ID - 4 University of Idaho Students Murdered - Moscow # 15

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Lalalacasbah

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Thought it would be interesting to see how many different "profiles" the paid professionals are coming up with. Keep in mind they DO NOT have the data LE has. They are working with the same info we have but have their knowledge and experience.

1. Incel theory - Carole Lieberman (Forensic Psychiatrist)
Forensic psychiatrist Carole Lieberman said she is confident the slayings were not a random attack or the work of a serial killer. The "multiple stabbings and bloody mess are signs that it was personal and that the killer was enraged," Lieberman told Newsweek.
  • Personal
  • Enraged
  • Not random or serial
  • Felt rejected or would be suitor
2. Young & knew at least one victim - Jim Clemente (Former FBI profiler)
The murderer who ruthlessly slaughtered four University of Idaho students is likely a “younger” man and a first-time killer, famed former FBI profiler Jim Clemente said.

Clemente, a criminal behavioral expert and former New York State prosecutor, believes the person who killed Kaylee Goncalves, 21, Ethan Chapin, 20, Xana Kernodle, 20, and Madison Mogen, 21 on Nov. 13 likely knew at least one of the victims.
  • Young
  • Comfortable with blood
  • First-time killer
  • Lives in the area
  • Doesn't mind "wet work" and profession will say the same
And here: Idaho college killer likely a stalker or knew students, ex-FBI profiler says he says this:
  • Stalker
  • Not Sophisticated criminally or forensically
3. Potential Serial Killer -Dr. Casey Jordan (criminologist, behavior analyst, attorney)
You could have somebody who is a potential serial killer who has been thinking about doing this for a very long time,” he tells Inside Edition. “If the fantasy was fulfilled, then the fantasy will bloom even larger and very often, we will find a perp who feels compelled to do it again.”

But Jordan says another, and perhaps stronger, possibility is that the victims were acquaintances with their killer.
  • Potential Serial Killer
  • Acquaintances w/ killer
  • From the community
  • In the house before
4. Instrumental Violence-Mary Ellen O'Toole (Retired agent and profiler FBI)
Paraphrasing interview: Targeted has meaning. Equal targets or not?
  • Not evidence conscious
  • Likely cut themselves and left DNA evidence
  • Likely been in the home prior
  • Prior experience being in other people's homes
  • Had to be a sturdy knife
  • Up close and personal
  • Sloppy crime scene but efficient with knife means experienced
  • Doubtful the knife was tossed
  • The knife has been used before but not necessarily in a murder
  • Instrumental not reactive violence
  • cold-blooded, predatory, callous violence perpetrated frequently on strangers
  • Psychopathic individuals lacking empathy and guilt commit high-risk crimes b/c they enjoy the crime
  • Believes there is a threat to the community
  • High risk for reoffending
5. Young male -Jonathan Gilliam (Former FBI Special Agent)
  • Young male
  • One, not two killers
  • Could get in and out w/ out being seen
  • Entered the second floor
  • Not the first time this person did this
  • Adrenaline filled incident
  • Odd or manacing behavior toward people close to him
  • Typically a killing like this is not the first kill unless in the family environment (which this is not)
  • Sees this as an escalation
  • 3-hour travel distance this person probably lives
6. Copycat killer - Bill Warner - (Private Detective)
Bill Warner, a private detective from Sarasota, Florida, called the murderer a "copy cat serial killer" after tracing down the same killing spree pattern as the infamous Ted Bundy murders.

"Current trail of unsolved murders in Washington, Oregon, and Moscow Idaho mimics trail of murders committed by serial killer Ted Bundy in 1970's," he said.

Bundy "appears to have started his murder spree in Feb 1974 in Washington, then May 1974 in Oregon and then May 1975 in Idaho and then many, many more, he was just getting started," Warner explained.

He added: "No coincidence when the same exact geographic path used by serial killer Ted Bundy in 1970's mimicked by current copy cat serial killer murders in Washington, Oregon and the case in Moscow Idaho, three for three."
Early 30's
  • Above Avg. height
  • Fighting Skills
  • Powerful build
  • Martial arts training
7. Targeted & In their orbit-Bill Daly (Former FBI Investigator)
A former FBI investigator said he believes that the Idaho quadruple murders were a targeted attack and that someone in the slain college students' 'orbit' caused it to happen.

