Forensic linguist & Jonbenet Ransom study group

9.4 Issues in Forensic Stylistic Analysis

Various issues have been raised regarding linguistic approaches to questioned authorship cases, both in documented research and criticism, as well as in the direct- and cross-examination testimony of various expert witnesses (lin- guists and nonlinguists). The principal focus of concern is the methodology used to exclude or identify potential writers as authors.

A critical focus on method is helpful because it forwards the process of testing and improving the theory and of unifying applications of it. To be ignored, of course, are isolated instances where some investigators take them- selves far too seriously on their detour as critics. For example, upon seeing how his own research is used to support nearly all other studies of individ- uality in writing, Crystal (1995:382) laments for himself and a coauthor, “If we were dead, we would turn in our graves.” Alas, poor Yorick! And, after inaccurately representing that American questioned document examiners claim a zero error rate, Chaski (2001:11) bravely tumbles her straw man with the comment that “such claims should make any scientist shudder in disbelief.”
The most constructive critical commentaries related to recent develop- ments in questioned authorship studies are those of Finnegan (1990), Crystal (1995), Goutsos (1995), and Grant and Baker (2001). Many of the issues that they raise have been consolidated in the questions and responses that follow.

9.4.1 Stylistics

Is stylistics an established field? Stylistics is a well established field in literary and linguistic studies. Its history of study is broad based and long, spanning many countries and nearly two centuries, and its documented bibliography contains hundreds of works in and on various languages. However, older techniques for establishing authorship are continually under the test of scientific scrutiny, and new methods are being progressively proposed and tested.

9.4.2 Variation

What is the norm and how can it be established? Since variation presupposes a norm, it is necessary to establish the norm to describe variation within or from it. The analyst must be able to establish the norms of language behavior associated with writings studied (see Section 5.2). Although norms may be difficult to identify in precise terms, speakers and writers do not find it difficult to identify variation, which means that they have at least an uncon- scious knowledge of the norms governing their language use. Any social, geographic, or situational norm can be used as the basis for describing variation in writing.
What is conscious and what is unconscious in composition? Related questions concern the possibility of forgery or disguised writing. Not enough is known about composition to establish precisely what in writing is con- scious or unconscious. The reasons for this are the difficulties associated with such studies, i.e., that every writer’s level of conscious choice of forms in writing is different, and that writers demonstrate varying levels of conscious- ness in language production, e.g., unconscious, subconscious, semiconscious, and conscious.

A reasonable assumption is that there are linguistic levels more distant from the conscious choice of a writer. For example, words and phrases are viewed as more consciously chosen than syntactic structures. Chaski (2001:8) says, “… syntactic processing is automatized, unconscious behavior and therefore is difficult either to disguise or imitate …,” but she refers to this as a “fundamental idea about language individuality,” i.e., still an assumption.
A solution to this problem is to exploit the relationship known to exist between natural language and patterned variation. Natural language: what can be applied of Labov’s (1966:100) definition of casual speech to written language is that natural language in writing is everyday writing used in informal situations, where little or no attention is directed to the writing process. Patterned variation: countless studies demonstrate linguistic varia- tion to be structured, meaning that the pattern of linguistic and nonlinguistic constraints on the presence and probability of occurrence of each variable can be specified.
The less attention paid to language production, the more regularly struc- tured (real) the variation will be. On the other hand, if considerable attention is given to the writing process, especially in the contexts of imitation or disguise, variation will be unstructured, unpredictable, and different from that present in like writings of the same author. (See Sections 5.2 and 8.2.6 for examples.)
As a practical matter, then, the analyst can do at least two things to take full advantage of a writer’s entire range of variation (important in authorship cases), while mitigating the possibility of imitation or disguise. First, every effort should be made to obtain comparison writings of similar context and purpose. Second, if possible disguise is an issue, the analyst can include all variation as part of a given writer’s range of variation, then determine the validity of every variable based on its internal structure.
With respect to attempts to replicate another writer’s style, it has already been demonstrated earlier (Oregon v. Crescenzi in Chapter 3, and Estate of Violet Houssien in Chapters 7 and 8) that it is not always so difficult to identify attempted disguise in written language. Imitators cannot recognize the type or frequency of the variables in another writer’s range of variation. It is well known, for example, that the American radio comedians of decades past, Amos ‘n’ Andy, were two white men imitating African-American English. Although they both had considerable lifetime contact with speakers of Afri- can American English, they really only succeeded in using a few stereotypical dialect features, and even those were not used at frequencies matching those of the speech community (Snyder, 1989).
What is a sufficient sample size? There are very many stylistic studies demonstrating various sample sizes (see McMenamin, 1993), yet an absolute low-end sample size has not been successfully determined as adequate for

authorship studies. The reason for this lies in the diversity of language itself. The sample of language is adequate when stylistic variables occur with suf- ficient frequency to establish patterns of variation. Although the test for what constitutes a pattern may be qualitative or quantitative, one of the long established requirements for a good linguistic variable is frequency of occur- rence. Of course, on the high end, the larger the sample, the more chance that linguistic patterns will demonstrate their structure.

