"Jersey" and MW #3

[Donjeta]

JMO but if I was a burglar I wouldn't enter a home with a crying baby inside. No way, it may awaken the people inside at any moment and I'll get arrested for burglary and accused of hurting the baby.

I suppose arsonists might set fires just because they like fires but burning the clothes to avoid recognition makes no sense if he was going to kill her and dump her body in the woods. No reason why he couldn't have dumped the clothes at the same place, or torched both the body and the clothes at the same time. Her clothing wouldn't be used to recognize her, and if he got caught walking with her he'd be damned anyway, clothes or no clothes. He might as well have kept the clothes on the baby while walking because a man with an appropriately clad baby attracts less negative attention than a naked baby in the night.

 

[Donjeta]

Not a reasonable theory for me. Using your thinking, what did she do with the cell phone she was using to check the email while in the house with the lights on?

Well, she would have had to hide it. What did anybody else do with the phones they used to check the email? Supposedly the phone pings never left the area close to the home so whether the phones were hidden by DB or Jersey or another intruder there's got to be a hiding spot somewhere nearby that wasn't searched by the police in the early hours/days and they may have been moved afterwards (whenever they stopped pinging I guess).

If I'm understanding correctly the police didn't search the entire house thoroughly prior to the search warrant that was executed after the family had already been given access to the home. So there's no telling where the phone could have been inside the house, or if there was another person who she could have given the phones to be hidden (since the police were asking about people coming and going).

 

[jadejazzkayla]

It's good to question, but, no, none of the questions above poke a hole in the theory I posed that John Steven Tanko is good for this crime.

Here's why:

1. Although Mike Thompson did pick a person other than Tanko out of a photo line-up, MT's description (5'7" to 5'8", 140-150 lbs, white T-shirt, salt-and-pepper hair, etc.) matches JT (5'7", 165 lbs, .., bald, etc.) pretty well. And, no, I don't see a big difference between salt-and-pepper hair and bald, especially from across the 48th St. at 4 am. Also, as other posters pointed out, photo line-ups can confuse people because of changes in hair style and what not from the time the pictures were taken. Also, MT waited a week to speak to police, so we might have to limit his observation to not much more than a man with a lightly-clad baby. But, even that limited observation at 4 am, is a shocker of a sighting and matches well with 2 other people's sighting and the BP video. So, yes, I believe it, and I think others should too.

2. Why go thru the window? Because nobody came. Jersey might have tapped on the window, knocked on the wall, knocked on door, who knows? When no one responded he decided that he was going in? Also, I'm not saying this really was "logical". I'm just saying it was "logical" in Tanko's mind. Keep in mind, Tanko took one of the neighbor's dogs, which, according to that neighbor was NOT one to run free. Then, later, Tanko turned the dog over to a shelter. Tanko was also living in other people's homes. This is not someone who respects other people things. No, instead, Tanko has no problem at all going through people's windows (especially if he thinks he has half an excuse to do so as I believe he thought he had in this situation).

3. Next, why didn't the boys wake up? Well, they were tired. Young boys sleep pretty soundly at 11:30 pm after a long day. If anything, they might have tried to tell their mom that Lisa was crying, but, wait, Mom is drunk, that's not going to do much good, is it? So, no, sadly, nothing got done, no one came to the door or to the window, and a well-rested Lisa Irwin cried.

4. Why didn't neighbors hear Lisa? What? This question makes no sense. JT was at the neighbor's house and DID hear Lisa cry. That's what I'm saying. You mean why did other neighbors (not Tanko) hear Lisa cry? Well, other neighbors were inside their houses at 11:30 pm. Tanko, on the other hand, was outside near the Irwin's house. That's why he heard her and came in.

5. I'll skip the exact details question on the timeline for now. Basically the 11:47 call Jersey made to MW's phone was made along the route between the Irwin home and the BP gas station somewhere (before or after) the dumpster. Which came first? I'd have to study more. I'm not quite sure why this matters to you. Basically, Tanko made the call because he wanted to tell MW that he had this baby. He wanted MW's help. When he could not reach her, then he went to a different plan. That plan, somehow, involved walking off toward 48th and N. Randolph Rd. What exactly was his plan? I do not know. I'm not sure even Tanko knew. Meth addicts don't do a whole lot of planning you know.

6. And, no, Tanko didn't change his pants. This is knit-picking the eye-witness sightings. The fact that 3 adults who sighted Lisa with Tanko agree as much as they do (and match the BP video) is already striking agreement condering the typical quality of eye-witness testimony and what people and an old surveillance camera can see across the street. You have to appreciate the agreement and disregard a few small discrepancies.

