PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #16

Discussion in '2000's Missing' started by J. J. in Phila, Oct 1, 2018.

  1. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    Respectfully snipped, as always.


    The difference, in this case, is the proximity to the houses, and the foot and vehicle traffic. It isn't just a question of someone getting the drop on RFG, but it is to do it quietly and without creating attention. Even if RFG had been knocked out, the killer would have to get him into a vehicle.
     
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  2. SeekingJana

    SeekingJana Good- bye my friends

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    You're right. I did have neighbors, but none of us tended to sit and look out a door or window.. It was a huge Victorian house and the house had been turned into a few very spacious apartments in the 1940's or before. So vintage on top of vintage, with so much charm.

    I am only 5'6'' tall and weighed about 110 pounds at that time, so I was not the same size as RFG or most men. Also, I had long very thick hair, which was used as a part of leverage to maneuver me while I was unresponsive. They found huge long hand fulls of my hair in his car, and the only way it could have gotten there was if he was pulling me forcefully by my hair.
    There was also a very tall and thick ( very old) boxwood hedge blocking his car from the houses as he had parked across the street by a city park.

    It was the perfect place for me until the day it wasn't. One day, I thought " I am ready to see a photo of that place again" and when I looked on Google, there is only a vacant lot. The house burned a few years ago with no injuries. I can't begin to say how glad I am that it's gone. It wasn't safe for me or any other woman, although the location and interior features were amazingly great. There were huge unlit places and the park across the street lacked lighting too.

    Point being, no, I don't think he would be a candidate for bodily force abduction, and that's really the only kind there is for a person who is aware that death is what the end result will be anyway so let them shoot you in the parking lot in broad daylight but DO NOT get in their car with them!!! Ray would have known. Surely, if I know, he would have known, right? :)
     
  3. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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  4. SeekingJana

    SeekingJana Good- bye my friends

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    OK, thanks for the article but I cannot get through that piece, J.J. Too much sports for me. I see PSU and I start to have blurred vision. Sad but true. Huge amt. of personal disdain and resentment against that Athletic Dept.

    Could you summarize what D.A. Gricar did or didn't do after the statement to the effect that after 4 years, they didn't believe they could reassemble all of the witnesses.
    How does it even make sense that college age youths couldn't be reassembled 4 years later?

    I hope that's the main point regarding Gricar because if it's not, I totally missed the point of the rambling article which, IMO, tackles about 4 different subjects off on tangents.
     
  5. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    Basically, he prosecuted members of the wrestling team for rape. PSU has some championship wrestling teams. PEF had an uncle that was a member years before.

    I do not know of any "personal disdain."
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2018
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  6. SeekingJana

    SeekingJana Good- bye my friends

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    I should have been more clear. The personal disdain is mine. I have extreme personal disdain and actual revulsion regarding PSU sports programs because of J.S.
     
  7. Trackergd

    Trackergd SAR Search Manager

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    Here's where I am right now and why:
    Suicide - 1% Unlikely that he tried to hide his body as finding his body would have accelerated payout of insurance etc to loved ones.
    Homicide - 2% Unlikely but possible. No public information (smoking gun) has surfaced to support a motive for murder.
    Walk Away - 96% My opinion is he met someone in Lewisburg and disposed of the laptop to cover legacy damaging information, financial information and exit plans. His exit plans were detailed to the point of leaving the book open on his desk, the phone call to PF about the dogs, wiping the hard drive and leaving the box and computer searches for frying a hard drive. His demeanor in the preceding days was his contemplation of the events to come, leaving loved ones behind, leaving a job he loved and ensuring he had covered all small details that usually unravel these types of cases.
     
  8. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    First, the book was open on the desk, When they checked it,it opened to the page regarding a vacancy in the DA position.

    I am a lot higher on homicide, because there is one scenario that really haunts me. It can explain the change in demeanor. That scenario is: RFG was meeting a woman for a romantic encounter.

