PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #16

[J. J. in Phila]

Yeah, J.J., but with ALL due respect, she was pretty young when this happened; that's what I was referring to (although I reserve the right to not make sense at times)!

I'm not talking about when she was young; I was talking about 2015.

Initially, LG did talk to the press. She spoke at the press conference on 4/18/05. She was polygraphed, and passed easily in 9/05. She spoke to the press at that time; she did an interview with Dateline around the first anniversary. It was after questions regarding money began to be raised that everything began going through her uncle.

I could have understood LG not handling things well in 2005. I can understand her not want to talk about money publicly. At least to an extent, I can understand her phoning in her testimony at the hearing to declare RFG dead. Not being very available to LE in 2015 is a different story. Collectively, this really raises some red flags, especially if the possibility of homicide is on the table.

LG could think it was something other than homicide, but her opinion isn't evidence. The people in LE that have talked have said that they don't think it was foul play. That isn't evidence either.

In 2015, LG had a full time job and a child; she has a Linkedin page. She's not someone who would have difficulty staying in contact.

 

[SeekingJana]

I'm not talking about when she was young; I was talking about 2015.

Initially, LG did talk to the press. She spoke at the press conference on 4/18/05. She was polygraphed, and passed easily in 9/05. She spoke to the press at that time; she did an interview with Dateline around the first anniversary. It was after questions regarding money began to be raised that everything began going through her uncle.

I could have understood LG not handling things well in 2005. I can understand her not want to talk about money publicly. At least to an extent, I can understand her phoning in her testimony at the hearing to declare RFG dead. Not being very available to LE in 2015 is a different story. Collectively, this really raises some red flags, especially if the possibility of homicide is on the table.

LG could think it was something other than homicide, but her opinion isn't evidence. The people in LE that have talked have said that they don't think it was foul play. That isn't evidence either.

In 2015, LG had a full time job and a child; she has a Linkedin page. She's not someone who would have difficulty staying in contact.

J.J., why do you think she was difficult to reach? I think if it was stated that she had relocated without notifying PSP, that would be different than not taking calls at the right number or answering email at a correct email address that was still monitored by the user.

You thought this was important to present for discussion, but the article had a date of 2015, which doesn't invalidate the accuracy but means the representation of circumstance at that time may have been situational for her and her family not in PA .

I think it's a case of those not in PSP not being able to determine why 1) Someone conflated the lack of her response to media with her response to the PSP in a news blurb and 2) The reckless reporting of the 2 situations pertaining to a private citizen in the media when it is NOT the public's right to know.

If she were a missing person, we'd know she was missing, as with Ray.

I'm not at all certain why this was reported as " newsworthy" or why someone, either the reporter or the PSP, saw the need to present his daughter as being callous or unconcerned with NO followup as to whether they'd talked to her in a reasonable length of time, etc.

Also, what could they need to know 10 years into his disappearance that they couldn't answer through their own investigation?
She was not a witness to anything. As far as we know, she has not been threatened or living in fear due to threat of harm, or self- perception of danger related to her father's missing status.

I'm shaking my head at the intrusion of the media with the reporting, and the PSP for pretty much labeling her as unthoughtful or callous with no followup press release.
Is there any reason to believe that she cannot be found and has remained unreachable from at least 2015 until the present time? That she may be under duress from an unknown source?

I do not think it's fair for a victim's family member, his legal next of kin, in fact, to receive negative publicity without followup. I'm concerned for her now, and never have been before.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

It isn't a question of knowing where she is, but on responding to requests from LE. She has a Linkedin page.

Respectfully snipped.

I think it's a case of those not in PSP not being able to determine why 1) Someone conflated the lack of her response to media with her response to the PSP in a news blurb and 2) The reckless reporting of the 2 situations pertaining to a private citizen in the media when it is NOT the public's right to know.

Well, the BPD wouldn't know what her communications were with the PSP; they did not have the case for more than a year when that article was written.

Also, what could they need to know 10 years into his disappearance that they couldn't answer through their own investigation?
She was not a witness to anything. As far as we know, she has not been threatened or living in fear due to threat of harm, or self- perception of danger related to her father's missing status.