7. Why did Jersey burn the clothes instead of leaving them at the Irwin house? Because he didn't realized later that Lisa's clothing could allow people to recognize her. Why did he burn the clothes? Because he has a fire bug according to MW and his mutliple-count felony arson conviction.

I could go on and on. No, there are no big holes in the theory that Jersey did it. Instead, it's pretty compelling.

What shocks me is that most people think that Jersey had an alabi even though we've heard nothing about it that this, somehow, rules him out. No, I don't buy that. Jim Spellman doesn't buy it either. No, unspoken alibi's don't count. And it's not that easy to have people vouche for your whereabouts between 11:30 pm and 4 am. Are we suppose to believe the JT was hanging out with one of his meth buddies? Yeah, right. It's really hard to imagine JT having any reasonable alibi and we've heard absolutely nothing of the sort.

Instead, JT is a very, very good suspect in this case. Sure, I hope they find DNA to prove it was him to a near certainty. But, IMHO there's already enough evidence pointing to him to make a good case. And I expect finding Lisa will just add to this evidence. So, please, let's keep up the searches so there can be some justice for Lisa.

wow! what a great and thought out post. I also think Jersey is involved in baby lisa kidnapping and hope that it comes out one day and this family gets the closure they deserve.

thanks for posting this and welcome to websleuths.

 

[yllek]

Mike T, in his last account, says he looked the man in the eye. He said the baby was wearing a diaper and added a t-shirt to his description later. He positiviely ID'd someone from a photo line up. If he was close enough to see what the baby was wearing and see the man's face, certainly he was close enough to see if the man was bald or not.

There are only two possibilities. Mike T either (1) did not see Jersey or (2) he saw Jersey yet he is sure he saw someone other than Jersey, and someone who was not there and is following the case on a crime board knows better what he actually saw than he himself. I think the chances of (2) being the case are remote.

Hard enough to trust eyewitness testimony when the witness's account changes (innocently or not). For anyone who was not a witness to the same sighting to now suggest that Mike T saw a specific individual, when that individual has a visibly distinct charactertistic which does not fit the description and that individual is not the person positively identified by the witness himself, is simply denegrading the eye witness testimony further - to try to fit one's own theory. Fine for theorizing if labeled as opinion, but should/would never be considered a viable consideration by investigators or prosecutors. If this man says he saw Mr. B and he really saw Jersey, he would be considered wholly unreliable and either saw no one, is being deceptive, or is not sure who/what he saw. In this case, his alleged sighting and testimony would be deemed not credible.

JMO...

 

[ExpectingUnicorns]

LOL, DH (who is bald) will be delighted to hear there are some people who will think he has salt and pepper hair. :blowkiss:

 

[Allusonz]

1st BBM : :waitasec: That's a LOT of things to do for a man who is "homeless" with no car, traveling around the neighborhood on foot -- carrying around a 25-30 lb baby, with a knee injury ... :waitasec: Babies "cry" ... so how did he keep Lisa quiet ?


2nd BBM: :waitasec: So ... Jersey broke into the house to respond to a "crying, unattended" baby ? That makes no sense at all ... :waitasec: Let's see ... we have a "homeless man" who feels he is "entitled" to break into a house because the baby is crying and unattended ?

:waitasec: I sure would like to know how many other houses Jersey broke into to respond to "crying, unattended babies" ?


3rd BBM: So if "Jersey did it" -- what would be his MOTIVE ? :waitasec:


MOO ...

On the flip side I don't understand how this would be entirely possible for someone that is black out drunk yet not for a known car thief, arsonist, and individual that is known to go into homes that are not occupied.

If it is believed that it is possible for DB then one must also consider it possible for someone with a history of doing bizarre things.

 

[Allusonz]

Well, she would have had to hide it. What did anybody else do with the phones they used to check the email? Supposedly the phone pings never left the area close to the home so whether the phones were hidden by DB or Jersey or another intruder there's got to be a hiding spot somewhere nearby that wasn't searched by the police in the early hours/days and they may have been moved afterwards (whenever they stopped pinging I guess).

If I'm understanding correctly the police didn't search the entire house thoroughly prior to the search warrant that was executed after the family had already been given access to the home. So there's no telling where the phone could have been inside the house, or if there was another person who she could have given the phones to be hidden (since the police were asking about people coming and going).

DB would of had to do more than just hide them. She would of had to made sure those phones were not pinging after a certain time.

Not following the logic here.

 

[imamaze]

Jersey and MW have a forum?

