Pacific Northwest

[Backwoods]

Apologies for multiple successive postings -- but, I figure, if the promos for the TV show and the reactions to them in MSM can get the IK thread moving a bit again -- well, seems like a good thing.

More on TV show's link between serial killer Israel Keyes and state official Gilbert Gilman's 2006 disappearance in Olympic National Park

PORT ANGELES — Gilbert Gilman, a top state government official who went missing in Olympic National Park on June 24, 2006, was last seen at the Staircase Ranger Station.

Self-confessed serial killer Israel Keyes, who committed suicide in Anchorage in 2012, was an avid hiker who lived in Neah Bay from 2001-07 and was issued “a few overnight backcountry permits” that allowed him access to the park during that time, park spokeswoman Barb Maynes told the Peninsula Daily News in an August interview.

She did not return calls for further comment Thursday. ...

...Kevin Donovan, assistant special agent in charge of the FBI's Anchorage office, said Thursday that while the FBI has received at least 100 tips as of January about Keyes, none has led to identifications of more victims.

Donovan did not have information Thursday on tips received by the FBI since then.

He would not say whether the FBI had explored the possibility that Keyes had something to do with Gilman's disappearance.

“We would not want some family member to read that we looked at a connection and have their first knowledge of that from reading it in a newspaper,” Donovan said. ...

more at: http://www.peninsuladailynews.com/a...-between-serial-killer-israel-keyes-and-state

 

[gtm]

Hmmm... it does seem there may be differences of opinion about whether Gilbert Gilman is likely to have been a victim of IK:

more at: http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-n...2014/03/confessed_alaska_serial_killer_1.html

(<sigh> There are a few other cases I wish the FBI would come out and say "highly unlikely IK" -- or something -- about.)

In my opinion, when the FBI publicly says not likely, that pretty much ends the discussion (regardless of what a fictionalized TV show contains).

That error-ridden AP story on March 21 disappeared (was retracted) after a couple of hours. That includes the Anchorage Daily News, where it originated.

I am looking forward seeing what's in the Dark Minds episode, but I think this was just sleezy promotion for the show.

 

[Backwoods]

In my opinion, when the FBI publicly says not likely, that pretty much ends the discussion (regardless of what a fictionalized TV show contains).

That error-ridden AP story on March 21 disappeared (was retracted) after a couple of hours. That includes the Anchorage Daily News, where it originated.

I am looking forward seeing what's in the Dark Minds episode, but I think this was just sleezy promotion for the show.

To me, the "promo/preview" articles did sound as if they came straight from the show's publicity release (although you'd think maybe it would matter to the publicity folks about getting the details right -- but maybe not so much) -- was a little surprised that MSM ran them that way to begin with. Who knows.

I've already said I'm adopting a wait-and-see approach to the Gilbert Gilman suggestion. I won't go as far as you and say that the FBI saying not likely completely ends the discussion for me, though.

For one thing (just to look at the flip side here), the investigation did ask for help on IK, those months ago after IK's suicide, and for another, the Olympic Park area certainly is in a "suspect" area and time frame:

...After months of investigation by the FBI and Anchorage police, the decision to release the four-page statement on the Keyes investigation Monday is "our last best hope of identifying victims," Gonzalez said.


"At this point, we've exhausted all of our investigative leads, so there was no investigative advantage to holding onto this information," Gonzalez said. ...


...In either 2005 or 2006, during the summer or fall, Keyes killed again in two separate encounters, he told investigators. Keyes said he tied anchors to at least one of the bodies, which he dumped in Washington's Crescent Lake, leaving it in more than 100 feet of water.


Since learning about the deaths, the FBI has not searched the lake, Gonzalez said.


"The lake is too large and deep," he said. "Keyes was not specific enough to allow a search." ...

more at: http://www.adn.com/2013/08/12/3020769/fbi-releases-new-details-on-alaska.html

Also, this detail is at least interesting ("that time" in the quote referencing the time of Gilman's disappearance):

... Self-confessed serial killer Israel Keyes ... was an avid hiker who lived in Neah Bay from 2001-07 and was issued “a few overnight backcountry permits” that allowed him access to the park during that time ...

http://www.peninsuladailynews.com/a...-between-serial-killer-israel-keyes-and-state

Finally, I keep remembering how Keyes said (made a quick search for a link but couldn't find one so I'll paraphrase from memory) that missing men drew little attention, everyone thinks they've just up and left voluntarily. Certainly that theory seems to have grown up strong around Gilman's disappearance, whether or not he had a fatal encounter with IK.

