PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #14

Discussion in '2000's Missing' started by J. J. in Phila, Apr 18, 2015.

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  1. Trackergd

    Trackergd Verified SAR Manager and Tracker - Retired

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    Welcome Miss Haley!

    Thanks for the additional insight.
     


  2. Trackergd

    Trackergd Verified SAR Manager and Tracker - Retired

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    Some additional comments on the scents in the parking lot. Air currents and temperature play into scent evidence. If it is too cold, too hot or excessive humidity, it can affect the dog's ability to pick up a scent. The personal scent item used to "imprint" the scent on the dog has to be handled with great care and kept in a paper bag. If the dog was brought in in the morning, the scent would have been down low at ground level and the morning dew would hold the scent down (and why you can smell sewer gas from the vent pipes sticking up from house roofs in the mornings, but not in the afternoon), and when the sun heats up the air, the scent rises up a bit and then becomes detectable to air scent dogs. Scent is also carried on the air. Some air scent dogs can alert on ground scents, however ground scent bloodhounds are the best breed for this task. Ground scent dogs detect dead skin cells your body sloughs off while air scent dogs detect body odor or decomposition gases. There are quite a few things that can contaminate the scent trail, wind, other animals, other humans, auto exhaust etc... It seems consistent that the dog would alert near the mini. It also seems consistent that dog would not alert in the SOS with the level of contamination, even if RG had been in the SOS. Scent alerting a day or two later would indicate a concentration of skin cells near the mini.
     
  3. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    The only thing in addition to the support the SoS sightings is that the timing is right. Beyond sayng that RFG was in Lewisburg, in the Mini, at about 5:00-5:30 PM on 4/15.
     
  4. Trackergd

    Trackergd Verified SAR Manager and Tracker - Retired

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    RFG in the mini is substantiated by two independent evidence methods. The SOS is not, so while we can "assume" or "speculate", it does not have a second independent and scientific validation method, however probable it appears.
     
  5. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    That is pretty much what I meant. The timing is right for it to have been RFG, but so is the sighting behind the courthouse.
     
  6. Trackergd

    Trackergd Verified SAR Manager and Tracker - Retired

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    The Fenton sighting carries just a "tad" more weight as she personally knew RFG, however you are correct and why I included it in my "theory" of events, not fact. :)
     
  7. SuperSmith

    SuperSmith Former Member

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    I do believe other "experts" would disagree with you
     
  8. Trackergd

    Trackergd Verified SAR Manager and Tracker - Retired

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    The quality of "experts" varies, including this one. :)
     
  9. SuperSmith

    SuperSmith Former Member

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    I believe walkaway is very unlikely and that increases by the day. In 10 years I think he would've been seen by now.
     
  10. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    I do not agree. We looked at the possibilities of a false positive. The rate is very low. While Trackergd said about 95% unlikely, the studies indicated 96%. Not much of a difference. :)

    The handler felt it was RFG's scent.
     
  11. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    There are several possibilities.

    A. RFG may have been seen. We have numerous sightings that cannot be ruled out. Some of those may be him. Whitey Bolger (sp.) was on the lam for 15 years; Brenda Heist for 11 (without any legitimate witness reports). Michelle “Shelli” Whitaker, living under he own name, and using her own SSN, disappeared for 6 years.

    B. RFG may be in a foreign county without too much media coverage.

    C. RFG was 59 years of at the time of his disappearance and may have walked away and then died in the interim.

    D. There is an outside chance that RFG has been in the WSP.

    Some similar arguments can be made regarding foul play as well, just to be clear.
     
  12. Ozoner

    Ozoner Well-Known Member

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    I'm all in favor of discussing theories because those theories could lead to examining evidence in a new light or even to discovering new evidence.

    The part about people drowning in their vehicles is too important to be overlooked. Just because Gricar didn't drown in his Mini doesn't mean that he isn't at the bottom of lake somewhere in someone else's vehicle. Maybe he met someone who drove into a body of water that hasn't been searched. Were any other disappearances reported around the same time as Gricar's and in the same part of the State? The biggest problem with that scenario is how to explain the presence of the laptop in the water, so I'd categorize it as a remote possibility only.

    Also, he may have died accidentally, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been found. Maybe he died in bed with a married woman who couldn't report the death without enraging her jealous husband and getting herself killed. Men his age sometimes die of heart attacks in the throes of passion, and I don't think he'd be the first paramour to be buried under a faithless wife's rose garden.

    Those scenarios aren't meant to sully Gricar's image. Regardless of how he may have died, he will always be a hero to me because of his prosecution of the murderer of Dawn Marie Birnbaum.
     
  13. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    Snipped for space only.

    Only one car was stolen in Lewisburg that weekend and it was recovered, not near a body of water. No one in the area disappeared, except RFG

    I refer to it as the Nelson Rockefeller Scenario, and it obviously has been known to happen (even to Republican officeholders). It falls under foul play, because it would be considered "abuse of a corpse."

    And I will agree, though I would cite a number of different cases.
     
  14. SuperSmith

    SuperSmith Former Member

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    Never said it wasn't Gricars scent only that it could have been cast off from another and pooling from opening and closing the door which he exclusively drove.
     
  15. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    That would be a false positive as described.
     
  16. SuperSmith

    SuperSmith Former Member

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    What "studies" do you refer too? Must have missed that.
     
  17. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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  18. SuperSmith

    SuperSmith Former Member

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  19. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    A document search will yield the results.
     
  20. TechWriter797

    TechWriter797 Registered Voter

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    I have a question about the law book in Ray's office. I've read/heard two different scenarios -- one that the book was left open to the page describing procedures for replacing a DA, and the other stating that the book "fell open" to that page when the book was opened. Do any of you know for sure which it was?
     
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