IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 - #14

[bx2]

The testimony of CR and MB would contradict that.

ETA: actually just MB.

Maybe. Did he see her go there or is he basing that on JR telling him the next day that she came over?

 

[VeryVeritas]

I really don't understand the discussion of this supposed sighting as if it was a fact. Police pretty much discounted it, and they aren't looking for any "mystery men." So why should anyone be coming forward?

Why should we discount it?

 

[bx2]

There are approximately 115 stranger abductions of children, approximately half of which end in murder, which brings the total down to 57 (which is about 1 in 2 Million since there are around 100 million children under 18) . The number of adults abducted is sad to be far less(could not find exact number), so if you narrow it white, female between 18 and 21, yes it starts to increase the odds more. Then, factor in the very small window of opportunity - I think it's more like 1 in 5 billion, but raised the chance to 1 in 500 million to be conservative. Show me some better math and maybe I'll be convinced of some higher odds, but it's certainly no higher than it is for a child stranger abduction/murder and that still puts is as the least likely statistical option.

I get that the chances of a stranger abduction are very low, but how much does that figure change when you are already GIVEN a disappearance has occurred?

 

[holly2325]

IMO, if LE felt it was a random abduction, there would be so much more in the way of warnings, added protection in area, talk of buddy system, profile of an abductor. I'm going to age myself big time with this bit of information....I was at Florida State University during the Chi O sorority murders by Ted Bundy. Granted the girls had been murdered, but they didn't have a suspect. I realize LS is missing and it is different, but the tone on campus of fear continued for a very long time. No one felt safe. Do you feel LE's actions show they are worried about the a repeat abduction?

If LE does not have evidence that rules out an abduction, I think it is unethical for them not to issue advisories.

 

[VeryVeritas]

I dont believe the mystery man story. The police has no reason not to acknowledge it if true. I think the witness is reliable and was trying to be helpful, but I suspect that she mixed up the times and it was earlier that night.

I agree that a scenario in which several POIs are involved is very possible. We have a POI claiming that she left alone at 4.30 AM. And we have to assume that she left, while she was intoxicated, probably on cocaine and xanax, barefoot and without keys to go home. It makes no sense. Who would let a person in that condition to go home without keys. At 4.30 AM. Then we have another POI claiming "memory loss". Although it is possible that one or both of them are telling the truth, in both cases the stories are hard to believe.

The 3:38 witness is a local bartender who was working that night right? Surely she would know when she left work. To be off by an entire hour when she cites a specific time to the minute wouldn't make sense to me. Either she is correct about the time or she is lying, or her 99% certainty of it being LS is wrong. But being off by an hour could probably be verified by co-workers, etc... I don't know where she works but if the bars typically close at 2:30 and then there is cleanup lasting for 1 hr, you don't confuse a few minutes with an entire hour.

 

[The Smurf]

There are approximately 115 stranger abductions of children, approximately half of which end in murder, which brings the total down to 57 (which is about 1 in 2 Million since there are around 100 million children under 18) . The number of adults abducted is sad to be far less(could not find exact number), so if you narrow it white, female between 18 and 21, yes it starts to increase the odds more. Then, factor in the very small window of opportunity - I think it's more like 1 in 5 billion, but raised the chance to 1 in 500 million to be conservative. Show me some better math and maybe I'll be convinced of some higher odds, but it's certainly no higher than it is for a child stranger abduction/murder and that still puts is as the least likely statistical option.

While I agree that this is probably the least likely option, statistically, and based on what we know-you are making a HUGE error in the way you are figuring your statistics. Their are countless missing persons cases that go unsolved. People who dissapear and are never heard from again. Some of these are obviously stranger abductions. There are dead bodies that turn up and no one knows what happened to them. Some of these involve stranger abduction. You are correct that more people meet foul play at the hands of someone they know. But, stranger abduction is the hardest type of missing person case to solve. Especially without a crime scene. Without DNA or eyewitnesses LE has little to go on when a stranger takes someone.

 

[PineMushroom]

When Mr Spierer was thanking the IU community, was he including IU Hillel? I assume he was but maybe there is a reason I shouldn't ... The reason I ask is because IU Hillel were the first start organizing searches out of Smallwood and were according to Forward magazine:

Jewish Groups Spearhead Effort To Find Missing Indiana University Student
Hillel Searches for Lauren Spierer

By Andrew Tobin
Published June 16, 2011.

Read more: http://www.forward.com/articles/138786/#ixzz1Qs4GUtJJ

And then after the move of the command center to McNutt (with Smallwood remaining only as an information center) there was no mention of Hillel and their efforts in the news after the move to McNutt on the 18th. Was the June 14th donation of $50K from the IU Foundation which prompted the move to McNutt?