  • Two unharmed people
  • Would have to know the home
  • Not mass murderer rampage b/c others downstairs unharmed
  • Think LE have more than we are aware
  • DNA & Fingerprints are only good if they have something to compare to right now, but great later
8. In their Circle - Nancy Grace
  • Someone in their circle
  • No connection w/ person that called it in
9. Someone knew the house-Brad Garrett (Former FBI)
"It tells me that someone came into the house with a comfort level -- that they probably knew their way around the house," Garrett said.

Garrett said investigators should be broadening their search outside the victims' immediate circle of friends and family.

"You're going to have to start spreading out to people they had just a casual relationship with," he said.
  • Someone knew the house
10. Likely Female -Rodney Demery - (Former homicide detective-podcaster "murder chose me")
ormer homicide detective Rodney Demery believes it's "very likely" a woman is behind the murder of four college students in Idaho. "I think it was someone that had a rage, a certain passion, to create such violence," Demery says.
  • 7% female mass murderers
  • Passion
  • Rage
  • Same-sex relationship
11. Not Serial Killer - Mark Furhman -(Former LAPD Detective & lives in Idaho)
  • Not a serial killer
  • Targeted crime
  • Killer sought out and knows one or more of the victims
  • Knife is a weapon of rage
  • Should be able to find the order of killings, height, footprint, right or left-handed from blood spatter analysis
  • Should be able to get blood type even if DNA is not in the system
Excellent post, thanks for all that work and great reference!

They are all quite different however there is quite a bit of overlap with them all and more how it's worded for the most part. Very interesting info.
 

Sister Golden Hair

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Did the authorities say whether all 4 students were killed immediately? I hate to think that they could have been saved, but with 9 or so hours between the stabbing and when police arrived….ugh
My guess, and this is simple conjecture/imagination, is that he dispatched with x and e quickly, then moved to do the same with either m or k, whichever was not his special target. Then he spent extra time with the one he really wanted. I think three were necessary kills and one was desire possession. Obviously, this is a pretty twisted person. I don't think this is their first time. I don't think this was slash and burn frenzy. I also think the killer might skew a little older than others do. I'm thinking late 20s, mid 30s. Old enough to have built up some real resentment to the women who didn't want him and become obsessed with ones he wanted. I'd expect a high degree of misogyny. I also think tech savvy, or so it seems at this point. He may even be so internally conflicted that stirred his rage, too. Just my wild imagination mixing with characteristics from some concerning individuals whose paths I've crossed.
 

JSTANOVICE

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Janitor101

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If so, not locally. Maybe elsewhere? Also, I’ve not seen any local missing reports that could apply, but anything is possible.

My personal theory, today anyway, is he’s a non-local thrill killer & this was unlikely to be his first major crime. Hoping his DNA is in the system!
I don't think this was the perpetrators first crime either. I suspect somewhere in his history, he has committed petty crimes but also crimes related to his ownership of a gun. During the preplanning phase of this crime, he ditched the idea of using a gun due to the noise factor, and also because of his knowledge that there were two other renters on the first floor that he wanted to avoid.
 

Lalalacasbah

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One more thing. I may even post pictures later. If the house is built considering the terrain (many houses in PNW are), then what is “ground floor” from the entrance may be 2nd floor in the back, or vise versa. I recently walked into the house where I thought there was a ground and a 2nd floor. That they had what you’d call basement floor from the face and ground floor from the back I totally missed until I saw the back of the house and it happened much later.

What I think, this killer is the person who is used to seeing the house from one side, the one where the basement is not seen. JMO. That person was unaware of the basement floor. I don’t think he’d care about the girls in the basement. I don’t think he looked at the floor plans.
That's a good thought if a rando/stalker did this, killer has only seen house from one position or angle.
 

Stratford258

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I think this speaks to this being a rage killing because individuals who kill in a rage often do so without any semblance of a detailed plan, exit route, etc. The mind gets fixated on a one track goal of kill my target(s) and it's not that the 'reward' in the killers mind outweighs the risk, the risks simply don't matter because the obsession to kill becomes so great.

I've read several interviews with killers who have said this. Why did you kill this person in broad daylight? Why did you kill them in a house with cameras? etc. and the answer is always some variant of - none of that mattered when their obsession to kill/punish their target(s) became so great it consumed them.
Rage killing or someone who's killed in this manner before and who staked out the house. (Or a rage killing by someone who has done it before.)

