IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #34

[roseofsharon]

That's an interesting idea. Overall, I tend to doubt that there was anything to see via FLIR because they were looking for two missing girls and it's clear that LE started treating the case as a possible double homicide right away. Had the operator seen anything that might have been a body or two bodies lying in an otherwise deserted area, I'm sure they would have checked it out.

I saw a video clip on Youtube of a TV show a while back about forensics that included some information about forward looking infra-red. I've been searching both via Youtube and Google trying to find it again but can't find it.

As I recall, the FLIR scan is not effective for as far as the human eye can see; it's only effective for a sort of elongated cone shape from the front of the plane and outside that area, stuff just blurs out.

I'm trying to recall how far out it can effectively see but I really don't remember for sure. Less than 10 miles is as near as I can remember. I do remember being surprised that it wasn't effective for further out because in theory, FLIR can be used to guide a plane in zero visibility conditions, such as in fog, and a plane covers 10 miles in practically no time. I remember thinking "boy, I bet that's a white knuckle landing."

FLIR only works if the object one is looking for is warmer than the environment. If the object is the same temperature as the environment, it won't be picked up. So once a body has cooled to the ambient temperature, it's invisible on FLIR.

The data stream can be recorded for later analysis. In this situation, I don't know how long they store the recorded data.

Did the plane seach while the lake was being dragged? It's awful when you can't remember details after only one year. IMO

 

[otto]

I'm still stuck on the timeline, but let's suppose that the children were last seen by family at 11:30. Suppose they first cycled to the parking lot near the old post office (per Wylma), then circled back to where they passed the video camera. That might place them there at 11:40 - 11:45. We have never heard that the children were seen on video, cycling back and forth, several times. We've only heard about the one time.

Let's suppose that they were abducted at 11:45 - 11:50, just after passing the camera. With the police issued time stamp of "alive and well" at 12:15, it's possible that anyone that saw anything at 11:50 will assume that whatever they saw is irrelevant.

If they were grabbed at 11:50 and driven down Lafayette to the East end of Arbutus, subdued, and then the "boxy vehicle" drove to the wooded area to plant the bikes, that fits with the vehicle being in the area between 11:30 and 12:30.

I hope the family, or someone, will explore whether the children were seen several times on video, or just the once. If it is just the one time, what were they supposedly doing for 45 minutes between the time they went out the door and 12:15? It doesn't add up.

If they were only seen on video one time, that might explain why police have stated that the time that they went out the door to closer to 12:00 ... simply because they can't explain why the children were not seen passing the camera several times. I'd like an answer to that question ... as it could support the theory that the timestamp on the video is more inaccurate that initially thought ... and it could change the timeline that people think about when they consider the events of July 13.

 

[roseofsharon]

I'm still stuck on the timeline, but let's suppose that the children were last seen by family at 11:30. Suppose they first cycled to the parking lot near the old post office (per Wylma), then circled back to where they passed the video camera. That might place them there at 11:40 - 11:45. We have never heard that the children were seen on video, cycling back and forth, several times. We've only heard about the one time.

Let's suppose that they were abducted at 11:45 - 11:50, just after passing the camera. With the police issued time stamp of "alive and well" at 12:15, it's possible that anyone that saw anything at 11:50 will assume that whatever they saw is irrelevant.

If they were grabbed at 11:50 and driven down Lafayette to the East end of Arbutus, subdued, and then the "boxy vehicle" drove to the wooded area to plant the bikes, that fits with the vehicle being in the area between 11:30 and 12:30.

I hope the family, or someone, will explore whether the children were seen several times on video, or just the once. If it is just the one time, what were they supposedly doing for 45 minutes between the time they went out the door and 12:15? It doesn't add up.

If they were only seen on video one time, that might explain why police have stated that the time that they went out the door to closer to 12:00 ... simply because they can't explain why the children were not seen passing the camera several times. I'd like an answer to that question ... as it could support the theory that the timestamp on the video is more inaccurate that initially thought ... and it could change the timeline that people think about when they consider the events of July 13.

You make a good point Otto regarding if the girls were only on the cctv once. I think if they were on that video more than once, LE would have shown all video segments of the girls to the public. I also agree, the timeline is too vague. IMO

 

[iamnotagolem]

I'm still stuck on the timeline, but let's suppose that the children were last seen by family at 11:30. Suppose they first cycled to the parking lot near the old post office (per Wylma), then circled back to where they passed the video camera. That might place them there at 11:40 - 11:45. We have never heard that the children were seen on video, cycling back and forth, several times. We've only heard about the one time.

