Possible Victim: Shannan Gilbert

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MrsPC

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just adding to my post about the photo....

I've searched & searched for something that might resemble what I think I'm seeing on top of Shannan's body....and the closest thing I can come up with is some sort of sump pump.

Do beach residents have basements or a need for a sump pump??
 

MrsPC

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Although Mari said she wasn't a drug user, there were at least two others close to her that said that she was. They said she used coke and ecstasy.

Have you ever mixed those two? I have, when I was much younger.

I'll tell you what the result is...

Absolute panic. I was positively sure I was going to die for about 3-4 hours.

SG's panic didn't have to be bipolar related. Her panic could have been completely drug related. The whole concept of buying playing cards from CVS in the middle of the night??? C'mon. That's a hallmark of a coke binge if I've ever seen one.

MrsPC, I truly respect your thought processes and opinions here at Websleuths, but you stated in the above post that you were 100% positive Shannan died of a homicide. I think you need to back that up. I mean, if you said that you were 100% positive that the GB4 died of a homicide, nobody would disagree. But Shannan? I'm at like a 1% chance that this was a homicide based on the evidence and information that we have available that we've exhaustively analyzed and debated. By the way, did I mention that I REALLY respect your thought process? Also by the way MrsPC, what is your take on the Carman Monaco Jr. thread?

I don't think I need to "back up" my opinion that Gilbert was murdered. It's just what "I believe."

As far as Monaco....I think you've done a great deal of research but it's my opinion that the killer is directly related to the Oak Beach community and from what I've read Monaco isn't.

but that's just my 2 cents :)
 

inspctrgadget

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And still yet, I mixed those 2 drugs numerous times in my early 20s and had a great time. Everyone is different. I totally get your point, but just as I was saying to MSPC that not everyone survives an acid trip intact even though she did, it isn't true that coke and E always result in panic. That is not a hard fact. If that were the case, alot of raves back in the 90s would've been nothing but a bunch of bummed out terrified kids instead of a party;-)

Point well taken.

Still, the totality of the evidence suggests that:
1) Shannan was into recreational drugs.
2) Shannan had a history of diagnosed bipolar disorder.
3) Shannan was at least for a time prescribed prescription drugs to treat bipolar disorder.
4) By all accounts, including JB, MP, GC and potentially the 911 operator/police, Shannan was having some type of "episode".
5) Shannan's body was discovered in a ditch not far from where she was last seen having the "episode"
6) There was no clear evidence of foul play (no burlap, no strangulation, no dismemberment, etc.).

All of the other "stuff" can be explained pretty rationally. Most notably the "rehab" call.

Now, I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I can promise you that you couldn't get multiple, dispassionate actors together (JB, GC, MP) to all agree that Shannan was having an episode when she wasn't truly having one. That's just not something that they could all coordinate. So the far greater likelihood is that she was really having a medical episode, drug or otherwise.

So we're left with the coincidence that a woman probably died of accidental causes in an area used as a dumping ground by a serial killer.

Other than that, there's not enough to say that Shannan's death was the result of a homicide.

NY is one of the most populated areas in the world. Long Island is a major suburb. This area of "town" is about as remote as you get in the metro area, at least on the south shore of Nassau and eastern Suffolk. So any one of the 1.5-2 million people that live on Long Island that had an idea to dispose of a body? They would assuredly chose Jones Beach or anywhere along Ocean Parkway. I know this is kind of sick to say, but I'm actually surprised that more bodies weren't discovered along this stretch of road. So the fact that Shannan went missing in the vicinity and subsequently bodies were found within 3-5 miles? While it seems like an incontrovertible coincidence, it's not. It's actually probably more likely for such independent events to occur than not, in the ultimate scheme of things given the population density.

Btw, I think I missed the whole rave scene by a couple years. But you're point is salient. It could have been anything that made Shannan go berserk.

I just highly doubt it was a homicide at this point (even though I was 100% positive that it was only 6-12 months ago!).
 

MrsPC

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we don't really know if #6 on your list is fact yet...do we?
 

inspctrgadget

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we don't really know if #6 on your list is fact yet...do we?

Agreed, 1000%.

But we know she was not dismembered. We know she wasn't found wrapped in burlap. Over a year in a salt water marsh? There will be little evidence to point to strangulation. Think about it. Water flowing in, water flowing out... Even if she had a broken neck it could have been from the marsh's tidal surf. That the medical examiner refused to provide a COD was prudent, not evidence that she was murdered. My previous posts elucidated the fact that it is incumbent upon a medical examiner to consider the broader investigation in their final, definitive determination of COD. That the ME didn't provide a COD given that the investigation is ongoing... Prudence, not evidence.
 

inspctrgadget

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I don't think I need to "back up" my opinion that Gilbert was murdered. It's just what "I believe."

