Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #26

[Dlk79]

In JC's book, this is what HCW says about the number-

"... we didn't find it because it was registered to CB, rather because we had other information that he had used this number ... We know that he used this number, it was his own normal, personal number..."

Doesn't suggest to me that it was a burner phone.

I also recall seeing an article somewhere that suggested who told them it was the number CB used back in 2007 but can't seem to find it now. For some reason, I thought it was either HB or NF who told them but I could be wrong. They may have other corroborating info too.

 

[Betty_Boop88]

DBM because I screwed up and attributed a quote to the wrong member, apparently

But yeah - there’s also the rumour the number was found in an ex-OC employee’s diary.

Oopsie.

 

[mrjitty]

In JC's book, this is what HCW says about the number-

"... we didn't find it because it was registered to CB, rather because we had other information that he had used this number ... We know that he used this number, it was his own normal, personal number..."

Doesn't suggest to me that it was a burner phone.

I also recall seeing an article somewhere that suggested who told them it was the number CB used back in 2007 but can't seem to find it now. For some reason, I thought it was either HB or NF who told them but I could be wrong. They may have other corroborating info too.

So if it wasn't registered to him i.e. a pay as you go - or "burner" - then we have to assume that somehow other witnesses or call records tie it to him.

e.g if you went through my mobile records in 2004 you could likely figure out my girlfriends PAYG number (burner) even though i have no idea what that number was.

I suspect this aspect was worked out a long time ago - as we know that number was trawled up all the way back in the day - but i do wonder how they know it's his, and how they will prove it.

 

[Trivento]

But yeah - there’s also the rumour the number was found in an ex-OC employee’s diary.

Madeleine McCann: Suspect Christian B was 'tipped off by Praia da Luz hotel worker'

This Sky News article talks a bit about that.. saying CM paper somehow had this info....

"It also reported that the employee had Christian B's mobile phone number in his own phone."

 

[WestLondoner]

This discussion about the phone reminds me of something a senior UK detective once told me when they were investigating a money laundering case we reported to them.

This was that there is an important, but not always obvious, distinction between intelligence and evidence. Broadly, the former leads you to the perp but doesn't necessarily secure a conviction, for which you require the latter.

So someone chucks a brick through a jeweller's window, swipes a load of valuables, jumps into the getaway car, and drives off. A witness calls 999 and says that the thief drove off towards Toytown in a red 06 reg BMW. Police retrieve the brick, and police cars intercept the red BMW en route to Toytown. In it they find the stolen jewellery.

In that situation, the point about the red BMW is intelligence because it tells the rozzers which car to stop. It isn't evidence, because there are lots of red cars. The one that's interesting is the red car that has the swag inside. The case against the thief will not rely on the argument that he's guilty because he was stopped in a red BMW. It will argue that he's guilty because his dabs are on both the brick and the stolen jewellery that were found inside it. These are hard evidence he carried out the robbery and stole the jewellery. The red car just got them there.

In the same way, the phone signal tells us that someone used a phone in the area, and the phone belongs to CB (apparently). That doesn't say a lot, because he lived in PdL - but it's useful intelligence as to who to look into. And in this case, this phone that was in the right area at the right time turns out to belong to a convicted rapist, housebreaker and paedophile.

This useful bit of intelligence then sends you off looking for evidence that either convicts or eliminates that phone's owner. Or the German investigators may have found photographic or other material that links CB with MM. If they then establish that his phone was 50 miles away, that's also useful intelligence. It doesn't conclusively convict or eliminate it him, but it does tend to say he wasn't in the area.

Intelligence can accumulate into circumstantial evidence, which as noted above, can convict you all right - provided the inference from it is reasonable, and is not better explained by something that is more likely.

I suspect this, or something quite like it, may be what is going on with the curious case of CB's phone.

 

[tedtink]

The phone number could have be linked to online accounts that CB had(facebook etc or purchase/shopping accounts) or friends could still have the number on their phones, or in good old fashioned hand written telephone books, as might be the case for some of his older friends.
I don't think it was a burner phone.

I've still got about 5 old numbers, in my phone, for my daughter going back quite a few years

 

[Dlk79]

In the ITV documentary last year, they said the phone number was found during BKA's "subsequent investigations" after CB was brought to their attention following the reported confession. It said that during these "subsequent investigations" they spoke to a number of CB's former associates and that's also what eventually led them to the DM rape they ended up prosecuting him for. I think it's logical that one of CB's former friends also provided CB's phone number he was using at the time. As I said, I'm sure I read/saw something reported that this was the case but cannot find the source at the moment. It wasn't the story about the hotel worker I'm thinking of, though I remember that too.

