POLL: What do you think the verdict will be

Discussion in 'Allison Baden-Clay of Australia' started by marlywings, Jun 28, 2014.

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What do you think the verdict will be??

  1. Not Guilty

    17 vote(s)
    9.9%
  2. Guilty of murder

    135 vote(s)
    78.9%
  3. Guilty of manslaughter

    11 vote(s)
    6.4%
  4. undecided

    8 vote(s)
    4.7%
  1. marlywings

    marlywings Former Member

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    I thought it would be interesting to have a poll for what you think the verdict will be??

     
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  3. Pyjamas

    Pyjamas New Member

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    Blood in the car, plant matter from garden found in hair, fingernail scratches to face & other physical injuries to GBC. Unbelievable stories to explain injuries & unlikely scenarios regarding Allison's last dicussions & movements. His total disregard towards Allison & only caring about himself. Financial pressure, self-inflicted pressure from situation with tmch & it becoming public knowledge that he was immoral and incompetent in business. A weak man who has likely lashed out & killed Allison when he was finally forced to admit ownership for the crap situation he had put them in. Too many lies & not man enough to admit what he's done. If he was innocent, why did his transparent father' attempt to take ownership of Gerard's actions after her death? Shallow Clays. Australians dont give damn about where you come from & don't appreciate those who feel the need to 'sell themselves'. This family will learn the hard way about integrity & decency.
     
  4. KG1

    KG1 Registered user

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    The total circumstances revealed to date point to the accused and the accused only. Plenty of motive and the only person likely to do harm to Allison. Suicide ruled out, accidental overdose ruled out, random stranger ruled out, kidnapping ruled out, mistress ruled out. Positive evidence for conviction - face tears, body bruises, leaf litter from family home entangled in victim's hair, accused's behaviour on 20/4/2012 in morning with 'too early' missing person report, blood in car and staging of toys in boot to give impression of static occupancy of same, familiarity with area of body disposal, close to scout camp well known to accused, use of Captiva in morning, rather than his usual Prado, obvious lie re phone charger connection at 1.48am, made bed, emails to TM relating to committment to 1/7/2012 and especially the one 'leave it to me now', 21/4/2012 doctor visits, insurance money, contact with insurance company when body was found on 30/4/2012, but contact was before body was identified. I find last one very damning, but not sure if this has come out in evidence, so jury may not be aware. Smacks of guilty knowledge to me.
     
  5. Meryl12

    Meryl12 New Member

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    The husband was the only person with a reason to kill her. He has been exposed as a weak, greedy and incompetant man, and also the only person with a reason to kill Allison.
    Fortunately (for deceased Allison) he has made a lot of mistakes so a guilty verdict looks promising.
     
  6. ollijack

    ollijack New Member

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    I believe it will be a guilty verdict
     
  7. Trooper

    Trooper Well-Known Member

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    Guilty of both charges with no mitigating factors and a heck of lot of aggravating factors...


    (a).. Alison was murdered in her own home.. this is a huge aggravating factor..

    (b).. he did it for the money.. this is the biggest agg factor of all, and will get him at least another 7 to 8 years on the base sentence.

    (c). she was his wife.. . Taxpayers all around the country contribute to the cost of the Divorce court in Australia.. its a mechanism designed to end marriages ,. 50,000 Australians a year use it. Nothing special about Gerard.. he had an out, but imagined he was in special circumstances.. big agg factor.

    (d) .. his children were sleeping in the same house at the same time of the murder.. add on 6 years for that.

    (e). he has pleaded not guilty.. therefore he gets no discount on the base sentence for murder in QLD...

    (f) .... it was a stupid murder, done by a stupid man.... he put 100's of search and rescue people's lives at risk. He stayed silent , when it is certainly possible to suggest that Alison may still have been alive, barely, while he kept silent as to her whereabouts.. which he knew. Indisputably. His silence absolutely assured her death , in dreadful circumstances. Judges quite often add a few years for utter and relentless stupidity..

    (g).. all the other factors in the case ...... the face gouges, the mistimed call to the police, the horrendous debt and the intolerable pressure this had on him, despite all the rubbish that it didn't. .....right down to xyz.
     
  8. fruity

    fruity Active Member

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    guilty of murder.
     
  9. minusfour

    minusfour Active Member

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    Guilty for sure. A strong case, supported by GBC deciding to testify.
     
