Ukraine: what will China do? There are signs it is uneasy about Putin’s methods
Analysis: Beijing has held off from backing Russia, raising questions about the extent of any partnership
China’s decision to abstain on Friday night at the end of the UN security council vote condemning the Russian invasion of
Ukraine may be a source of deep frustration in the west, but it will also send a nervous tremor through the Russian ministry of foreign affairs that China’s protection is not unconditional.
UK-based diplomats, looking at the stance adopted by China in the middle of the week, were expecting Beijing to join
Russia in voting against the US-sponsored motion, but in common with the United Arab Emirates and India, it abstained, leaving Russia isolated in deploying its veto power as a permanent member of the security council.
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Putin may have shown his respect for China by delaying the
invasion until after the Winter Olympics, but China was not consulted about the invasion. Chinese diplomats ridiculed forecasts of an invasion, and left many citizens in situ.
The
deeper partnership agreement signed with Russia on 4 February, the opening day of the Beijing Winter Olympics, was predicated on no invasion. China benefits from the existing world order, and finds the instability unsettling. The prospect of Russia
being cut out of the Swift payment system may benefit Chinese efforts to build an alternative, but the short-term disruption is worrying.
It was noticeable, for instance, on Friday that Russia offered high-level talks with Ukraine in Minsk, albeit on unacceptable terms, after a conversation between Putin and President Xi Jinping.
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Ukraine, it said, should be a bridge of communication between the east and west, not the frontline of confrontations between major countries. That, by implication, suggests China would favour Ukraine being a neutral state.
The risk for Russia is that if it descends into pariah status, it will be left as a supplicant rather than a future partner with China. Within 10 years,
Europe will have freed itself from dependence on Russian gas and oil – that has become a matter of urgent imperative in Rome and Berlin. Russia will be reliant on China as a customer.
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