Let's suppose that they were abducted at 11:45 - 11:50, just after passing the camera. With the police issued time stamp of "alive and well" at 12:15, it's possible that anyone that saw anything at 11:50 will assume that whatever they saw is irrelevant.

If they were grabbed at 11:50 and driven down Lafayette to the East end of Arbutus, subdued, and then the "boxy vehicle" drove to the wooded area to plant the bikes, that fits with the vehicle being in the area between 11:30 and 12:30.

I hope the family, or someone, will explore whether the children were seen several times on video, or just the once. If it is just the one time, what were they supposedly doing for 45 minutes between the time they went out the door and 12:15? It doesn't add up.

If they were only seen on video one time, that might explain why police have stated that the time that they went out the door to closer to 12:00 ... simply because they can't explain why the children were not seen passing the camera several times. I'd like an answer to that question ... as it could support the theory that the timestamp on the video is more inaccurate that initially thought ... and it could change the timeline that people think about when they consider the events of July 13.

I think you might be onto something here. Mr Carpenter saw the girls but perhaps that was before they were seen on video at 12:15. Maybe the girls left the house at 11:30 as initially reported and biked down towards the lake but never actually went to the lake. Then they could have biked past the video and were then abducted.

 

[threecrazykids]

And just to throw this out there (highly unlikely) but we don't even know for sure those two bikes that went past were even the girls.

According to Pahl (auction house owner) he said "as far as I know they were the only two who went past on bikes that day".

Abben says "you can't even make anything from the video - it's just zoom - and they're by it"

So...take the video out of the picture all together and you open up a whole world of options.

I have never heard LE confirm that it is indeed the girls. All the headlines say "video camera may have recorded the girls riding" etc.

Pahl did say that they (LE) noted every single vehicle that went by that day so I tend to believe they believe it to be the girls...but if we take out the video timestamp altogether then what do we have for a timeline of LE confirmed sighting times?

 

[Grainne Dhu]

Did the plane seach while the lake was being dragged? It's awful when you can't remember details after only one year. IMO

According to Otto's extremely helpful timeline, the Iowa State Patrol sent a FLIR equipped plane to search starting at 7 pm the same day the girls disappeared.

 

[threecrazykids]

Due to TOS, it's too bad I can't post, what appears to be, the same vehicle parked on a street in Evansdale with Meyers Lake in the background ... photo taken August 2012, before a possible POI would even know their vehicle was to become a VOI. IMO

I am not familiar with the TOS in regards to this. Can you explain?

Would the picture implicate someone that we know is off limits? Just curious...

 

[otto]

I think you might be onto something here. Mr Carpenter saw the girls but perhaps that was before they were seen on video at 12:15. Maybe the girls left the house at 11:30 as initially reported and biked down towards the lake but never actually went to the lake. Then they could have biked past the video and were then abducted.

That's an interesting thought. If they biked to the parking lot and then headed down the Meyers Lake Nature Trail, they would have ended up at the end of Arbutus where the "boxy vehicle" was parked and where Arbutus intersects with the bike trail. If they looped around and headed home cutting through side streets, then cycled by the camera, that would place them there at about 12:15. If the boxy vehicle drove down Arbutus, followed them or intersected them at the end of the road (along River Avenue - or whatever it's called) after they passed the camera ... abducted them ... presumed that they had permission to be at the lake, so took the bikes back to the lake ... that's an interesting thought. That would explain both the sighting near the bike path at the end of Arbutus as well as the third sighting near the woods (where the bikes were found). That could also explain the 12:11 (or 12:15) video timestamp, that the perp first saw the children on the bike trail at Arbutus, why the bikes were left at the lake and why the vehicle parked near the woods between 11:30 and 12:30.

I think your suggestion makes a lot of sense. It even allows for the cyclist's tip at about 12:27 ... and it explains why the cyclist, who should have been at the same place and at the same time as the children at Meyers Lake, saw their bikes but didn't see them.

I'm not feeling 100% today and came home from work, but I'll map this out in the next day or two so we can see whether it actually fits with what we know.

 

[otto]

And just to throw this out there (highly unlikely) but we don't even know for sure those two bikes that went past were even the girls.

According to Pahl (auction house owner) he said "as far as I know they were the only two who went past on bikes that day".

Abben says "you can't even make anything from the video - it's just zoom - and they're by it"

So...take the video out of the picture all together and you open up a whole world of options.