No forum but they do have a thread dedicated to discussing them both. This is the thread so lets keep the focus on Jersey and MW for this thread and go to the proper areas for other discussions. It makes it really difficult to have to go through several pages that don't have anything to do with the thread so lets stay on topic. Thanks.

Ima

 

[imamaze]

Just to let everyone know... We will be removing any posts that are off topic, lots of good points and posts being made it helps so much more if you put them in the right thread.

Thanks everyone,

Ima

 

[Elley Mae]

DB would of had to do more than just hide them. She would of had to made sure those phones were not pinging after a certain time.

Not following the logic here.

http://media2.nbcactionnews.com/NWT/pdf/20111021_irwinwarrant.pdf

I do believe that the phones are very important in this case, the police think so too, the phones are brought up in the affidavit for the warrant.

 

[Sherbie]

...[snipped and BBM]...

Instead, JT is a very, very good suspect in this case. Sure, I hope they find DNA to prove it was him to a near certainty. But, IMHO there's already enough evidence pointing to him to make a good case. And I expect finding Lisa will just add to this evidence. So, please, let's keep up the searches so there can be some justice for Lisa.

Many of the points you raised are either conjecture or based on rumor. The only actual evidence we know of in this case that has anything whatsoever to do with Jersey is that his ex-girlfriend received a call from DB's phone. At this point, with only that tangential connection, there is no "case" against him at all, IMO.

 

[deoneta]

DB would of had to do more than just hide them. She would of had to made sure those phones were not pinging after a certain time.

Not following the logic here.

She had only to remove the batteries and stick them somewhere, maybe her purse. Jersey on the other hand, if he were the man seen by MT, would have been out of the 1/5 to 1/3 mile radius of the later pings. All MOO.

 

[dog.gone.cute]

MOO ... My responses are in RBM:

It's good to question, but, no, none of the questions above poke a hole in the theory I posed that John Steven Tanko is good for this crime.

Here's why:

1. Although Mike Thompson did pick a person other than Tanko out of a photo line-up, MT's description (5'7" to 5'8", 140-150 lbs, white T-shirt, salt-and-pepper hair, etc.) matches JT (5'7", 165 lbs, .., bald, etc.) pretty well. And, no, I don't see a big difference between salt-and-pepper hair and bald, especially from across the 48th St. at 4 am. Also, as other posters pointed out, photo line-ups can confuse people because of changes in hair style and what not from the time the pictures were taken. Also, MT waited a week to speak to police, so we might have to limit his observation to not much more than a man with a lightly-clad baby. But, even that limited observation at 4 am, is a shocker of a sighting and matches well with 2 other people's sighting and the BP video. So, yes, I believe it, and I think others should too.


Since Mike Thompson waited one week before calling in his "alleged sighting" of a "man carrying a baby" -- AND -- since MT CHANGED his description of what the man was wearing and how the baby was dressed ...

In My Opinion ... MT's "sighting" is NOT credible at all ...


2. Why go thru the window? Because nobody came. Jersey might have tapped on the window, knocked on the wall, knocked on door, who knows? When no one responded he decided that he was going in? Also, I'm not saying this really was "logical". I'm just saying it was "logical" in Tanko's mind. Keep in mind, Tanko took one of the neighbor's dogs, which, according to that neighbor was NOT one to run free. Then, later, Tanko turned the dog over to a shelter. Tanko was also living in other people's homes. This is not someone who respects other people things. No, instead, Tanko has no problem at all going through people's windows (especially if he thinks he has half an excuse to do so as I believe he thought he had in this situation).


:waitasec: What would be Jersey's MOTIVE for going into the house in the first place ?

It is "public record" that Jersey has a "criminal record" ... but WHY would he "kidnap" a baby ? IMO ... it absolutely makes no sense at all for a "homeless man" to kidnap a baby ...


3. Next, why didn't the boys wake up? Well, they were tired. Young boys sleep pretty soundly at 11:30 pm after a long day. If anything, they might have tried to tell their mom that Lisa was crying, but, wait, Mom is drunk, that's not going to do much good, is it? So, no, sadly, nothing got done, no one came to the door or to the window, and a well-rested Lisa Irwin cried.

:waitasec: I am having a hard time believing that 3 people "slept soundly" while the Baby Lisa cried ... Oh -- that's right, Deborah said she was "passed out drunk" ...


4. Why didn't neighbors hear Lisa? What? This question makes no sense. JT was at the neighbor's house and DID hear Lisa cry. That's what I'm saying. You mean why did other neighbors (not Tanko) hear Lisa cry? Well, other neighbors were inside their houses at 11:30 pm. Tanko, on the other hand, was outside near the Irwin's house. That's why he heard her and came in.