So, I'm hooked by the hook, I guess, lol -- at least enough to be curious about what the show will have to say about it.

 

[gtm]

I know that you can never say never, and I certainly don't want to be in the position of defending Keyes. I just don't like being manipulated by TV promotions. That Nancy Grace show a few months ago, for example, was less than worthless and a real disappointment.

The main person quoted in that Peninsula Daily news article is a Investigation Discovery network spokesperson. Obvious plug. If the FBI thought this was possible, they would be promoting too in hopes of finding more info from the public. They wouldn't even give a quote in the article, but instead came out with the "unlikely" statement.

The missing person was a 2 bronze star, ex-army paratrooper with a sketchy govt intelligence background. An unlikely choice for a victim considering the 3 known victims of Keyes and his statements.

It would be easy to rule this out if there was any evidence of Keyes whereabouts that day. This site is fairly well visited (closest of all park sites to the cities), especially on a Saturday in June. Of all places within 3.5 hours of Neah bay, this would be a poor choice for a crime. So, maybe opportunistic "spur of the moment" but not a planned thrill kill.

Anyway, I am just preparing myself to be disappointed by this upcoming "fictionalized" show.

 

[Backwoods]

Lots of information from around the time of Mr. Gilman's disappearance to be found in the articles archived here:

http://projectjason.org/forums/topic/115-missing-man-gilbert-gilman-wa-06242006/


I was a little surprised that he doesn't have a Missing thread here at WS, but apparently he never has.

 

[Backwoods]

The following is quoted from GGE's IK timeline here on WS at this link:
[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9801059&postcount=1"]Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - Israel Keyes Timelines *NO DISCUSSION*[/ame]

June 11, 2006: Hotel reservation (Red Lion) - Port Angeles, Washington.

June 22, 2006: Drove from Neah Bay, Washington to Ridgefield, Oregon to pick up ATVs for work.

I show the dates/activity because, in reading some articles about Gilbert Gilman, I found mention of another man who disappeared that same June, in reasonably the same area: Stephen Michael "Mike" Mason. I am putting some links to info about him and his disappearance at the end of this post.

Some sources say his missing date is 6-20-2006, some say 6-23-2006.

If we are going to consider Gilbert Gilman, I don't see why we shouldn't consider Mike Mason as well. (What if, just before and/or then during that "trip to pick up ATVs for work", Keyes was in killing mode and decided to take two sidetrips?)

In some ways, Mason seems a more likely target (and, at least, just as likely) for Keyes as Gilman. And, in contrast to that for Gilman, the search for this poor fellow seems as if it was not very extensive.

Charley Project:

http://www.charleyproject.org/cases/m/mason_stephen.html



about Mason and Gilman:

Two years pass since two hikers go missing, but they're not forgotten

http://www.peninsuladailynews.com/article/20080622/NEWS/806220306

Missing man's family hopes for resolution

http://www.peninsuladailynews.com/article/20090619/news/306199990

3 years missing

http://search.sequimgazette.com/news/article.exm/2009-07-01_3_years_missing

 

[Iwatchingeye]

I can't find a working link to the news story posted previously on Maura Murray's WS Thread but it has IK running a marathon June 2006 in Olympia WA. When I try searching of course the first million suggestions are of the recent story and correction to the recent story. I don't know if this is good enough,

[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8188279"]http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8188279[/ame]

It is post 182 by OldSteve

I have read that Gilbert was in the area for a marathon as well. I remember very early in this story if you put in a search for Isreal Keyes marathon their was a page listing the people who placed and what place and he was listed (wish I had saved). Again I'm not sure this is within posting guideline or not.