  10. BigT

    BigT Active Member

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    You need to satisfy yourself, beyond any emotion.
     
  11. Orsen

    Orsen New Member

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    This idiot is running out of excuses, pretty sure his last words on Australia Tonight are going to be "....that dingo stole my alibi"
     
  12. BatWoman

    BatWoman New Member

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    I was a bit concerned with the evidence proffered by the prosecution, but I think Gerry will well and truly sink his own battleship.
     
  13. Brightbird

    Brightbird New Member

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    Apparently I've voted but I can't remember doing that, lol. Hopefully I voted guilty of murder because that's what I think.
     
  14. ~Katie~

    ~Katie~ Member

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    At this stage, guilty of murder.

    I feel that it has been proven beyond reasonable doubt. The scratches ( and GBC's ridiculous explanation for them) and the clean, new-looking razor that supposedly did the damage are probably the most conclusive pieces of evidence for me, removing any doubt. I can't think of anything the defence could present now that would make me doubt GBC's guilt.

    If there was a charge relating to disposing of a body (I think there was, but it was dropped?), then I would still have reasonable doubt and not be able to find him guilty, as I believe he could have had help from *someone*


    But I don't have any doubt about the murder charge. I've considered as many different scenarios as I can think of, but nothing else seems plausible. And thinking back to another highly publicised murder trial - I felt that there was much more reasonable doubt in the Keli Lane case, but the jury returned a guilty verdict (maybe not comparable as it was a very different case, but it gives me hope that the jury will consider that the threshold has been met).
     
  15. ford71

    ford71 New Member

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    Brightbird, you can see which one you have voted for at the top of the page.
    The one that is now in italics is your vote.

    89votes so far, and 10% of those are for Not Guilty - surprising to me to be honest, particularly on this forum. But it means little, there's only 12 votes we need to be concerned with.

    Oh, and I think he is definitely guilty.
    That 'little bit hurt' video would be enough - and there's so much more!
     
  16. Brightbird

    Brightbird New Member

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    Thanks ford71. I did vote guilty of murder.
     
  17. itsthevibe

    itsthevibe Verified insider - Allison Baden-Clay case

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    I voted for Unsure - but now i feel closer to saying he will be found guilty of manslaughter.
     
  18. PrimeSuspect

    PrimeSuspect Active Member

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    I voted Guilty of Murder.

    The facts - gouges on GBC's face and injuries on body, particularly the one under the right shoulder, Allison's blood in Captiva which was a relatively new car at the time, the leaves and debris in Allison's head area and on arms which are not found at Kholo Ck but at her home address, Allison's missing mobile phone, GBC's phone placed on charger at 1.48am, emails to Toni M that he would be free by July 1, 2012, using the Captiva to search for Allison when Prado is the car he normally drives.

    Other things that bother me -

    Mrs Dickie saying the home looked 'sterile', not as normal.

    Mrs Dickie comment about how GBC looked 'cool as a cucumber'. Sometimes murderers overplay this part.

    Allison found with jumper up above head, like she had been dragged by her feet and jumper came up.

    GBC contacting police so early.

    Calling his parents, police, friends before calling Allison's mother or friends.

    Excuse for gouges on face made by an old razor, which by a police officer's account, looked worse in person than the photos depicted.

    GBC's crash into concrete pylon at Indooroopilly on the way to Police Station 2 days after Allison reported missing.

    GBC's business failing and in enormous debt, owed friends and family huge amounts of money.

    Allison's life insurance payout of nearly 1 million dollars.

    Allison's life insurance policy premium was overdue and on an extension for another 10 days.

    Allison's enquiry about reducing her life insurance policy premium.

    Allison's diary entries of broken promises, insults, infidelity and longing to be loved by her husband.

    GBC affair with TM to whom he was making a solid commitment of a date he would be with her, that he would take care of things.

    Allison and TM to be at the same conference on 20/4/12.

    GBC in court saying he didn't mind about his wife and mistress being at same venue. Most adulterers would be very nervous, and yet he couldn't admit that at least.

    TM demanding GBC tell Allison she would be at conference and he said he would.

    GBC 8 minute interview recorded by police 2 days after Allison's disappearance, he could not say Allison or Al, he called her, 'she and her'.

    Toys in back of Captiva.

    Allison's body being dumped at Kholo Ck, not close enough for the immediate search to find, but close enough for GBC to make approximate 1 hour round trip and for her being found soon enough.