:waitasec: So Jersey "just happened" to be "conveniently" standing outside of the Irwin home WHEN the baby was crying ?

Hmmm ... I wonder how many "other babies" Jersey "just happened to hear crying" in the middle of the night while he was conveniently standing outside a home he was about to break into ?


5. I'll skip the exact details question on the timeline for now. Basically the 11:47 call Jersey made to MW's phone was made along the route between the Irwin home and the BP gas station somewhere (before or after) the dumpster. Which came first? I'd have to study more. I'm not quite sure why this matters to you. Basically, Tanko made the call because he wanted to tell MW that he had this baby. He wanted MW's help. When he could not reach her, then he went to a different plan. That plan, somehow, involved walking off toward 48th and N. Randolph Rd. What exactly was his plan? I do not know. I'm not sure even Tanko knew. Meth addicts don't do a whole lot of planning you know.

:waitasec: So Jersey is going to call his EX-GirlFriend and let her know that he "kidnapped" a baby ?

Hmmm ... I am wondering how many women would help their "EX BoyFriend" in the kidnapping and disposal of a baby ?


6. And, no, Tanko didn't change his pants. This is knit-picking the eye-witness sightings. The fact that 3 adults who sighted Lisa with Tanko agree as much as they do (and match the BP video) is already striking agreement condering the typical quality of eye-witness testimony and what people and an old surveillance camera can see across the street. You have to appreciate the agreement and disregard a few small discrepancies.

It is NOT a fact that 3 adults sighted Lisa with Jersey -- these "alleged sightings" have NOT been confirmed by LE.


7. Why did Jersey burn the clothes instead of leaving them at the Irwin house? Because he didn't realized later that Lisa's clothing could allow people to recognize her. Why did he burn the clothes? Because he has a fire bug according to MW and his mutliple-count felony arson conviction.

So ... in the middle of "kidnapping" the baby ... Jersey's "fire bug" took precedence over "everything else" he had to do ?:waitasec:


I could go on and on. No, there are no big holes in the theory that Jersey did it. Instead, it's pretty compelling.

What shocks me is that most people think that Jersey had an alabi even though we've heard nothing about it that this, somehow, rules him out. No, I don't buy that. Jim Spellman doesn't buy it either. No, unspoken alibi's don't count. And it's not that easy to have people vouche for your whereabouts between 11:30 pm and 4 am. Are we suppose to believe the JT was hanging out with one of his meth buddies? Yeah, right. It's really hard to imagine JT having any reasonable alibi and we've heard absolutely nothing of the sort.

Instead, JT is a very, very good suspect in this case. Sure, I hope they find DNA to prove it was him to a near certainty. But, IMHO there's already enough evidence pointing to him to make a good case. And I expect finding Lisa will just add to this evidence. So, please, let's keep up the searches so there can be some justice for Lisa.

BBM: Just because he has a "criminal record" -- which includes "arson" -- does not necessarily make Jersey a "very, very good suspect" in the "kidnapping" of Baby Lisa because of MOTIVE !

WHAT is Jersey's MOTIVE ?


MOO MOO and MOO ...

 

[NKCMike]

I believe that Jersey is an opportunist - he usually has no real plan, just sees something laying around and swipes it. Needs a car so he takes one. I think he waited until D went to bed and then tried to break in. Woke up the baby and tried to shut her up so he wouldn't be caught. Accidentally smothered the baby. Pulled off her clothes trying to save her, panicked and wondered around trying to figure out where to dump the body. Maybe looking for a friend's house. Burned the clothes but couldn't chance burning a body. IMO

 

[dog.gone.cute]

I believe that Jersey is an opportunist - he usually has no real plan, just sees something laying around and swipes it. Needs a car so he takes one. I think he waited until D went to bed and then tried to break in. Woke up the baby and tried to shut her up so he wouldn't be caught. Accidentally smothered the baby. Pulled off her clothes trying to save her, panicked and wondered around trying to figure out where to dump the body. Maybe looking for a friend's house. Burned the clothes but couldn't chance burning a body. IMO

BBM: The Cadaver Dog "hit" in DB's bedroom -- :waitasec: so did Jersey find Lisa in Deborah's bedroom and "smothered" her there ?