9.4.3 Method of Data Analysis

How do different models of stylistic analysis relate to practical cases? The consistency model (as reviewed in Chapter 6) is used in many cases wherein the single or multiple authorship of various writings is in question. For example, an insurance company wanted to know if ten different witness statements were actually written by the people who signed them, or if they were all authored by the claimant and then presented for signature to the ten different writers. Sometimes the consistency of a set of writings is questioned in anticipation of using them as a single-author set of questioned writings to compare to those of a known suspect writer.
The resemblance model is the one most frequently applied. When content or external circumstances permit identification of just one suspect writer, the authorship question is limited to the resemblance between the questioned writings and known writings of that candidate.
The population model is an extension of the resemblance task. When content or external circumstances permit identification of a limited popula- tion of writers, the authorship question is narrowed to the resemblance between the questioned writings and known writings of a limited number (closed-set) of writers.
What is the method of analysis?

1. Get organized: arrange and organize questioned and known writings into manageable sets.
2. State the problem: articulate the authorship problem as you see it.
Articulate the research questions for descriptive analysis and quanti- tative analysis. Select the appropriate authorship models.
3. Procedural steps: assemble all questioned and known writings with the same or similar context of writing. Assess the range of stylistic varia- tion in each set. Identify style-markers: deviations from or variations within any appropriate norm. Note single occurrences of variation as well as habitual variation. If the writings are extensive, make a KWIC concordance to help identify variables. If variation so indicates, make a KPIC concordance of the punctuation in the writings.

4. Specify descriptive results: specify individual style-markers at all lin- guistic levels. Specify the range of variation: the aggregate set of all deviations and variations. Identify and separate style-markers that are class and individual characteristics.
5. Specify quantitative results: give results of statistical tests used to eval- uate the significance of variables. Estimate the joint probability of occurrence of variables in compared writings. Apply other appropriate quantitative approaches to style marker identification.
6. Specify exclusion conclusion: identify dissimilarities between the style- markers of questioned and known writings. Determine linguistic or statistical significance of dissimilarities. Determine to what degree the candidate writer can be excluded.
7. Specify identification conclusion: identify similarities between the style- markers of questioned and known writings. Determine linguistic or statistical significance of similarities. Determine to what degree the candidate writer can be identified.
8. Precedent cases: check linguistic and legal precedents related to style- markers used.
9. State an opinion: state an opinion for the court: exclusion level, iden- tification level, or inconclusive.
10. Write a report if so requested: write a report or declaration that follows the structure used in the sciences.

How are style-markers identified? This question is the single most important issue raised in current research on questioned authorship and is posed in various other ways, e.g.,: how are criteria for identification moti- vated? and how are stylistic variables selected and justified?
The single most important starting point for selecting style-markers is to work within a theoretical model of linguistics that views stylistic variation as inherent to the system of language itself, i.e., not a characteristic of lan- guage performance. This will assure the discovery of the patterned variation needed for authorship identification, as opposed to the accidental and less than systematic characteristics of performance.
The second analytical requirement is to recognize that unique markers are extremely rare, so authorship identification requires the identification of an aggregate of markers, each of which may be found in other writers, but all of which would unlikely be present together in any other writer. This means that it is highly unlikely that any single marker of writing style could be used to identify all writers of a language or dialect, or even one writer’s idiolect.
Therefore, the approach is to identify the whole range of variation in a given set of writings, and analyze it in any acceptable descriptive or quantitative way. The theoretical limitation to this, of course, is the recognition and definition of

the norm within or from which the language varies. This, however, does not present significant practical obstacles, except for an analyst who does not know the governing norms or who cannot identify the variation.
One recent attempt to tackle the issue of style marker identification (Chaski, 2001) is only marginally successful because it assumes that style- markers are like the same relatively small set of chromosomes used for DNA analysis, thereby ignoring the whole range of linguistic variation presented in writing (McMenamin, 2001). However, Grant and Baker (2001:76) and others have proposed a very promising approach to style marker identifica- tion, and it is consistent with the (above-mentioned) principles of stylistic variation: principal component analysis. This approach makes eminent sense. First, it recognizes that authorship identification is achieved through an array of markers: “Components would consist of those markers which collectively account for the most variance in the texts” (Grant and Baker, 2001). Second, it recognizes the near impossibility of identifying style-markers that are gen- erally valid and reliable for all writers (Grant and Baker, 2001). This indicates that they understand the inherent variability of language, i.e., that stylistic variation, whether dialectal or idiolectal, must be analyzed as part of the underlying competence of speakers and writers, not as a never-to-be-found universal of linguistic performance.