As far as Monaco....I think you've done a great deal of research but it's my opinion that the killer is directly related to the Oak Beach community and from what I've read Monaco isn't.

but that's just my 2 cents :)

OK, fair enough, so let's start there.

Let me ask you this...

If Shannan had never gone missing, would you still believe that the serial killer was from Oak Beach? If so, why?
 

MrsPC

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OK, fair enough, so let's start there.

Let me ask you this...

If Shannan had never gone missing, would you still believe that the serial killer was from Oak Beach? If so, why?

because it seems he stopped killing...and IMO, that means police got too close.
 

truthspider

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Point well taken.

Still, the totality of the evidence suggests that:
1) Shannan was into recreational drugs.
2) Shannan had a history of diagnosed bipolar disorder.
3) Shannan was at least for a time prescribed prescription drugs to treat bipolar disorder.
4) By all accounts, including JB, MP, GC and potentially the 911 operator/police, Shannan was having some type of "episode".
5) Shannan's body was discovered in a ditch not far from where she was last seen having the "episode"
6) There was no clear evidence of foul play (no burlap, no strangulation, no dismemberment, etc.).

All of the other "stuff" can be explained pretty rationally. Most notably the "rehab" call.


Hey Gadget,

I did a little pavement pounding (I'm officially a wanna be detective now) and this is what I have found out for you.I couldn't locate Carman directly at the address you gave me, but the friendly people there were able to tell me how to find him. After getting in touch with him (he's practically a neighbor and I managed to know some people he knows, Patchogue is a small world!) and asking him a few basic questions, I found out that he is much more normal than I would have expected. I was thinking he would be some wanna be scary gangster or something and that was not at all the case, we actually ended up talking quite a bit about the LISK case, because naturally he wanted to know who the hell I was and why the hell I was looking for him!! After convincing him that I wasn't a cop (I have a method for that) he opened up quite a bit about his prior offenses, I wasn't interested but he just wouldn't stop. Turns out there is no way in hell this guy is the LISK, I am no professional detective, but I am pretty street wise, and he is no killer! :floorlaugh:. Ironically, for a guy who terrorized women he didn't know over the phone he seemed a bit bothered by the notion that people on the internet were debating whether he could be the long island serial killer. Honestly it was just so meach easier to knock on a locals door then go the police dept.(ick) and start asking for some random guys records, but at this point I really don't see the point in doing that now..... Oh patchogue how you keep life interesting....
 

truthspider

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Agreed, 1000%.

But we know she was not dismembered. We know she wasn't found wrapped in burlap. Over a year in a salt water marsh? There will be little evidence to point to strangulation. Think about it. Water flowing in, water flowing out... Even if she had a broken neck it could have been from the marsh's tidal surf. That the medical examiner refused to provide a COD was prudent, not evidence that she was murdered. My previous posts elucidated the fact that it is incumbent upon a medical examiner to consider the broader investigation in their final, definitive determination of COD. That the ME didn't provide a COD given that the investigation is ongoing... Prudence, not evidence.

"marsh's tidal surf" ?????? sorry did you say surf? no, no, no, come on inspector....

Absence of evidence isn't the logical equivalent of evidence of absence....you should know that.

In fact, given the circumstances of this case, absence of forensic evidence actually points to a certain perp doesn't it?

If the report states she has a broken neck ... someone gonna be in trouble....
 

Reannan

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Hey Gadget,

I did a little pavement pounding (I'm officially a wanna be detective now) and this is what I have found out for you.I couldn't locate Carman directly at the address you gave me, but the friendly people there were able to tell me how to find him. After getting in touch with him (he's practically a neighbor and I managed to know some people he knows, Patchogue is a small world!) and asking him a few basic questions, I found out that he is much more normal than I would have expected. I was thinking he would be some wanna be scary gangster or something and that was not at all the case, we actually ended up talking quite a bit about the LISK case, because naturally he wanted to know who the hell I was and why the hell I was looking for him!! After convincing him that I wasn't a cop (I have a method for that) he opened up quite a bit about his prior offenses, I wasn't interested but he just wouldn't stop. Turns out there is no way in hell this guy is the LISK, I am no professional detective, but I am pretty street wise, and he is no killer! :floorlaugh:. Ironically, for a guy who terrorized women he didn't know over the phone he seemed a bit bothered by the notion that people on the internet were debating whether he could be the long island serial killer. Honestly it was just so meach easier to knock on a locals door then go the police dept.(ick) and start asking for some random guys records, but at this point I really don't see the point in doing that now..... Oh patchogue how you keep life interesting....

