Work So Far
* Offender Profile
* Victim Selection and MO
* Creating a blueprint for geographical Profiling
* The Findings from the geographical profile and potential Victims
Offender Profile
Vann was born and raised in Indiana. His upbringing was likely turbulent and had unstable family connections. The research indicates that this type of upbringing can lead to antisocial behaviour - which could become predatory (Turvey, 2011). This could also contribute to forming unhealthy relationships and manipulative behaviours.
Vann joined the U.S Marines in the 90’s and was discharged with a “less than honourable” discharge. There are no official statements and there’s no public information regarding why he was discharged. What we do know is that things like behavioural issues, substance abuse, or difficulty adapting to the environment, and/or orders (Bresin & Robinson, 2015). It is possible that military training may have heightened his aggression and desensitised him to violence, and detached him from his emotions. His military training may also have contributed to an ability to plan and carry out behaviours associated with serial offending.
I could find no details of early crimes, but Vann alluded to this in his interrogations. There will have been escalatory crimes and behaviours. He may have been using sex workers to get rid of frustrations. He was married to a woman 29 years older than him, her son described him as “a weirdo who was dangerous… and he would never leave his wife or children alone with him”. At the same time he was also seeing another woman and living with her. Vann is on video holding her in a choke hold. He had doused her in gasoline and with his free arm held a lighter threatening to ignite her. He received a 90 day sentence.
We see that in this time period Vann was committing at least one violent assault, and is likely to have carried out more. Due to his choice of victims they may not have gone to law enforcement to report incidents of escalating sexual violence. Vann stated on his interrogation video that he had something inside him and would act when he became angry or triggered - he gave an example of being denied his ID and it sent him into a rage. This would fit with possible insubordination in the military. He indicated he killed Afrika Hardy because she hit him.
Victim Selection
Vann was transient in the 90’s around the US and may have committed more murders of an escalatory manner, but I can find no records of earlier offences. Vann’s victims are sex workers (found on Craigslist or back room) or local sex workers near to where he resided, he would also prey on other vulnerable women such as drug addicts and those in need of support or money. He had no specific age range and offended on victims between the ages of 18 and 55 years of age, predominantly African American and method of killing was strangulation.
The victims would be found in low socioeconomic areas, with dilapidated or abandoned buildings which were utilised as murder or deposition sites. In one case in Gary, Indiana he stowed two victims bodies in the same property.
Creating A Blueprint for Further Analysis
We used the evidence that convicted Vann in 2014. Using his confession, the reports of the victims and the area in which he killed was a low socioeconomic areas, with high drug use, and many empty buildings. The offences of the first 6 victims were clustered around Manhattan and Massachusetts street. All these offences were within a few miles, and few mile square radius. The only exception is the murders of Afrika Hardy at Motel 6 - this was probably because he had to book her time and luring her to an abandoned building was not an option. As such, this was excluded from the final analysis.
We analysed this data and found that the offender would have been based in a 3-mile radius of the cluster in Gary. It is known that he had a vehicle (Black SUV) but the 3 mile radius with a decay area (maximum offending area) of 5 miles.
The Chicago Heat Map & Potential Linked Victims
Using the information above and the mapped data from Murder Accountability Project (MAP) put together by Thomas Hargrove:
Using this data set and the above blueprint for appropriate variables we ran the data using the South Side Terminal hotspot (as indicated by Vann in the interrogation video - said he used public transport to come to Chicago from Indiana). Using this as a potential base (we did not, or could not find any specific places where Vann resided) and the victim data from MAP we edited the data to reflect what is publicly known about Vann and his incarceration. In 2009 he was convicted of a sexual assault in Texas and was sentenced to 5 years. All offences from 2009 onwards were excluded from the analysis as he was arrested in 2014 soon after being released from prison.
We ran the analysis using Rossmo’s formula for geographical profiling. Below images shows the heatmap and know offence locations. The heat map shows most likely areas and crimes in red and sliding down to blue as less likely (I will upload the HTML file to my site later and post the link).
Findings
From the analysis it highlighted a red heat spot near the South Transit Hub and we identified 4 individuals with varying degrees of probability:
Victims
Lisa Johnson - Manually strangled, found in vacant building, 2.8 miles from Transit Hub. Probability 90%
Sandra Miller - Ligature Strangulation, found near transit hub, 3.5 miles from Transit Hub. Probability 85%
Carla Thompson - Manual Strangulation, transient victim, 4.2 miles from Transit Hub. 70% Probability.
Maria Lopez - Manual Strangulation with blunt force trauma (possible that this was to control the victim), abandoned near 47th street - could be a possible escalation crime or improvisation. 75% Probability.
Results
We have potentially identified 4 potential victims - however, we are well aware that not having a definitive place where he stayed or was located that this will influence the outcome. Vann would be classified as a marauding criminal in this case as he travelled in from Gary. We chose the transport hub as this was the most logical place where he would’ve arrived, but this doesn’t mean that he stayed anywhere near, and that these findings are only linked because of the choice to base our analysis.
How Can You Help?
If you are a member of law enforcement or associated legal professions who can provide more insight and details I’d love to hear from you so please feel free to DM me.
I need to find more specifics on victimology and Vann’s MO to be able to link the crimes better - I’ve seen that I can apply for FOIA but wonder if anyone may have this information for Gary or Chicago already?
If you have been looking into these offences and want to partner up or share ideas/theories also DM me.
If you have questions then get in touch.
If you any clarifications or I’ve made an error in the data then please give me a shout.
Look forward to your thoughts, comments and help.
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