MI MI - Alexandra Brueger, 31, Fatally Shot While Jogging, Rose Twp, 30 Jul 2016 #5

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Firearm death rates in the United States by state - Wikipedia

Michigan total murders 2016 were 558 of which 413 were gun related. Assuming the shotgun percentage is similar to the rate I posted earlier, a max of 2% could be shotgun deaths, which would be only 8, possibly, with Ally's being 1 of them. I wonder if it is possibly to find the other shotgun murders from 2016.
 
tresir2012 said:
Firearm death rates in the United States by state - Wikipedia

Michigan total murders 2016 were 558 of which 413 were gun related. Assuming the shotgun percentage is similar to the rate I posted earlier, a max of 2% could be shotgun deaths, which would be only 8, possibly, with Ally's being 1 of them. I wonder if it is possibly to find the other shotgun murders from 2016.
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I wonder what their source was. I still have the spreadsheet I downloaded from the FBI's site and it shows 597 murders with 443 by firearm of which 12 are by shotgun. Of course, I downloaded those 2016 statistics in 2017 and the FBI may have updated their statistics since then. But you're about right on with the percentage - 2.7%.
 
BayouBelle_LA said:
This wasn’t a random drive by. I think she was targeted by somebody she knew, perhaps a crime of passion. That person used the only firearm he had access to and it just happened to be a shotgun. IMO
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How do you know that? I think the shotguns and tyres were checked of both the POIs. Am sure that was checked straightaway.
Are shotguns registered in Michigan?
 
BayouBelle_LA said:
This wasn’t a random drive by. I think she was targeted by somebody she knew, perhaps a crime of passion. That person used the only firearm he had access to and it just happened to be a shotgun. IMO
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That's one of my scenarios. I believe this was a route that Alexandra ran often enough that someone could have staked it out. Running would seem to be a passion with her. Some runners like that have a weekly schedule like a fast 3 mile run one day, an easy 5 mile the next and then maybe one day a 7-10 mile at an easy pace. This, depending on her work schedule might have been a route she ran often enough that the person could have waited for her. If that is the case he would have picked a spot to ambush her. My problem with that scenario is he did as she was passing a residence. If this was a stalking incidence there would seem to be better spots.

Another scenario or theory is this is a random nut case who frequented that area. In that sense, it reminds somewhat of the Heidi Childs/David Metzler murders in August 2009 near Blacksburg VA. Maybe he is driving the road and sees Alexandra and in his twisted mind is a an opportunity to do this killing. Again, though, I have difficulty with this type of murder as they are not very common. Most of the time the victim knows their killer. LE has stated they believe Alexandra knew her killer and I assume they base that on something they found in their investigation.

I've found myself leaning toward a random killing most of the time. However, your pointing out the use of a shotgun has me considering a targeted event. If someone is intent on killing another and that intended victim knows their killer then the killer needs as sure fire a method as possible to make sure their victim does not survive. A shotgun with buckshot is better for that than a rifle or handgun. Having a shotgun in a vehicle in a rural area with buckshot or rifled slugs outside of deer or bear season is illegal in most states to prevent poaching though. This person took a big chance of being pulled over with such a gun within reach in the vehicle.

Four shots were fired and I believe they were fired close enough in sequence that the killer was not reloading. Most shotguns are used for hunting and if used for birds or small game most states - and the feds in the case of water fowl - require a 'plug' be in the magazine to restrict the gun to only 3 rounds total. That was not the case here and this would seem to me to be either a shotgun intended for home defense or deer hunting. Such a shotgun has a shorter barrel of 18" to 22" and magazine capacity of 5-7 rounds. The shorter barrel would make it easier to handle getting in and out of a vehicle quickly. Most states do not require a plug in the magazine for deer or bear hunting.

I don't remember if LE stated Alexandra was only hit with one of the 4 shots or there was something in the reporting that led me to believe that point. I've known MANY an experienced deer hunter shooting a running deer 2 or 3 times with buckshot and hit with all their shots and I'm not talking about expert shooters. I can't imagine a running jogger on the road is anywhere near as difficult a target than a deer running through the woods. If this killer indeed only hit Alexandra once out of 4 shots while she is on an open road he either didn't have much hunting experience (or none at all) or the nerves got to him.
 
On another point, I did a Google search and since this summer the only thing I find in the media is a Runner's World article about women being assaulted while jogging. That's it. No updates or articles on Alexandra in the media. Nothing from LE. It's cold enough here to require Arctic clothing.
 
JnRyan said:
That's one of my scenarios. I believe this was a route that Alexandra ran often enough that someone could have staked it out. Running would seem to be a passion with her. Some runners like that have a weekly schedule like a fast 3 mile run one day, an easy 5 mile the next and then maybe one day a 7-10 mile at an easy pace. This, depending on her work schedule might have been a route she ran often enough that the person could have waited for her. If that is the case he would have picked a spot to ambush her. My problem with that scenario is he did as she was passing a residence. If this was a stalking incidence there would seem to be better spots.