Mostly, I'm doubting this is a first-time killer. Sadly. Frighteningly.

Not to be creepy, but it wouldn't be that hard to hide in those woods next to the house and see comings and goings and even, by watching a single person at a time moving from room to room, up and down stairs, to figure out a general layout of the house.

The fact that people here have been able to find interior photos of the house online and even some from the victims' social media accounts means that the perpetrator could have seen and studied those, as well.

I'm consistently shocked by how many people don't use blinds or curtains and/or don't use them at night when they have interior lights on in the home. You can see everything in people's houses this way.

I'm always scared for my neighbors when I'm out walking my dog and can see everyone in their house and what they're doing consistently at the same time every day. With someplace to hide, it's not difficult to gain enough information to be generally confident you know who and what kind of physical/bodily resistance to expect if you entered a home (weapons is another story).
 

Sillybilly

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ADMIN NOTE:

This post lands at random

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Simple math ... if there are 200 members currently online and even 5% of those members feel it is okay to sneak in that innocuous little off topic post, and each of those 10 posts receives 10 responses and those responses receive even 2 responses each, that is 200 off topic posts alone that our volunteer Moderators would have to search for and remove in a day (in addition to all the other TOS violations they have to deal with).

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livewiiiiire

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Thought it would be interesting to see how many different "profiles" the paid professionals are coming up with. Keep in mind they DO NOT have the data LE has. They are working with the same info we have but have their knowledge and experience.

1. Incel theory - Carole Lieberman (Forensic Psychiatrist)
Forensic psychiatrist Carole Lieberman said she is confident the slayings were not a random attack or the work of a serial killer. The "multiple stabbings and bloody mess are signs that it was personal and that the killer was enraged," Lieberman told Newsweek.
  • Personal
  • Enraged
  • Not random or serial
  • Felt rejected or would be suitor
2. Young & knew at least one victim - Jim Clemente (Former FBI profiler)
The murderer who ruthlessly slaughtered four University of Idaho students is likely a “younger” man and a first-time killer, famed former FBI profiler Jim Clemente said.

Clemente, a criminal behavioral expert and former New York State prosecutor, believes the person who killed Kaylee Goncalves, 21, Ethan Chapin, 20, Xana Kernodle, 20, and Madison Mogen, 21 on Nov. 13 likely knew at least one of the victims.
  • Young
  • Comfortable with blood
  • First-time killer
  • Lives in the area
  • Doesn't mind "wet work" and profession will say the same
And here: Idaho college killer likely a stalker or knew students, ex-FBI profiler says he says this:
  • Stalker
  • Not Sophisticated criminally or forensically
3. Potential Serial Killer -Dr. Casey Jordan (criminologist, behavior analyst, attorney)
You could have somebody who is a potential serial killer who has been thinking about doing this for a very long time,” he tells Inside Edition. “If the fantasy was fulfilled, then the fantasy will bloom even larger and very often, we will find a perp who feels compelled to do it again.”

But Jordan says another, and perhaps stronger, possibility is that the victims were acquaintances with their killer.
  • Potential Serial Killer
  • Acquaintances w/ killer
  • From the community
  • In the house before
4. Instrumental Violence-Mary Ellen O'Toole (Retired agent and profiler FBI)
Paraphrasing interview: Targeted has meaning. Equal targets or not?
  • Not evidence conscious
  • Likely cut themselves and left DNA evidence
  • Likely been in the home prior
  • Prior experience being in other people's homes
  • Had to be a sturdy knife
  • Up close and personal
  • Sloppy crime scene but efficient with knife means experienced
  • Doubtful the knife was tossed
  • The knife has been used before but not necessarily in a murder
  • Instrumental not reactive violence
  • cold-blooded, predatory, callous violence perpetrated frequently on strangers
  • Psychopathic individuals lacking empathy and guilt commit high-risk crimes b/c they enjoy the crime
  • Believes there is a threat to the community
  • High risk for reoffending
5. Young male -Jonathan Gilliam (Former FBI Special Agent)
  • Young male
  • One, not two killers
  • Could get in and out w/ out being seen
  • Entered the second floor
  • Not the first time this person did this
  • Adrenaline filled incident
  • Odd or manacing behavior toward people close to him
  • Typically a killing like this is not the first kill unless in the family environment (which this is not)
  • Sees this as an escalation
  • 3-hour travel distance this person probably lives
6. Copycat killer - Bill Warner - (Private Detective)
Bill Warner, a private detective from Sarasota, Florida, called the murderer a "copy cat serial killer" after tracing down the same killing spree pattern as the infamous Ted Bundy murders.