It is not a question of what reason the police have for talking to here. It is a question of availability.

LG was not a direct witness, but she may be an indirect one, in the same as, SPS, JKA, and the people at prison board meeting. There are things she can tell LE about RFG, in general. Did he talk to her about estate planning? Did he talk about some place he wanted to go? Did he mention something about her upcoming birthday; did he give her gifts and did they ever discuss that?

It doesn't mean that she is a bad person or anything. It is if her actions are consistent with someone who thinks that someone they love was murdered. This is not the demeanor of someone who thinks her father was murdered and now wants to see the murderer caught.

 

[SeekingJana]

It isn't a question of knowing where she is, but on responding to requests from LE. She has a Linkedin page.

Respectfully snipped.



Well, the BPD wouldn't know what her communications were with the PSP; they did not have the case for more than a year when that article was written.



It is not a question of what reason the police have for talking to here. It is a question of availability.

LG was not a direct witness, but she may be an indirect one, in the same as, SPS, JKA, and the people at prison board meeting. There are things she can tell LE about RFG, in general. Did he talk to her about estate planning? Did he talk about some place he wanted to go? Did he mention something about her upcoming birthday; did he give her gifts and did they ever discuss that?

It doesn't mean that she is a bad person or anything. It is if her actions are consistent with someone who thinks that someone they love was murdered. This is not the demeanor of someone who thinks her father was murdered and now wants to see the murderer caught.

J.J., are you saying that Lara NEVER talked to any investigators or that she didn't in 2015?
Because there is a huge difference.
You've discussed her age at the time he disappeared, then said she wasn't that young in 2015.

What happened in between the press conference with Parri and her, and maybe one of the nephews, and this article you posted?

I firmly believe that once she'd been interviewed and given statements about her dad to LE, she was under no obligation to ever speak to them again without a court order and a subpoena.

A person can be a very fine, upstanding citizen and not want to keep rehashing things that are painful.

Please clarify WHEN she really didn't want to talk, because the article date does not line up with the date I'd expect her to be in attendance and both contributing to a discussion about Ray's disappearance, and answering their questions.

Thanks.

 

[SeekingJana]

I found something I don't think has been seen. It is an article from CNN in 2015: What happened to Ray Gricar? | GantNews.com

There is something in it that I think is disturbing, MOO. It is this line: "Lara declined to comment, and investigators said they’ve had trouble reaching her."

I can understand her not wanting to talk to the press, but not being involved with investigators?

Using the link provided in this post I quoted, this is the total last paragraph of what GantNews wrote about the lack of leads in the Gricar case in 2015, date of publication.

QUOTE:
"Today, some of Gricar’s friends believe the case is damaged beyond repair. They have lost faith that there will ever be any answers.

When asked if she thought things might change when state police got the case, Barbara Gray, his ex-wife and the mother of his daughter Lara, said no. “The evidence is the same,” she said.

Lara declined to comment, and investigators said they’ve had trouble reaching her.

“There is always a remote possibility that we might never have an answer,” said Lt. James Emigh, who leads the investigation for the Pennsylvania State Police after inheriting it last year. “We still hold out hope, and the state police will however continue to diligently follow up every possible lead and attempt to bring closure to the family and friends of Ray.”

IMO, Barbara was speaking for both herself and Lara to the newspaper. I think she's exactly correct. If the evidence hasn't changed, and we have no reason to think it has except the really poor condition in which the PSP received physical evidence, files and reports from BPD as reported in this article, and there's been no sightings of Mr. Gricar or his remains,or DNA matching his, as the same article says multiple DNA from unidentified deceased persons has been tested against his DNA without a match, then nothing has changed since the laptop and hard drive find was eventually made public.
10 years after he went missing and they want to re-interview the family members?
It seems to be a matter related to original investigator incompetence because nothing has changed except the quality of the original reports, according to what the rest of the article mentions.

