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Fnu Lnu
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Yes! That’s exactly who I was thinking of, great call (esp considering I was way off on the name AND the date haha)
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Israel Keyes: General Discussion
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Yes! That’s exactly who I was thinking of, great call (esp considering I was way off on the name AND the date haha)
dub
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So, I went back and considered the timeline again in relation to Lauren Spierer, and if Keyes was able to get a morning direct flight from AK to IL (not necessarily a given, but I have no idea how to confirm or deny the possibility) then it definitely would have been possible. If it was like a 5am or 6am flight the timeline wouldn't even be that tight, he could have been in Bloomington by 10pm on 6/2.
I also realized two factors that I hadn't considered before that, taken together, make it more likely that Keyes was involved:
a.) ALL of Keyes' toll transactions were on 6/3 (rather than some being on 6/2)
b.) the fastest route from Chicago to Bloomington does NOT involve taking I-90 in Indiana
We don't know when Keyes landed in Chicago on 6/2, but unless he arrived at say 10pm or later, he would have hit tolls on 6/2 if he drove straight across. To me this makes it a strong possibility that he did NOT go directly to the toll road after landing in Chicago. (Of course he also could have just arrived in Chicago and crashed for the night like a normal person, but, unlike in VT days later, there's no indication of him booking a hotel on the timeline).
ETA: the more I look at it, the timeline for traveling to Vermont makes no sense unless Keyes made at least some kind of side trip en route. Even if he stayed in Chicago on 6/2, and only drove 8 hours a day thereafter (which is NOT like him to begin with) he should have arrived in VT late afternoon or evening on 6/4, rather than on 6/5. He has a LOT of time unaccounted for between 6/2 and 6/5.
I changed my mind, now I'm at least 50/50 that Keyes actually did do it. And the fact that the FBI withheld files on the case, plus their knowing the times and locations of the toll transactions, suggests to me that they feel pretty strongly that he did too.
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The toll road dates are a really good point. I wonder if there is any information available about the time he landed in Illinois. I also find it curious that those toll road charges are even on the timeline - forgive my ignorance, but I have no knowledge of toll roads at all. Is using cash an option? Did he use a credit card so that he could be placed far away from the crime he had just committed? The charges definitely tighten up his timeline with the illusion of an alibi, which is a big part of his MO.
As for the extra time between landing in Illinos and the Currier abduction, IK also visited his mother in Harlan, Indiana before heading to VT, so that accounts for some of that time.
I have been taking notes while listening to TCBS every time anything comes up about Lauren Spierer. Here are some extra things that I can add, all sourced from TCBS:
- Keyes' MO is to travel somewhere first to place a kill kit and scope it out, usually near the home of a family member. IK was in Indiana in December 2007 during a warm winter, making it possible that he was able to dig a hole to bury a kill kit. Or perhaps if he was unable to dig, he could have placed it concealed above land like he did with his Blake Falls Reservoir kit. On this December 2007 trip, he rented a vehicle from Fort Wayne, IN and put 537 miles on it. Perhaps he placed a kit in the Hoosier National Forest. A round trip from Fort Wayne through Bloomington and into the Hoosier forest would account for much of that mileage. If Keyes is responsible for the Seymour, IN bank robbery on April 8/10 (I believe he is), he also might have used this same kill kit for that robbery and for two additional kidnappings in the following days on a 2010 trip.
- LS was abducted 3 hours from IK's mother's home in Harlan. Keyes went back to Indiana to visit his mother within a week of Lauren's disappearance.
Keyes' MO also included revisiting an area where he had discarded a victim before much time had passed. Just my own speculation here: Perhaps this revisiting is to revel in his crime and just *be* in the place where a body is, but I suspect this could be to necrophile or move a body, or just check on it. He did this with SK (hid her body and disposed of it weeks later, with sightings of him visiting Matanuska Lake following the finished disposal), and he did this with the Curriers (drove past the Curriers' area to see what was going on within a short time of their abduction).
- In IK's own words, he was planning to "go all out" when he was doing the Currier abduction. In my opinion, this sounds like it could be a "last hurrah" for someone who is about to be caught. I wonder *if* he did abduct Lauren, maybe he felt like he did a sloppy job and was going to be caught. There were reports released by a PI in Lauren's case which stated that the last man to see her alive may have seen a figure in the shadows intercept her as she was walking away. Of course, we take that with a grain of salt. However, if Lauren's friend's account is to be believed, maybe he saw IK. Maybe IK felt certain that he was seen. Perhaps this is why he used this Indiana toll road as a desperate attempt at placing himself as far away as he could be, as quickly as possible, while still appearing to head in the right direction to his mother's house in Harlan.