 

[Backwoods]

I can't find a working link to the news story posted previously on Maura Murray's WS Thread but it has IK running a marathon June 2006 in Olympia WA. When I try searching of course the first million suggestions are of the recent story and correction to the recent story. I don't know if this is good enough,

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8188279

It is post 182 by OldSteve

I have read that Gilbert was in the area for a marathon as well. I remember very early in this story if you put in a search for Isreal Keyes marathon their was a page listing the people who placed and what place and he was listed (wish I had saved). Again I'm not sure this is within posting guideline or not.

bbm: The marathon thing is confusion to me right at the moment. Some of the Dark Minds "preview" articles DO say Gilman was in the area to participate in a marathon -- but others (later? corrected?) read that Keyes was involved in the marathon and do not mention Gilman's participation. So I am wondering if stating a Gilman connection to the marathon might not be just yet another error in the first of the promo articles (as we have been discussing, there were errors).

I'll keep looking for something more definitive on the marathon.


ETA: As to Keyes' participation in marathons around that time, the IK Acting at Random blog has this (quote below) to say, with a note indicating the source, a link that will lead you here: https://www.athlinks.com/Result/Claim?viewType=SearchByTerm&term=Israel%20Keyes (If this link does not bring up Keyes' marathon record for you, you may have to type in his name and search -- don't put in a birth year*.)

...In 2006, Israel Keyes enrolls in a race series on the Washington peninsula called the Athlete's Choice Race Series. On March eleventh, he participates in the Lincoln Park Run (Port Angeles) and clocks in at 44:42. On April eighth, he does the Robin Hill Run 10k/5k (Sequim) and comes in at 45:39. On May 6th he does the Sequim Run Off 10k/5k and comes in at 41:25. (33)

Four days later, on May tenth, Keyes flies out of Portland, Oregon and arrive in San Diego, California. He flies home five days later.

On June eleventh, he runs the North Olympic Discovery Marathon and Half Marathon and comes in at 3:56:51, under bib 2438. He places a respectable 90 out of the over 200 other people who ran. ...

http://israelkeyes.blogspot.com/


* Interesting that the results at the marathon site show IK (if you do not enter a birth year) at different ages (20 and 25) in 2006. One thing that means is: I don't know any way to "prove" for sure that all those entries are for "the" IK. It could mean some other things, too.

 

[SMK]

I have looked through pages and threads but did not seem to find Shantina Smiley; apologies if this has already been posted.

I have only just now heard of Israel Keyes (from watching a Dateline rerun) and when I heard he had victims in the state of WA, immediately thought of Shantina Smiley (never found) and her 8 yr old son Azriel (found drowned).

1. It was in the Puget Sound beach, WA area.
2. Keyes has spoken of one of his killings being misidentified as an "accident"
3. It is believed Shantina and her son were out driving and got lost (or possibly trying to avoid her fiance) and this would put them in remote locations, and position them to be targeted or approached by Keyes
4. It fits his timeline and MO of killing mother and child , positioning of their van after abduction (backed toward rising lake); robbery (her purse was missing >>>(if he is also Boca mall killer, which I believe he is)
5. Keyes has said he particularly like it when "his victims came to him"; Shantina was in distress that night, and had already sought help at someone's house. If Keyes were hanging around by the lake or anywhere nearby, he sadly had the look of "a safe, nerdy guy" and would likely be someone Shantina would have thought she could safely approach. (In fact, her own family had suspected just such an abduction scenario, and many posters here had intuited this 'stranger' back in 2010)

Missing boy's death ruled an accidental drowning

March 19, 2010

The Pierce County Medical Examiner's Office said Friday that 8-year-old Azriel Carver drowned and that his death was an accident.

The boy's body was found Thursday on a beach at the south end of Fox Island.

Another day of searching on Friday yielded no news in the hunt for the boy's missing mother, Shantina Smiley, 29, of Silverdale, Kitsap County.

"No, we haven't heard of anything being found," Thurston County sheriff's Lt. Chris Mealy said Friday night.

Thurston County had a boat in the water Friday looking for Smiley.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2011393025_missing20m.html

 

[gtm]

I have looked through pages and threads but did not seem to find Shantina Smiley; apologies if this has already been posted.

I have only just now heard of Israel Keyes (from watching a Dateline rerun) and when I heard he had victims in the state of WA, immediately thought of Shantina Smiley (never found) and her 8 yr old son Azriel (found drowned).

