Discussion in 'Allison Baden-Clay of Australia' started by marlywings, Jun 3, 2014.
This is why I like websleuths.
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I agree. I think his initial instinct was to try to set up "went for a walk then abducted and murdered" scenario. Then various things just didn't fit that scenario. No obvious injuries/cause of death, no sexual assault, no robbery as jewellery still on, no enemies (other than GBC and TMcH) He realised on that first day that the police quickly ruled out "murdered by a stranger" and so would a jury.
I'm going too Snails and have only been once to court before, for GBC's committal. I'm taking the day off work to hear the defence and prosecution give their summaries, and to hear Justice Byrne's direction to the jury. The latter I think will have a big influence on the outcome. Perhaps I'll see you there - I'll have a yellow ribbon pinned to my shirt. (I'm a little nervous too.)
I'm not sure KJ, I thought with the larger room available that seats 250, perhaps 8.30am? This is all new to me but I really want to be there.
I hope he finds exactly the right words.
How many men a year try this stupid vicious story on?? just this year, Mulvihill ( Rachel threw herself on the knife) .. Gittany . ( Lisa threw herself out the window) ... and so on.. All try the same yarn with minor variations on a theme. . '
How many women , per year, actually do commit suicide because their husbands are sexually, financially, socially, and intellectually incompetent?? and leave their children with this sorry article? how many women suicide out of despair and depression and leave their husband, the cause of the depressive oppression, the beneficiary of their insurance policy?? how many women walk 14 klms along a dangerous footpath free road in the dark , and cross over a few bridges on the way yet choose the Kholo bridge? how many people self suicide, and yet remain hidden from 100s of searchers for 11 days?? Manage to bury themselves from the human eye in a place no one has any evidence to offer that Alison knew the Kholo Creek, or it's bridge in any intimacy at all?
Suicide rates are terribly terribly sad.
Evil is the mind that seeks to gain from this terrible statistic.
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Yeah! and I had some nice Rocks...
I just wish if by some chance GBC is found not guilty of murder that he can be charged with killing Allison's spirit because that is what he did to her with all his lies and philandering. Just wish it was considered a crime to do what he did to Allison while she was physically alive. He said that she was just a shell of the person she used to be -- oh dah! ... an who does he think did that to her.
I will keep an eye out for you. I hope I'm not too late to get a seat. Hope to be there by 10am at the latest.
I recall there's a loophole with rotten tomatoes. :laugh:
Funny how a couple of moments can turn your mind around and no matter, that's what you remember -period.
Rubbishing Allison on the stand is an absolute memory stand out, little bit hurt, running like a world celebrity through a gate, closing the window on a reporter's concerned question and VISION OF THE SCRATCHES.
I doubt now my mind will ever change. IYKWIK. Please jury, 'use the force Luke'.
I'm not going to mention the Grannie pash. Nuh uh. :shame:
Yes, me too.
Don't be nervous Snails and Anemone, it's all very organised and friendly. There are some that try to push in, however really it's all very interesting and well worth the effort. I am very jealous of you both, sadly I have to go to work.
Look for me I will be wearing black(no I'm not depressed). Probably a black/white long knitted cardigan.:loveyou:
Have spent a good part of the afternoon reading through the various threads and keeping myself updated on the latest goings on and I have to say if nothing else, these threads are a fascinating microcosm of the human psyche.
Nobody, and I mean NOBODY knows exactly what was going through the mind of Allison immediately before her death, and indeed throughout her entire relationship with GBC. This includes medical professionals who have personally treated Allison, while they are in the best position to make assessments I can tell you from personal experience that some people are reluctant to share their most intimate thoughts and feelings, even with health professionals. There are any number of reasons why information may be withheld or less than truthful answered proffered - The patient may believe it is irrelevant, feel ashamed or may even fear involuntary committal. Again, it is my belief that nobody is qualified to answer on Allison's behalf or make suppositions that she would, or would not do a particular act.
Anyway with that aside, I believe that the prosecution is up the proverbial without a paddle and let me preface this by reminding some who may not be aware of my position - I believe that it is likely that Allison has met with foul play and if that is indeed the case, there is a high likelihood that GBC was involved. However on the evidence adduced at trial, I feel it falls well short of the standard required to convict on either charge.
Obviously at the forefront of the case is whether or not Allison was in fact the victim of a homicide. The prosecution hypothesis is that she was asphyxiated but this hypothesis has seemingly been arrived at by eliminating other potential causes of death including but not limited to - drowning, major trauma caused by a fall and poisoning. The prosecution led no evidence to support their assertion besides the elimination of other possibilities, there was no defining physical or pathological evidence of asphyxiation and no "weapon" has been located. Asphyxiation appears likely but on the evidence led could I be satisfied beyond a reasonable doubt that that is the case? In my personal opinion, no.