- IK had a "thing" for abducting couples. If you believe he picked and stalked the Curriers long before the abduction, then you might agree that he already had male/female couple on his mind during this trip. It is possible that if IK was staking out a nearby parking lot, maybe he heard LS walk past with her male friend and say something like, "OK let's go to your house for a bit, but can you walk me home soon? I don't want to stay over." This is obviously 100% my own thoughts and speculation, but if IK overheard something like this, he could have been plotting and waiting for LS and her male friend. Whenever LS emerged, he went for it.
- Alright, sorry this post is so dang long. One last thing that I have been thinking: LS was abducted near a Waffle House. When IK abducted Samantha, he parked in a large lot near an IHOP. This point is a stretch, but maybe he knew that he could stake out a 24 hr breakfast spot to stalk victims without drawing attention. Maybe he first spotted LS because he was hanging out near a Waffle House.
I'd love to hear if anything has anything to add/refute about this!!
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dub
Fnu Lnu
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All kinds of good info here, thanks.
1. I've looked extensively for details on his exact itinerary but no luck. We could look at Alaska Airlines' schedule and get an idea of how it might have looked, considering it's highly likely Keyes took a direct flight and Alaska I don't think has too many of those to Chicago, but nowadays with COVID I doubt the flight schedules remotely resemble what they did in 2011. I actually did peek at that earlier (using similar dates to Keyes but in 2021) and it was no help in narrowing it down.
2. Not all toll roads work the same way in how and when they charge you. I drove that stretch once a long time ago and if I recall I think you pay as you exit, but I'm not sure. Either way the tolls capture license plates so I don't think the payment method is important.
What IS strange about the tolls is that the FBI specifically highlights the fact that Keyes hit tolls in Indiana, but did not mention anything like that in New York, where I-90 is also a toll road and is likely the route he took to get to VT. I've always wondered why that was, not that it matters, it's just weird.
3. Was the info about visiting Harlan from TCBS? I've never heard that before. And just to clarify, you're saying he went twice, both on the way to VT and on the way back?
4. I've never heard anything suggesting that this is the case, and American Predator, if I recall, seems to suggest the opposite. Is there something in TCBS indicating he staked out the Curriers way in advance?
Murkywaters
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Are you referring to the files on the FBI website? Josh Hallmark did a FOI request and received a lot more additional documents to which he had to pay a fee for. He's actually still receiving documents.
In the documents Josh received, certain MP names were redacted while others were not. Josh remarked the FBI really focused quite a lot on Delmar Wayne Sample, Kimberly Forbes name was also mentioned in one of his files.
cujenn81
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Oh, okay. I didn’t know the documents he received were different than the others. I’ll delete.
Murkywaters
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That's okay, I hope there will be some bombshells in some of the new reports he will get. Josh has said Law Enforcement as well as an FBI are listening to his podcast, so that is good news.
cujenn81
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Interesting! I listened to season one several months ago (I had never even heard of Israel Keyes before that — which almost seems impossible to me, considering my long love affair with true crime). After I listened to TCB Season One, I read American Predator by Maureen Callahan. And now... I’ve almost caught up with the new season of TCB (just finished the second episode today). Although, I must admit that I’m often at work when I listen and sometimes I miss things.
TCB currently has me super intrigued about Kimberly’s brother, IK’s time in Sacramento, and who might possibly be trying to cover Keyes tracks.
dub
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I hadn't noticed this before, he only passed through three tolls in Indiana? By my count, there are 23 tolls on I90 in Indiana, what could have possibly led him to only hit three of them? Why not just avoid them altogether?
I promise I'm done with the tolls now haha I just find that profoundly strange. In any case, based on the location and time of those tolls I'm sure the FBI is well aware of whether Keyes could have killed Lauren Spierer or not, and they will never let the public know either way.
Also, different subject, but here is a source that mentions the FBI effectively ruling out Del Sample and Gil Gilman as Keyes victims (since I didn't have one off hand last night). I seriously have trouble believing that he wasn't involved in at least one of the two, but I guess that's the official word.
FBI: No link between missing man, serial killer Israel Keyes | Peninsula Daily News
Murkywaters
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Yes, that was discussed in one of the episodes. I remember Josh stating he has received word that Keyes has NOT been ruled out in Delmar Sample's case despite the FBI previous stating that he was. It appears there's a lot of conflicting information regarding this. It would be a good idea for the FBI to go on the record and clear up the misinformation in this case.
Yes this is all from TCBS, and sorry, I have been trying to find exact episodes/timestamps to cite but I think there’s something like 30 hours of TCBS to sort through and it’s hard to find some of these snippets! I don’t think the Harlan visits in June/11 is listed on any timelines, but I know that Josh from TCBS has connections with IK’s family, so he knows a lot of additional timeline insights that are provided by IK's mom or siblings.
Source for Keyes' first known trip to Indiana in December '07, including details for theory for IK's kill kit being hidden in the Hoosier Forest: S01E13, 11:00.