I'm bowing out of this because I think an unfair assumption has been made about Lara, and unless there's reason to believe Ray has been in touch with her since April 15-16, 2005, then they have what they have and that's what they get without a court order.
If she had heard from him in some way, there's no way she'd betray a man who not only is her dad, but who went to great lengths to be incognito.
He deserves his privacy, assuming he's still alive, IMO, and Lara does, as well regardless of any other factor.

Bowing out because this is non-productive and the implications and assumptions are not victim- family friendly.
I'm on Lara's side.

 

[GarAndTeed]

I had a loved one suffer an MI and then became his legal guardian; that was trauma. That is part of the reason I am saying this. It was necessary to reached easily. That was prior to e-mail and cell phones.

This isn't a question of having to come into the office when it is 2,500 miles away. This is just communications. It is a lot easier to stay in contact today.

The Brenda Heist case ended in 2013, and her daughter was putting out tweets about it.

I'm sorry for the trauma you suffered, J.J. I wish bad things didn't have to happen to good people like you...

 

[J. J. in Phila]

J.J., are you saying that Lara NEVER talked to any investigators or that she didn't in 2015?
Because there is a huge difference.
You've discussed her age at the time he disappeared, then said she wasn't that young in 2015.

What happened in between the press conference with Parri and her, and maybe one of the nephews, and this article you posted?

I firmly believe that once she'd been interviewed and given statements about her dad to LE, she was under no obligation to ever speak to them again without a court order and a subpoena.

A person can be a very fine, upstanding citizen and not want to keep rehashing things that are painful.

Please clarify WHEN she really didn't want to talk, because the article date does not line up with the date I'd expect her to be in attendance and both contributing to a discussion about Ray's disappearance, and answering their questions.

Thanks.

In 2005-06 she seemed much more talkative and was willing to do things, appear on a Dateline episode, talk to the press. As the "Missed Leads" article was being researched, the reporter contacted her and ask about the amount of RFG's assets. She said, "That's nobody's business," and later in the day TG called the reporter and said he would be the spokesman from now on. https://www.centredaily.com/news/special-reports/article42810960.html

My understanding is that, after that point (or possibly before), she never contacted the BPD about anything. Apparently she was difficult to reach in after the PSP got the case. She only did 1-3 interviews after that point as well.

I can understand her being reluctant to discuss assets at that point. I can understand her wanting to let her uncle to serve as spokesman.

This is not a question of her being legally required to do anything. It is an observation about her demeanor. Is her demeanor not the demeanor of someone that thinks her father may have been murdered and wants to see that murderer brought to justice. That is an indication that she does not think it was murder. It seems to be another indication that the people that have looked at some of the evidence, don't think it is murder. That does not mean that it was not murder, either from their statements or their actions.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I'm sorry for the trauma you suffered, J.J. I wish bad things didn't have to happen to good people like you...

Thanks, but it isn't any current trauma. People get over it.

I've been in the position where I had a trauma involving a parent (he was a widower), at a bit younger age, and where I had to manage his business affairs as LG had to. I understand why she might be traumatized, and some of her initial responses.

I can understand appointing a spokesperson, not talking to the press, not discussing money publicly, even not attending the hearing to declare RFG dead (barely). Not rapidly responding to the police if they have some question? That does not scream of wanting to catch your father's murderer, or believing he was murdered.

 

[SeekingJana]

In 2005-06 she seemed much more talkative and was willing to do things, appear on a Dateline episode, talk to the press. As the "Missed Leads" article was being researched, the reporter contacted her and ask about the amount of RFG's assets. She said, "That's nobody's business," and later in the day TG called the reporter and said he would be the spokesman from now on. https://www.centredaily.com/news/special-reports/article42810960.html

My understanding is that, after that point (or possibly before), she never contacted the BPD about anything. Apparently she was difficult to reach in after the PSP got the case. She only did 1-3 interviews after that point as well.

I can understand her being reluctant to discuss assets at that point. I can understand her wanting to let her uncle to serve as spokesman.