It's possible of course that they've managed to obtain the number from more than one source. As HCW says it was his "normal, personal number", it would imply it was a number he had used for a period of time and socially. So another place it may have been found is from the people he gave a lift to Spain in the Westfalia just 5 weeks before MM's disappearance.

Madeleine McCann suspect Christian Brueckner in 'kidnap' campervan weeks before she vanished | Daily Mail Online

The article says CB's name was put forward for the lift by a friend, so presumably the people would have obtained CB's phone number in order to arrange everything. Possibly the radio station would have had it too. In the article it says:

Interpol interviewed the woman who travelled with Tomas in June 2019 in Saxony, illustrating how long police have been investigating Brueckner's potential involvement in Madeleine's disappearance.

So we know that they were interviewed quite a while ago by police. It also says:

"When we got there we all hugged him and thanked him and he said he was going on back to Portugal"

A few days later, they got a message from him saying: "Guys, enjoy your remaining days with all your heart, because reality will catch up with you very quickly."

So, if CB messaged them afterwards, it's possible that it was a text message. And if they can recount the exact message he sent them, it could be that they were able to retrieve a copy of it somehow, along with his number. Or possibly the radio station kept records.

 

[Dlk79]

I've still got about 5 old numbers, in my phone, for my daughter going back quite a few years

I've got numbers stored in my phone of people I haven't had any contact with for well over 10 years. Because every time I get a new phone I just copy all my stored numbers straight over automatically and I rarely bother to delete any out. So for anyone who knew CB back in 2007 but hasn't really seen him since (to know that he's changed numbers), it's more than feasible that they might still have his old number stored in their current phone.

ETA: Just had a quick look through my phone conacts out of curiosity and I can't even remeber who half these people are.

 

[Betty_Boop88]

Jumping on the bandwagon!
I still have my ma’s old number on my phone, and she’s been living in the cemetery for nearly 11 years
Also have three numbers saved as “Nathan Wise”, and I remember I was 17 when I saved the first… I don’t know any Nathan Wises, but I do have two active and one old account with a certain building society

And these days with cloud storage it’s all automagic anyway, so no one deletes anything anymore. There’s no telling how many people across however many countries would still have their former weed dealer’s (CB) old number saved.

 

[Betty_Boop88]

I’ve also had the same number since BT Cellnet became O2 - and I haven’t been with O2 for years - so might be possible he was still using this number even recently?

 

[JB1510]

It’s difficult knowing actual phone numbers and who they are attributed to , I don’t know my daughters or my girlfriends off the top of my head , I only know my dads as it’s similar to my own .Some people even have to look to see what their own is . When the BKA did the appeal for the phone number owner who contacted CB i think it would have made sense to appeal to people who possibly had acquaintances who lived or worked in the Algarve to type in the number into their phone and see if it came up in their contacts Rather than just a number that would mean nothing even if it was someone they knew .

 

[snowpea666]

This discussion about the phone reminds me of something a senior UK detective once told me when they were investigating a money laundering case we reported to them.

This was that there is an important, but not always obvious, distinction between intelligence and evidence. Broadly, the former leads you to the perp but doesn't necessarily secure a conviction, for which you require the latter.

So someone chucks a brick through a jeweller's window, swipes a load of valuables, jumps into the getaway car, and drives off. A witness calls 999 and says that the thief drove off towards Toytown in a red 06 reg BMW. Police retrieve the brick, and police cars intercept the red BMW en route to Toytown. In it they find the stolen jewellery.

In that situation, the point about the red BMW is intelligence because it tells the rozzers which car to stop. It isn't evidence, because there are lots of red cars. The one that's interesting is the red car that has the swag inside. The case against the thief will not rely on the argument that he's guilty because he was stopped in a red BMW. It will argue that he's guilty because his dabs are on both the brick and the stolen jewellery that were found inside it. These are hard evidence he carried out the robbery and stole the jewellery. The red car just got them there.

In the same way, the phone signal tells us that someone used a phone in the area, and the phone belongs to CB (apparently). That doesn't say a lot, because he lived in PdL - but it's useful intelligence as to who to look into. And in this case, this phone that was in the right area at the right time turns out to belong to a convicted rapist, housebreaker and paedophile.

This useful bit of intelligence then sends you off looking for evidence that either convicts or eliminates that phone's owner. Or the German investigators may have found photographic or other material that links CB with MM. If they then establish that his phone was 50 miles away, that's also useful intelligence. It doesn't conclusively convict or eliminate it him, but it does tend to say he wasn't in the area.

Intelligence can accumulate into circumstantial evidence, which as noted above, can convict you all right - provided the inference from it is reasonable, and is not better explained by something that is more likely.