    The specific scenarios include in no particular order:

    1. RFG was meeting a woman, and if seen with her, it would have caused professional problems. She could have been a witness, a defendant, or relative or SO of one. In theory, she could have been a judge, but there were no female judges in Centre County at the time.

    We have seen this happen with an ADA in Centre County, and with a DA in another Central Pennsylvania county. Ex-prosecutor who helped drug dealers for sex gets probation

    In this scenario, RFG and the woman had a lover's quarrel, RFG had a fatal accident, or RFG had a fatal health crisis. The woman could not report the death without compromising that particular case or is worried about prossecution.

    2. RFG was meeting a woman who was in another relationship, and did not want to leave it. Again, RFG and the woman had a lover's quarrel, RFG had a fatal accident, or RFG had a fatal health crisis.

    3. RFG was meeting a woman, who was setting him up. She met up with him in Lewisburg. He got there early because he wanted to toss the laptop and drive. After they met up, she, and/or her cohorts, killed him and hid the body. This could be someone connected to one of his cases as in #1.

    All of these could explain his change in demeanor, especially, #1 and #3. RFG might have wanted to end the relationship, and that could account for it as well in all three cases.

    Those are all foul play of some sort, even if the charge was abuse of a corpse. It could, at most, be first degree in the case 0f #3.

    #1 and #2 are consistent with RFG being in Lewisburg on 4/16. Right now I'm 50/50 about RFG being in Lewisburg on 4/16.

    I am playing Devil's Advocate.
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
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  9. SeekingJana

    SeekingJana Good- bye my friends

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    I know it doesn't matter, because I'm just a poster on a forum, with no connection to LE or the family or friends, but Trackergd, you and I are walking in perfect sync now. When I read your posts, the things I have come to " see" happen are validated.

    One thing about " a woman meeting a man for romance", and this is not in response to Trackergd's post.

    1) Unless he decided to go to a website or service like Ashley Madison, which may not have existed in 2005 anyway, we are talking about a very intelligent man who was of the age for his head to play a large part in what he chose to do as far as risk- taking or not risk- taking.

    2) When people reunite or maybe meet and have to communicate through the internet and/ or burner cell phones. over time, you absolutely do get a true feeling of " This is a very trustworthy and exciting person I want to be with" or " This person has some serious baggage and has not gotten counseling for past hurts and traumas".

    3) Sometimes, if an Internet connection is made and continued, photos are exchanged which are maybe a bit sexy on the woman's part but USUALLY NOT sleazy. We know- The Internet is forever. Plus, a woman of worth has self- worth above all else.

    If a woman started being overtly sexual in Internet photos and chats and whatever, it speaks to both desperation and being a gold digger.
    We should remember, he had a higher than average income for that area ( but not for NYC or LA, so it's relative).
    I think men have had access to adult men's magazines for so many years that it would be extremely hard to " lasso a live one" with amateur selfies. JMO. ( No, I've never done this).

    4) More than anything, I hope he left Bellefonte on his terms with his plans made. I hope every one of them came to fruition and that he has had a long and happy life for 13.5 years now.
    I hope there was a loving partner waiting for him somewhere, because as we do get older, being alone, or being " with a partner in name or legal paperwork only" gets extremely difficult and boring when there's no true, solid love and personalities which mesh very well as the foundation.

    Thanks, Tracker, for coming along in this discussion a few years ago and for discarding the wild theories in favor of that which seems most likely to both you and me, and probably many others who read but don't want to post.

    Hi, and thanks for reading to all who do stop by and do care. You do make a difference!