This is not a question of her being legally required to do anything. It is an observation about her demeanor. Is her demeanor not the demeanor of someone that thinks her father may have been murdered and wants to see that murderer brought to justice. That is an indication that she does not think it was murder. It seems to be another indication that the people that have looked at some of the evidence, don't think it is murder. That does not mean that it was not murder, either from their statements or their actions.

OK, I'm going to state a hypothesis regarding her reluctance to speak with investigators 10 years after her father's disappearance.
A hypothesis is a theory, thus this is my opinion based on knowledge and experience with those who have burdens of an emotional nature.

There are several reasons why Lara might be reluctant to open up again about her dad's disappearance. J.J. has covered many aspects of the interest in Mr. Gricar's financial assets or lack thereof.
The thought generally is- " If he walked away, he'd need a lot of money to live on". This may be true, or there may be other sources of legal financial assets.
I can see why Lara didn't want to keep answering the questions related to her inheritance or her knowledge of her dad's finances. It is believed that she is the person given control of all liquid assets, as she is his next of kin.

Secondly, her uncles had already faced the public to some degree when their father, Roy Gricar, was determined to have committed suicide by drowning. One of her uncles became the spokesperson in large segments of documentaries about Ray Gricar's disappearance because he was articulate, intelligent, and stuck to the facts as he believed or believes them to be-- that no one knows what happened to Ray Gricar.
It makes perfect sense that Lara would re-direct media to him again in 2015 or 2019 for that matter.

Now, to my theory. I have never spoken to Lara, and my knowledge of what she's said to the public was a short, but genuinely heartfelt appeal for her dad to " come home".This indicates both a strong bond between them and also the belief that he was/ is missing and able to see or hear the broadcast.
She was not verbose but she didn't shirk from the opportunity to speak on camera.

We've established that she did speak with investigators at length early in the investigation of his missing status.
She did not decline to cooperate voluntarily. There's never been one iota of even a rumor that she'd ever harm her dad, or him, her.

The issue of why she didn't want to speak with investigators either by phone or other means in the past few years has a reason or reasons.
It is true that all behavior has meaning.


I tend to think she'd be strongly encouraged to always tell the truth by her parents for all her life, not just childhood and adolescence. So, she may be really uncomfortable with questions related to things she shouldn't or doesn't want to discuss.

There's one huge area, maybe more that I don't know of, but at least one which comes to mind in the 10 years between her cooperating with the initial LE investigator.

My main principle is that as the daughter of a District Attorney, she was taught to tell the truth and face the consequences, if any. Not to lie, not to be known as a shifty or undependable person, IOW. ( Many of us who weren't the sons or daughters of D.A.s also had the same strong teachings and the lessons stay with us all our lives).

IF Ray Gricar was alive after April 15-16,, and IF he wanted to communicate with his daughter, he's smart enough to find an undetectable way, or at least, a way that would not be detected easily. Ten years in, I think any type of monitoring of her correspondence would have lessened to almost nil by all agencies involved in such things early in the case.

She may have had knowledge in 2015 that he was alive, if he was, and where he was located.
This is just a theory, not a known fact. I believe that she'd be the person he'd most want to talk with and receive photos of his grandchild or children ( I am unaware of how many children she has) and send her photos related to his leisure time activities if he had a secure way to do so. One likely faithful conduit might be through her mother and only her mother, thus bypassing all of the people in her usual environment.

However, in so knowing that he was or is still alive and well, she has no need to talk to investigators because she has NO questions for them, hypothetically speaking, if he's alive.
In addition, she would have ample reason to not want to lie if asked " Do you have any idea where your father may have gone?" and the truth would be that while she didn't know at the initial interview in 2005, she found out.
The last thing she'd want to do would be to undo all Ray had done to leave in an undetected manner, without any evidence of crime occurring in the leavetaking, and with no debt owned to anyone. She would most likely not be comfortable with any discussion in this area of questioning. ( Obviously she would not volunteer it, so it would have to be asked of her).

