OR - 6 women found dead near Portland, most in secluded, wooded area, Feb 19 - May 8, 2023 *POI of 4*

[TheHighestPriestess]

Apologies in advance if this gets lengthy...

I was thinking more today about how LE (and us here) might go about narrowing down a pool of suspects in this case.

It occurred to me that, in the absence of DNA or something, the easiest case to solve should be AR's, because Eagle Creek is by far the most important location--it's a place not all that many people know well, and whoever dumped AR's body there almost certainly does.

So first I'm looking at people who:
a.) have lived or worked in Eagle Creek
b.) have close family or friends who have lived there

I'm going to run some hypothetical numbers, so again, apologies in advance if that's not your thing. This is just a model, and some of the numbers are estimations, so please let me know if you think any are significantly off--I am going to try to compensate for that and be as conservative as possible in narrowing this down.

Based on the population of Portland Metro and Eagle Creek itself (I can get more detailed on how I landed here, but am skipping the "math" in this post), I'd estimate that something like 1 in 50 people in the metro area have a close connection there, based on the parameters above. That's 44,000 people.

But there are probably a lot that I am missing, who have connections for other reasons, so let's add another 25,000. 69K. That's a lot of people but don't worry, these numbers get real small real fast.

I am also prioritizing people who have committed violent and/or sex crimes against vulnerable populations.

I have no idea how to calculate that, but I don't think it's out of line to guess it's no more than 1 in 500. (I sincerely hope it's less than that, and it very well could be, but that's what we're going with). I highly doubt that whoever committed these crimes, particularly if they are related, hasn't done something along the same lines before.


So we divide 69K by 500.
Then divide that in half, because it's very likely the killer is male.
Then divide it in half again, because there is at least half the metro area where it's very unlikely the killer lives.


By this model, that gives us 35 people. Thirty five in the entire metro area who should be at the absolute top of the suspect list, without taking other factors (age, etc.) into consideration that could narrow it down further.

Even if you bump that 25,000 addition to 100,000, it's STILL only 72 people that should be given top priority consideration.

Now, identifying those people is an entirely different matter. It's pretty hard from our end, but I am sure LE could wrangle and check out at least some of them.

The point is, solving this case probably isn't rocket science, as long as it's approached from the right angle.

Thanks for listening to my ted talk.

Eagle Creek is one of the more popular spots people recommend to Portland newcomers who want to do outdoor activities in the gorge area so I still think it's possible they are from the immediate Portland area.

 

[whiterhino]

I know cases like these happen often but FWIW I'm reminded of this one:

Found Deceased - MT - Katelynn Berry, 26, last seen @ home, suspicious, Sidney, 21 Dec 2021 *Reward*

Richland County Sheriff's Office reports missing Montana woman (kxnet.com) The Richland County Sheriff’s Office reports that 26-year-old Montana woman Katelynn Berry was reported missing Friday morning. In a Facebook post, the Sidney PD said that those who reported her missing last saw her...

www.websleuths.com

 

[dub]

Eagle Creek is one of the more popular spots people recommend to Portland newcomers who want to do outdoor activities in the gorge area so I still think it's possible they are from the immediate Portland area.

The area I’m referencing, where AR was found, is Eagle Creek the TOWN, not the Eagle Creek trail. Those are two unrelated places, not close to one another. I just noted this a couple posts back.

You’re right about the trail, it is very well known, but for the most part that’s not the area we’re talking about.

 

[dub]

Eagle Creek is one of the more popular spots people recommend to Portland newcomers who want to do outdoor activities in the gorge area so I still think it's possible they are from the immediate Portland area.

Also sorry, just realized I glossed over your point about the immediate Portland area.

By that do you mean like within city limits? If so, yes I think it’s possible they live in some parts of the city.

The areas I DONT think they live are:
-Anywhere on the west side
-The northern or western parts of North Portland

But SE or NE are possible for sure, especially SE within a couple miles of 82nd.

 

[TheHighestPriestess]

Also sorry, just realized I glossed over your point about the immediate Portland area.

By that do you mean like within city limits? If so, yes I think it’s possible they live in some parts of the city.