9.4.4 Qualitative Analysis

What is the role of the analyst’s intuition? Intuition is the analyst’s use of his or her own judgment to discover linguistic variation and suggest initial hypotheses to investigate. As a speaker or writer of the language and as a linguist, the analyst uses introspection to start the process of analysis. Lakoff comments on the use of introspection and informal observation that, “… any procedure is at some point introspective …” (Lakoff, 1975:5). A good discussion of the methodological role of intuition in linguistic research can be found in Johnstone (2000).
Are qualitative statements impressionistic? This is also asked in other ways: Is not qualitative analysis subjective and quantitative analysis objective? Is this description without analysis? While this question is elaborated on in Chapter 7, it bears repeating that stylistic analyses are both qualitative and quantitative, but the description of written language is the first and most important means for discovering style variation. The focus of the qualitative study of writing is a systematic linguistic description of what forms are used by a writer, and how and why they may be used.
What is the process of argumentation? The scientific basis of the argu- ment is that of any empirical study: observation, description, measurement, and conclusion. In the specific case of authorship studies, the argument is as follows:

Notice these style-markers in the corpus of writing.
The array of patterned markers is described as a, b, c, …
Each of these markers has x probability of occurring in the writing of the speech community.
Taken as an aggregate set, they have y probability of occurring together in one writer.
The author-specific markers and their joint probability of occurrence are either the same as or different from those of a comparison corpus of writing.

9.4.5 Quantitative Methods of Data Analysis

Is statistical analysis necessary? As stated in Chapter 8, the measurement of variation in written language complements its description and is therefore important to the successful analysis and interpretation of style. The focus is on how much and how often forms are used by a writer, which is necessary to satisfy current requirements for the study of linguistic variation, as well as to satisfy external requirements for expert evidence as imposed by the judiciary.
Are there baseline norms for frequency statements? Baseline norms can be established on a case-by-case basis. Written language corpora are becom- ing more available, although it may not always be possible to match exactly the context of writing presented by documents in a particular case. Often, civil and criminal clients can produce an appropriate corpus from their own workplace or other writings produced in a context similar to those being analyzed. Specialized corpora developed by specialists in other fields can sometimes be found e.g., a corpus of suicide notes collected by a coroner.
How is frequency defined and what is its significance? In descriptive studies, one instance of a style variant does not constitute a pattern, unless it can be demonstrated to be unique through frequency estimates based on large corpora. However, a pattern (whose relative strength increases with frequency of occurrence) can be established with two or more instances. For example, the appearance of “confidentuality” in a questioned document and its double repetition in known writings is a definite pattern of variation. In quantitative studies, the determination of frequency is somewhat easier inso- far as statistical tests specify minimum numbers of instances necessary for their reliable use.

9.4.6 Other Questions

Does not the use of a suspect writer’s own name suggest that he is not the writer? No, it is well known in the field of questioned document examination that anonymous writers often use their own names to encourage investigators to see them as victims rather than possible perpetrators.

Does the analyst fail to look at other possible writers? The specific task determines the model of analysis to be used. If the population model is appropriate to the problem, then other possible writers are studied. If external information dictates the use of the resemblance model, then only one writer is considered. In those cases for which clients cannot articulate the problem and clearly indicate the task, this must be done with the linguist’s help before analysis is started.
Does the analyst look for exculpatory characteristics? Whether certain evidence is incriminating or exculpatory is the concern of the client and the trier of fact, not the expert witness. The linguist analyzes the writings pre- sented for both similarities and differences vis-à-vis comparison writings, then states his or her findings, conclusions, and opinions. The linguist’s participation usually stops there if the evidence is not consistent with the expectations of the client. The linguist may testify at deposition or in court if it is the case that his or her evidence supports the client’s position.



9.5 The Linguist as Expert Witness

9.5.1 Qualifications

There are two ways to talk about a linguist’s qualifications: what level of professional preparation in linguistics and forensic science the individual should have, and what the Court determines is necessary to qualify the linguist as an expert. Although most forensic linguists who now testify in court have a doctorate, a lesser degree, graduate or undergraduate, would suffice when combined with sufficient case experience in analysis and in court. The Court will usually qualify the linguist as an expert in the field if the combination of education and experience demonstrates that the linguist can, in fact, provide evidence that will help a jury make an enlightened decision.
The Federal Rules of Evidence (FRE 702) state three requirements for an expert witness:

1. The witness must qualify as an expert by knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education greater than the average layperson in the area of his or her testimony. Since the expert is there to help the jury resolve a relevant issue, his or her relative level of expertise may affect the weight the judge or jury gives the opinion, but not its admissibility.
2. The expert must testify to scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge. The reliability of the testimony is based on valid reasoning and a reliable methodology, as opposed to subjective observations or speculative conclusions.

3. The expert’s testimony must assist the trier of fact, i.e., be relevant to the task of the judge or the jury to understand the evidence or deter- mine disputed facts.

To be avoided is the imposition of artificial requirements that have noth- ing to do with the linguist’s ability or FRE 702. In one case, an opposing linguist implied that his opinion should carry more weight, noting that, while the other linguist was a professor at a state university, he taught at a well known private university elsewhere in California. In another case, a linguist proposed the narrow requirement that a good expert linguist be a graduate of one of a select few East Coast universities in the U.S. There are, in fact, excellent linguistics programs throughout the U.S. and the world, and thou- sands of good linguists (now more than 14,000 on The Linguist List), many capably handling cases in forensic linguistics.

