Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #36

[Janosch]

Actually it's an interesting point, why 60 cm, why not a metre, why not 50 cm, why not just scrape the surface.Surely a core sampler would have sufficed.
I think it's just as likely they have have found nothing, and are prepared for it.

• Sources say it would be a 'slight setback' if the lab does not find a sample match

Investigators conducting soil sample analysis in Madeleine McCann case

Investigators are comparing soil samples collected during the recent search for Madeleine McCann with dirt found on the prime suspect's camper van, it has emerged.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Is Dailymail reading us?

 

[Mex]

But only if CB denies visiting such sites, but it may be samples from this reservoir which CB visited are for elimination purposes and another is in their sights.

If samples were taken to determine which reservoir they were identifying for whatever elimination purpose they my have had in mind, I don't think there would have been been such a song and dance about it.

I don't think it is so much what we saw, I think it is more likely that what we didn't see is the interesting part.

 

[Megnut]

Maybe they believe MM was abused/died here, but wasn’t necessarily buried here. They may be trying to establish/place the abuser at the scene of the abuse (photos) via a precise soil match, and also unearth fragments of clothing (MM or CB) in that context. To leverage the prosecution case and justify comprehensive searches for the body in other locations he frequented. Just my thoughts.

I have the feeling based on what we have been reading that indeed they think it is the interim crime scene... what could make them so certain about that cannot just be a verbal tip off. It must be from those photos they say they have from the box factory. The fact that this comes in 2023 could be due to a combination of reasons:
1. They managed only now to geolocate the area shown in the photos
2. With specific tip offs about where he parked his van
3. They managed to go through all the evidence from the van now (analysis takes much time)

They want to establish CB and his van was there. But there must be a link to MM, which based on all the minimal info we get from HCW, it must be of photo of MM without CB in it. Jmo

what else could make them 100% certain CB killed MM and saying things like if the public knew what we know they would reach the same conclusion?! Imo it's the only logical explanation Based on the snippets of info we have and the certainty of the prosecutors and the efforts now to link CB to this place. Jmo

Perhaps they are building corroboration. Not a linear circumstantial case but a parallel one, where the corroboration strengthens BARD. Not just someone's recollection, not just a photo, not just soil....

jmo

 

[Mex]

I still wonder why they only do this now.

Even with corona, this search was easily in summer '21 or in '22

Maybe they hadn't received the evidence which made digging that site of interest at that stage.
Or maybe they thought they didn't have time and already had enough evidence with which to proceed, but circumstances changed to allow them the time and resources to mop up the pieces.
I think we are all in agreement that they are definitely looking for something and have a firm idea of what that is. Our problem is that we don't have that inner knowledge to work out exactly what it is they are after and why. Seems the police are way ahead of us in their thinking.

Checking the soil samples seems a pretty positive initiative and back in the day why would a perpetrator give a thought to miniscule vestiges of soil being tested as evidence

 

[Pixie Child]

Perhaps they are building corroboration. Not a linear circumstantial case but a parallel one, where the corroboration strengthens BARD. Not just someone's recollection, not just a photo, not just soil....

jmo

Yes - they are likely seeking to corroborate their witness evidence. The witnesses can be attacked on the basis of recollection & character and the Prosecution can bolster their witnesses with forensics.

 

[Mex]

But this is only worthwhile if there is something in the sample that is connected to MM e.g. blood. If that’s the case and they can tie CB to the location of the soil through EXIF data then it’s strong.

Dirt from all over is meant to be on the van. It’s only useful if the dirt can tie CB to a time and location or directly to MM.

Nothing will be determined if it isn't looked for. Criminals must watch programmes on forensics quite a lot and have become astute in cleaning up after themselves.

I know if I had committed a crime back in 2007I would have been confident that today the age of the evidence would have destroyed any traces I had overlooked.

Doesn't work like that anymore if dirt can now fill in the gaps when analysed. The technology wasn't there to make that an option sixteen years ago, but they wouldn't be wasting their time on it if they didn't think they can do it now.

 

[Davieson]

If samples were taken to determine which reservoir they were identifying for whatever elimination purpose they my have had in mind, I don't think there would have been been such a song and dance about it.

I don't think it is so much what we saw, I think it is more likely that what we didn't see is the interesting part.

What we didn't see might have prove no more informative than what we did see.

 

[SuperdadV8]

My assumption according to the digging, the holes and especially the trench is, that they are looking for fragments of bone.

To cremate completely and destroy all traces of DNA, you need temperatures beyond 800 degrees celsius. Hard to manage whilst being "camping".

So there is a small chance for fragments of bone.

Just my assumption...

 

[Mex]

That’s the only important thing. If we want to know why they got the warrant and how they justified the cost, it’s because they had reason to believe MM’s body was buried there. If they wanted soil and junk, send one guy with a shovel and two bin bags. The only thing wrapping up this case is the body.

It is difficult but not impossible for a murderer to be convicted without a body.

 

[Mex]

I think this is how they date some ancient artefacts?