I have never heard LE confirm that it is indeed the girls. All the headlines say "video camera may have recorded the girls riding" etc.

Pahl did say that they (LE) noted every single vehicle that went by that day so I tend to believe they believe it to be the girls...but if we take out the video timestamp altogether then what do we have for a timeline of LE confirmed sighting times?

I think that the parents should be able to recognize their children on video. Lyric was 4'11" on an adult's bike and Elizabeth was riding a much smaller BMX bike. I've always assumed that it was the girls ... but a word from the parents one way or the other would help.

Alternatively, maybe they biked down the trail, intersected the "boxy vehicle" at the end of Arbutus, were abducted, their bikes were placed at the gate and the children on the video are two completely different children. I'm inclined to think that the "boxy vehicle" person spoke to the children at the trail and then lured them at the end of their street.

 

[margarita25]

I'm sure this has already been mentioned, fwiw; Kathlynn was found under a Kate Shelley Bridge, and the girls were found at Seven Bridges...(still can't get over the coincidences of Ka Sh, and the history/story of the Kate Shelley Bridge).


Also, fwiw, Seven Bridges is a song by the Eagles. I'm sure that has also been mentioned (I'm not saying this holds any significance whatsoever).

 

[NWLady]

That's an interesting thought. If they biked to the parking lot and then headed down the Meyers Lake Nature Trail, they would have ended up at the end of Arbutus where the "boxy vehicle" was parked and where Arbutus intersects with the bike trail. If they looped around and headed home cutting through side streets, then cycled by the camera, that would place them there at about 12:15. If the boxy vehicle drove down Arbutus, followed them or intersected them at the end of the road (along River Avenue - or whatever it's called) after they passed the camera ... abducted them ... presumed that they had permission to be at the lake, so took the bikes back to the lake ... that's an interesting thought. That would explain both the sighting near the bike path at the end of Arbutus as well as the third sighting near the woods (where the bikes were found). That could also explain the 12:11 (or 12:15) video timestamp, that the perp first saw the children on the bike trail at Arbutus, why the bikes were left at the lake and why the vehicle parked near the woods between 11:30 and 12:30.

I think your suggestion makes a lot of sense. It even allows for the cyclist's tip at about 12:27 ... and it explains why the cyclist, who should have been at the same place and at the same time as the children at Meyers Lake, saw their bikes but didn't see them.

I'm not feeling 100% today and came home from work, but I'll map this out in the next day or two so we can see whether it actually fits with what we know.

Hope you get to feeling better Otto, and thanks for your input and ideas. It does leave a lot of food for thought and things for us to think about...

 

[threecrazykids]

That's an interesting thought. If they biked to the parking lot and then headed down the Meyers Lake Nature Trail, they would have ended up at the end of Arbutus where the "boxy vehicle" was parked and where Arbutus intersects with the bike trail. If they looped around and headed home cutting through side streets, then cycled by the camera, that would place them there at about 12:15. If the boxy vehicle drove down Arbutus, followed them or intersected them at the end of the road (along River Avenue - or whatever it's called) after they passed the camera ... abducted them ... presumed that they had permission to be at the lake, so took the bikes back to the lake ... that's an interesting thought. That would explain both the sighting near the bike path at the end of Arbutus as well as the third sighting near the woods (where the bikes were found). That could also explain the 12:11 (or 12:15) video timestamp, that the perp first saw the children on the bike trail at Arbutus, why the bikes were left at the lake and why the vehicle parked near the woods between 11:30 and 12:30.

I think your suggestion makes a lot of sense. It even allows for the cyclist's tip at about 12:27 ... and it explains why the cyclist, who should have been at the same place and at the same time as the children at Meyers Lake, saw their bikes but didn't see them.

I'm not feeling 100% today and came home from work, but I'll map this out in the next day or two so we can see whether it actually fits with what we know.

Otto - I know at one time you had a map that had the last known sightings/times. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't there also a 12:23 sighting mentioned on Brovan as well?

If I remember correctly there were disputes as to what that time actually was and who it came from. I can't find the link where LE mentions this time.

I am just wondering if you or anyone has a link to that as you had it on your map.

Also, if that is true then I believe even more that these girls didn't make it to the lake...but that the person brought the bikes to the lake and left them there.

Heather said she was home at 12, and Kelly had gone out and looked...Grandma got in the car at 12:30 and looked all over and they were already gone.

 

[SapphireSteel]

We're back here again...full circle, over one year later.