9.5.2 Reports

The structure of the linguist’s statement will follow the report style of the empirical sciences, something along these lines:

1. Summary (equivalent to the abstract of an academic paper)
2. Articulation of problem (research problem and statement of hypotheses)
3. Upfront statement of opinion (usually at the end of an academic paper)
4. Previous work
Linguistic studies related to identified variables
Legal precedents related to problem or variation (often best handled by attorney)
5. Method
Outline of research tasks that match the specified problem
Data collection and organization
Data analysis
6. Findings
7. Discussion
8. Conclusion
(9.) Identification
(8.) Highly probably did write
(7.) Probably did write (6.) Indications did write (5.) Inconclusive
(4.) Indications did not write
(3.) Probably did not write
(2.) Highly probably did not write
(1.) Elimination

In studying various reports and testimony of opposing linguists a number of observations can be made. First, forensic linguists must learn to function in the oftentimes aggressive context of litigation without getting angry, defen- sive, petulant, or aggressive — behaviors learned anywhere, but not infre- quently reinforced in academia.
Second, linguists should be reserved about the outcomes of cases, even if their testimony was important to the Court’s decision. The contrary commu- nicates lack of scientific detachment, even possible advocacy, and, puffery on a website or overstating the importance of testimony in an academic article is unseemly. Also, linguistics testimony is rarely the only evidence. The linguist may not (and should not) know what other external (nonlanguage) evidence is used to support his or her client’s case, all of which can have a significant bearing on the outcome of the case. In addition, differences of professional opinion and trial outcomes may also result from linguists on opposing sides having different data to work with, or having the occasional client who cares more about his or her advocacy role than the truth. There is also the danger, as once happened, that a linguist rushes into print with “the truth,” only to discover that the other side won a $6 million judgment against his client.
Some linguists are actually quite careful about this. In one case, reviewed by Kaplan (1998), significant differences in linguistic analyses and testimony existed. Kaplan’s presentation of the evidence clearly documents his analysis (with some reference to the differences), states the positive outcome for his client, and in no way exaggerates the issues.
Third, some linguists do not conduct their own analysis, but simply evaluate the analysis of an opposing linguist.
by GERALD R. McMENAMIN
 
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/ransom3.html

Hi Mysteeri.

please note, the absence of a period following the 'C'. in S.B.T.C,
and as such, appears incomplete (SG copy) and perhaps does not reflect a consistent stylistic form/pattern of the rn writer.

Ah, that`s right. I wonder if Patsy´s use of period after the last word in abbreviations is consistent- when she uses periods.
 
About the question if the dissimilarities in the RN and in Patsy`s handwriting could be the result of Patsy writing the note while being agitated or possibly medicated, Mr. McMenamin was kind enough to answer my e-mail. It said: "This is highly unlikely because the contrasting variation is patterned, i.e., repeated, many times in some cases. A heightened or abnormal emotional state is inconsistent with such patterned linguistic behavior. " There`s also research on the relationship between mental state/emotional state and language performance, which presumably is considered in McMenamins study. So it seems that emotional state is not the reason behind the dissimilarities.
 
About the question if the dissimilarities in the RN and in Patsy`s handwriting could be the result of Patsy writing the note while being agitated or possibly medicated, Mr. McMenamin was kind enough to answer my e-mail. It said: "This is highly unlikely because the contrasting variation is patterned, i.e., repeated, many times in some cases. A heightened or abnormal emotional state is inconsistent with such patterned linguistic behavior. " There`s also research on the relationship between mental state/emotional state and language performance, which presumably is considered in McMenamins study. So it seems that emotional state is not the reason behind the dissimilarities.

Dude, you actually emailed him? That's so awesome! :) We should compile questions he could answer, if and when Lord Dave has produced other forensic linguists to contradict McMenamins study. The thought of googling for his email did momentarily occur to me, but I didn't think he'd reply. Does anyone else have questions for McMenamin?

The implications for this investigation is enormous. If neither PR nor JR wrote the RN, then that leaves us w/IDI has the only possibility. Once that sinks in, when we realize that all RDI speculation of why PR wrote an RN she didn't write sinks it, that it's all speculation, not grounded in science and statistics, (evidently DNA + Touch DNA wasn't enough science, nor the rape of Amy 9 months later and living 2 miles away)

I have to say this:

This will be a day long remembered. It has seen the end of SD-WON, and it will soon see the end of the R[di]ebellion.
 
So the prophecy says. PR-RN Shatterpoint. For your own good, stay out of this affair. I sense a great deal of confusion in you, there is much fear that clouds your judgment.

There is NO fear in me anymore. And at one time, my judgment was clouded, but not now.
 
Dude, you actually emailed him? That's so awesome! :) We should compile questions he could answer,

I think that's a fine idea!

if and when Lord Dave has produced other forensic linguists to contradict McMenamin's study.

That could be a problem. First of all, I have no idea where to start LOOKING for some!

Secondly, once I do (and I'm hoping you folks would know where I might look), provided that they haven't done an analysis on this already, I'm not sure it would be the greatest idea to let them know that someone else in the field has already concluded such-and-such, because that could influence their own conclusions. THAT, more than anything (in my opinion) is what caused all the problems with the handwriting analysis in the FIRST PLACE!

Does anyone else have questions for McMenamin?

I suppose I could think of a few.

The implications for this investigation is enormous. If neither PR nor JR wrote the RN, then that leaves us w/IDI has the only possibility.

