- Jul 19, 2021
- Reaction score
Eagle Creek is one of the more popular spots people recommend to Portland newcomers who want to do outdoor activities in the gorge area so I still think it's possible they are from the immediate Portland area.Apologies in advance if this gets lengthy...
I was thinking more today about how LE (and us here) might go about narrowing down a pool of suspects in this case.
It occurred to me that, in the absence of DNA or something, the easiest case to solve should be AR's, because Eagle Creek is by far the most important location--it's a place not all that many people know well, and whoever dumped AR's body there almost certainly does.
So first I'm looking at people who:
a.) have lived or worked in Eagle Creek
b.) have close family or friends who have lived there
I'm going to run some hypothetical numbers, so again, apologies in advance if that's not your thing. This is just a model, and some of the numbers are estimations, so please let me know if you think any are significantly off--I am going to try to compensate for that and be as conservative as possible in narrowing this down.
Based on the population of Portland Metro and Eagle Creek itself (I can get more detailed on how I landed here, but am skipping the "math" in this post), I'd estimate that something like 1 in 50 people in the metro area have a close connection there, based on the parameters above. That's 44,000 people.
But there are probably a lot that I am missing, who have connections for other reasons, so let's add another 25,000. 69K. That's a lot of people but don't worry, these numbers get real small real fast.
I am also prioritizing people who have committed violent and/or sex crimes against vulnerable populations.
I have no idea how to calculate that, but I don't think it's out of line to guess it's no more than 1 in 500. (I sincerely hope it's less than that, and it very well could be, but that's what we're going with). I highly doubt that whoever committed these crimes, particularly if they are related, hasn't done something along the same lines before.
So we divide 69K by 500.
Then divide that in half, because it's very likely the killer is male.
Then divide it in half again, because there is at least half the metro area where it's very unlikely the killer lives.
By this model, that gives us 35 people. Thirty five in the entire metro area who should be at the absolute top of the suspect list, without taking other factors (age, etc.) into consideration that could narrow it down further.
Even if you bump that 25,000 addition to 100,000, it's STILL only 72 people that should be given top priority consideration.
Now, identifying those people is an entirely different matter. It's pretty hard from our end, but I am sure LE could wrangle and check out at least some of them.
The point is, solving this case probably isn't rocket science, as long as it's approached from the right angle.
Thanks for listening to my ted talk.