Early on the prosecution relied on evidence that screams were heard in the vicinity of the BC household but to their credit, they presented a witness at late notice who essentially debunked the relevance to Allison's disappearance. Of course they have a legal duty to present all relevant evidence to the court but it is always nice to see, particularly when it's so potentially injurious to the prosecution case (brickbats to the investigators who totally ignored the initial statement btw). If there was more than 1 scream, Bruce Flegg later cast considerable doubt it's relevance as well as well as it bordering on absurd that Allison's 3 daughters did not hear a thing despite claims that the screams were heard several kilometers away.
Blood in the Captiva - Worthy of investigation? Absolutely but as was stated during the trial, it is impossible to determine the age of the blood transfer and the volume of blood required to make such a transfer. Furthermore there were no physical injuries found on Allison's body that would seemingly be consistent with this scenario and no alternative theory was put forward as to how the blood arrived to be there. Therefore I cannot place any significance on the blood stain.
The plant remnants found on Allison's body and clothing, this is an area where I think the investigators made a huge blunder. All of the plants found, while being present in and around the Baden-Clay property are all extremely common plants. The botanist who visited Kholo Creek to see if all of the plants were present in the area where Allison was found admitted that he searched only for live specimens, not leaf litter or debris and he did so only 50 metres upsteam and 50 metres downstream of the bridge (albeit with the aid of binoculars). Kholo Creek and it's numerous tributaries extend amount to tens of kilometers of waterways upsteam, the vast majority not being visible from the botanist's perspective even with the aid of binoculars. Should any of those plants grow in the vast waterways upstream, it is obvious that debris from the could have found their way downstream (adding to his admission that at least 1 plant variety was commonly spread long distances by the wind alone). Adding to that, as Kholo Creek is tidal, the leaves and branches could have come from literally anywhere along the Brisbane River and it's catchments, and I don't need to tell you how vast that area is. Investigators needed to conduct a much more thorough survey of the area in my opinion.
Tying in to the above, the hydrologist called gave evidence that even disregarding the heavy rain that fell in the area in the days prior to Allison's discovery, the tidal heights at the time were significant enough to cover Allison's body. Early on in the trial local residents gave evidence that the flow of the river was much higher and faster than usual due to the rainfall so it makes sense that this flow would have carried a significant amount of debris from the catchment. It even gives rise to the possibility, although discounted by the hydrologist (who admitted he had no idea of the flow following the rain), that perhaps the flow moved Allison's body to her final resting place. Given that the area is popular amongst canoeists, is it coincidence that her body was discovered immediate after the heavy rain? Presumably canoeists were in the vicinity fairly frequently, could it be that they missed seeing Allison's body because it wasn't actually there until after the heavy rain? Obviously this doesn't in any way discount the possibility of foul play but it's not inconceivable that Allison's body was left in a different area than where it was found.
Under cross examination the prosecution relied heavily on highlighting GBC's infidelities and financial position. Without doubt they painted a picture of a deceptive and manipulative person but I can guarantee that had any one of us been subject to 2 years of intense scrutiny by investigators that a skilled prosecutor would make us look like absolute monsters on the stand. Yes, GBC did some things that most would consider distasteful to say the least but every single one of us has skeletons in the closet that we would prefer the world not to know about.
While statistics on such activities are understandably unreliable, a large percentage of people have either conducted or at least considered extra marital/relationship affairs (in that they admit they would have an affair if there was a guarantee that they would not be caught). One study that I have seen quoted that figure at ~70% for both men and women (lest this become a male bashing exercise). Of the 12 jurors, statistically there will be numerous adulterers among them. This is where I believe Fuller QC may have made a slight error in judgement in hammering GBC on his infidelities, I can easily picture someone on the jury who has had an affair (or has considered one) and said to themselves "hey, I've done/thought of that but I am certainly not capable of killing my spouse". As for alleged misrepresentations of his financial affairs, I'm sure every one of us has been guilty at one point of either under or over stating our financial position. GBC seems to genuinely believe that his business was turning a corner, some may call that deluded (and you may well be right) but my feeling is that GBC genuinely thought that this was the case. The ever so eloquent "bones of my...." comment seems to indicate otherwise but aside from that he seemed to have some confidence, as presumably did his investors.
The seemingly imminent crossing of the paths of Allison and Toni at the conference didn't really strike a chord with me, I understand that others may take a different view of this but I cannot see this as being motive for murder.