    Edited to add: Because of intuitive things I feel to be true with a great deal of certainty for me, my percentages about what happened are currently-

    WALKAWAY -98%
    FOUL PLAY - 1%
    SUICIDE-1 %
     
  10. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    My current overall odds:

    First, "Something else," e.g. amnesia, having a health problem and falling into the river, some sort of psychotic break, is well below 1%. It is low enough that it doesn't register and I'll stop listing it separately

    Voluntary: 75%

    Walkaway: 60%

    Suicide: 15%

    Involuntary: 25%

    Romantic Encounter,
    as described above: 20%

    Something else: 5%
     
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  11. Trackergd

    Trackergd SAR Search Manager

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    We are not all that far apart. My point about the change in demeanor is based on how I have observed individuals who have retired or are about to retire from jobs that they love. There is a sense of loss in most cases, notably when they have invested a lot of effort in making changes that have positively impacted the business. In short, a form of sadness. I just witnessed co-worker (grown man) crying last week during a company announcement of his leaving after 18 years. It was an emotional event. No one but RFG and PF know what the level of passion was in their relationship in the weeks and months prior to RFG going missing, tho it may have played a role.

    As you know, there is no substitution for boots and the ground in Lewisburg to take in the air and activity for that time of year, and it helped me form an opinion of the location and what most likely did or did not happen. If someone wanted to take RFG out of the picture, luring him in just does not seem to make sense when a well sprung trap along the rout to Lewisburg would have been much more effective and left a lot less loose ends and evidence to find.
     
  12. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    Like Tracker, I will give you the why.

    There are numerous pieces of evidence that point to RFG's actions being voluntary:

    1. The trip to Lewisburg. It was planned, and RFG did not anyone at the office or PEF in on the planning. He had checked the weather at both Lewisburg and Raystown and had generated a map to Lewisburg on his office computer.

    The call would, eventually, lead the police to look in the direction of Lewisburg, though not directly to Lewisburg. If he wanted to lead the police to the Mini or, potentially, his remains.

    2. The change in demeanor is completely consistent with him planning something or being depressed. That can very easily point to planning to walk away or being suicidal.

    3. The money. It looks like RFG either:

    A. Moved a lot of money to an unknown location.

    B. Was doing estate planning.

    C. Lost a lot of money, i.e. bad investments,which is unlikely from what we know about RFG.

    We can also look at things like putting the Mini in PEF's and having his daughter on his accounts is support for A and B. He knew that he would, eventually, be declared dead, so both A and B can point to walkaway.

    Option C could be a ground for suicide.

    4. We know that RFG had a longstanding desire (at least a year) to get rid of whatever was on the laptop, prior to returning. The evidence that he took that up a notch and decided to toss it is overwhelming. He certainly would have wished to destroy any trip data in the case of walk away. He could have wished to get rid of anything he'd considered embarrassing before suicide.

    The call would, eventually, lead the police to look in the direction of Lewisburg, though not directly to Lewisburg. If he wanted to lead the police to the Mini or, potentially, his remains.

    Yes, #1 and #2 could happen in some murder scenarios. Yes, RFG could have been in a stressful relationship, but why did it get worse? Yes, the trip could be for a clandestine meeting, but why make the call? RFG could have said to PEF the night before, "I'm going to play hooky and go out driving. Remember to take care of Honey." He could have called PEF from home.

    #3 and #4 do not have a logical explanation in terms of an involuntary act. The could be coincidental to an involuntary act, but they are not related to it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2018
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  13. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    I agree that there can be a sense of loss, leaving a job, a neighborhood, or a girlfriend. He could have been anxious over walking away. However, that would not the sole reason that RFG acted the way he did. It is much more likely than not that it points to a voluntary action and not an involuntary one.

    I do disagree, strongly, that a trap along the route could have been more easily done.

    First the "trappers" would have to know that RFG was heading to Lewisburg.

    Second, they would have to know what route he would take. There is no bottleneck outside of Bellefonte. RFG, if he is sticking to the main roads, either has to turn right on Water St. (in Bellefonte) or continue on High Street until he gets to the Courthouse.

    The trappers would either have to set up at least two, and possibly three, traps and wait until he drives into one, or follow him.

    The question is then, when will RFG notice the tail? Well, there are three turns prior to Pleasant Gap; two of those are fairly well traveled streets and many cars will take one of them. There is also a major intersection, Route 26, which is the main road to State College; a lot of cars will turn off there. When RFG turns onto the not as well travel 192, and accelerates, he would see another car making the same turn and trying to catch up with him.

