Models

[ctkid]

The GFS and some Canadian models are going crazy for next week. This is of course models and they are 6-7 days out.

 

[Marie]

Huh?

lol, I'm confused.

 

[ctkid]

I was looking at some weather models. We are in model mayhem at this time. It is pretty early in the year for those who try to long term forecast.

 

[Reality Orlando]

I was looking at some weather models. We are in model mayhem at this time. It is pretty early in the year for those who try to long term forecast.

So, what's your take on the forecasts? Actually, sounds like fun but I bet you really need some intense background? I'd love to learn more!

 

[ctkid]

Looking at the models from Nov 7-Nov 14.

 

[ctkid]

Maybe an early start on winter in the NE.

 

[ctkid]

Models do not always come true. Especially models that are a week out. There is a fine line of what could be snow but turn out to be rain.

 

[ctkid]

Hummm....others are noticing it also.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...75447375.66593.261298363927633&type=1&theater

 

[ctkid]

For those that follow weather. Garrett Bastardi is Joe Bastardi's son. He is the one that predicted the storm that hit New Jersey.

 

[ctkid]

Here is Garrett's FB page.

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Garrett-Bastardi-Weather/261298363927633?ref=br_tf

 

[Marie]

I was looking at some weather models. We are in model mayhem at this time. It is pretty early in the year for those who try to long term forecast.

Got ya. I got this post notice in my feed an have no idea what GFS or models are... I was thinking fashion models and crime and shaking my head in confusion lol.

 

[ctkid]

Got ya. I got this post notice in my feed an have no idea what GFS or models are... I was thinking fashion models and crime and shaking my head in confusion lol.

The models is what is used to forecast the track of a hurricane or the track of a storm. If you follow hurricane tracking, the models at first are all over the place. But as you get closer to an event they come into closer agreement. The Euro is usually one that I agree the most on when trying to figure out the future track of a hurricane.

 

[ctkid]

The GFS model is the Global forecast system.

The NAM is the North American Mesoscale Model.

 

[Marie]

Thanks, it's good to learn something new today!

 

[Jacie Estes]

Here in South Dakota we take weathermen and their reports as a 'suggestion'. On October 4th, 2013, we were told 6-10 inches of snow and got 5 feet. Other times, we are told snow and it never materializes.

 

[ctkid]

Here in South Dakota we take weathermen and their reports as a 'suggestion'. On October 4th, 2013, we were told 6-10 inches of snow and got 5 feet. Other times, we are told snow and it never materializes.

The model was off on that one!

:banghead:

 

[Cherry]

Well I'm watching the Phillipines get hit! IT's the biggest storm yet, maybe ever. Not sure yet.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24846813

 

[ctkid]

Super Typhoon Haiyan has sustained winds of 200mph and gusts to 235mph. There is a report that the Minimum central pressure is 858mb, which means this storm has the lowest pressure ever recorded on Earth. What is terrifying as well is its about to make landfall in the Philippines.

 

[ctkid]

Its wind strength makes it equivalent to an exceptionally strong Category 5 hurricane.

 

[Elphaba]

ctkid, you had me double checking our weather for the next week!!! lol I was surprised to see that the DC area may get a wintry mix Tuesday through Thursday, with a 41% chance of the mix turning to all snow on Thursday. Snow in November, here, isn't rare, but it is still early. This makes me ponder if our snow drought is finally coming to an end! (We have had back-to-back nearly-snowless winters... so much so that we broke records)

I'm a snow lover... so I am smiling at the forecast. lol