I could be very wrong, I realize, but this is one valid reason for not wanting to give any answer that would either lead the PSP to ask for her to speak to them in person, to be recorded during any type of live internet visual chat, and also not in a phone interview if, in fact, he was alive or is alive.
Sure, she'd keep his confidence, just as her mother would on her behalf and Ray's too, because he's done nothing wrong, but she may have very strong ethics against lying.
The potential questions asked might be a huge conflict for her that might be quite detectable by those skilled in catching a likely deception, or untruth.

If you don't get into the subject, you don't have to get out of it.
IMO only, based on how I think she would behave as taught by her parents, in an honorable way,
Also with great understanding that love persists and the desire to know how a faraway parent is doing and how their life is at any given time is a very strong emotional need. I'd imagine a father's need to know how his daughter is and how her life is progressing would be even greater.

Respectfully, and IMO only. Not for re-distribution, copying, or use except on this site.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

It may not be knowing RFG is alive, but suspecting that he is alive or that he was not murdered.

LG, more than anyone else, had access to his financial records, which she got after she was named administrator of RFG's finances. The timing does fit. The finances could point to walkaway or suicide.

As for communications, there is a possibility, 20/20 Vision. We know RFG had a copy, and that it was not with his belongings. LG could have read it, or RFG could have sent her a copy, even anonymously.

A second possibility is that. The "helper" contacted LG, after her polygraph, and told her RFG left voluntarily. LG could testify, without perjuring herself, that she has not heard from her father. Aside from a helper, it could have been an attorney, who legally would not have to disclose that he had this communication.

 

[SeekingJana]

J.J. wrote in previous post: "As for communications, there is a possibility, 20/20 Vision. We know RFG had a copy, and that it was not with his belongings."

I've never run across the info that his copy of the book, 20/20 Vision, was missing.
I believe you, of course, I'm just shocked after so many years to learn this little tidbit. It seems pertinent to me possibly multiple ways.

I found several copies for sale on eBay, all paperbacks, and have bought one.
Isn't this the book which Ray was approached by the author regarding the case files of Betsy Aardsma and he didn't give her any case info because it's still an unsolved case?

Do you know anything about the author? ( if she was tall in in the age range of the MW, for example).
Do you know if she was interviewed regarding his disappearance? Was there an ongoing friendship between Ray and the author? I'm wondering if, in a hypothetical way, he could have told her how a person can disappear alive and remain so for a normal lifespan.

Mailing the book to Lara would only make sense if it was identifiable by Lara as being his own personal copy, wouldn't it? I do not know if he had any sort of family crest or personal seal which would, more than likely, not be known to LE. Do you have any insight into this?
Thanks in advance.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Repectfully snipped

J.J. wrote in previous post: "As for communications, there is a possibility, 20/20 Vision. We know RFG had a copy, and that it was not with his belongings."

I've never run across the info that his copy of the book, 20/20 Vision, was missing.
I believe you, of course, I'm just shocked after so many years to learn this little tidbit. It seems pertinent to me possibly multiple ways.

He borrowed a copy in the second half of 1990, and never returned it. A copy was n0t with his belongings. Keep in mind that we are talking about 15 years. The person he borrowed from was a PSP Trooper that had the Aardsma case at the time (he had retired by 2008).

It is sci-fi, but it did good reviews with science fiction fans.

To explain this, all the action in the book takes place on April 15, but in the years 1995, 2020, and finally 2040. It is non-linear, so the second chapter takes place in 2040. The setting is a fictionalized version of State College; most of the locations are same but have a different name. The murder (based loosely on the Betsy Aardsma murder) takes place in 1995, but is unsolved in 2020.

Isn't this the book which Ray was approached by the author regarding the case files of Betsy A. and he didn't give her any case info because it's still an unsolved case?

Do you know anything about the author? ( if she was tall in in the age range of the MW, for example).
Do you know if she was interviewed regarding his disappearance? Was there an ongoing friendship between Ray and the author? I'm wondering if, in a hypothetical way, he could have told her how a person can disappear alive and remain so for a normal lifespan.

The author uses the pseudonym "Pamela West," I think she now uses her married name. No, there was no continuing friendship. She moved out of the area in the early 1990's.