Same principle for collecting more recent information regarding artefacts from a crime.

 

[Davieson]

I think this is how they date some ancient artefacts?

Can't usually date them to an exact month and year though.

 

[C.greek]

Can't usually date them to an exact month and year though.

Depends on the artefact... and the context it has been found in. But this is irrelevant here. You can Date soil to a specific month and year from modern times. Pollen gives you much info on that. Maybe that's why they dug 2ft deep holes to create an array of layers and subsequent changes in the soil micromorphology which could be used to date the layers and the corresponding soil sample they have from CB's van

Jmo

 

[Pixie Child]

Depends on the artefact... and the context it has been found in. But this is irrelevant here. You can Date soil to a specific month and year from modern times. Pollen gives you much info on that. Maybe that's why they dug 2ft deep holes to create an array of layers and subsequent changes in the soil micromorphology which could be used to date the layers and the corresponding soil sample they have from CB's van

Jmo

That would bolster the mother of 2 witness who saw him there.

If MC has a witness who was told that MM was there, then that’s another potential witness who may have more to add.

They might also be able to tie it in to some cryptic email.

Criminal cases are as much about a plausible Prosecution narrative as the truth.

 

[Mex]

My assumption according to the digging, the holes and especially the trench is, that they are looking for fragments of bone.

To cremate completely and destroy all traces of DNA, you need temperatures beyond 800 degrees celsius. Hard to manage whilst being "camping".

So there is a small chance for fragments of bone.

Just my assumption...

Dogs can detect burned bodies from fire disasters and can also detect already cremated remains from fire destroyed homes.
_________________________________
Among the precious things that must be left include cremated remains, or cremains, often stored in a receptacle kept on a shelf or mantle. But now, professionally trained detection dogs are being dispatched to recover these human ashes from the charred ruins of destroyed homes.

How sniffer dogs recover cremated human remains from wildfires

Specially-trained dogs, one of which recently searched for Amelia Earhart's body, use their marvelous noses to find human cremains.

www.nationalgeographic.com

 

[Carly@lul]

Haven't been on for a few days apologies if this has been mentioned. I noticed someone saying they struggle with the initials/abbreviations, go to page one of the discussion and you will find the break down of most names/initials.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Nothing will be determined if it isn't looked for. Criminals must watch programmes on forensics quite a lot and have become astute in cleaning up after themselves.

I know if I had committed a crime back in 2007I would have been confident that today the age of the evidence would have destroyed any traces I had overlooked.

Doesn't work like that anymore if dirt can now fill in the gaps when analysed. The technology wasn't there to make that an option sixteen years ago, but they wouldn't be wasting their time on it if they didn't think they can do it now.

So are you saying that collecting soil was the primary reason for the search.

Immediately prior to the search, I think we were all expecting they were searching for the gravesite (apart from JC who thought they’d found a graveyard!).

Why in retrospect are we thinking it is something else? HCW has said in the past “no body parts,” they could have info that suggests she was dismembered or cremated.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

One does get the feeling it could be the interim crime scene

Abduction cases often have 3 crime scenes

1. The place of abduction (i.e. 5a)

2. An interim 'safe place' the offender knows and feels safe at

3. Disposal ground - somewhere body is concealed or dumped.

Other times, 2 and 3 are the same place (e.g. Sarah Everard)

Anything is possible but I doubt Arade is appropriate for 2. If you were going to subject a child to abuse, I think you would do it somewhere inside. People may disagree but his known serious crimes occurred indoors, only the opportunist offences happened outside.

I can’t understand why he would drive for 50 mins to a remote location to abuse and/or murder MM outside and then pack her body up and take her somewhere else for disposal.

Arcade makes more sense as location 3 or location 2 and 3 combined IMO.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

What else could make them 100% certain CB killed MM? Groupthink. We'll see (eventually!)

I don’t think we need to doubt HCW: circumstantial evidence, a puzzle that all makes sense together. I think there are corroborating witness statements, biographical writings, internet chats, and the phone/Jag/OC stolen SUM etc.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

It is difficult but not impossible for a murderer to be convicted without a body.

Not in this case, IMO.

 

[Pixie Child]

Anything is possible but I doubt Arade is appropriate for 2. If you were going to subject a child to abuse, I think you would do it somewhere inside. People may disagree but his known serious crimes occurred indoors, only the opportunist offences happened outside.

I can’t understand why he would drive for 50 mins to a remote location to abuse and/or murder MM outside and then pack her body up and take her somewhere else for disposal.

Arcade makes more sense as location 3 or location 2 and 3 combined IMO.

Did he have anywhere inside to take her? The motor home was at Villa Bianco & NF’s daughter was close by.

Then there’s the cottage but he wasn’t renting that any more. Could he have gone back? Risk of being seen.

He may not have had any choice but to keep MM in the VW and go somewhere quiet. Arade seems a bit touristy. Risk of someone hearing a screaming child.

I wonder where that land is that DF said he & NF owned.