    I could see no way that RFG could be effectively ambushed on the way to Lewisburg, unless they knew both his destination and route unless, or unless the trappers could track the car. I've included some maps.

    All that said, luring has some difficulties and is not at the top of my list, even for foul play.
     

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  14. SeekingJana

    SeekingJana Good- bye my friends

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    Love. This. Post!!
    I agree with you about him not making it to Lewisburg if someone was " after him".
    Also, with the "proximity to his home" in mind, IF suicide had been on his mind, or if it was a sudden overwhelming impulse, I believe he would have killed himself in his home.
    I recently attended a professional seminar about this very subject.

    I learned quite a bit. One thing is that there are 2 types of moods associated with suicide. One is an elevated, manic or hypomanic mood. Usually, there is a history of mental illness and/ or substance abuse adding to the " fuel" of the manic state. Elation. A sudden, overwhelmingly negative shocking finding can also precipitate a rash suicide in some people, but not usually in US culture where mental health crisis help is readily available.

    The other is a depressed person in the absence of a sudden impulse, in the absence of an overwhelming sudden loss ( like a baby being found dead of crib death, or fill in the blank there are so many) planning their own suicide for some time. The plans become comforting. The goal is to leave as little mess behind to be cleaned up, and to die " without pain". Planned suicides almost always have a " painless" belief in the plan, however delusional the belief that death will be painless is.
    In the majority of a depressed person progressing to suicidal ideation and suicidal action, the person does die in planned comfort or sometimes, in a shocking manner if there is anger against a person likely to find the body. Some very common ways which are shocking are to hang one's self from a tree, asphyxiation via self- strangulation in an area of the house, usually a door frame, or in an attic or basement. Other means of perceived historical " painless" suicides involve gas turned on to render unconscious then progress to death, or death in a closed car from CO poisoning.

    There is one qualifier to what I have written. It goes back to Tracker's last post and the lack of apparent alarm on the trip to Lewisburg.
    Why did Ray go to Raystown Lake on the 14th? Did he have a meeting with a friend or foe, and did he believe he might have been followed there?

    Why do we not ever really look at the 14th when discussing RFG going missing less than 24 hours later? What if something happened at Raystown Lake which made it urgent to leave?

    Tracker, have you ever been to Raystown Lake while you were in the area, or are you otherwise familiar with it?
    Do you believe whatever planned there had to do with his disappearance, or was it another type of trip, such as meeting up with the MW or a lover, who may not be the same person at all?
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2018
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  15. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    Respectfully snipped, as always.

    I was thinking some sleeping pills and bottle of vodka. It would be drifting off someplace outside, letting the mixture work while the cold causes hypothermia.

    RFG "played hooky" from work after the Prison Board Meeting, but came in in the afternoon. There was no reason that was given.

    I have seen a photo of RFG next to PEF on a houseboat; I'm assuming that was taken at Raystown Lake. The boating season opened on the lake that Saturday. Not related to anything, he might have been making reservations.

    He might have been contemplating suicide, but was interrupted by seeing the "doctor," whom he knew.

    He might have been planning to toss the laptop, but was seen by the "doctor," whom he knew. The lake is a valley created by a dam and is deeper than the Susquehanna.

    The lake is the Altoona-Johnstown-State College Media Market, so it much more likely he'd be recognized there than in Lewisburg.

    I have all the answers, but I can't tell which answer is right. ;)
     
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  16. SeekingJana

    SeekingJana Good- bye my friends

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    I'd agree that you and we likely have all the answers if you believed more seriously that a woman who's important to Mr. Gricar played an important part in WHY he left.. Sometimes, a person of a certain age falls in love with someone their family and friends would disown them over. We know the biography of RFG to a great extent, so the woman would likely have a lot of " opposites" in her life history.
    Or maybe he just didn't want to be hassled by Patty after the mess with Emma 3-4 years previously.