West didn't even know that RFG was missing until some months (or possibly years) after the fact. She found out about it by reading about it online and saw the similarities to the book by reading message boards. West also did not know if RFG had ever read the book.

Mailing the book to Lara would only make sense if it was identifiable by Lara as being his own personal copy, wouldn't it? I do not know if he had any sort of family crest or personal seal which would, more than likely, not be known to LE. Do you have any insight into this?
Thanks in advance.

RFG could have sent it to LG before he disappeared; it could have arrived anonymously after he disappeared. He could have mentioned it to her at some point, even earlier that year. She possible could have read it when she was younger. April 15, 1995 is in the title of the first chapter so you don't have to read too far to find the similarity.

 

[SeekingJana]

Well, my $4.00 copy is on the way from eBay.

My thought about anything sent to Lara, and I do mean anything, would have to bear something distinctive that only she and her dad ( and maybe her mom) would recognize as being unique to Ray.

It's likely that many disturbed people sent books, newspaper clippings from exotic lands, seashells in which they'd carved R.F. G. and maybe ever weirder " red herrings".
One of those " fifteen minutes of fame" types of things, I suppose, Or just disturbed people who somehow felt a connection to Lara or maybe also PEF.
We don't know and there's no need to know, I'd say.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Well, my $4.00 copy is on the way from eBay.

My thought about anything sent to Lara, and I do mean anything, would have to bear something distinctive that only she and her dad ( and maybe her mom) would recognize as being unique to Ray.

It's likely that many disturbed people sent books, newspaper clippings from exotic lands, seashells in which they'd carved R.F. G. and maybe ever weirder " red herrings".
One of those " fifteen minutes of fame" types of things, I suppose, Or just disturbed people who somehow felt a connection to Lara or maybe also PEF.
We don't know and there's no need to know, I'd say.

There are two possibilities that it would be a fake, if it happened.

1. LG got it before RFG vanished.

2. A very limited number of people would have known that RFG ever read 20/20 Vision. West herself didn't know that RFG read the book. The now retired PSP trooper knew.

In 1990, RFG was married to BG, LG was in their household; it is probably that they would have seen them with the book, at least. Only two members of the staff in 1990 were still around in 2005, MS and JKA. SPS hadn't even started working there.

RFG was not known as a science fiction fan. The book he was reading when 20/20 Vision came out was
Echoes in the Darkness, a true crime book by Joseph Wambaugh (about the Susan Reinert murder in the Philadelphia suburbs).

 

[SeekingJana]

There are two possibilities that it would be a fake, if it happened.

1. LG got it before RFG vanished.

2. A very limited number of people would have known that RFG ever read 20/20 Vision. West herself didn't know that RFG read the book. The now retired PSP trooper knew.

In 1990, RFG was married to BG, LG was in their household; it is probably that they would have seen them with the book, at least. Only two members of the staff in 1990 were still around in 2005, MS and JKA. SPS hadn't even started working there.

RFG was not known as a science fiction fan. The book he was reading when 20/20 Vision came out was
Echoes in the Darkness, a true crime book by Joseph Wambaugh (about the Susan Reinert murder in the Philadelphia suburbs).

Hi, J.J.

Well, we've three interesting possibilities, but not a shred of proof:

1) Ray took his copy of the book with him for the purpose of signaling " safe" status.. Not difficult. Looks like a smallish book. I'll know soon.

2) Lara received the book after Ray disappeared and knew it was from him, thus he was alive. Maybe sent from Ray directly or from MW, I'd think. A lot depends on whether Ray left the US and whether he'd made arrangements with someone in the US ( MW) to mail it for him. I don't think he'd ever mail anything from a foreign country he was living in but he might have had a secure go-between in another far flung country who could both send Lara something reassuring and also divert suspicion from Ray's true whereabouts, IMO. Or he possibly could have mailed it to her at a stop somewhere on the way to where he was going, which seems a bit risky and also would possibly slow down his getting to where he wanted to be quickly.

3) Because Lara has reason to believe her dad did get to his final earthly destination, she has no reason or desire to talk to the PSP or any other investigative body.