Are changes to who "spearheads" search efforts common in missing person cases, what are change based on? Professional personnel brought in? Logistics? Perceived conflicts? Search donations?

If anyone familiar with this aspect of missing persons cases (i.e., volunteer search organization, who heads up, etc) I would be interested in hearing more about it. I can see why a move to McNutt would be better (more parking for example, larger space, perhaps rent free instead of renting Smallwood space) but I am interested in hearing about how search organization has worked (or failed?) in other cases. Thanks. Links are welcome.

Still learning about this stuff so I have questions about procedures etc.

 

[VeryVeritas]

no, i don't necessarily think she walked to jws at 3:00. I was saying that if she did walk to jws, it wasn't as far as people claimed. As for the rest...i don't think jr is telling the truth, simple as that. I've always been bothered by the inclusion of the 4:15 phone call and the 4:30 sighting because absolutely nothing backs them up.

The reason i think 2:30-3:00 is the crucial time is that something seemed to happen at smallwood which completely changed the course of the evening. I also think the 2:51 sighting is more critical because we're not certain who she came through the alley with.



As i clarified later, i don't question the ability of good friends freaking out and ditching dead bodies. What i do question is good friends, in the condition they were likely in during this evening, being able to ditch ls' body without detection or leaving traces in their apartment(s). And, if she wasn't seizing or spraying fluids, then i would say it's just as likely her friends assumed she'd passed out and would still wake up in the morning.



Again, i don't think jr is telling the truth at all. As far as i'm concerned, nothing he reported to the police should be considered accurate.

agreed

 

[VeryVeritas]

This is how I feel as well. To me all the scenarios are extremely unlikely and in this "choose your poison" scenario, I'm going with stranger abduction most likely on a walk from 5North to JW's house. Just my $.02

So why not call JW instead of the supposed call to DR?

 

[cluciano63]

If LE does not have evidence that rules out an abduction, I think it is unethical for them not to issue advisories.

LE in Portland have called Kyron's disappearance an "isolated incident" for over a year now, without even naming a POI. We all know of course that they suspect his step-mother, but they have not been able to charge her in all of this time. Police just don't like issuing those warnings and the city managers and tourism boards like it even less. IMO they only issues such warnings these days if they have no choice, meaning if there is no suspect pool at all.

 

[goodgirl65]

For those of you with an interest in Forensic Astrology, there is a new reading posted here on WS on that thread...we can't discuss it or bring it here, just FYI, FWIW...

Im pretty new here and My Bad that i didnt explicitly read the TOS (long version). I figure common sense, respecting another's rights(both on here or related to the case) is the key to those terms..Of course, not to mention some of the other regulations I've learned just reading through pages and pages of threads...

So i ask any who care to answer my ignorance...Why cant we refer to the Forensic Astrology forum or any posts there having to do with this, or any other case in this particular forum? Is it a challenge to religious beliefs, thus therefore distasteful? Im just confused because its just another tool, like using a psychic, except with some scientific backup data.

Just wondering....

 

[cluciano63]

When Mr Spierer was thanking the IU community, was he including IU Hillel? I assume he was but maybe there is a reason I shouldn't ... The reason I ask is because IU Hillel were the first start organizing searches out of Smallwood and were according to Forward magazine:

Jewish Groups Spearhead Effort To Find Missing Indiana University Student
Hillel Searches for Lauren Spierer

By Andrew Tobin
Published June 16, 2011.

Read more: http://www.forward.com/articles/138786/#ixzz1Qs4GUtJJ

And then after the move of the command center to McNutt (with Smallwood remaining only as an information center) there was no mention of Hillel and their efforts in the news after the move to McNutt on the 18th. Was the June 14th donation of $50K from the IU Foundation which prompted the move to McNutt?

Are changes to who "spearheads" search efforts common in missing person cases, what are change based on? Professional personnel brought in? Logistics? Perceived conflicts? Search donations?

If anyone familiar with this aspect of missing persons cases (i.e., volunteer search organization, who heads up, etc) I would be interested in hearing more about it. I can see why a move to McNutt would be better (more parking for example, larger space, perhaps rent free instead of renting Smallwood space) but I am interested in hearing about how search organization has worked (or failed?) in other cases. Thanks. Links are welcome.

Still learning about this stuff so I have questions about procedures etc.

From cases I have seen, professional groups will often come in and work with parents and volunteers, offering them the benefit of their expertise, teach them searching techniques, sometimes appoint a designated search leader, advise them on how to talk to media, things like that. And then they usually leave after a few days or a week or so. They may return at a later date if new searches are planned or more training is needed. Klaaskids.org is one such group that works with the families of missing children and even young adults, upon request. They went to help Michelle Le's family, even though she is 26, and also Hailey Dunn, 13.
Neither has been found, sadly...