You actually spoke with Monaco? :eek:
 

goathairjones

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The Black Hawk Helicopter with the classified camera was directly over that location in April 2011 (and I have video from News12 to confirm that) and her body was NOT there at that time. If her body was there, either on the surface or slightly underwater in a ditch, the classified camera on the Black Hawk helicopter would have picked it up. That camera does not lie!

Not to mention that the precise area where SG was found was searched thoroughly on foot as well!
 

Clem Snide

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Hey Gadget,

I did a little pavement pounding (I'm officially a wanna be detective now) and this is what I have found out for you.I couldn't locate Carman directly at the address you gave me, but the friendly people there were able to tell me how to find him. After getting in touch with him (he's practically a neighbor and I managed to know some people he knows, Patchogue is a small world!) and asking him a few basic questions, I found out that he is much more normal than I would have expected. I was thinking he would be some wanna be scary gangster or something and that was not at all the case, we actually ended up talking quite a bit about the LISK case, because naturally he wanted to know who the hell I was and why the hell I was looking for him!! After convincing him that I wasn't a cop (I have a method for that) he opened up quite a bit about his prior offenses, I wasn't interested but he just wouldn't stop. Turns out there is no way in hell this guy is the LISK, I am no professional detective, but I am pretty street wise, and he is no killer! :floorlaugh:. Ironically, for a guy who terrorized women he didn't know over the phone he seemed a bit bothered by the notion that people on the internet were debating whether he could be the long island serial killer. Honestly it was just so meach easier to knock on a locals door then go the police dept.(ick) and start asking for some random guys records, but at this point I really don't see the point in doing that now..... Oh patchogue how you keep life interesting....

First of all, I'm curious as to how to convince somebody that you're not a cop. Did you pinky swear? If you lie on a pinky swear that you're not a cop, I think it's entrapment.

I appreciate your interest in the case, but aren't you concerned about overstepping your bounds? And what if he was the killer? I don't want you to end up in a pit in somebody's basement being told to put the lotion in the basket. Just sayin'.
 

Just K

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I continue to study the NY Post photo of Shannan's remains...and I've spent so much time enlarging, brightening, etc that I think I'm going to go blind.

But there is something in that photo I cannot figure out for the life of me...

and I don't believe it's Shannan's shirt.

IMO, it appears to be some sort of debris on top of her upper body and it appears to be "machine like."

in this picture, her skull is at the bottom and her legs are at the top and the black thing on her upper body is really what has me totally stumped. Anyway, I believe 100% that she was murdered.

I have wondered if this is a shadow cast by one of the LE officers who was standing just SE of her remains. Did you also notice the reflective spots in the areas where you would expect to see a bracelet and a necklace? if those two things were present with the remains...well, with all the storms, it would be really hard to believe that the skeleton, no less the jewelry on a wrist and neck would remain in place...unless that black item is a trash bag.
 

truthspider

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First of all, I'm curious as to how to convince somebody that you're not a cop. Did you pinky swear? If you lie on a pinky swear that you're not a cop, I think it's entrapment.

I appreciate your interest in the case, but aren't you concerned about overstepping your bounds?

"pinky swear" lol I like that... no, I simply knocked on his door at 4:27, it only took 3 minutes for him to see that I was not a cop, but was someone from his neighborhood looking out for his interests....just let him know "the streets" were talking about him with relation to the lisk case and he should keep an eye out for an actual SK who pretends to be a cop. I don't have bounds.
 

dcgrumpy

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because it seems he stopped killing...and IMO, that means police got too close.

Maybe the police got too close to his dumping ground, not his home. We don't positively know that he stopped killing. Maybe he just found a new dumping ground.

And actually 2 people were killed and dumped there after SG brought police to the area.
 

inspctrgadget

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Hey Gadget,

I did a little pavement pounding (I'm officially a wanna be detective now) and this is what I have found out for you.I couldn't locate Carman directly at the address you gave me, but the friendly people there were able to tell me how to find him. After getting in touch with him (he's practically a neighbor and I managed to know some people he knows, Patchogue is a small world!) and asking him a few basic questions, I found out that he is much more normal than I would have expected. I was thinking he would be some wanna be scary gangster or something and that was not at all the case, we actually ended up talking quite a bit about the LISK case, because naturally he wanted to know who the hell I was and why the hell I was looking for him!! After convincing him that I wasn't a cop (I have a method for that) he opened up quite a bit about his prior offenses, I wasn't interested but he just wouldn't stop. Turns out there is no way in hell this guy is the LISK, I am no professional detective, but I am pretty street wise, and he is no killer! :floorlaugh:. Ironically, for a guy who terrorized women he didn't know over the phone he seemed a bit bothered by the notion that people on the internet were debating whether he could be the long island serial killer. Honestly it was just so meach easier to knock on a locals door then go the police dept.(ick) and start asking for some random guys records, but at this point I really don't see the point in doing that now..... Oh patchogue how you keep life interesting....

