Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

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why would a neighbour need x-raying? Sorry to not understand
<modsnip>

I "made a copy" from my own language (Polish) hehe
We say "x-rayed by Police" when somebody is intensely scrutinised by LE ;)

Bear with me - English is a foreign language for me, but I try to communicate as best as I can!!! <modsnip>
 
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Food for thought here : Apple Watches and Phones may not be the biggest danger to users. Apps such as Strava allowing 3rd party access to user location could really be the problem at hand.
The below quote is straight from Strava website :
If you link your Strava account to other social networks and share your activities, they will be viewable on such third-party platforms, including your location information. You should use caution when sharing information via third parties and you should carefully review the privacy practices of such third parties.”
 
Food for thought here : Apple Watches and Phones may not be the biggest danger to users. Apps such as Strava allowing 3rd party access to user location could really be the problem at hand.
The below quote is straight from Strava website :
If you link your Strava account to other social networks and share your activities, they will be viewable on such third-party platforms, including your location information. You should use caution when sharing information via third parties and you should carefully review the privacy practices of such third parties.”

Now all we need to know is ... did Sam use strava? And did she link it elsewhere?

Though the police would know that by now.

Any sign of her use of strava on her FB account? Seems the most logical place she would link it, if she had it and linked it.

imo
 
IMO I can’t fathom why on the one hand:

- it’s all too clean for a violent calculating predator with long wrap sheet to have pulled this off, as Sam would fight tooth and nail against a random attacker, the attacker would be sloppy, not plan it properly, and there would be too many clues.

While on the other hand :

- someone close to SM, has somehow planned and pulled off the perfect murder, on a lazy family Sunday morning, in between breakfast and brunch, with the kids in the house, and SM just gave up and didn’t fight back (like she would if it was predator) so there are no clues, and no evidence for police to conduct a dawn raid (yet).

Not singling you out Warshawski I appreciate the well laid out synopsis, it’s a good one and you may well be right. Others have also posted similar conclusions to quickly rule out random predator, which I just find conflicting IMO, so wanted to throw it open for debate.

From all I’ve read about SMs family and friends, the respect MM and the wider family are held in the community, the timeline we’re working with, the high regard the business is held in, vs the history of random violence in Ballarat, IMO I am much more inclined to believe a random predator in this case.
Perhaps I wasn’t clear in expressing my thoughts - however no where did I say I believed family were responsible.
 
I think now she has been driven away and killed not long after that, the vehicle has either been involved in a small collision with a bush, fence while getting away quickly from there, or it was damaged beforehand
There could be a witness, who was walking there at the time
I am not sure if the vehicle has been repaired, seats removed, tyres changed, modified in some way

My suspicions are that the Police are asking about information around damage to a vehicle not because they have cctv of a vehicle with damage entering the area, nor because they have any evidence of a damaged vehicle at all.

I think they are asking because they think there is a possibility Samantha may have been hit by a vehicle either intentionally or not and there would be clear signs of this in the form of damage.
 
Does anyone think this could be linked to the same person who attacked another female runner on those trails?


No
Samantha has disappeared, and the perpetrators have made sure they didn't leave any evidence around
Which has the hallmarks of a planned attack

And the police probably know who these people are and would be under surveillance

If the police had any concerns of a random, lunatic person in the bush,

they would be warning the public, there would be sketches of the offender and police would be saturating the bush to catch this person

The perpetrators who have carried this attack out on Sam, however, could have links to other crimes and might be known to police
 
Sissy is a very brave woman ... I was truly impressed by her contribution to that program Sunday night.
Was the attack on her ever properly investigated? My understanding is no.
I am angry if the attack on her was not properly investigated because my strong instinct is it could have been a practice run by a predator who wanted to test if he could knock out a female jogger. He did that to Sissy.
He then had a year to think about what he would like to do to a victim after knocking her out.
I am not clear on how the predator knew Sam would be there that day to take his actions on a female jogger further ... random, word of mouth, stalking ...
I reckon this guy has "associates", he is a crim and has a record, probably done some jail time, drugs and alcohol ... drinks alot and does drugs and some drug dealing, probably lives in some rundown place on the outskirts of Ballarat, maybe does odd jobs in the area ... maybe labouring and he has savage hunting dogs ... I feel very strongly that he has some dogs that he has made as nasty as himself. He has a bad heart, mind, soul, grimy and creepy ... his look, his smell, his energy but there are lots of sides to this guy ... good pretender and may have pretended to care and went searching.
It is only a matter of time before he trips up or someone else trips him up. Jail for him and his associates will be hell but not as hellish as they deserve.
I have no idea really whether Sam is hanging on. I pray for her all the time and I just keep hoping ... staying positive like she would be. If she passes or has passed then she will be with Ruby, her beloved dog. Ruby escaped her yard and was hit by a car and had to be euthanised not that long after Sam disappeared. Ruby was looking for her mum I reckon. If they are now together then that is a beautiful image.
This is obviously just my opinion but I have pretty good instincts and I want this predator to know that time is ticking. Karma awaits.
 