Possible reasons for her to stay away, difficult to reach by media and LE, and silent: She know or knew he was alive and safe, and there's always a chance that she's not a tremendously good fibber, so something in her demeanor could cause interest in determining what she knows now contrasted to what she knew in 2005.

4) Do you think she'd tell her mother, either directly or maybe showing the book on a coffee table or similar? This goes to the " How many people could know and keep a secret" kind of thing.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Respectfully snipped:

Hi, J.J.

Well, we've three interesting possibilities, but not a shred of proof:

1) Ray took his copy of the book with him for the purpose of signaling " safe" status.. Not difficult. Looks like a smallish book. I'll know soon.

This is the only one that it probably isn't. Nobody could know if he still had the book.

As to a signal, it might not have been to LG; it could have been to someone like BG, with RFG hoping that she would make the connection.

It could be coincidence.

You might want to google The Wreck of the Titan about a supposedly unsinkable ship, the RMS Titan, that hit an iceberg in the middle of the Atlantic in April, when it was about 400 nautical miles from Newfoundland. No, I did not leave an "ic" off the name of the ship. This was a fictional ship in a novel written in 1898, 14 years before the same thing happened to RMS Titanic. It was a coincidence. The designers of the Titanic never read the book.

This could be the same thing. When put with RFG's interest in Mel Wiley, however, you have a heck of a lot of coincidences.

1. RFG did have the book.

2. Most of the action takes place on 4/15 (and some on 4/14).

3. One part of the book involves taking a drive. The drive goes west to east, where the characters see many large mountains, including Mt. Shawnee (fictional). One of the characters starts explaining how Shanwee was a legendary Indian princess (pp. 138-9)

RFG drove west to east, where he would see many large mountains, including Mt. Nittany (factual). The name Nittany was taken from a legendary Indian princess.

In short, RFG was in the Brush Valley when he made his call. In the book, two characters speak while in an analogy for Brush Valley.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

This is analogy in dealing with coincidence.

We play a game; one of tosses a coin and other calls it heads or tails; I give you a coin and ask you to toss it. I keep on calling it until I miss; then it is your turn. I go first.

On the first toss, I call heads. It comes up heads. Second toss, I call heads. Heads again. Third time, heads again. This continues, toss after toss; I call heads and it comes up heads. At what point do you ask to use another coin? 3 times? 15 times? 8 times? 37 times?

There is no right answer. There is a 1.5% chance that 7 heads will come up. There is a 0.003% chance (with rounding) that this will happen after 15 times. Each of us has to determine when something goes beyond coincidence.

 

[SeekingJana]

Respectfully snipped:




This is the only one that it probably isn't. Nobody could know if he still had the book.

As to a signal, it might not have been to LG; it could have been to someone like BG, with RFG hoping that she would make the connection.

It could be coincidence.

You might want to google The Wreck of the Titan about a supposedly unsinkable ship, the RMS Titan, that hit an iceberg in the middle of the Atlantic in April, when it was about 400 nautical miles from Newfoundland. No, I did not leave an "ic" off the name of the ship. This was a fictional ship in a novel written in 1898, 14 years before the same thing happened to RMS Titanic. It was a coincidence. The designers of the Titanic never read the book.

This could be the same thing. When put with RFG's interest in Mel Wiley, however, you have a heck of a lot of coincidences.

1. RFG did have the book.

2. Most of the action takes place on 4/15 (and some on 4/14).

3. One part of the book involves taking a drive. The drive goes west to east, where the characters see many large mountains, including Mt. Shawnee (fictional). One of the characters starts explaining how Shanwee was a legendary Indian princess (pp. 138-9)

RFG drove west to east, where he would see many large mountains, including Mt. Nittany (factual). The name Nittany was taken from a legendary Indian princess.

In short, RFG was in the Brush Valley when he made his call. In the book, two characters speak while in an analogy for Brush Valley.

The Wiley/ Gricar parallels as I know them are almost spooky. It's almost like Ray took parts of different events which he knew had either happened or read about in a fictionalized book, and put them together to formulate a plan for leaving, if, in fact, he did leave voluntarily.