1. It was in the Puget Sound beach, WA area.
2. Keyes has spoken of one of his killings being misidentified as an "accident"
3. It is believed Shantina and her son were out driving and got lost (or possibly trying to avoid her fiance) and this would put them in remote locations, and position them to be targeted or approached by Keyes
4. It fits his timeline and MO of killing mother and child , positioning of their van after abduction (backed toward rising lake); robbery (her purse was missing >>>(if he is also Boca mall killer, which I believe he is)
5. Keyes has said he particularly like it when "his victims came to him"; Shantina was in distress that night, and had already sought help at someone's house. If Keyes were hanging around by the lake or anywhere nearby, he sadly had the look of "a safe, nerdy guy" and would likely be someone Shantina would have thought she could safely approach. (In fact, her own family had suspected just such an abduction scenario, and many posters here had intuited this 'stranger' back in 2010)

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2011393025_missing20m.html

Keyes was in Alaska at the time of her disappearance.

http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

 

[SMK]

Keyes was in Alaska at the time of her disappearance.

http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

Yes, as I said on your other post, I am just baffled now. And still wondering if somehow he didn't return to WA. Also, on the FBI page it says : March 1, 2010 to March 10, 2010: Western U.S. and then it skips to April?

 

[gtm]

Yes, as I said on your other post, I am just baffled now. And still wondering if somehow he didn't return to WA. Also, on the FBI page it says : March 1, 2010 to March 10, 2010: Western U.S. and then it skips to April?

It is possible, but not likely, that he would return 2 days later with no records of it. You cannot board a plane with no ID.

So, although the FBI does not give details, we can assume that he was in Anchorage and his whereabouts are accounted for March 11-April 23, 2010.

 

[Backwoods]

Yes, as I said on your other post, I am just baffled now. And still wondering if somehow he didn't return to WA. Also, on the FBI page it says : March 1, 2010 to March 10, 2010: Western U.S. and then it skips to April?

There is a lot of discussion going on here and there (and "downstairs") about the 2010 timeline, particularly regarding the first half of the year.

An earlier (Dec. 2012) FBI timeline is at the link just below and does include time in the lower 48 in the first half of 2010:

• December 17, 2009 to December 29, 2009: Southern U.S.
• January 11, 2010 to February 25, 2010: Western U.S.
• March 1, 2010 to March 10, 2010: Western U.S.
• April 24, 2010 to April 30, 2010: Western U.S.
• May 19, 2010 to July 18, 2010: Midwest U.S. and Western U.S.
• July 18, 2010 to July 22, 2010: Southwest U.S.

excerpted from: http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

The Aug. 2013 FBI timeline does not include most of those dates -- does not say he was in Alaska, just does not say anything about his whereabouts:

http://www.fbi.gov/portland/press-r...istance-in-case-of-serial-killer-israel-keyes

There seems to be a range of opinions about what the discrepancy between the two timelines actually means.

 

[SMK]

There is a lot of discussion going on here and there (and "downstairs") about the 2010 timeline, particularly regarding the first half of the year.

An earlier (Dec. 2012) FBI timeline is at the link just below and does include time in the lower 48 in the first half of 2010:



excerpted from: http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

The Aug. 2013 FBI timeline does not include most of those dates -- does not say he was in Alaska, just does not say anything about his whereabouts:

http://www.fbi.gov/portland/press-r...istance-in-case-of-serial-killer-israel-keyes

There seems to be a range of opinions about what the discrepancy between the two timelines actually means.

Thank you so much for this. To me, it really solves the mystery of Shantina Smiley and her son when you plug Israel Keyes into the picture. Even his musing about putting bodies in deep lakes: I am sure Shantina is in the lake, and who else would have put her there? It just intuitively fits, and perhaps something brought him back there on the 13th. I may be wrong, but thus far, Keyes has "clicked" for me with that case, when nothing else has.

 

[gtm]

Thank you so much for this. To me, it really solves the mystery of Shantina Smiley and her son when you plug Israel Keyes into the picture. Even his musing about putting bodies in deep lakes: I am sure Shantina is in the lake, and who else would have put her there? It just intuitively fits, and perhaps something brought him back there on the 13th. I may be wrong, but thus far, Keyes has "clicked" for me with that case, when nothing else has.

