It can be helpful to go big picture on this situation and think -- within the span of nine months, two boys who were of similar age and looks, were abducted in close proximity by a man with a distinctive voice and authoritative manner -- who threatened the boys either with a gun or "if you tell I will find you and kill you," and also was concerned about his identity -- in Jared's case he outright asked if Jared could recognize him (thank God he must have said no), and in Jacob's case he wore a mask, but if and when that mask came off -- was he someone Jacob might have recognized from the local landscape? We could make lists of similarities in the cases and differences --
I personally think that there's a strong 90% likelihood that Jacob, Jared and the Paynesville attacks are all the same guy. I don't really want to argue it on the board, but, I thought that I'd throw that out, just as a statement.
I know many people think otherwise; I don't really agree with their thinking, concerning the 'completely different MO' etc...; and again, don't want to argue it on the board. I think it's fine to have different theories; if it's ever resolved, then we'll know what happened. Till then...
I think it's fine for posters to have different theories, and it's not necessary to have to convince someone else to your way of thinking, or to, try and convince them where you think they're wrong. Theories are theories. We can still discuss, and hopefully, over time, bring up evidence, and it'll be the evidence that leads us somewhere or not.
Different theories or interpretations don't really need to hinder the discussion. Theories aren't evidence, and disagreements don't have to be disagreeable.
One thing that I've been thinking about, especially recently, concerning what may or may not have happened. Whether whoever took Jacob is the same as the one who abducted Jared and/or attacked the kids in Paynesville or not; we have to consider that whoever we think took Jacob that, we don't know what happened after that. We don't know if Jacob was taken to some relatively distant location and held, or if he was killed.
It seems, to me, that if he was abducted by pretty much any of the suspects that we've discussed, for the most part, that, they are people whose whereabouts have been somewhat known, at least available, to LE, since the abduction; so, if one of them took Jacob; I suppose that it's unlikely that Jacob was left alive. Does that make sense? I don't see him being left alive and kept in the area. Maybe there are exceptions to that, but, I'm thinking that most of the suspects that we've discussed that they fit that profile that their whereabouts have been known; so, I'd think that likely, if it were one of them, then, likely that Jacob was not left alive. Also, even if they're someone who left the area for some period after Jacob was abducted; unless they left basically immediately, then the same concept applies.
So, in considering your suspect, consider whether you think he killed Jacob, and all the follow-up that would be involved with that. If Jacob was taken elsewhere, and possibly/hopefully left alive, then, I think that the perpetrator is likely not someone who's been discussed to any extent on the board here; and, it means that the perpetrator disappeared from the area after the abduction. I suppose that if it's someone who wasn't really a local in the first place, then, it's probably not the same guy who attacked Jared and the others. But, if it is the same guy, and, Jacob was taken out of the area, then he's a guy who was local (generally speaking) for some period of time; then, he left the area.
I personally think that DR is not a good suspect. I know that a lot of people think, nearly 100% that he is. I don't think there's a need for posters to agree on that one way or the other, since, what we need is to discuss whatever we can come up with in the way of evidence, or interpretation of existing evidence. This theory or that theory, I don't think we can say we have any definite, final conclusions; because, we don't have a final conclusion.
That's just some of my 2¢ worth regarding Phantom's 'big picture thinking' concept.