"Current trail of unsolved murders in Washington, Oregon, and Moscow Idaho mimics trail of murders committed by serial killer Ted Bundy in 1970's," he said.

Bundy "appears to have started his murder spree in Feb 1974 in Washington, then May 1974 in Oregon and then May 1975 in Idaho and then many, many more, he was just getting started," Warner explained.

He added: "No coincidence when the same exact geographic path used by serial killer Ted Bundy in 1970's mimicked by current copy cat serial killer murders in Washington, Oregon and the case in Moscow Idaho, three for three."
Early 30's
  • Above Avg. height
  • Fighting Skills
  • Powerful build
  • Martial arts training
7. Targeted & In their orbit-Bill Daly (Former FBI Investigator)
A former FBI investigator said he believes that the Idaho quadruple murders were a targeted attack and that someone in the slain college students' 'orbit' caused it to happen.

  • Two unharmed people
  • Would have to know the home
  • Not mass murderer rampage b/c others downstairs unharmed
  • Think LE have more than we are aware
  • DNA & Fingerprints are only good if they have something to compare to right now, but great later
8. In their Circle - Nancy Grace
  • Someone in their circle
  • No connection w/ person that called it in
9. Someone knew the house-Brad Garrett (Former FBI)
"It tells me that someone came into the house with a comfort level -- that they probably knew their way around the house," Garrett said.

Garrett said investigators should be broadening their search outside the victims' immediate circle of friends and family.

"You're going to have to start spreading out to people they had just a casual relationship with," he said.
  • Someone knew the house
10. Likely Female -Rodney Demery - (Former homicide detective-podcaster "murder chose me")
ormer homicide detective Rodney Demery believes it's "very likely" a woman is behind the murder of four college students in Idaho. "I think it was someone that had a rage, a certain passion, to create such violence," Demery says.
  • 7% female mass murderers
  • Passion
  • Rage
  • Same-sex relationship
11. Not Serial Killer - Mark Furhman -(Former LAPD Detective & lives in Idaho)
  • Not a serial killer
  • Targeted crime
  • Killer sought out and knows one or more of the victims
  • Knife is a weapon of rage
  • Should be able to find the order of killings, height, footprint, right or left-handed from blood spatter analysis
  • Should be able to get blood type even if DNA is not in the system
WOW, thank you so much for the time and effort you took compiling this together, it is so interesting to look at the differences and similarities of the opinions all in one place.
 

NoviceCrimeWatcher

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Clarification needed - I believe I read that X and E were at the frat house from 8-9. Where were they after that? Did they at any point that night catch up with K and M? I thought I read that they returned home right around the same time as K and M so where were they between 9-2?
 

CaneDubs

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Idaho students' killer may be an "incel" who felt rejected—psychiatrist
Lieberman said the killer could be someone who felt rejected by one of the victims. "Perhaps some would-be suitor of Kaylee Goncalves and Madison Mogen, who felt that the girls were out of their league, felt rejected, whether they had approached them or just looked on from afar," she said.
The girls could also just have the misfortune of reminding the person of someone who rejected them in the past, like with other perpetrators we've seen. Two of the girls resembled each other so much, maybe they also looked like someone this person knew in another time and place that rejected him.
 

Bliss_Perth

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I’m confident LE has it. IMHO, the owner may have been understandably willing to show it to K’s sister before turning it over to LE (in some ways, the investigation seems to have gotten off to a slower start, moo) & has since kept quiet to protect the investigation whether or not anything else of interest was captured. Moo.
I'm confident the LE has the data from the camera also but i'm curious about the physical camera and it's location.
 

Cryptic

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I am wondering if you all feel that to commit this crime, they would have similar characteristics/profiles to the mass shooters? And if so, I wonder if law enforcement is looking at it with that angle? Looking for people that fit that profile.
I would say "yes", the person who committed this crime could share some of the same personality traits as some mass shooters:

Innate aggression manifested by cruelty to animals, "grievance collecting" followed by pay back, an egotistical sense of rejection ("world does not recognize my genius / women fail to recognize that I am their gift"), a grandiose desire for "fame" etc.