 

[cluciano63]

Im pretty new here and My Bad that i didnt explicitly read the TOS (long version). I figure common sense, respecting another's rights(both on here or related to the case) is the key to those terms..Of course, not to mention some of the other regulations I've learned just reading through pages and pages of threads...

So i ask any who care to answer my ignorance...Why cant we refer to the Forensic Astrology forum or any posts there having to do with this, or any other case in this particular forum? Is it a challenge to religious beliefs, thus therefore distasteful? Im just confused because its just another tool, like using a psychic, except with some scientific backup data.

Just wondering....

A Mod can answer better, I'm sure, but I think it is just separate from the main case threads so as not to prompt arguments about the validity, accuracy, etc...it is what it is, some folks feels very strongly about this sort of analysis and others feel as strongly that it has no bearing on these cases. Personally, the cases I have seen here that have had this analysis done have been startling accurate and I am a huge cynic as a rule.

 

[VeryVeritas]

For those who are suspecting JR was directly involved in the disappearance, I'm curious as to what your thoughts are on why he would voluntarily admit to seeing LS at all.

If, from the very beginning, he had maintained that he never saw her after she left his place for Sports, do we know anything at all that would contradict that?

I can think of 2 reasons (but you also have to ask why he has said so little)

1) Because so many people say she went with him and/or to his place
2) His story was to take focus off of what really happened

 

[Arnold Palmer]

Maybe his buddy who was visiting him at the time had his watch set to MI time. Aren't they an hour ahead?

Michigan and Indiana are on the same time.

 

[VeryVeritas]

Maybe his buddy who was visiting him at the time had his watch set to MI time. Aren't they an hour ahead?

LE can verify when the call was made, and apparently have done so. So why would you be exactly correct to the minute on one thing and then 1 hr off on another thing that supposedly occurred at the exact moments following? And in fact, why would JR even give a range? If she called DR and then walked out right after that, then there is no time range at all - it was 4:15. He should know if it was 15 seconds vs. 15 minutes if he actually watched her leave and turn the corner on N. College.

 

[VeryVeritas]

I get that the chances of a stranger abduction are very low, but how much does that figure change when you are already GIVEN a disappearance has occurred?

Do the odds of winning the lottery change because someone wins it?

 

[VeryVeritas]

While I agree that this is probably the least likely option, statistically, and based on what we know-you are making a HUGE error in the way you are figuring your statistics. Their are countless missing persons cases that go unsolved. People who dissapear and are never heard from again. Some of these are obviously stranger abductions. There are dead bodies that turn up and no one knows what happened to them. Some of these involve stranger abduction. You are correct that more people meet foul play at the hands of someone they know. But, stranger abduction is the hardest type of missing person case to solve. Especially without a crime scene. Without DNA or eyewitnesses LE has little to go on when a stranger takes someone.

I did ask for people to show me otherwise, but you have NOT done so. I used real published data not my "feeling" about what I see reported on TV.
The odds of being abducted and murdered by a stranger are at least 1,000 times higher than dying from prescription medication. So, while either is POSSIBLE, which is most PROBABLE?

 

[LittleAMom]

I choose number 4, too. I think it's plausible that there was someone out there looking for an "opportunity." People who want to take advantage of others have to choose their moment, and what better place and time than in a area trafficked by drunk coeds occasionally. It could have even been someone watching from the comfort of a window. Sick people are looking for these chances.

I used to get in my car and put my wallet in my glove comparment. I remember once time I had a bunch of library books in my arms and I remembered in the middle of the street that I left my wallet in my glove compartment. I paused in the middle of the street, debating whether I should go back and get it, and decided not to. The next day, my passenger side window was broken and my wallet gone from my glove compartment. Coincidence? I don't think so.

I haven't studied all the posts here, but I do think it's plausible LS would have walked to JW's place. Maybe she was offered a ride along the way, or maybe she was nabbed.

The question is how do you interpret the key dropping? Did she drop them while helping CR home and was too drunk to hear them or feel them fall? Or did she drop them because someone approached her suddenly?

 

[holly2325]

LE can verify when the call was made, and apparently have done so. So why would you be exactly correct to the minute on one thing and then 1 hr off on another thing that supposedly occurred at the exact moments following? And in fact, why would JR even give a range? If she called DR and then walked out right after that, then there is no time range at all - it was 4:15. He should know if it was 15 seconds vs. 15 minutes if he actually watched her leave and turn the corner on N. College.

Wouldn't the police get the time stamp of the call off of Rohn's phone?