Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #135

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Detective Willy said:
JBC is a serial offender who seems to get caught quickly after committing crimes. If you look at his prior convictions he is not the sharpest tool in the shed. BG is very cunning and after 4 years and 3 months I don't think LE is any closer to catching him. If BG gets caught it will be a fluke or he will make a mistake in the future that will tie him back to the Abby and Libby crimes by DNA. If there is no DNA this case will never be solved.
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MOO JBC is caught for about 1 in 10 of his crimes. The ones he gets caught for look like when he is impaired.
 
sandy_80 said:
the words .. odd.. unusual.. strange...not what you expect ...occurred too many times by more than one source to be MISTAKENLY taken out of context ..
actually what proves even more.. that it was shocking ( other than the nature of the crime itself ) is the way the locals reacted or overreacted during the PC s.. as well as asking the FBI to take a look
JMO
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Bolded by me...

IMO just the fact that it immediately appeared to be an abduction/murder of child victims was enough for the FBI to automatically become involved. The FBI maintains rapid response teams that are deployed to child abduction/murder situations as a matter of routine response. You can see a list of their critical response team situations here: CIRG — FBI

It's not because the scene was necessarily gruesome or that they necessarily believed a serial killer was responsible (it was too early in the investigation for a determination like the latter IMO), it's because child abduction/murders are rare enough that most police agencies have very little experience investigating them and require active support.

And this would have happened independent of the fact that an FBI agent was off duty but local to Delphi for personal reasons and joined the search early on for that reason. This information was given in an early press conference.
 
I try not to post gruesome speculation especially in this thread but I couldn't help having it stick in my mind with respect to the much discussed "signatures" that Chadwell's rescued victim was described in the media as having been bleeding from her eyes and his tattoo that resembles Libby appears to be bleeding from its eyes.

It's not a given that someone who has been choked will bleed from their eyes but I'm sure it could be induced if that was someone's specific intention.
 
I’m still not ruling out JBC as BG and think that LE would have issued a statement if he wasn’t their top suspect right now. I can also see a resemblance to the video as well as the sketches, but what bothers me the most are his Facebook posts. It seems to me that he’s playing a game and trying to con people into thinking he’s a nice guy, but then posts things to throw them off guard. Some of his posts seem like clues. I also don’t believe that the poor 9 year-old girl was his first victim. All are MOO.

Maybe I’m just being hopeful because this crime really needs to be solved.
 
I don't think someone who actually gets video taped right before he commits a brutal double murder is all that bright or cunning. Especially if the evidence is left behind. A little higher resolution of video and the guy is caught in days and I doubt anyone is claiming he's anything short of an idiot. BG has just gotten extremely lucky and that luck started with the video quality. And honestly, like has been said, JBC didn't wake up one day at 42 and decide to kidnap, rape, and murder a little girl. He's gotten away with god knows what already, we just don't know about it.
 
Detective Willy said:
With all due respect if BG was such an idiot why has he still not been caught?
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It’s not that he’s an idiot. It’s just that his having not been caught doesn’t mean he’s cunning or brilliant.

Most crimes go unpunished. This is a fact few people understand.

Most violent and property crimes in the U.S. go unsolved

The great majority of violent crime in America goes unsolved

Many of the true crime books I’ve read over the years had some pretty low-brow, dumb killers going undetected for years.
 
Detective Willy said:
JBC is a serial offender who seems to get caught quickly after committing crimes. If you look at his prior convictions he is not the sharpest tool in the shed. BG is very cunning and after 4 years and 3 months I don't think LE is any closer to catching him. If BG gets caught it will be a fluke or he will make a mistake in the future that will tie him back to the Abby and Libby crimes by DNA. If there is no DNA this case will never be solved. I think BG took the girls to the creek to eliminate DNA.
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Statistics are not on LE’s side either.

BBM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...ff6aa2-fe93-11e8-ad40-cdfd0e0dd65a_story.html
“A Washington Post examination of 8,000 homicide arrests across 25 major U.S. cities since 2007 found that in half of the cases, an arrest was made in 10 days or fewer.