The areas I DONT think they live are:
-Anywhere on the west side
-The northern or western parts of North Portland

But SE or NE are possible for sure, especially SE within a couple miles of 82nd.

Yeah I think its very possible they live in the city and use I-205 enough to be comfortable navigating it. The gorge is very popular for Portlanders to go hiking/camping/etc.

Also just saw your comment about Eagle Creek the town vs. the trail and I was initially confused.

 

[dub]

Yeah I think its very possible they live in the city and use I-205 enough to be comfortable navigating it. The gorge is very popular for Portlanders to go hiking/camping/etc.

Also just saw your comment about Eagle Creek the town vs. the trail and I was initially confused.

For sure, I grew up in Portland and I know the gorge well but had never heard of the town until this case, I was confused by it too at first.

 

[TheHighestPriestess]

For sure, I grew up in Portland and I know the gorge well but had never heard of the town until this case, I was confused by it too at first.

It's right past Estacada right?

 

[dub]

It’s west of Estacada, but yeah pretty close.

Eta: sorry more north of Estacada

 

[TheHighestPriestess]

It’s west of Estacada, but yeah pretty close.

Eta: sorry more north of Estacada

If you're driving south out of Portland that area is one of the first kind of "rural" "not Portland" areas which makes me feel like they didn't want to drive too far out of their way, possibly doesn't know Oregon well enough to take a chance and get lost.

ETA: they could also be coming from the Gresham area which is where KS was from (?) Ainsworth State Park where CP was found is a straight shot from Gresham if you take I-84

 

[findlisa5]

Been trying to figure out what crime you’re referring to, maybe I’m reading this wrong but are you talking about something that happened on the Eagle Creek Trail?

If so, that’s a different place. It’s not close to the town of Eagle Creek where AR was found, but it is, incidentally, just a few miles up the road from where CP was found.

But maybe I’m looking at the totally wrong thing.

Sorry for delay. No, I mean the small trail that leads to where Ashley Real's body was found. <modsnip: no source link/discussing a non approved source>

Yeah, then return to my tip on who has been at that spot and causing trouble in the past. No guarantees, but it's interesting. And there certainly are connections to other cases. But it good to start here, since as people have discussed in this thread, the Eagle Creek area is pretty remote, and SE Judd Rd is even more remote.

 

[findlisa5]

It’s west of Estacada, but yeah pretty close.

Eta: sorry more north of Estacada

Yeah, keep this in mind. It may help out related to my tip.

 

[Seekingtruth08]

<modsnip>I could see the south side of both culverts in Google Streetview and the north side of identically sized RR culverts that lead to both HYW culverts. So yeah, hard, but definitely not impossible to see.

I saw it in Grey Hughes video

 

[HMSHood]

I suspect a serial killer is behind it.

 

[jellybeanz]

I suspect a serial killer is behind it.

It seems obvious, but who knows?

 

[dub]

I’ve been looking at the geography in a little different way this morning.

I’ve previously had this notion that the epicenter of the dump sites—the center of the circle—is in Milwaukie.

In the strictest sense, that isn’t true, but I rationalized it because a.) that area is also central to most of the women’s known activity, and b.) with that point in the center, the circle passes directly through downtown Salem, so it made sense that BW would be slightly outside of it.

But the true center of the circle is right around where 5 and 205 intersect in Tualatin. And what I learned that might make that relevant is Tualatin is actually in Washington county, not Clackamas as I thought.

In other words, the actual center of the dump sites falls, just barely, in the one county in the metro area without any known bodies. So I now think it’s conceivable that the killer lives in that area, and is someone who is acutely aware of jurisdictional issues.

For visual reference, the area I’m talking about is just north of the 5 symbol on this map.

[Quoting my own post for location reference.]

Another woman’s body was found today in the Portland metro:
Woman found dead in Wilsonville area, deputies open death investigation

And the reason I quoted my post above is, looking at the “circle” around the furthest three dump sites (JS, CP, BW), this one is basically exactly in the center.

The location I noted in the above post, just north of the I-5 logo on the map, is more or less exactly where she was found—except just barely back across the county line into Clackamas Co.

As of posting, she hasn’t yet been identified, but if it turns out she went missing from the same area as the others I’d consider it most likely related and put a lot more stock in the perp living in that 5/205 interchange area.

