because it seems he stopped killing...and IMO, that means police got too close.
- 2 year gap (between MBB and MB)
- 1 year gap (between MB and MW)
- 4 month gap (between MW and ALC)
- 1 year 4 month gap (between ALC and now)
So he kills on average every 1.11 years (1 year, 1.5 months). At this point, he's only 2.5 months overdue.
I've excluded SG because there's a question as to whether or not she was a victim. I've excluded Manorville and the other victims because there's a question of whether they're related.
Also, note the following:
From:
http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/serial-murder
Myth: Serial killers cannot stop killing.
It has been widely believed that once serial killers start killing, they cannot stop. There are, however, some serial killers who stop murdering altogether before being caught. In these instances, there are events or circumstances in offenders lives that inhibit them from pursuing more victims. These can include increased participation in family activities, sexual substitution, and other diversions.
BTK killer, Dennis Rader, murdered ten victims from 1974 to 1991. He did not kill any other victims prior to being captured in 2005. During interviews conducted by law enforcement, Rader admitted to engaging in auto-erotic activities as a substitute for his killings.
Jeffrey Gorton killed his first victim in 1986 and his next victim in 1991. He did not kill another victim and was captured in 2002. Gorton engaged in cross-dressing and masturbatory activities, as well as consensual sex with his wife in the interim.
......
Myth: Serial killers want to get caught.
Offenders committing a crime for the first time are inexperienced. They gain experience and confidence with each new offense, eventually succeeding with few mistakes or problems.
While most serial killers plan their offenses more thoroughly than other criminals, the learning curve is still very steep. They must select, target, approach, control, and dispose of their victims. The logistics involved in committing a murder and disposing of the body can become very complex, especially when there are multiple sites involved.
As serial killers continue to offend without being captured, they can become empowered, feeling they will never be identified. As the series continues, the killers may begin to take shortcuts when committing their crimes. This often causes the killers to take more chances, leading to identification by law enforcement. It is not that serial killers want to get caught; they feel that they cant get caught.
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So there you have it. There are other reasons why the killing may appear to have stopped. The killer needs to recalibrate everything. The media attention has his potential victims being more careful, the police have discovered his comfort zone for disposal... And since he's only killed on average every 1.11 years, it's not surprising that he's only slightly behind schedule. Or he may have just substituted something else to fill that need.
My question was really meant to assume that Shannan had never gone missing, but that the other women's bodies were found. No investigation at Oak Beach, no CPH, no JB/Diaz/Pak/Mari. In THAT situation, would you think that the SK was from Oak Beach based merely on its proximity to the bodies?