As you stated, the police could well be screening people associated with the victims for those personality traits. The trouble is that not all rampage shooters have multiple red flags in their history or personality.

Rather, some may have low yellow flags that are hard to identify. We have all known low to moderate level jerks. Most never truly harm anybody and a good number fly their yellow flags at low mast.

For example, a former co worker mine is arrogant, but not grandiose. Demeaning, but not cruel. Over all shallow and self absorbed, but by no means totally unempathetic towards others.

His yellow flags would probably not be noticed unless his demeaned, but not abused wife brought them to the attention of the police- and she would not be inclined to do so. I only know about the flags because I knew the guy in high school and worked with him afterwards.

In short, the killer may have some, or many of his personality traits. But... the police would also have a hard time spotting the low yellow flags.
 
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Sister Golden Hair

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The fact that they were looking for camera info from 95 specifically could maybe be they are trying to confirm an alibi?
potentially, but it is one of four corners that must be crossed to get to the house. Because of its location, they are at least able to lock that down. But I'm hoping you're onto something with this1
 

pamelado2

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I suppose everyone is aware of this but me - didn't realize how close they were. Maybe one reason we don't have a good timeline is that they walked. Would they leave the kitchen slider unlocked if that's the case and just come in that way?
 

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MrsWatson

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Thought it would be interesting to see how many different "profiles" the paid professionals are coming up with. Keep in mind they DO NOT have the data LE has. They are working with the same info we have but have their knowledge and experience.

1. Incel theory - Carole Lieberman (Forensic Psychiatrist)
Forensic psychiatrist Carole Lieberman said she is confident the slayings were not a random attack or the work of a serial killer. The "multiple stabbings and bloody mess are signs that it was personal and that the killer was enraged," Lieberman told Newsweek.
  • Personal
  • Enraged
  • Not random or serial
  • Felt rejected or would be suitor
2. Young & knew at least one victim - Jim Clemente (Former FBI profiler)
The murderer who ruthlessly slaughtered four University of Idaho students is likely a “younger” man and a first-time killer, famed former FBI profiler Jim Clemente said.

Clemente, a criminal behavioral expert and former New York State prosecutor, believes the person who killed Kaylee Goncalves, 21, Ethan Chapin, 20, Xana Kernodle, 20, and Madison Mogen, 21 on Nov. 13 likely knew at least one of the victims.
  • Young
  • Comfortable with blood
  • First-time killer
  • Lives in the area
  • Doesn't mind "wet work" and profession will say the same
And here: Idaho college killer likely a stalker or knew students, ex-FBI profiler says he says this:
  • Stalker
  • Not Sophisticated criminally or forensically
3. Potential Serial Killer -Dr. Casey Jordan (criminologist, behavior analyst, attorney)
You could have somebody who is a potential serial killer who has been thinking about doing this for a very long time,” he tells Inside Edition. “If the fantasy was fulfilled, then the fantasy will bloom even larger and very often, we will find a perp who feels compelled to do it again.”

But Jordan says another, and perhaps stronger, possibility is that the victims were acquaintances with their killer.
  • Potential Serial Killer
  • Acquaintances w/ killer
  • From the community
  • In the house before
4. Instrumental Violence-Mary Ellen O'Toole (Retired agent and profiler FBI)
Paraphrasing interview: Targeted has meaning. Equal targets or not?
  • Not evidence conscious
  • Likely cut themselves and left DNA evidence
  • Likely been in the home prior
  • Prior experience being in other people's homes
  • Had to be a sturdy knife
  • Up close and personal
  • Sloppy crime scene but efficient with knife means experienced
  • Doubtful the knife was tossed
  • The knife has been used before but not necessarily in a murder
  • Instrumental not reactive violence
  • cold-blooded, predatory, callous violence perpetrated frequently on strangers
  • Psychopathic individuals lacking empathy and guilt commit high-risk crimes b/c they enjoy the crime
  • Believes there is a threat to the community
  • High risk for reoffending
5. Young male -Jonathan Gilliam (Former FBI Special Agent)
  • Young male
  • One, not two killers
  • Could get in and out w/ out being seen
  • Entered the second floor
  • Not the first time this person did this
  • Adrenaline filled incident
  • Odd or manacing behavior toward people close to him
  • Typically a killing like this is not the first kill unless in the family environment (which this is not)
  • Sees this as an escalation
  • 3-hour travel distance this person probably lives
6. Copycat killer - Bill Warner - (Private Detective)
Bill Warner, a private detective from Sarasota, Florida, called the murderer a "copy cat serial killer" after tracing down the same killing spree pattern as the infamous Ted Bundy murders.