Right--IF

Once that sinks in, when we realize that all RDI speculation of why PR wrote an RN she didn't write sinks it, that it's all speculation, not grounded in science and statistics,

Yeah, IF, like you said. The problem--and this is the point I've been trying to make, for all the good it does me--is that right now, there's a lot going against you. The analysis you've posted is impressive (most impressive), I'll give you that, and definitely worth exploring further. But it doesn't wipe away everything else. You've got a LONG way to go in that regard.

In other words, The Force is with you, voynich. But you are not a Jedi yet.

Let me ask you folks something: wouldn't you say that it's fairly reasonable that at least a few people in the police dept., DA's office and RST are aware of this analysis? Yet none of them ever reference it. Kind of odd, wouldn't you say?

(evidently DNA + Touch DNA wasn't enough science,

voynich, do you know how easy it is to transfer and detect DNA now? Don't take my word for it, either. During the whole JMK debacle, Bill O'Reilly interviewed an FBI criminologist on that very subject. She said, and I quote, "the more sensitive DNA testing methods become, the more likely they are to detect non-relevant material."

nor the rape of Amy 9 months later and living 2 miles away)

Doesn't sound very scientific to me.

I have to say this:

This will be a day long remembered. It has seen the end of SD-WON, and it will soon see the end of the R[di]ebellion.

Don't bet your lightsaber on it!
 
About the question if the dissimilarities in the RN and in Patsy`s handwriting could be the result of Patsy writing the note while being agitated or possibly medicated, Mr. McMenamin was kind enough to answer my e-mail. It said: "This is highly unlikely because the contrasting variation is patterned, i.e., repeated, many times in some cases. A heightened or abnormal emotional state is inconsistent with such patterned linguistic behavior. " There`s also research on the relationship between mental state/emotional state and language performance, which presumably is considered in McMenamins study. So it seems that emotional state is not the reason behind the dissimilarities.

Wow. How'd you find his email address? Moreover, I'd like to know how you worded that question.

I would just remind you, Mysteeri, and everyone else, that he has good reason to say that. Like everyone else (or just about everyone else) in these fields, he has a vested interest in sticking by his claims.

Tell you what: I'VE got a question for him! So far, we've come at this from the angle that it was one person or the other. What if it was both of them together?
 
Wow. How'd you find his email address?

Well Dave, the bio I listed does state he is a current faculty of linguistics at a major university (and member of document of forensic examiners)

This is pretty exciting, a rare convergence in the Force. The resident sith lord was writing a book on JB, when I arrived, not knowing there's another Force-sensitive here, talking about McMermin (my first post). So Lord Dave, if you're going to write your book, will forensic linguist figure in?

I do think that we don't want to inundate him with same repetitive emails, and hopefully we show we are at least familiar with his book and not ask him questions he has already addressed in his book, such as how he calculated statistics (chapter 8 and 9)
 
About the question if the dissimilarities in the RN and in Patsy`s handwriting could be the result of Patsy writing the note while being agitated or possibly medicated, Mr. McMenamin was kind enough to answer my e-mail. It said: "This is highly unlikely because the contrasting variation is patterned, i.e., repeated, many times in some cases. A heightened or abnormal emotional state is inconsistent with such patterned linguistic behavior. " There`s also research on the relationship between mental state/emotional state and language performance, which presumably is considered in McMenamins study. So it seems that emotional state is not the reason behind the dissimilarities.


Hi Mysteeri.

briallant! that you sought the source



"This is highly unlikely" doesn't allow much room for the exception?

"a heightened or abnormal emotional state is inconsistent with such patterened linguistic behaviour" .... so the IDI was not 'abnormal' when he wrote the note?
can McMenamin's conclusions be applied to the IDI scenario?
ie that the rn is a true representation of the IDI's stylistic pattern?
 
Well Dave, the bio I listed does state he is a current faculty of linguistics at a major university (and member of document of forensic examiners)

That COULD be a good place to start. But I don't want any of them to be influenced by his conclusions. That could be a bit harder. So, even if i can contact them, how to get them to do it?

So Lord Dave, if you're going to write your book, will forensic linguist figure in?

Not "going to write," Master Voynich. WRITTEN. Finished. Barring any major developments, it's all ready to be published (as soon as I can find someone to take on the project. I've heard some possibles).

But to answer your question, forensic linguistics figures in very little. There's only about three paragraphs in the entire text that mention it. Like I said, as it stands now, I just don't hold much stock in it. In fact, the few times I DO mention it really isn't to debate the merits of one method or the other. It's to show how Alex Hunter was so positive that linguistics would be the case-breaker UNTIL he got the ONE answer he was DESPERATE not to get! That was the point of that link I PM'd to you.

I do think that we don't want to inundate him with same repetitive emails, and hopefully we show we are at least familiar with his book and not ask him questions he has already addressed in his book, such as how he calculated statistics (chapter 8 and 9)

I can see how that would get annoying!
 
Hi Mysteeri.

brialliant! that you sought the source



"This is highly unlikely" doesn't allow much room for the exception?

"a heightened or abnormal emotional state is inconsistent with such patterened linguistic behaviour" .... so the IDI was not 'abnormal' when he wrote the note?
can McMenamin's conclusions be applied to the IDI scenario?
ie that the rn is a true representation of the IDI's stylistic pattern?