Timestamp for Keyes' first stop in Harlan on June 3rd: Keyes arrived in Chicago on the evening of June 2nd. Showed up at his mother's house (just 3.5 hours away from Chicago) on the afternoon of June 3rd. There is no evidence that he was in any hotels on the night of June 2nd. He is also unaccounted for on June 4th and 5th. (S01E13, 10:00).
Could he be abducting and then disposing of LS during these unaccounted times? The timeline really fits. IK also speaks a lot about becoming interested in media attention after "the Currier.. thing" or the "the time of the Curriers," and he won't speak about anything that happened on that trip before the Curriers. He is super evasive and seems on edge about that time frame.
Between the Currier abduction on June 8th/11 and his departure from Chicago on June 15th, there is quite a bit of time not accounted in the FBI timeline. On TCBS S01E12, IK states that after the Currier abduction and murder, he travelled straight to Maine to visit his brothers after being up all night (15:00). He drove back through VT after a few days of being in Maine to check to see if the Curriers' car was where he had left it (16:50). Then, he went back to Constable, NY for a few days because he felt like Vermont might be risky with the police investigation into the Curriers' disappearance (35:30). This NY trip is when he disposed of the guns in his Blake Falls cache.
Timestamp for discussion of Keyes' second trip to Harlan on this June/11 trip: [I'm searching for this timestamp, will update when I find!]
For point 4, there is some circumstantial evidence that he may have stalked the Curriers.
Timestamp for possible stalking of Curriers: S2E08, starting at 13:30.
- Lorraine told a friend that she believed she was being stalked by a tall, lean man with dark, greasy hair in April 2011. Lorraine purchased a gun for protection when she believed she was being watched. She bought the gun on Oct 3rd/09.
- IK waffles when talking about he chose the Curriers in his interviews. He says that he chose them because their backyard looked like they didn’t have any young kids, but another day he says he chose them because he broke into Lorraine’s car and saw a document that showed her birthday so he knew they were older. He also states that it was a stormy night when he staked out the house for the first time. The night of the Currier’s abduction was not stormy at all. IK said he was looking for a bungalow with an attached garage, but there were a lot of homes with that description surrounding the Handy Suites Hotel that he was staying. His reasons are scattered. They seem like retrospective "reasons" that he could give to detach himself from his victims. (S2E08, 28:30).
- one of Lorraine’s coworkers reported that IK stalked her one night while she was driving alone on a highway (I think this in S2E10 or S2E11).
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dub
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Right on, sorry, it wasn’t my intention at all for you to pull exact time stamps, but what you’ve provided thus far is definitely appreciated.
I previously hadn’t listened to TCBS but I started it today, so I’ll get to all of it eventually.
MesquiteO21
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so regarding IK's reaction to being shown LS's pic...what you are all saying is new to me cuz I could've sworn in Maureen's book American Predator she said that he laughed when shown her picture and said they (FBI/investigators) would have to do better than that (implying, presumably, that his victims weren't as well-known as LS). I'll double check the book when i get home tonight but i'm like 99% sure it was LS Maureen was talking about.
Yup you’re right, there’s a part about Lauren in American Predator. However, I took it a different way than you read it. Here’s the quote from the book:
So Bell brought in a photo of Spierer and confronted him.
“Did you do this?” Bell asked. “People are going to think you did this. You were in Indiana that night.”
Keyes laughed.
“That’s how hard it’s going to be,” he said, “for you guys to figure it out.”
(I bought the book on my phone so I don’t have an accurate page number, sorry! It is the last lines of chapter 30.)
I have always taken this line as IK saying “there’s no proof, is there? I’m good at what I do. Maybe I did it, maybe I didn’t. You’re gonna have to figure that out. I’m giving you nothing.”
but I could be so wrong! This is just how I perceived those lines. However, I do take a grain of salt when referencing American Predator. Callahan makes some pretty loosey goosey claims IMO. Her bio-hacking theory is kinda silly, and she suggested Keyes could be the Boca Raton mall killer. Josh from TCBS has recently said that is almost geographically impossible for Keyes.
At the end of the day, I just really trust TCBS as a source. Josh has done phenomenal investigations and the FBI made a whole lot of mistakes. Callahan’s book seems to be largely from the FBI perspective, whereas Josh has taken a lot of info from Keyes’ friends and family as well. Josh has a more whole picture of Keyes and understands him more, whereas Callahan painted IK in a very one-dimensional way, IMO.
The timestamp of TCBS with the claims about IK’s reaction when shown Lauren’s photo is: S2E15, 1:00:00 - 1:07:30. Josh speaks with Bobby Chacon (he was the FBI team member that lead the dives in American Predator). Chacon can’t confirm anything because of his position in the FBI, so it’s not exactly a source. The following interview clip of Keyes shows how evasive he was when talking about anything before the Curriers on that same trip.