07-30-2012,

The 8 minute time slot not only works, it is actually almost perfect.

If they were biking at a reasonable speed it is quite easy to reach the park by 12.20 with time left over.

TG never said exactly 12.20, it was approximately 12.20. I believe this occured because he spoke to his daughter on his cell at 12.27 and estimated from here. He could easily have been a couple of minutes out either way.

So...12.11 on cctv..12.20 or 12.22...the later would give 11 minutes, but locals believe the FBI are working with 8 minutes.

8 minutes to get from the cctv to the lake and gone.

Perfect timing, assuming someone was expecting them to arrive at the park, and had hidden themselves in the "trap" spoken of by DM, intercepted them, into a car, gone.

IT ONLY WORKS IF IT'S NOT RANDOM...if it is all planned, even down to the bike ride to the park, then it fits like a glove.

Daniel Morecombe down here in Aus was literally gone without trace in just 2 minutes, at a bus stop on a busy highway.

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=8207819&postcount=746
:

And then, there's this - I thought it timely to repost -

08-07-2012,
Here's what gramma said -
And then another thing I want to say is down by the lake, going, not the bike path, somebody could have snatched them along the road. If there was two people in a van, they could have thrown those kids in their van with their bikes and there`s another way to drive by the houses and get to the end of that trail and they could have chunked the bikes down there with the children.

http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/17/ng.01.html

She is a local so I'm taking her theory as being feasible...it appears she thinks the bikes may have been staged too.

Edit - gramma brought up a VAN.

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #12

:sigh:

I simply cannot believe there is still no arrest, but I'm counting down to 13 September when I expect some movement in the case. :jail:

:cow:

 

[SapphireSteel]

Otto - I know at one time you had a map that had the last known sightings/times. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't there also a 12:23 sighting mentioned on Brovan as well?

If I remember correctly there were disputes as to what that time actually was and who it came from. I can't find the link where LE mentions this time.

I am just wondering if you or anyone has a link to that as you had it on your map.

Also, if that is true then I believe even more that these girls didn't make it to the lake...but that the person brought the bikes to the lake and left them there.

Heather said she was home at 12, and Kelly had gone out and looked...Grandma got in the car at 12:30 and looked all over and they were already gone.

IIRC the 12.23 sighting was mentioned once, in vague terms, and never repeated.

It has never been revealed who alleged the sighting.

:cow:

 

[roseofsharon]

I am not familiar with the TOS in regards to this. Can you explain?

Would the picture implicate someone that we know is off limits? Just curious...

Unfortunately, if I posted it, it would give the address, to which a reverse address look-up would be possible (names of people).

 

[threecrazykids]

Unfortunately, if I posted it, it would give the address, to which a reverse address look-up would be possible (names of people).

Aaahhh...ok. That stinks, but thank you for explaining. :seeya:

 

[threecrazykids]

We're back here again...full circle, over one year later.




And then, there's this - I thought it timely to repost -



:sigh:

I simply cannot believe there is still no arrest, but I'm counting down to 13 September when I expect some movement in the case. :jail:

:cow:

Refresh my memory SS - I know your perp, but I can't remember if you believe the girls actually rode to the lake and were taken from there...or if you thought they were taken from somewhere else and the bikes were put at the lake. :waitasec:

I think remember you saying that you didn't doubt their clothing/scent could have been dragged from the bikes to the wooded area and drug around there in an attempt to deceive.

I just don't remember what your thoughts were on WHERE the abduction actually took place.

Thanks!

 

[otto]

Otto - I know at one time you had a map that had the last known sightings/times. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't there also a 12:23 sighting mentioned on Brovan as well?

If I remember correctly there were disputes as to what that time actually was and who it came from. I can't find the link where LE mentions this time.

I am just wondering if you or anyone has a link to that as you had it on your map.

Also, if that is true then I believe even more that these girls didn't make it to the lake...but that the person brought the bikes to the lake and left them there.

Heather said she was home at 12, and Kelly had gone out and looked...Grandma got in the car at 12:30 and looked all over and they were already gone.

I'm just looking through the maps ... here's one where a couple of routes are mapped

 

[carbuff]

Am I remembering correctly that LE has never included the cyclist's sighting in their information?

 

[alliemay]

Am I remembering correctly that LE has never included the cyclist's sighting in their information?

You are correct, that's why, in my mind anyway, I go with the 12:30 to 1:00 pm sitings because they did use that time on the "missing posters" they put up of the girls.