That Portland press release is not a complete timeline. It is a description of his known criminal or travel activities:
http://www.fbi.gov/portland/press-r...istance-in-case-of-serial-killer-israel-keyes

This is a timeline:
http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

Times not included here are when his whereabouts where known. Remember he was a general contractor and did lots of work in Anchorage. The FBI has spent much manpower, done hundreds of interviews and spent millions in tax dollars to make and verify this timeline, so I assume it is the best info.

I can find no discrepancies between the two.

 

[SMK]

That Portland press release is not a complete timeline. It is a description of his known criminal or travel activities:
http://www.fbi.gov/portland/press-r...istance-in-case-of-serial-killer-israel-keyes

This is a timeline:
http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

Times not included here are when his whereabouts where known. Remember he was a general contractor and did lots of work in Anchorage. The FBI has spent much manpower, done hundreds of interviews and spent millions in tax dollars to make and verify this timeline, so I assume it is the best info.

I can find no discrepancies between the two.

I guess I'll have to accept it. I just cannot believe - now that I know there was such a rare person as Keyes - that someone else used his MO with Shantina Smiley

 

[gtm]

I guess I'll have to accept it. I just cannot believe - now that I know there was such a rare person as Keyes - that someone else used his MO with Shantina Smiley

I feel like we really don't know his MO.

I have not read about this case before today, but just for discussion, 2 things do not fit my view of his methods: 1) She was driving to Castle Rock from Silverdale. Busy highway (i.e.witnesses). We do know he relied on secrecy.2) The child was found drowned. Keyes had a child roughly the same age, and stated he not hurt children (but we do not know for sure).

In addition, it appears she was a troubled person. Sad.

I hope I am not coming off as too much of a naysayer. I would hate for a family to get false hope about closure so it is important to me that rule out cases when we have facts (dates) that say not possible (or very unlikely).

 

[Backwoods]

I guess I'll have to accept it. I just cannot believe - now that I know there was such a rare person as Keyes - that someone else used his MO with Shantina Smiley

SMK, gtm suggested in The Accident Victim thread that we keep the current timeline discussion in one thread, just for ease -- and I agree. You might want to see how I replied over there.

I don't know much about Shantina's case (I am going to try to make some time to look further at it, though) and I don't KNOW that IK was in the area at the time. I am just not yet fully convinced that he was in Alaska then, either.

 

[Backwoods]

That Portland press release is not a complete timeline. It is a description of his known criminal or travel activities:
http://www.fbi.gov/portland/press-r...istance-in-case-of-serial-killer-israel-keyes

This is a timeline:
http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

Times not included here are when his whereabouts where known. Remember he was a general contractor and did lots of work in Anchorage. The FBI has spent much manpower, done hundreds of interviews and spent millions in tax dollars to make and verify this timeline, so I assume it is the best info.

I can find no discrepancies between the two.

Both of your links are to FBI press releases stating that what is contained as far as dates, etc., is a timeline. The difference is that one predates the other.

 

[SMK]

I feel like we really don't know his MO.

I have not read about this case before today, but just for discussion, 2 things do not fit my view of his methods: 1) She was driving to Castle Rock from Silverdale. Busy highway (i.e.witnesses). We do know he relied on secrecy.2) The child was found drowned. Keyes had a child roughly the same age, and stated he not hurt children (but we do not know for sure).

In addition, it appears she was a troubled person. Sad.

I hope I am not coming off as too much of a naysayer. I would hate for a family to get false hope about closure so it is important to me that rule out cases when we have facts (dates) that say not possible (or very unlikely).

Yes, I would agree that false hope is NOT what families of victims need, or should have.

I do have to note, though, that Shantina Smiley was lost, and had gone off the main roads; it was night, and she was parked in a lake area which was secluded (which Keyes would have been attracted to).

As far as killing a child goes, I am one of those who wholly believes that Keyes was connected to the Boca Mall murders, in which a seven year old girl was in fact killed.

Smiley had just secured a new job after having completed schooling; she was engaged to be married, and was a Scout master for her son's boy scout troop. Her more troubled days were behind her. Obviously, someone killed her and her boy, and I don't believe she drove the van down that dirt road and into the water.