IK’s reaction to LS’s photo is really just a rumor because that interview has been kept secret, but Josh claims to have heard this info from a “source close to the investigation.” So, you can definitely take that with a grain of salt as well.
MesquiteO21
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thanks for providing that info and those citations! i guess knowing Keyes' demeanor and such, i took the laughing and 'that's how hard it's going to be' as him amused that the FBI thinks his victims, or some of them, were that well-known. i kind of took it to mean "dig deeper" and look for other missing people that weren't as high profile. but like you said, different interpretations and such.
i'll have to look into why Josh claims it's almost impossible for IK to be the Boca Raton mall killer cuz i think he's a good suspect for it. The endlessly frustrating thing about Keyes' locations is that we will never be 100% sure exactly where he was and how much time he did or did not spend in a place. He was crafty as all heck, and really good at making it look like he was in two places at once.
This is such a good point!! While Josh claims he has looked into it, I agree that Keyes just fits so well with those murders.
Josh has not discussed the Boca Raton murders on the podcast, but he recently said that he does not think it could possibly be Keyes on a GetVokl video that he posted on his Patreon, so it was really just a conversational snippet and not much info was given. The sketches and descriptions for BR are just so dang Keyes. Like you said, the worst thing about all of this is that we will likely never know anything for sure.
dub
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Yo @Murkywaters does the name Stephanie Lynn Lewis by chance pop up in your TCBS archive? From Lumberton, North Carolina?
I've long been very curious about Keyes' October 2004 trip to New Hampshire and am sure he was up to something, but when I checked into it years ago Charley Project was a dead end. But I rechecked on a lark yesterday and Stephanie was added more recently.
Stephanie Lynn Lewis – The Charley Project
(She also has a WS thread but it's super old and only has a couple posts).
The timing and mileage lines up tightly with Keyes' trip (10/6-10/16; Stephanie disappeared 10/12, Keyes traveled 1745 miles and Lumberton NC is ~1640 round trip).
There's minimal info on her disappearance, but she disappeared after leaving work at a Days Inn (the general type of hotel Keyes preferred in his travels), and she was apparently looking for a ride to Virginia, which happened to be the direction Keyes eventually needed to go anyway.
I feel pretty confident that if she's a possible victim she would be on the FBI's radar, just because the only way Keyes could have made it to Lumberton and back within the mileage he logged would have been to take I-95, which has tolls (!!) along much of the route that could place him in the general NC area.
Thoughts?
I've long been very curious about Keyes' October 2004 trip to New Hampshire and am sure he was up to something, but when I checked into it years ago Charley Project was a dead end. But I rechecked on a lark yesterday and Stephanie was added more recently.
Stephanie Lynn Lewis – The Charley Project
(She also has a WS thread but it's super old and only has a couple posts).
The timing and mileage lines up tightly with Keyes' trip (10/6-10/16; Stephanie disappeared 10/12, Keyes traveled 1745 miles and Lumberton NC is ~1640 round trip).
There's minimal info on her disappearance, but she disappeared after leaving work at a Days Inn (the general type of hotel Keyes preferred in his travels), and she was apparently looking for a ride to Virginia, which happened to be the direction Keyes eventually needed to go anyway.
I feel pretty confident that if she's a possible victim she would be on the FBI's radar, just because the only way Keyes could have made it to Lumberton and back within the mileage he logged would have been to take I-95, which has tolls (!!) along much of the route that could place him in the general NC area.
Thoughts?
Murkywaters
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No, Stephanie hasn't been mentioned in the podcast that I'm aware of, but hmmmm, that is interesting!
But yes, it is very clear when Keyes is up to no good. When he's traveling to strange places, racking up large mileage on his rental cars, him turning his phone off during his travels etc.
FBI Requests the Public’s Assistance in Case of Serial Killer Israel Keyes
The FBI released this press release of some of Keyes travels. Two trips in particular are marked as trips where LE believes Keyes may have engaged in criminal activity.
- October 31, 2008 to November 5, 2008: Keyes flew to Seattle following travel to multiple other states, including North Dakota and Arizona. On October 31, Keyes rented a car (2008 PT Cruiser) in Seattle. On November 2, 2008, Keyes flew from Seattle to Boston. He returned to Seattle and flew back to Anchorage on November 5, 2008. Law enforcement believes Keyes may have engaged in criminal activity on this trip and is seeking any information about Keyes activities during this timeframe.
- July 9, 2010 to July 12, 2010: Keyes flew from Anchorage to Sacramento, California and traveled to Auburn, California. He rented a vehicle (black Ford Focus) and drove approximately 280 miles during the three days. Law enforcement believes Keyes may have engaged in criminal activity during this travel and is seeking any information about Keyes activities during this trip.