The book about the " Titan" may have an extremely unusual connection to an event which would happen in the future.
Since my childhood, I have had a great amount of prescience. Foreknowledge with no rational explanation other than " It has been shown to me. This will happen".
Some of what I have seen before it happened involving tragedy with mas casualties: The Columbine school shooting ( which I believe was the first mass school shooting of its type).,
The explosion which destroyed the Challenger- I was actually talking on the phone when I saw it in my mind, and I started crying. My friend, who has passed away, clearly heard me say " It's going to blow up and they're seconds away from death". We lived in a media market where regular TV programming was interrupted for all NASA missions because a very important part of NASA was less than 50 miles away.. and our news came straight from that city's headquarters.
So, there was no way I had maybe possibly subconsciously heard some news of this and then watched a replay. I was watching in real time, live with NO delays, and even thinking about it now gives me chills.

There have been other things, of course, too many to be discussed and stay on topic. However, I'm not the only person who has these types of visions or " foreknowledge".
Some others always have as well. I think, but do not know, that it's possible a person who had very strong prescience regarding a ship with" Titan" as part of the name would hit an iceberg and sink a few years in the future. That's my explanation for how and why the book came to be. Not coincidence, but prescience.
Would that the book had been widely read and believed. Disaster might have been averted.

The weird thing would be if there had been a book written about a D.A. who goes missing at a relatively young middle age, from Centre County, PA, with a girlfriend who looked almost like his former wife at the time, and a blonde, outdoorsy daughter.
Add in the Mini Cooper, the laptop (neither of which existed 15 years prior) and people would be knocking at the author's door, demanding answers.
However, as far as we know, no one left a clearcut story of what would happen.But, I believe it could have happened. Probably not to someone extremely close to him,but someone in his periphery. Or maybe a total stranger who fills in the name, as names are not at all as important in the story as the events.

Ray wrote his own story, if we do believe he walked away. If he was a victim of foul play, one day it will be known. I've also thought that if he left PA, he'd likely want to be buried in either OH or PA, not in a foreign country, if he did leave and did go to foreign soil. The exception could be his branch of the family tree in Slovenia.
Belonging with them and being remembered by generations to come as " our American Gricar who came to live with us " would seem natural, I think.

Maybe one day we'll know. I hope so.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The author, Morgan Robertson, specifically denied any supernatural abilities. He was a merchant sailor, his father was a ship captain, and he had written numerous stories about the sea.

I give you one about this case, however.

Though I could not remember his name, I had read about Mel Wiley in 1985 (Time magazine). It was the first time I'd ever heard of someone leaving voluntarily, without running from the law, or on debts. That just stuck with me.

Well, in about 1990, I thought I would try to write a novel. The premise was an investigation into a missing person.

The missing person was a Pennsylvania State Senator, who resided in a small town. As with a large number of PA lawmakers, he was a lawyer. He was also a former assistant district attorney. It was clear that he left voluntarily. In the first several days after he disappeared, it was discovered that he left the town and stayed in State College for several days. He then went to the Wilkes-Barre area, where LE lost him. It was found that he was in Philadelphia, though still missing.

This was about 1990-95. It had no reference to RFG, but there were these parallels. In that period, I would not have recognized the name "Gricar," and had moved out of the area, to Philadelphia. While I liked the city, I had no immediate plans of moving here. I based one the main characters on a real person, a close friend. She is currently my roommate (it is platonic).

Coincidence? Very much so.

 

[SeekingJana]

I'm not a guru, a mystic or a fortune teller.
However, I do believe that when people know as much as the guy knew that came to pass about the Titanic, and as much as you knew which has parallels to the Gricar case, the answer can't be pushed away because it's scary.

Because of the details, and because the book about the ' Titan" likely could have saved the Titanic if it had been widely read and believed as a cautionary tale, I believe it was a form of prophetic writing. The person doesn't have to believe it. The facts that the two parallel stories did happen is the proof that likely, there was foreknowledge not recognized as such.

Did you write a full outline of the missing DA? If so, how did your book end? Would you change the ending now?