No
Samantha has disappeared, and the perpetrators have made sure they didn't leave any evidence around
Which has the hallmarks of a planned attack

And the police probably know who these people are and would be under surveillance

If the police had any concerns of a random, lunatic person in the bush,

they would be warning the public, there would be sketches of the offender and police would be saturating the bush to catch this person

The perpetrators who have carried this attack out on Sam, however, could have links to other crimes and might be known to police

and they touched on the two cases during the 'under investigation' (which I know wasn't vic police, but presumably vic police or LE legal team reviewed the show content) - I think the comments were something like "not seen to be linked at this stage but keeping an open mind in light of any new evidence" (i.e. no)
 
Interesting the police have said MM is not a suspect at this stage, even if he was a suspect, the police won't say due to his kids living with him and family.

But he could have some involvement in organising
I don't think the attack was for MM himself, but for Sam
I do believe there is a motive, but It's hard to pinpoint which one. Business / Divorce
I think she has been ambushed by more than one person with a gun and made to get into the vehicle
The only way she would have been kept alive is for ransom, and we haven't heard of that
I think now she has been driven away and killed not long after that, the vehicle has either been involved in a small collision with a bush, fence while getting away quickly from there, or it was damaged beforehand
There could be a witness, who was walking there at the time
I am not sure if the vehicle has been repaired, seats removed, tyres changed, modified in some way
But CCTV at the business would show if that vehicle was driven in or out of the business/ and if there were unusual activity in the business that day and throughout the night
Or it's in a large backyard shed waiting for it to be transported somewhere else
There has been no reported car fires either
CCTV would be checked if the vehicle was in the business, on Saturday, possibly in the evening,
Someone had to know what time she was running and what path she would be taking
 
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I am not clear on how the predator knew Sam would be there that day to take his actions on a female jogger further ... random, word of mouth, stalking ...


A predator may not have known Sam would be there that day. Sam may not have been an identified target.

A predator may have "known" that some morning runner/walker would be passing through, and was ready to attack whoever it was.

It may have been gender-specific, it may not. Although the likelihood of a female runner/walker being attacked are probably greater, if there was a sexual motivation for a male perpetrator and/or if they just wanted to viciously power trip over a woman.

imo

Ashkar, who specialises in profiling criminal offenders, told Hayes the absence of any trace being found of Samantha could point to her having been attacked by a "psychopathic predator … who would know that area, like the back of their hand". Link
 
Stats are stats. I lived in Dubbo for 8yrs. It has a rating of 8/100 and I can agree to it.
Just to clarify: my suggestion of Ballarat as the crime capital was intended to be humorous, in the context of a bedazzling number of unusual events in the last few weeks… perhaps I should have included a qualifier to make this clearer… no offence intended. Clearly Ballarat has an incredible community to have marshalled such a huge amount of support in the search for Samantha.
 
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Interesting the police have said MM is not a suspect at this stage, even if he was a suspect, the police won't say due to his kids living with him and family.

But he could have some involvement in organising
I don't think the attack was for MM himself, but for Sam
I do believe there is a motive, but It's hard to pinpoint which one. Business / Divorce
I think she has been ambushed by more than one person with a gun and made to get into the vehicle
The only way she would have been kept alive is for ransom, and we haven't heard of that
I think now she has been driven away and killed not long after that, the vehicle has either been involved in a small collision with a bush, fence while getting away quickly from there, or it was damaged beforehand
There could be a witness, who was walking there at the time
I am not sure if the vehicle has been repaired, seats removed, tyres changed, modified in some way
But CCTV at the business would show if that vehicle was driven in or out of the business/ and if there were unusual activity in the business that day and throughout the night
Or it's in a large backyard shed waiting for it to be transported somewhere else
There has been no reported car fires either

This may be unrelated but its barely a 30 minute drive south of Ballarat. Could perhaps be to incinerate evidence, phone, watch, airpods, clothes and or anything a perp may have been wearing or using at the time of disappearance away from the search areas. Maybe someone taking a car apart bit by bit or how effective that may be in destroying forensically gatherable (probably not a word but, as the kids say "tevs") traces. It doesn't seem to be the smartest choice but someone who is panicking, desperate or under intense pressure about following an order might feel they have no other option.
Or possibly as I recall from an earlier thread it could be a ruse to divert a large contingent of fire fighters and emergency services to this area while they incinerate a vehicle/evidence elsewhere.

Really hoping for closure for Sam's loved ones, especially her children.
 
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