See : http://www.kmbc.com/news/29552254/detail.html#ixzz1gXjcVppA

Lisa Irwin Search Warrant Reveals Cadaver Dog 'Hit'

The affidavit also revealed that "On October 17, 2011, an FBI cadaver dog was brought into the residence upon consent of (Jeremy) Irwin and Bradley. The cadaver dog indicated a positive 'hit' for the scent of a deceased human in an area of the floor of Bradley's bedroom near the bed."

:waitasec:

 

[Salem]

BBM: The Cadaver Dog "hit" in DB's bedroom -- :waitasec: so did Jersey find Lisa in Deborah's bedroom and "smothered" her there ?

See : http://www.kmbc.com/news/29552254/detail.html#ixzz1gXjcVppA

Lisa Irwin Search Warrant Reveals Cadaver Dog 'Hit'

The affidavit also revealed that "On October 17, 2011, an FBI cadaver dog was brought into the residence upon consent of (Jeremy) Irwin and Bradley. The cadaver dog indicated a positive 'hit' for the scent of a deceased human in an area of the floor of Bradley's bedroom near the bed."

:waitasec:

I don't know - interesting thought. Maybe he took Lisa in there trying/hoping to wake DB up so she would help him? JMO

Salem

Interesting........

 

[NKCMike]

The house is over 60 years old. A lot of the neighbors are elderly. I hope LE is questioning some of them about previous tenants. They could have done that and are just not releasing the information.

 

[natsound]

I thought we just got a strong indication from the sources of one of our posters in KC that Jersey is not involved in Lisa's disappearance. We might we wasting our time worrying about Jersey's role at this point. JMO

 

[RANCH]

I thought we just got a strong indication from the sources of one of our posters in KC that Jersey is not involved in Lisa's disappearance. We might we wasting our time worrying about Jersey's role at this point. JMO

I missed that post. Which poster and what source?

 

[Chris_Texas]

BBM

That's the puzzler for me as well. One thing I've considered is that there were more people at the house that night that we have not yet heard about. I've always considered this a possibiity and moreso when Young made it clear that one of the questions he wants answered separately by the parents is who was coming and going from the house that night; that question has not been answered to LE's satisfaction.

Witnesses do not need to speak to the media and may have good reason not to do so. LE isn't giving anything up and the parents aren't talking. Samantha Brando isn't saying anything publicly and neither she nor Debbi (in any public account) have confirmed or denied whether others were present. Shane confirmed he was there for a while. He also did not mention whether he was the only one there with the two ladies or not. I believe it's possible that there was more social activity that has not been revealed publicly. Debbi says she was drunk; she doesn't remember some things. She says she often drinks at house gatherings and just goes to bed without saying goodnight to guests.

Could be someone was there hanging out drinking and just picked up a phone off the counter and tried to call Megan around midnight, only to find the phone was restricted. End of story. Maybe Jersey, maybe someone else. I'm not convinced that it has to be Debbi or Jersey who made the attempted midnight call because I don't know whether they have acquaintances in common, but it could be. I also don't think the midnight attempted call and the later attempts to check VM and internet had to have been done by the same person (or even the same phone; there were three allegedly on that counter).

I, like LE, want to know who was coming and going that night. That call might make much more sense if we knew. It might really help to find Lisa too, that is what I want most, along with everyone else here at WS.

Respectfully,

If this were true, and Debby had actually gone to bed leaving some unknown number of others partying in her home, then she would have both a fantastic alibi AND absolutely no reason not to drop every one of these names to the police. This party would have been her story from day one, "We were having a party, I felt sleep/sick to lay down for a minute and fell sleep. When I woke up my baby was gone! Here's who I saw at the party!"

But that's not the story she told initially. It's not even the story she told later, or the story she is going with now.

A few things I think are important with this case. The first is that Debby is a liar. We know this because she lied about what happened that night. There is no reason to believe her now about ANYTHING that she has ever said. The second is that Debby is a serious partier. She parties alone, she parties with friends, while her hubby is at work people are coming and going. It's ALWAYS mommy time for Deborah. Next, I have noticed that apparently everyone has at least a passing familiarity with Jersey and his pals. Everyone, that is, except Debby apparently. Everyone knows everyone it seems, except party mom, who knows no one and no one knows her.

The answer to all this, in my opinion, lies with Deborah. There is a whole lot of history here, a backstory, and a lot of people know all about it, including (I suspect) the police. One thing is as clear today as it was on day one of this crime -- Lisa was not the victim of a kidnapping. That story is a ludicrous now as it ever was.

Sadly, unless Lisa's body is recovered (and in great condition) this case is likely going nowhere. Mom might have neglected her kids, she might have lied to the police, but it's tough to build a murder case out of that. Score one for the bad guys.