The IDI could have been in a heightened or abnormal emotional state but his style and linguistics would have been within 2 standard deviations of the RN

[ame]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation[/ame]

In probability theory and statistics, standard deviation is a measure of the variability or dispersion of a population, a data set, or a probability distribution. A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the same value (the mean), while high standard deviation indicates that the data are spread out over a large range of values.

For example, the average height for adult men in the United States is about 70 inches (178 cm), with a standard deviation of around 3 in (8 cm). This means that most men (about 68 percent, assuming a normal distribution) have a height within 3 in (8 cm) of the mean (67–73 in (170–185 cm)), while almost all men (about 95%) have a height within 6 in (15 cm) of the mean (64–76 in (163–193 cm)). If the standard deviation were zero, then all men would be exactly 70 in (178 cm) high. If the standard deviation were 20 in (51 cm), then men would have much more variable heights, with a typical range of about 50 to 90 in (127 to 229 cm).

In addition to expressing the variability of a population, standard deviation is commonly used to measure confidence in statistical conclusions. For example, the margin of error in polling data is determined by calculating the expected standard deviation in the results if the same poll were to be conducted multiple times. (Typically the reported margin of error is about twice the standard deviation, the radius of a 95% confidence interval.) In science, researchers commonly report the standard deviation of experimental data, and only effects that fall far outside the range of standard deviation are considered statistically significant—normal random error or variation in the measurements is in this way distinguished from causal variation. Standard deviation is also important in finance, where the standard deviation on the rate of return on an investment is a measure of the risk.

The term standard deviation was first used[1] in writing by Karl Pearson[2] in 1894 following use by him in lectures. This was as a replacement for earlier alternative names for the same idea: for example Gauss used "mean error".[3] A useful property of standard deviation is that, unlike variance, it is expressed in the same units as the data.

When only a sample of data from a population is available, the population standard deviation can be estimated by a modified quantity called the sample standard deviation, explained below.

A large standard deviation indicates that the data points are far from the mean and a small standard deviation indicates that they are clustered closely around the mean.

For example, each of the three populations {0, 0, 14, 14}, {0, 6, 8, 14} and {6, 6, 8, 8} has a mean of 7. Their standard deviations are 7, 5, and 1, respectively. The third population has a much smaller standard deviation than the other two because its values are all close to 7. In a loose sense, the standard deviation tells us how far from the mean the data points tend to be. It will have the same units as the data points themselves. If, for instance, the data set {0, 6, 8, 14} represents the ages of a population of four siblings in years, the standard deviation is 5 years.

As another example, the population {1000, 1006, 1008, 1014} may represent the distances traveled by four athletes, measured in meters. It has a mean of 1007 meters, and a standard deviation of 5 meters.

Standard deviation may serve as a measure of uncertainty. In physical science, for example, the reported standard deviation of a group of repeated measurements should give the precision of those measurements. When deciding whether measurements agree with a theoretical prediction the standard deviation of those measurements is of crucial importance: if the mean of the measurements is too far away from the prediction (with the distance measured in standard deviations), then the theory being tested probably needs to be revised. This makes sense since they fall outside the range of values that could reasonably be expected to occur if the prediction were correct and the standard deviation appropriately quantified. See prediction interval.

[edit] Application examples

The practical value of understanding the standard deviation of a set of values is in appreciating how much variation there is from the "average" (mean).

[edit] Weather

As a simple example, consider average temperatures for cities. While two cities may each have an average temperature of 15 °C, it's helpful to understand that the range for cities near the coast is smaller than for cities inland, which clarifies that, while the average is similar, the chance for variation is greater inland than near the coast.

So, an average of 15 occurs for one city with highs of 25 °C and lows of 5 °C, and also occurs for another city with highs of 18 and lows of 12. The standard deviation allows us to recognize that the average for the city with the wider variation, and thus a higher standard deviation, will not offer as reliable a prediction of temperature as the city with the smaller variation and lower standard deviation.

[edit] Sports

Another way of seeing it is to consider sports teams. In any set of categories, there will be teams that rate highly at some things and poorly at others. Chances are, the teams that lead in the standings will not show such disparity, but will perform well in most categories. The lower the standard deviation of their ratings in each category, the more balanced and consistent they will tend to be. Whereas, teams with a higher standard deviation will be more unpredictable. For example, a team that is consistently bad in most categories will have a low standard deviation. A team that is consistently good in most categories will also have a low standard deviation. However, a team with a high standard deviation might be the type of team that scores a lot (strong offense) but also concedes a lot (weak defense), or, vice versa, that might have a poor offense but compensates by being difficult to score on.

Trying to predict which teams, on any given day, will win, may include looking at the standard deviations of the various team "stats" ratings, in which anomalies can match strengths vs. weaknesses to attempt to understand what factors may prevail as stronger indicators of eventual scoring outcomes.

In racing, a driver is timed on successive laps. A driver with a low standard deviation of lap times is more consistent than a driver with a higher standard deviation. This information can be used to help understand where opportunities might be found to reduce lap times.