The analysis underscores what police leaders and homicide experts have said about the passage of time working against detectives. But it also dispels the notion of a “48-hour rule” that most cases, if solved, are wrapped up in two days. Only 30 percent of the cases led to an arrest within that time frame, the analysis found. Two-thirds of arrests were made within one month. For cases that remained unsolved after one year, 5 percent ultimately led to an arrest…”
 
SMK777 said:
So 95% were not solved.

My brother-in-law is a homicide detective. He told me that most crimes go unsolved.
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After one year, yes according to that report and pertaining to its sample base, 95% went unsolved.
 
Detective Willy said:
With all due respect if BG was such an idiot why has he still not been caught?
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There are a lot of killers with pretty low IQs and some of them successfully evade capture for a long time...Gary Ridgway and John Miller had borderline mental deficiency and both were free for decades, as just two examples. It took Parabon being involved 30 years after his crime for Miller to be caught.

So how do "dumb" killers do it? A few factors....1. They sometimes are lucky; 2. They are social marginals who aren't well-integrated into society, so they don't fall under the suspicion of friends and family (since they don't have many); and 3. What they lack in actual intelligence they make up for in criminal intelligence/cunning, that makes them excellent judges of who to victimize so as to minimize their chances of being caught. JMO
 
SMK777 said:
I can’t cite any off the bat, but surely there are such cases unsolved in the US.
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It has happened but I bet you'd be hard pressed to find more than a couple from between 2010-2019 (allowing time for the wheels to turn). I can't recall the name of that girl they didn't find for like 2 years and finally arrested that cop's son for last year but these sort of cases cry out for justice.

Also worth noting is that classic "serial killers" have practically ceased to exist in the US in the last ten years (spree killing is the new serial killing)

Serial killings are waning, leading to speculation about the cause.

So if this guy (or anyone who gets caught) actually turns out to be ones they'll be inflamed to study how they may have altered the profile to go undetected.
 
I read an article today about what serial killer signatures represent or reflect. The article had many quotes from the infamous John Douglas, of FBI and the Mindhunter book. He said (paraphrasing here) that you cannot call something a signature unless the same elements show up in more than one crime. So, understanding that Delphi LE are not accustomed to such cases as these murders they are tasked with, I nevertheless wonder if their public references to "signatures" might indicate their belief (or knowledge) that the perpetrator was not acting for the first time...did they have knowledge of prior unsolved crimes with the same signature(s)? Just food for thought. I understand it's likely just an insignificant semantic difference. But still..
 
evilwise said:
Statistically, a child murder in a rural area is all but certain to be solved. That's why one going unsolved for so long attracts so much attention.

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/54848522.pdf
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The linked document is an undergraduate honors thesis. I'm sure it got a good grade, but it is not a peer-reviewed study.

The author admits that her data set for "rural" homicides was not large enough to know if her conclusions were truly meaningful.

So I'm not sure this should be used as meaningful data to apply to the Delphi case.

Child homicides, when examined as a set of all murders, are the most likely ones to be solved, IMO, because below the age of about 11 most children are murdered as a result of interpersonal violence within the home. The motives easily become apparent to investigators. Above age 11 the likelihood of acquaintance or stranger violence increases, partially as a result of increase in independence of children of this age. They are more likely to be unmonitored by parental figures and are more susceptible to predation. Because their murderer is more likely to be a stranger to them or an acquaintance with more tenuous links, the murder is more likely to go unsolved. Just MOO.

Child murders that occur when there is an abduction component are different than other types of child homicides and homicides in general. Even if the perpetrator has only offended once, the characteristics of the crime are likely to have more in common with serial murders of adults. Again MOO.
 
Caylee Advocate said:
This video link may have been viewed by many of you, so forgive me if it has been posted previously.


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Thanks for the refresher.

The next video that popped up in the queue for me is this one, from WTHR Ch. 13 out of Indy. RL and others are interviewed. @ 1:47 the camera shot shows the gate on RL's property in the foreground along C.R. 300, the cemetery to the right (the driver in the above video exited from that drive), the ISP Charger is pointed towards the SW corner of RL's property/SE corner of th cemetery shown in the above video, and where the vehicles and equipment are staged at the back on RL's property there is a gate which leads to a path that goes down to the CS.

This video complements the above one perfectly:

 
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