, Tommy, Ron..and maybe Joe was at Hank Sr,s house partying..(after Haleigh was picked up from the bus stop by Misty)..and Haleigh was injured/shot/killed there at the house..NOT on Green lane..all in my own opinion

    Hope this helps..

    WHOOPS!!! I see you brought this over from another thread...thanks
     
  6. passionflower

    passionflower Just 1 tip to find a killer

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    Excellent
     
  7. bessie

    bessie Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    Item 2: I believe a fight over the gun did take place at Hank Sr's house before his accident while he was still a pretty threatening figure. Ron says this to Cobra in the tape. Also, Hank, Sr. alluded to an incident at his house with Joe in one of the May jailhouse tapes with Tommy.
     
  8. bessie

    bessie Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    Item 3: Ron has an idea the gun is in the culvert and sends Misty to look there.

    If Ron is to believed in the Cobra tapes, he implies that he figured out that's where a "criminal" like Joe would hide a gun. I don't know if Ron is that clever, but Misty did say that Ron told her to look in the culvert, and sure enough, the gun was there.
     
  9. kant

    kant New Member

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    First, cool idea on the thread as a whole.

    Second, (color & BBM) good point; and additionally, this below also pertains to your points/post. For me, I've found the following to be a bit of a dilemma; The specific example occurred on another board, but I use it here merely to illustrate what happened (....bc it has a way of squelching healthy discussion and it can apply to message forums in general.)

    It's this;

    There are times when I want to ask something or make a point, but in doing so I need to refer to something that someone in the case (Cummings, Croslins etc) said or did and from my reading of the forum I know that this something has been discussed numerous times with links supplied upon initial discussion as verification; so from previous links supplied, the aforementioned something is rendered kind of common knowledge of sorts.

    But since I dont have the link handy to copy and paste in my post and I dont have the time (or fortitude) to sift thru pages of threads looking for where the link is posted, I just bow out and say nothing.

    The annoying part in the other instance was that this was used to silence folks with whom posters disgreed. Iow, (this is an extreme example only for illustration, but Im using it to explain the position) if I happened to post, let's hypothetically say, "Haleigh Cummings disappeared on Feb 10, 2009" and then I go on to make some point or state an opinion - whatever it is - someone (no one here -- Im just describing my hesitations in reference to your excellent point above on the fear of being challenged) anyway, someone - who typically didnt like my view - would chime in with, "Where's the link?" So rather than go on a protracted link hunt, I'd just delete it, say nothing, and log off.

    Dont get me wrong, Im all in favor of providing links and I'd say that I always, or almost always, do click the links and read them; and additionally I gladly provide them when sharing new information.

    I dont know how to solve this; I just wanted to add it to your point... in the what-causes-hesitation-and-discourages-participation department. :)

    Great thread idea.

    :woohoo:
     
  10. Emeralgem

    Emeralgem New Member

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    7. GF goes back to Orlando because Joe wants to stick around Satsuma a little longer until he can find the gun

    Item 7 I don't agree . We have absolutely no proof gf was in Satsuma to pick up Jo and he wanted to stay longer to get the gun.. Shawn Sirgo stated Jo and friend were scheduled to leave on the 10th..And those plans were made before they ever went down there...
     
  11. kant

    kant New Member

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    Early on, before Ron and TN had properly coordinated their stories, TN had been on TV discussing Ron... and the gun.... and the fight. Next, (different day) Ron was on some show - I want to say it was Nancy Stripper Pole! Mini skirts! Expensive bottled water! Elaborate cheese treats! (aka cheetos) Grace, but anyway, Ron vehemently denied any gun and any fight (me thinks thou doth...) and he added, "I dont know where you people get these crazy ideas from."

    Well.. um... from your mom, for starters, dude.
     