"Current trail of unsolved murders in Washington, Oregon, and Moscow Idaho mimics trail of murders committed by serial killer Ted Bundy in 1970's," he said.

Bundy "appears to have started his murder spree in Feb 1974 in Washington, then May 1974 in Oregon and then May 1975 in Idaho and then many, many more, he was just getting started," Warner explained.

He added: "No coincidence when the same exact geographic path used by serial killer Ted Bundy in 1970's mimicked by current copy cat serial killer murders in Washington, Oregon and the case in Moscow Idaho, three for three."
Early 30's
  • Above Avg. height
  • Fighting Skills
  • Powerful build
  • Martial arts training
7. Targeted & In their orbit-Bill Daly (Former FBI Investigator)
A former FBI investigator said he believes that the Idaho quadruple murders were a targeted attack and that someone in the slain college students' 'orbit' caused it to happen.

  • Two unharmed people
  • Would have to know the home
  • Not mass murderer rampage b/c others downstairs unharmed
  • Think LE have more than we are aware
  • DNA & Fingerprints are only good if they have something to compare to right now, but great later
8. In their Circle - Nancy Grace
  • Someone in their circle
  • No connection w/ person that called it in
9. Someone knew the house-Brad Garrett (Former FBI)
"It tells me that someone came into the house with a comfort level -- that they probably knew their way around the house," Garrett said.

Garrett said investigators should be broadening their search outside the victims' immediate circle of friends and family.

"You're going to have to start spreading out to people they had just a casual relationship with," he said.
  • Someone knew the house
10. Likely Female -Rodney Demery - (Former homicide detective-podcaster "murder chose me")
ormer homicide detective Rodney Demery believes it's "very likely" a woman is behind the murder of four college students in Idaho. "I think it was someone that had a rage, a certain passion, to create such violence," Demery says.
  • 7% female mass murderers
  • Passion
  • Rage
  • Same-sex relationship
11. Not Serial Killer - Mark Furhman -(Former LAPD Detective & lives in Idaho)
  • Not a serial killer
  • Targeted crime
  • Killer sought out and knows one or more of the victims
  • Knife is a weapon of rage
  • Should be able to find the order of killings, height, footprint, right or left-handed from blood spatter analysis
  • Should be able to get blood type even if DNA is not in the system
Excellent post.

I don't think any profiler can make an accurate analysis without having the same level of knowledge that the profilers working on the case have. Even with their advanced training, they're making guesses just like us, except they get paid to do it on TV.

I consider all their opinions with an open mind, but I don't think any of them has offered any real new insight.

MOO
 

Cota332

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Hi, first time posting here, long time lurker.

I just found this article that contains a rather interesting insight by K's mother, regarding K & M's final calls to J.
Here is the quote from the article :
“This person was asleep unfortunately, (and) was not getting the calls,” Goncalves’ mother, Kristi Goncalves, recently told TODAY. “If Kaylee was in imminent danger — her or Maddie — they would have called 911. They would not have been calling this person.”
 

Bliss_Perth

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Now I'm back to "blood oozing out of the house"...

What if it wasn't blood?

Why? Maybe blood "wasn't all over the place"...
The oozing blood makes it look like the worst crime scene ever, but if it wasn't blood, maybe there wasn't "blood all over the place".

It changes things.....
It changes where E and X could have been sleeping.

What if they were actually in the larger bedroom instead of the "oozing blood bedroom"?

It also changes their roommates reaction to the crime scene.

Now I want to know if it is really blood or was it some "creative liberties by the DM"???
<modsnip: no link>

Also Maybe they didn't go in X and E's room to see any blood, i thought it was kind of a rule of thumb you don't go into a couples room in a share house uninvited?.
 
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