    GBC's insistence that Allison was still severely depressed and wouldn't drive yet later would talk about how Allison would drive places in her own car.

    Allison's phone missing never to be found.

    Allison buying a treadmill which irritated GBC because of the expense and yet, not using it when she would be going to an important conference. Time wise she would have used the treadmill and probably did on the night of the 19/4/12.

    Prosecutor remarking how tight the gap between bed and treadmill where charger located for him not to know Allison placed phone in the early hours.

    He said he didn't know if Allison came to bed but later said she must have because her side was turned down. He has to make us believe she came to bed. He said he last saw her at 10pm on the sofa watching the Footy Show before retiring to bed.

    GBC response to Mr Fuller that it was absurd that he would leave his children in the middle of night and doing those dastardly things. Why absurd, he must realize he would be the first suspect?

    He told the court he was chiefly concerned his wife had slipped, hit her head and been knocked unconscious while on her morning walk.

    GBC claims that he didn't know the Kholo Ck area, yet there is a scout hall near the creek and he has driven over the bridge many times. Also there is real estate property out at Anstead he manages.

    GBC calling insurance agency after a woman's body found at Kholo Creek.

    GBC asking daughter to put bandaid on gouges on face. His daughter remarking he came into room with shaving cream on face, never did it before. Yet by GBC's claims it was usual for him to do several things at once with 3 children and a business to run so why slice his face several times because he was hurried.

    GBC talking about his image yet he told the principal at his children's school that he was having an affair because of rumours.

    GBC talking about his image even though he's an estate agent??!

    GBC's great memory for many years gone past, yet can't recall events around the time Allison went missing when questioned by Mr Fuller.

    _________________________________________________________________

    My theory is that Allison was murdered by GBC on the night of the 19/4/12. I believe it happened either in lounge room/kitchen or outside rear patio. Allison fought for her life and scratched, punched and gouged at GBC with her hands while he was strangling her, he may have used jumper as a ligature. He then dragged her to the Captiva and threw her in the back, he may have laid plastic tarp down prior.
    I believe GBC did not scout for an area that night to dump the body, he instinctively knew where because it was an area he knew well enough.
    One of the children could have woken up that night but as they had a swim earlier, they would have slept straight through but it was also a risk GBC had to take. GBC is a risk taker.
    GBC disposed of evidence like mobile phone, tarp and Allison's pjs and any other incriminating evidence. When he returned home I believe he tidied up the lounge and kitchen area.
    He placed his phone on charger at 1.48 am before he got a few hours sleep if any.
    GBC drove the Captiva in the morning to search for Allison. This was so he could clean out car somewhere private, pull car over into areas where tyre tread marks might be in case Allison was found, he could say he pulled up at Kholo Ck but didn't see her. He had to make sure he covered all bases.
    His own car was damaged from a smash but he had driven it up until that morning.
    I believe also GBC used the Captiva to dispose of body just in case anyone saw that car on the road while driving to dispose of body. He would say it was Allison driving for whatever reason that night, again covering all bases.

    JMO
     
  19. kiwi50

    kiwi50 Active Member

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    Hopefully guilty, but one can never be confident with a jury, sadly these days the result isn't about justice but just about who has the smartest lawyer.
    I think it will hinge on each jurors opinion of what constitutes reasonable doubt.
    I'm sure the Defence will push this in the summing up.
     
  20. Aussie_expat.sg

    Aussie_expat.sg New Member

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    I am probably massively tainted by the Casey Anthony case because I could not believe that they could vote NOT guilty with all the evidence that existed, circumstantial and otherwise. It shocked me to the core - i think i was angry for weeks (my family gave me a bad time about that). So i'm now convinced that it is more likely for a jury to err on the side of not guilty when forced to talk about doubt. They will try to be definitive in their assessment - and let's face it, "reasonable doubt" is hardly well defined. Please surprise me QLD jury! I want justice for Allison.
     
  21. silverau

    silverau New Member

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    I voted manslaughter because I thought he would break on the stand.

    But he broke in some ways,he contradicted himself and was snarky.

    I kept thinking maybe someone else killed her and his behaviour and attitudes were cooincidental. Then I remembered after the defense rested: he has fingernail scratches on his face. whether or not he acted alone,I wish I could vote guilty instead.
     

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