Which brings us to the obvious, the facial scratches and other wounds. As a male no, they do not look like any injury I've ever caused myself while shaving but I have seen some friends give themselves surprisingly substantial injuries whilst shaving (much to the amusement of myself and others at the time!). I'm totally willing to concede that they could be fingernail scratches, in fact it seems likely but with so little other supporting evidence? Allison's DNA was extracted from the fingernail swabs conducted, given the extent of the injuries to GBC's face (and to a lesser degree, his neck) it would seem that a significant amount of material of which DNA could be extracted from would have been on Allison's fingernails. The witness who conducted the swab did explain that DNA will degrade upon exposure to the elements which would explain why secondary DNA could not be found, yet Allison's DNA was still present. Without going into gory detail, it's possible that the fingernails contained a larger amount of "testable matter" where they were previously attached to her fingers and therefore was less susceptible to decay by the elements but I don't believe it was sufficiently explored for me to say with confidence that GBC's DNA would almost certainly have either disappeared or decayed to a level where comparison was not possible.
Apologies for the novel and as always, my opinion only but purely on the basis of the evidence presented at trial (which is what matters to the jury), I could not say he was guilty beyond a reasonable doubt and I expect that he will be acquitted If I had to put a number on it I'd say something along the lines of 80% acquittal, 10% hung jury and 10% guilty.
Edit - There are other matters I have not addressed but I've omitted them to keep the length to a short novel, no doubt I'll explore them shortly, in particular how Allison could have possibly arrived at that location without GBC's involvement and the plausibility of GBC being able to, without a single person noticing, murder Alison, drag her through the house or yard, load her into the car and drive off, much less placing him at any point on the 30-40km round trip at the time in question.
Edit again - Excuse the typos, can't be bothered going back to fix them all (can't believe I got their wrong, that is one of my pet hates)!
Thanks Hillsdon. I can't quite believe how nervous I am. I knew I'd be in Brisbane for a few days this week but I thought the trial would be over by now as not many of us thought GBC would take the stand. So that's the way it's worked out for me. I plan on being there all day so I promise to report back when I can.
Lol - I'll be wearing mostly black too and I'm not one bit depressed!
Hi Kiwi, I was there at 8:15am last Monday and there were about 50/60 people in front of me in the queue. The doors opened at 8:30am and the line moved in fairly quickly. Many must have wanted to be in the main court room, as I and other WS friends ended up first in one of the two overflow rooms on Level 6. However, as tomorrow involves closing statements it might be a bit different.
They used a larger room for 'overflow' at the end of last week, but you're still going to have to be there early. My guess is many more will turn up tomorrow. It's going to be a big day! When you get in, go up to Level 6 to the Overflow Room/s. Level 5 is where the actual case is taking place, but most are respecting this room for family and friends. It's up to you though.
Good luck - you won't regret the experience to be there and see/hear so much more than you do via media
The first info the police got about what Allison was wearing that night was the first interview with the then 10 year old daughter - I've just searched back through the trial thread for the 11th. GBC was not asked by police in his recorded interview in the morning.
With full access to the house at that point, the police could have looked for the pyjamas straightaway. And yet the pyjamas (lack of) have not been reported in the testimony of any of the relevant police officers - I've checked.
I'm worried the police have dropped the ball on this one by not looking and it's too late now obviously. I wonder if GBC's silly reply to the "where are the pjs?" question was a little bit cocky (rather than evasive) as he knew there was no testimony re the pjs at that point.
When I get home from work tomorrow evening we may have a verdict. If the jury go with the general feel of this forum and with the opportunity of seeing GBC first hand, the Kholo bridge, the house, the agreed facts and having a birds eye view of all the witnesses they come to and "undeniable truth" then I respect their decision. My feeling is there will need to be a lot of discussion within the jury to iron out the possible theories and conflicting evidence. I would personally feel better if it did take them a reasonably long time to arrive at a guilty verdict so I know they have carefully considered the evidence. The recent trial of Rolf Harris took several days to reach a verdict. The jury did come back with questions and wanting to review a video. They obviously laboured conscientiously to view and discuss the evidence and come up with a unaminous verdict. I trust the current jury will do the same. As I said earlier today, I am very glad it is not me on the jury struggling with what is reasonable doubt. It would take me a long time to carefully view all the evidence to be sure I was making the right decison. Although I struggle to come to grips with the fact GBC may have smothered Alison in their bed while their children slept and heard nothing, I really struggle to come up with an alternative, logical, hypothesis that may explain the known facts.