[edit] Finance

In finance, standard deviation is a representation of the risk associated with a given security (stocks, bonds, property, etc.), or the risk of a portfolio of securities (actively managed mutual funds, index mutual funds, or ETFs). Risk is an important factor in determining how to efficiently manage a portfolio of investments because it determines the variation in returns on the asset and/or portfolio and gives investors a mathematical basis for investment decisions (known as mean-variance optimization). The overall concept of risk is that as it increases, the expected return on the asset will increase as a result of the risk premium earned – in other words, investors should expect a higher return on an investment when said investment carries a higher level of risk, or uncertainty of that return. When evaluating investments, investors should estimate both the expected return and the uncertainty of future returns. Standard deviation provides a quantified estimate of the uncertainty of future returns.

For example, let's assume an investor had to choose between two stocks. Stock A over the last 20 years had an average return of 10%, with a standard deviation of 20 percentage points (pp) and Stock B, over the same period, had average returns of 12%, but a higher standard deviation of 30 pp. On the basis of risk and return, an investor may decide that Stock A is the safer choice, because Stock B's additional 2% points of return is not worth the additional 10 pp standard deviation (greater risk or uncertainty of the expected return). Stock B is likely to fall short of the initial investment (but also to exceed the initial investment) more often than Stock A under the same circumstances, and is estimated to return only 2% more on average. In this example, Stock A is expected to earn about 10%, plus or minus 20 pp (a range of 30% to -10%), about two-thirds of the future year returns. When considering more extreme possible returns or outcomes in future, an investor should expect results of up to 10% plus or minus 90 pp, or a range from 100% to -80%, which includes outcomes for three standard deviations from the average return (about 99.7% of probable returns).

Calculating the average return (or arithmetic mean) of a security over a given number of periods will generate an expected return on the asset. For each period, subtracting the expected return from the actual return results in the variance. Square the variance in each period to find the effect of the result on the overall risk of the asset. The larger the variance in a period, the greater risk the security carries. Taking the average of the squared variances results in the measurement of overall units of risk associated with the asset. Finding the square root of this variance will result in the standard deviation of the investment tool in question.
 
Roger L. DePue is a former head of the FBI Behavioral Sciences
Robert K. Ressler, founder of the FBI Behavioral Sciences Unit, echoed many of DePue's sentiments:

I hold a few cards of my own.


I've been looking forward to this. I see the number of profilers have doubled since the last time we met, Dave. Good. Twice the pride, double the fall.


"Since her body was in the house, a kidnapper would have had to realize that she would be found before any ransom was paid. The note appears to be an effort to obfuscate why she died."
.

The issue of whether the RN was written before (certainly implies IDI) or after (either IDI or RDI) JB's death remains undecided.

What if the note was written BEFORE JB was killed and while R's were away (i.e slipped in the house while R's away like Amy's perp did) and decided to leave the premises after he killed JB, and staged the crime scene. Obviously if it was written before your profiler is speculating.

We've addressed the other issues ad nausea. I don't know how Ressler defines harden criminals but L&L used similar motherly language as did the Barbara RN, both written by men, and perhaps Amy's & JB rapist doesn't satisfy Ressler's definition of a harden criminal.
 
Yeah, IF, like you said. The problem--and this is the point I've been trying to make, for all the good it does me--is that right now, there's a lot going against you. The analysis you've posted is impressive (most impressive), I'll give you that, and definitely worth exploring further. But it doesn't wipe away everything else. You've got a LONG way to go in that regard.

In other words, The Force is with you, voynich. But you are not a Jedi yet.

Let me ask you folks something: wouldn't you say that it's fairly reasonable that at least a few people in the police dept., DA's office and RST are aware of this analysis? Yet none of them ever reference it. Kind of odd, wouldn't you say?

Don't bet your lightsaber on it!


Get help! You're no match for him. He's a Linguistic Lord.


I have no idea of DA & RST are aware nor whether they referenced it. His textbook and he is regularly cited and testified over 250 cases (probably more since the book was published in 2000) where courts have accepted his testimony.

But if these conclusions hold that neither PR nor JR wrote the RN, then RDIST is finished -- everything else is either erroneous or speculation, or worse, RDI spin doctoring.
 
Get help! You're no match for him. He's a Linguistic Lord.


I have no idea of DA & RST are aware nor whether they referenced it. His textbook and he is regularly cited and testified over 250 cases (probably more since the book was published in 2000) where courts have accepted his testimony.

But if these conclusions hold that neither PR nor JR wrote the RN, then RDIST is finished -- everything else is either erroneous or speculation, or worse, RDI spin doctoring.

Hmm. Lets see.

  1. Unknown male DNA causes the DA to essentially 'clear' the Ramseys.
  2. The definitive linguistic study, of which there is no match on any side, excludes JR and PR as the ransom note author.
  3. Grand Jury failed to indict.
  4. There was no evidence discovery that would unequivocally link either parent to the crime.
Does RDI have 'black knight' syndrome or what?
 
Hmm. Lets see.

  1. Unknown male DNA causes the DA to essentially 'clear' the Ramseys.
  2. The definitive linguistic study, of which there is no match on any side, excludes JR and PR as the ransom note author.
  3. Grand Jury failed to indict.
  4. There was no evidence that unequivocally linked either parent to the crime.
Does RDI have 'black knight' syndrome or what?