Another scenario or theory is this is a random nut case who frequented that area. In that sense, it reminds somewhat of the Heidi Childs/David Metzler murders in August 2009 near Blacksburg VA. Maybe he is driving the road and sees Alexandra and in his twisted mind is a an opportunity to do this killing. Again, though, I have difficulty with this type of murder as they are not very common. Most of the time the victim knows their killer. LE has stated they believe Alexandra knew her killer and I assume they base that on something they found in their investigation.

I've found myself leaning toward a random killing most of the time. However, your pointing out the use of a shotgun has me considering a targeted event. If someone is intent on killing another and that intended victim knows their killer then the killer needs as sure fire a method as possible to make sure their victim does not survive. A shotgun with buckshot is better for that than a rifle or handgun. Having a shotgun in a vehicle in a rural area with buckshot or rifled slugs outside of deer or bear season is illegal in most states to prevent poaching though. This person took a big chance of being pulled over with such a gun within reach in the vehicle.

Four shots were fired and I believe they were fired close enough in sequence that the killer was not reloading. Most shotguns are used for hunting and if used for birds or small game most states - and the feds in the case of water fowl - require a 'plug' be in the magazine to restrict the gun to only 3 rounds total. That was not the case here and this would seem to me to be either a shotgun intended for home defense or deer hunting. Such a shotgun has a shorter barrel of 18" to 22" and magazine capacity of 5-7 rounds. The shorter barrel would make it easier to handle getting in and out of a vehicle quickly. Most states do not require a plug in the magazine for deer or bear hunting.

I don't remember if LE stated Alexandra was only hit with one of the 4 shots or there was something in the reporting that led me to believe that point. I've known MANY an experienced deer hunter shooting a running deer 2 or 3 times with buckshot and hit with all their shots and I'm not talking about expert shooters. I can't imagine a running jogger on the road is anywhere near as difficult a target than a deer running through the woods. If this killer indeed only hit Alexandra once out of 4 shots while she is on an open road he either didn't have much hunting experience (or none at all) or the nerves got to him.
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Some thoughts. The only witness states he thought he heard a car door close. So was the shooter out of the car when he shot or was it a drive by which could indicate a driver and a shooter. Or did Ally get out of the car indicating she could have known the shooter? Were all the shells recovered? What was the exact type of shotgun weapon? Do they have a register of shotgun owners? What was the info about sandals worn by the killer? Is there any camera footage of the vehicle? Could LE recap this and release any more information?
 
tresir2012 said:
Some thoughts. The only witness states he thought he heard a car door close. So was the shooter out of the car when he shot or was it a drive by which could indicate a driver and a shooter. Or did Ally get out of the car indicating she could have known the shooter? Were all the shells recovered? What was the exact type of shotgun weapon? Do they have a register of shotgun owners? What was the info about sandals worn by the killer? Is there any camera footage of the vehicle? Could LE recap this and release any more information?
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At this point, at least a recap. This case has lost momentum. I'm thinking that only a tip can solve it now due to no witness that saw the car or shooter.
 
tresir2012 said:
Unfortunately, for there to be a break there has to be some investigative work going on, which doesn't seem to be happening.
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I suppose a spokesperson with LE is going to dispute that by saying just because they aren't speaking about it doesn't mean nothing is happening. Makes me think of that philosophical question, "If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it does it make a sound?"
 
This case is beyond frustrating. I can't imagine how Ally's family feels.

I just can't make a random crime fit. I too think this was a crime of passion. The shots in the back...for some reason, this feels like the killer saying, "If you walk/run away from me, it'll be the last thing you ever do!"

I hope this isn't a cold case, but really at this point, what new avenues of investigation could they have to pursue if the ones that seemed so promising having yielded enough evidence?
 
JnRyan said:
I thought they recovered all 4 shells. LE did state at one point it was a shotgun, but I've not seen it stated by LE what gauge shotgun was used or even whether it was buckshot or rifled slugs. The empty shells would provide LE with unique marks by the extractor and ejector, but that only helps if they have the gun to compare. I've often wondered about fingerprints or DNA on the shells. Alexandra's ex-boyfriend, WS, was a combat medic in the Army so he had to fingerprinted. LE has never said anything about was extracted from the shells, but why would LE grill WS and ask him to take a polygraph if they had fingerprints from the shells? If the empty shells had fingerprints they would have been able to compare those with his before they even spoke to him. It makes me think they don't have any prints or usable partials from the shells.
LE had never said if they have video of a white or light colored car, but I thought I read that was based on what residents on the road saw about the time of the murder. Again, very vague. That first POI mentioned the sandals and that was it. It makes me wonder if the killer opened the door and stood up to shoot. I thought the resident who found Alexandra stated they heard a car door shut.
Also, LE stated it was most likely someone Alexandra knew. And then LE questions the first POI who didn't even know who she was.
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I don't know much about guns, but wouldn't the 4th shell only have been ejected if the killer had pumped the shotgun in preparation for a fifth shot? Enlighten me.
 
If this was a random person, then I am pessimistic. There seems to be little evidence to go on. No DNA as far as I know. No witnesses except for a vague description of a car that may or may not have been involved.

If the POI is the perpetrator, they may have some circumstantial evidence, contradictory statements etc. that may not be enough to prosecute.

Perhaps if police would find the murder weapon that may have been thrown away or sold, then they would be able to build a case.
 
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