    You amp up the " attraction" factor if you can in your narrative, and then you, Tracker, and I will be a trio singing in harmony. :)
    I know you are sincerely perfectly logical but there's nothing logical when it comes to matters of the heart, sometimes. (Notice I said " sometimes") ;)
     
  17. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    Something I posted made me think. If someone really wanted to murder RFG, what would be the easiest way to do it?

    The easiest way to do it on 4/15/05 would be to wait until PEF left, and knock of his front. When he opens it, shoot him.

    The killer can use some variants. He can dress as a meter reader; he can dress as a letter carrier and say that he has a certified letter that requires a signature. He could wait until RFG gets into the Mini and then shoot him.

    There are some technical things the killer would need to do. He'd have to be driving a vehicle that was disposable; he would need a more permanent vechicle after that. He would need a quick change of close. Silencers can be homemade, but a professional criminal could probably get one, along with a stolen hand gun. Maybe he'd have a wig.

    If killer could be a qualified, though that takes a lot of skill. He could shoot from a parked car on Hill Street across the neighbor's back yard.

    The only reasons I could see for an ambush at the house or on the road or in Lewisburg would be basically to kidnap him.

    He didn't have any money, at least available, so that isn't a good motive. Maybe someone, as an act vengeance, might want to kill him slowly, but the killer would be taking a bigger risk. Maybe someone would kidnap and trade him for someone in prison, but he would need RFG alive for that, or at least try to bluff the police.

    Being attacked in Lewisburg, on the way to Lewisburg or being lured to Lewisburg, doesn't make too much sense.
     
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  18. SeekingJana

    SeekingJana Good- bye my friends

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    You're coming to the same conclusions as Tracker and I have, I think ;)..
    Much less effort needed to kill him in the house. Likewise, with suicide. Why drive somewhere you might be spotted in the act and be rescued with horrible brain injury or the like when you're already home alone and will be uninterrupted?
    These logical answers are why I don't think he was murdered " on the road" or in Lewisburg on parents' weekend at the college, or committed suicide out somewhere when home was private and available to him that whole day.
    Great post, J.J.!
     
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  19. J. J. in Phila

    J. J. in Phila Verified Insider

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    That distance is not a problem for suicide.

    Roy Gricar did, in fact, travel a fairly good distance, I think 20+ miles.

    There is a fairly good list:

    *Joan Rivers husband, Edgar Rosenberg, actually came to Philadelphia.

    *A NASCAR driver Dick Trickle, shot himself at a cemetery.

    *Vince Foster is another example, if a controversial one.

    *There was a professional skier Jeret Peterson, in a remote valley.

    *Andrew Koening, "Boner" from Growing Pains, hung himself after visiting Vancouver.

    *Spalding Gray, the actor and monologist, jumped in the river.

    *Sheila Abdus-Salaam, first African American woman on New York state's highest court, jumping in the river.

    I've tried to eliminate the ones that were facing some type of criminal charges. The list is not all inclusive. Except for Rosenberg (1987) and Foster (1993), all the others were post 2000.
     
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  20. SeekingJana

    SeekingJana Good- bye my friends

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    Oh, there are outliers to everything. Would you like statistics about the conditions in which suicides occur? Overwhelmingly, a person of Ray's age without some weird political or financial stressor ( referencing Rosenberg and Foster, whose manner of death is strongly contentious as you likely know) will choose a comfortable place to die.

    That's not to say they will always choose pills and vodka as you stated earlier, but usually an almost certain immediate death, such as a GSW. Men are much more likely to die by self- inflicted fatal gunshot and women by intentional fatal overdoses of narcotics and alcohol. There are exceptions to this, as there are exceptions to almost every human behavior but I stand my my belief that he had NO reason to leave home to commit suicide if that was his intent. Since I give it a 1% probability, it's obvious I do not believe he committed suicide.
    ( and neither do you!) ;)
     
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