The only thing I would add is that the profilers and psychological and crime scene profiles such as the CASKU assume that an intruder would not enter the premises while the family is away, and, when the parents are still present, sleeping, and sexually assault the child. Perfectly logical, since the child's screams may bring in the parents. Yet this very thing happened to Amy 9 months later and 2 miles away.


"You and your family are under constant scrutiny as well as the authorities. Don't try to grow a brain John. You are not the only fat cat around so don't think that killing will be difficult. Don't underestimate us John. Use that good southern common sense of yours. It is up to you now John!"

I suspect this author is alluding to movies that do not appeal to PR's demographic, and it would be difficult to come up with such quotes under extreme stress. It also makes no sense for PR to write this. It really makes no sense for PR to write such a note in her own handwriting, with a dead body in the basement, using writing tools paper on her own premises (but disposes of other incriminating evidence) and that JR would allow all this to occur and with his knowledge and approval.

Anyhow I regard the linguistic stylistic study to be definitive, neither PR nor JR wrote the RN. I'm somewhat skeptical that they could tie the garrote, or that they would even want to after the head blow.
 

He likes McMenamin page 20-21

many courts accepted his methodology on the grounds

"technique is widespread and reliable"
"subject to peer review"
"general acceptance to relevant scientific community (linguistics)"

So we have one academic forensic linguist John Olsson peer reviewing the work of another, McMenamin, in a textbook titled, Forensic linguistics: an introduction to language, crime, and the law, stating that McMenamin's methodology passes scientific muster and peer review.

"In forensic linguistics we use statistics to measure probability"

I infer that Lord Dave will have to search far and wide to find a credentialed linguist who disagrees w/McMenamin's qualification


good work tadpole!
 
Slightly off topic, however...

The entire basis of this case has to do with the precious few scraps of evidence that we actually are ALLOWED to know about. There is a "warehouse" of evidence apparently just waiting to blow this thing open, yet we are bickering about linguists, language, experts, experts for experts, touch DNA, no DNA and round and round and round it goes, where it'll end up, nobody knows.

Doesn't this strike you all as ODD?
 
The only thing I would add is that the profilers and psychological and crime scene profiles such as the CASKU assume that an intruder would not enter the premises while the family is away, and, when the parents are still present, sleeping, and sexually assault the child. Perfectly logical, since the child's screams may bring in the parents. Yet this very thing happened to Amy 9 months later and 2 miles away.


"You and your family are under constant scrutiny as well as the authorities. Don't try to grow a brain John. You are not the only fat cat around so don't think that killing will be difficult. Don't underestimate us John. Use that good southern common sense of yours. It is up to you now John!"

I suspect this author is alluding to movies that do not appeal to PR's demographic, and it would be difficult to come up with such quotes under extreme stress. It also makes no sense for PR to write this. It really makes no sense for PR to write such a note in her own handwriting, with a dead body in the basement, using writing tools paper on her own premises (but disposes of other incriminating evidence) and that JR would allow all this to occur and with his knowledge and approval.

Anyhow I regard the linguistic stylistic study to be definitive, neither PR nor JR wrote the RN. I'm somewhat skeptical that they could tie the garrote, or that they would even want to after the head blow.

:clap: Yeah and they just casually forget about the pineapple bowl on the kitchen counter with their fingerprints all over them?

It makes no sense for anybody to do those things. The idea that JR would allow PR to put pen to paper goes far beyond the limit of plausibility IMO. The evidence in the basement on its own (open window, suitcase, unmatched footprint) was sufficient to cause LE to believe she had been sexually assaulted and murdered right there. That the ransom note was 'needed to explain JBR' is simply false.
 
Voynich- I`m not a dude. See this is why we need forensic linguistics, the "motherly tone"- stuff is subjective. ;)

I was hesitant to write about me e-mailing McMenamin, but it`s something I like to do when I want to get to the bottom of things.


Wow. How'd you find his email address? Moreover, I'd like to know how you worded that question.

I would just remind you, Mysteeri, and everyone else, that he has good reason to say that. Like everyone else (or just about everyone else) in these fields, he has a vested interest in sticking by his claims.

Tell you what: I'VE got a question for him! So far, we've come at this from the angle that it was one person or the other. What if it was both of them together?

I googled his e-mail address. http://directory.csufresno.edu/detailsFacultyStaff.asp?ID=341

I worded the question like this:

"I would be very grateful, if you could offer your opinion on the
following subject: Could the stylistic dissimilarities in the
JonBenet ransom note and in
Patsy Ramsey`s handwriting be due to her writing the ransom note
while being agitated and possibly medicated?"

And I did ask if it would be alright if I told about his opinion in discussions concerning the subject (I don`t think he knew I was thinking about websleuths, I used my University e-mail address and perhaps that`s why he assumed I was a linguistic..:blushing:).

Personally I don`t think the dissimilarities are due to John and Patsy writing the note together, since there are stylistics in the rn that differ from both of them I believe. But you have to ask McMenamin yourself..I`m not bugging him anymore. :) (He was surprised that there`s still interest on the issue, well perhaps there`s not in linguistic circles... )
 

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