I suspect this, or something quite like it, may be what is going on with the curious case of CB's phone.

So slightly away from the phone topic, when HCW says he has concrete evidence MM is dead and |CB did the deed, would be also hard (concrete) evidence ?

 

[WestLondoner]

Depends on exactly what a German speaker means by "concrete", I think.

If he means it in the colloquial sense of "definite" or "solid" that's one thing, and could mean he has unearthed, I don't know, Facebook chats between CB and others, where they discuss what to do with the body. That means she's dead and he either did it or knows who did. But if that's all there is, with nothing else to back it up, he could presumably say he was just mouthing off to impress someone.

If HCW means it in the sense of "forensic", that's different. "Forensic" incidentally just means "of a standard fit to be produced in court", and would imply that something about the nature of the evidence, or how it was acquired, makes it impossible to dismiss or explain away; it would be something irrefutable that points only to him.

 

[Anxala]

If HCW means it in the sense of "forensic", that's different. "Forensic" incidentally just means "of a standard fit to be produced in court", and would imply that something about the nature of the evidence, or how it was acquired, makes it impossible to dismiss or explain away; it would be something irrefutable that points only to him.

I cannot disclose the type of evidence we have been given, it is not forensic I can tell you that but it is new circumstantial evidence which all adds to the working theory that he is the man responsible.

From Police probing Madeleine McCann case 'have dramatic new evidence against Christian Brueckner' | Daily Mail Online

I'm sure someone here (very possibly @SuperdadV8 ? ) gave an explanation at some point as to what both 'concrete' and 'forensic' constitute under German law, as opposed to how those of us in other countries and familiar with different legal systems might interpret the terms.

Perhaps @SuperdadV8 might confirm?

 

[SuperdadV8]

From Police probing Madeleine McCann case 'have dramatic new evidence against Christian Brueckner' | Daily Mail Online

I'm sure someone here (very possibly @SuperdadV8 ? ) gave an explanation at some point as to what both 'concrete' and 'forensic' constitute under German law, as opposed to how those of us in other countries and familiar with different legal systems might interpret the terms.

Perhaps @SuperdadV8 might confirm?

Superdad confirms in the way, that concrete evidence in germany means strong clues or even evidence. Forensic evidence, or criminal forensics in general, means a body or DNA of the victim, the perp or both for example.

Also everything else that has to do with the physical condition of the human "vessel" according to the case. It could even be small pieces of the interieur of a perps car on the victims clothes, or otherwise. Even pollen (?) from the crime scene that can be found on the flowers in a suspects garden.


For example, if a drunk driver is proven to have substances in his blood, it's forensic evidence as well.

A video, picture, confession, witness testimony and so on is not to be seen as forensic evidence in germany.

Forensik – Wikipedia.

 

[SuperdadV8]

By the way, it's not usual for me to talk about myself in the 3rd person!

But "Superdad" had a very stressful workday with too many annoying "chocolate starfishes".

 

[Betty_Boop88]

It gave me a chuckle, @SuperdadV8

Hope your evening is going a bit better!

 

[SuperdadV8]

It gave me a chuckle, @SuperdadV8

Hope your evening is going a bit better!

Thank's dear Betty! Don't worry, that's just work! Everything is fine, having testicular cancer would be much worse i think!

 

[Anxala]

A video, picture, confession, witness testimony and so on is not to be seen as forensic evidence in germany.

Thanks for that, Superdad. That's useful.

So essentially we're back to guessing/speculating about exactly what it is that HCW has (in non-forensic and non-concrete evidence terms) that still confirms his (paraphrasing) 'if you knew what I know, you too would have no doubt' belief that CB is the one.

 

[SuperdadV8]

It gave me a chuckle, @SuperdadV8

Hope your evening is going a bit better!

Thank's dear Betty! Don't worry, that's just work! Everything is fine, having testicular cancer would be much worse i think!

Thanks for that, Superdad. That's useful.

So essentially we're back to guessing/speculating about exactly what it is that HCW has (in non-forensic and non-concrete evidence terms) that still confirms his (paraphrasing) 'if you knew what I know, you too would have no doubt' belief that CB is the one.

His strategy of playing time is annoying me as well! Very unusual. But after almost four years of investigating CB without closing the investigations or making a charge, i become more an more curious about what we are talking about.

BKA since 2017, could be an Helge B. testimony to SY, could be operation "Elysium" as well, or both.

Public appeal of HCW in june 2020, indirectly revealing the suspect. Almost two years later, no progress known so far, except quiet lawyers.

Now almost four years later, nothing known so far, that could point out to a result.

I'm not sure, if all of this is just about CB and MM or maybe based on a bigger origin.

We'll see...