All I can say is... Wow. That was reckless on any number of levels. I'm sure that if he is the SK he's destroying any potential evidence right now.

So I guess its safe to assume that he hasn't been re-interviewed by Suffolk County police since 2010 when the Manorville bodies were found on Ocean Parkway.

Did you ask him why was he was interviewed in 2005 regarding the Manorville slayings? Why did he call himself "Sal from Manorville" and threaten to put his victims with the "rest of those *advertiser censored*"?

Why was he paranoid that you were a cop?

Where does he work, where has he worked for the last 3-5 years?

Why was he surprised that people on the Internet thought he might be a person of interest given that police questioned him about murders that he seemingly claimed responsibility for? And since those women from Manorville were found in the vicinity of like 8 other bodies?

By the way, I didn't want you to go to the PD. I wanted you to go to the clerk of the court at the courthouse. That lack of attention to detail is alarming when considering your report on your rendezvous.

As far as your innate lie detecting capabilities, tell me the truth, Truth... Do you think that you would have been able to identify Joel Rifkin as a mass murderer if you had a similar opportunity to knock on his door?
 

inspctrgadget

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because it seems he stopped killing...and IMO, that means police got too close.

- 2 year gap (between MBB and MB)
- 1 year gap (between MB and MW)
- 4 month gap (between MW and ALC)
- 1 year 4 month gap (between ALC and now)

So he kills on average every 1.11 years (1 year, 1.5 months). At this point, he's only 2.5 months overdue.

I've excluded SG because there's a question as to whether or not she was a victim. I've excluded Manorville and the other victims because there's a question of whether they're related.

Also, note the following:

From:http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/serial-murder

Myth: Serial killers cannot stop killing.

It has been widely believed that once serial killers start killing, they cannot stop. There are, however, some serial killers who stop murdering altogether before being caught. In these instances, there are events or circumstances in offenders’ lives that inhibit them from pursuing more victims. These can include increased participation in family activities, sexual substitution, and other diversions.

• BTK killer, Dennis Rader, murdered ten victims from 1974 to 1991. He did not kill any other victims prior to being captured in 2005. During interviews conducted by law enforcement, Rader admitted to engaging in auto-erotic activities as a substitute for his killings.

• Jeffrey Gorton killed his first victim in 1986 and his next victim in 1991. He did not kill another victim and was captured in 2002. Gorton engaged in cross-dressing and masturbatory activities, as well as consensual sex with his wife in the interim.

......

Myth: Serial killers want to get caught.

Offenders committing a crime for the first time are inexperienced. They gain experience and confidence with each new offense, eventually succeeding with few mistakes or problems.

While most serial killers plan their offenses more thoroughly than other criminals, the learning curve is still very steep. They must select, target, approach, control, and dispose of their victims. The logistics involved in committing a murder and disposing of the body can become very complex, especially when there are multiple sites involved.

As serial killers continue to offend without being captured, they can become empowered, feeling they will never be identified. As the series continues, the killers may begin to take shortcuts when committing their crimes. This often causes the killers to take more chances, leading to identification by law enforcement. It is not that serial killers want to get caught; they feel that they can’t get caught.


______________


So there you have it. There are other reasons why the killing may appear to have stopped. The killer needs to recalibrate everything. The media attention has his potential victims being more careful, the police have discovered his comfort zone for disposal... And since he's only killed on average every 1.11 years, it's not surprising that he's only slightly behind schedule. Or he may have just substituted something else to fill that need.

My question was really meant to assume that Shannan had never gone missing, but that the other women's bodies were found. No investigation at Oak Beach, no CPH, no JB/Diaz/Pak/Mari. In THAT situation, would you think that the SK was from Oak Beach based merely on its proximity to the bodies?
 

truthspider

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Maybe the police got too close to his dumping ground, not his home. We don't positively know that he stopped killing. Maybe he just found a new dumping ground.

And actually 2 people were killed and dumped there after SG brought police to the area.

maybe the police didn't speak to him that summer when they first came to the area, maybe they did speak to him later on in the investigation, after the last of the G4 were dumped
 

dcgrumpy

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maybe the police didn't speak to him that summer when they first came to the area, maybe they did speak to him later on in the investigation, after the last of the G4

Police didn't talk to him after Mari Gilbert told them that he had called her? Or did she not tell the police until after the bodies were found?
 
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