  12. dodie20

    dodie20 New Member

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    #9-10. gmaw Flo said Misty was in on the theft plot, & on this I believe her. Misty had just gotten back home, she & Ron were fighting, she was probably still mad at him, & was in the mood to rally with family & get back at him. While she was gone, Ron hid his guns without her knowledge, so she was stuck explaining to Tommy & Joe, that they had been outsmarted. Maybe they thought she was lieing for Ron? an altercation ensued. But Tommy saying that Ron called him looking for Misty, makes me think the gun fight had already happened. & either the disposal was already complete, (why else would he be home to take the call?), or Tommy, after the call, went back to the trailer, found Misty gone, & that's when Haleigh was taken. Because if the fight & the assault on Haleigh had both happened earlier, why was there so much commotion, late at night? maybe Tommy is now claiming that Haleigh actually died earlier, in an attempt to cover him going back alone? Maybe evidence exist that the fight happened early,so he has to put Haleigh's death at the early time too. IDK, I'll think about this, so I can organize where my mind is going. But, there have to be reasons, that Tommy keeps changing his stories.
     
  13. dodie20

    dodie20 New Member

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    Tommy claims that he was there when the fight & then murder went down, & that he was forced to go to the disposal. He claimed that Ron called him, looking for Misty, & I think Ron has verified this call. Tommy is now claiming that Haleigh died earlier in th night. So...there must be evidence refuting his earlier claims. Maybe he & Joe were witnessed outside the trailer at an early time, (so fight time has been moved up), but only Tommy was witnessed at the trailer at a later time? & he's looking to verify that he wasn't there by himself, for Haleigh purposes, by saying that Haleigh was already dead. Actually, I need to go read the report, (something I was dreading), of Haleigh being dead earlier.
     
  14. Concerned Papa

    Concerned Papa New Member

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  15. Concerned Papa

    Concerned Papa New Member

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    3. Ron has an idea that it might be in the culvert and tells Misty to look there

    4. Chelsea and Misty find the gun in the culvert and return it to Ron

    Yep, that's exactly the story Misty told in another one of her failed tests as to her truthfulness. Problem is Ronald says:

    " I went straight down to the ditch…got my s*** right out of the culvert…"
     
  16. Donjeta

    Donjeta Adji Desir, missing from Florida

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    Is there any reason that RC would have found his gun in the culvert (or some other place) and taken it, then thought better of it and gone to hide it again, preferring to have witnesses for that gun being in that culvert?

    Say, if he knew or suspected that a crime had been committed with it he might have liked to have someone who was able to say that the gun was out of his possession for a while, anyone could have used it and put it in the culvert.
     
  17. lonetraveler

    lonetraveler Well-Known Member

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    My margins are so blown on this thread I'm getting crossed eyed moving the screen back and forth. I can't minimize anymore or I will have to get my binoculars out.
     
  18. Concerned Papa

    Concerned Papa New Member

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    6. A few days before Haleigh's disappearance, he walks around the corner to Tyler and sees Joe's gf looking in the culvert because Joe thought the gun was still there.

    From almost THREE football fields away? Good eyes, Ronald!
     

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  19. Concerned Papa

    Concerned Papa New Member

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    6. A few days before Haleigh's disappearance, he walks around the corner to Tyler and sees Joe's gf looking in the culvert because Joe thought the gun was still there.

    So in other words, Ronald thought the one who hid the gun told her where to look?

    How very odd! That's EXACTLY what I thought when I first heard #'s 3 and 4 on this list! LOL
     
  20. dodie20

    dodie20 New Member

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    maybe when Ron went to work, he hid his guns in his car? & when he got back home, he had them with him? But if my suspicion is true, & Ron left work early, to clean house, I would guess that's when he took the guns. But what about Misty's claim that her gun was gone, so she couldn't shoot Joe? just a lie, to bolster her claims of defenselessness? IDK.
     
  21. bessie

    bessie Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    Thanks to all who have responded. These are all interesting responses. Let's see if we can keep it going for another day and after we get a sufficient number of replies on each point, we'll compile them and analyze the results. The objective is to come to a concensus.
    One note, please remember not to reply to others' posts, but simply state your opinions on the items in the list.
     
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