 

[EstrellaEspectral]

Autopsy is back. She died of homicidal violence and was found in a rural area. I think we definitely have an SK.

Woman found dead on vacant property near Wilsonville died of homicidal violence

A woman found dead on a vacant property in the Wilsonville area late Monday morning died of homicidal violence, the Clackamas County Sheriff’s Office said.Deput

katu.com

Moo

 

[EstrellaEspectral]

Pretty sure there is a stafford road exit off i205 near West Linn, too.

 

[dub]

Autopsy is back. She died of homicidal violence and was found in a rural area. I think we definitely have an SK.

Woman found dead on vacant property near Wilsonville died of homicidal violence

A woman found dead on a vacant property in the Wilsonville area late Monday morning died of homicidal violence, the Clackamas County Sheriff’s Office said.Deput

katu.com

Moo

On the surface this seems impossibly similar to JS case specifically.

Sounds like they know who she is… the ID will probably go a long way for me to determine whether this is related or not.

 

[dub]

Pretty sure there is a stafford road exit off i205 near West Linn, too.

I just checked and there is - it seems to be the very last one before 205 hits I-5

 

[ml33b]

Here’s what I’ve gathered about a possible common link of drug use. To be clear, this is not a point to chalk this up about addiction or to suggest that these were just overdoses. It’s clear that steps were taken to conceal some of these women in similar ways. Rather, I think it’s possible that these women frequented similar areas with the intention of using/purchasing drugs and potentially came across someone intentionally scoping those areas out.

KS

• At the time she disappeared she was in a relationship with an abusive boyfriend, however he was briefly in jail during that time so seems like he has been ruled out as a suspect. With some of the details about the areas her family was searching, the information about the boyfriend and another male friend she was frequently with, it’s very easy to make the inference that drugs were part of her life. Much of SE PDX is beautiful, but the stories one hears about homeless camps, drugs, and human trafficking occur in very specific parts of SE. The numbers and severity of problems really started to accelerate during the Pandemic. The detail about her boyfriend being in jail is also notable in that she was newly by herself possibly frequenting some of these areas.

JS

• family has already confirmed that she was using again during the period she disappeared. Possibly frequent similar areas to purchase drugs? JS also stands out as the only victim found in Washington, and according to a local, found in an abandoned barn that someone would not pick at random. Perhaps she’s unrelated to the rest, or is a single perp local to Washington and not PDX? Chooses a specific familiar place in Washington, and more random woodsy areas off of main roads in OR?

CP

• not a lot of information, but the phrasing “she was frequently seen in downtown Portland” seems specific without another qualifier like, “because she was employed at/attended ____.” As a former PDXer familiar with downtown, it suggests she was known to spend time in some of these rougher areas with frequent drug use.

UI

• unknown, but was found in a camp in Lents with frequent drug use.

BW

• not much known, just that it’s a suspicious and similar manner and time frame in which she was found.

AR

• not much known, but found very close to the other victims and was last seen in same general area as KS. With the potential knowledge that she was close friends with KS, one can infer there was overlap in lifestyle, routines, or friends.

Anyone familiar with PDX will know that the locations where the women were found really aren’t too disconnected. KS, UI, AR, all found in SE PDX close to areas with homeless camps. The freeways coming out of Portland take you North to Washington (I used to live about 15 minutes from the border) where JS was found, East towards the Columbia River Gorge where CP was found, and Southwest towards the Coast where BW was found. These are the three common directions where any Portlander goes on a Saturday. One could even consider if there’s a tactic involved in leaving the remains in differing districts.

Were these women victims of random, unrelated bad actors due to the current situation with mental illness/housing/drugs? Or is there one perp intentionally scoping out these areas looking for a particular type of female? I have to admit there’s a world where I can see some organized pattern here.

My final point, there has been a fair amount of contention between opposing groups in PDX for years at this point. Antifa vs. Proud Boys (majority reside in WA), Antifa vs. Police, residents on both the left and right vs. increasing homelessness and drug use problems. It’s not out of the realm that we have someone intentionally targeting these areas with an agenda, or just simply taking out violent rage against vulnerable women who frequent these problematic areas.

What makes you think that AR and KS were close friends?