Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #5

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do you know whether it is often the case that missing people are declared most likely dead when there is no body and seemingly no evidence at this relatively early stage in an investigation. There are many people missing for years with no body or evidence they are dead and they aren't necessarily declared most likely dead ...

Mark Hatt's reasoning is as stated ..... he has not declared Sam is deceased. He is doubtful that she is still alive.


"Unfortunately given the time and the fact we have found no trace of her, we do have severe concerns and are very doubtful that she is still alive," he said.

 
Mark Hatt's reasoning is as stated ..... he has not declared Sam is deceased. He is doubtful that she is still alive.


"Unfortunately given the time and the fact we have found no trace of her, we do have severe concerns and are very doubtful that she is still alive," he said.

This is shocking to me ... just cause she has been gone a month and they have no trace of her at all, they doubt she's still alive! Remind me never to go missing in Vic!
 
Does the latest info about this "metadata" mean that Police ...ummm...
have no clues about disappearance of Samantha?

Or is it the next, planned step of the investigation?
Hopefully it’s to cross the t’s and dot the i’s. I think most thought from Under Investigation that there was a light at the end of the tunnel, very sad if not
 

"Phone Twist In Search For Missing Mum Samantha Murphy:

Police To Try A New Tactic In Search.


Despite a massive search involving police, SES and numerous volunteers,
no trace of the 51-year-old has been found.

Police are to try a new tactic in the search for missing mother-of-three Samantha Murphy.

Detectives are now ready to trace mobile data from the Ballarat area,
with particular interest in phones ‘pinging’ from towers covering the area they believe Ms Murphy was in hours after her flight.

The phone records may help investigators identify people of interest and provide new leads as the search for Ms. Murphy continues for 30 days."


 
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Hopefully it’s to cross the t’s and dot the i’s. I think most thought from Under Investigation that there was a light at the end of the tunnel, very sad if not

In the case of CS, a shop owner had reported that TK bought children's nappies - when he had no child.

Then the tower dump that found that single ping from his phone confirmed that he was in the area of Cleo's disappearance when she vanished.

It could be that the police have some other clue of an unknown person's involvement and are seeking proof (evidence) that they were in the area when Sam disappeared.

As you say, it is possible that it is not just a fishing expedition. Although it may be. They are not going to tell us.

imo
 
I am still trying to get my head around that ONLY NOW police are going to look at mobile phone data to identify movements of other people in the area. You could have knocked me over with a feather! Like, wouldn't this be a pretty basic initial part of an investigation esp when you had declared the case suspicious and the missing person probably dead? Don't get me wrong ... I have huge respect for police and the tough job they do, even though they used to show beyond belief commitment and kick me out of the local park with my dogs during covid cause I was a teeny bit over my exercise time limit ... but really, this floors me completely!
 
Hopefully it’s to cross the t’s and dot the i’s. I think most thought from Under Investigation that there was a light at the end of the tunnel, very sad if not

They say it is a new tactic
(Link upthread by me)

So...
Ummm....

I'm not sure if we can be sure of it.
It sounds desperate.
It doesn't sound good IMO
 
I am still trying to get my head around that ONLY NOW police are going to look at mobile phone data to identify movements of other people in the area. You could have knocked me over with a feather! Like, wouldn't this be a pretty basic initial part of an investigation esp when you had declared the case suspicious and the missing person probably dead? Don't get me wrong ... I have huge respect for police and the tough job they do, even though they used to show beyond belief commitment and kick me out of the local park with my dogs during covid cause I was a teeny bit over my exercise time limit ... but really, this floors me completely!
As I understand it, the reason that they could not do this earlier is because Australia has some pretty strict privacy laws related to phone data.

Correct me if I am wrong.
 
They say it is a new tactic.
So...
Ummm....
I'm not sure if we can be sure of it.
It sounds desperate.
It doesn't sound good IMO
And they make a song and dance about the "new tactic" ...
 
I am still trying to get my head around that ONLY NOW police are going to look at mobile phone data to identify movements of other people in the area. You could have knocked me over with a feather!

There is/was a big hue and cry about metadata retention being a breach of privacy (arguments for and against are in the linked article). Therefore, some laws have been put in place.


Security agencies (there are 21 agencies that can gain access to the metadata) can be given access to the data when they can make a case that it is “reasonably necessary” to an investigation.
The data retention laws still require security agencies to obtain a warrant before accessing the actual content of messages or conversations.

 
In Australia, metadata from a tower dump can only be requested for a crime. Not for a missing person or other reason.

It involves multiple carriers downloading the metadata from the tower(s). The metadata will show the time, duration and destination of phone activity in that area ... usually for a period of one or two hours.

If the police have only gained evidence of a crime recently, in Sam's case, that is when they could request the metadata.


Thanks. I was about to ask about the legal aspect, because in the US it's usually quite difficult to get a judge to sign off on a warrant for a very broad search like that, with no specific information being sought. It sounds like Australia is similar.

I would speculate that this process takes some time, so they probably applied for the permission days or weeks ago, and are only just now getting permission to start?
 
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And they make a song and dance about the "new tactic" ...

It might mean the perp is completely random.
Somebody under the radar.
Even a tourist.

But,
as she was attacked while jogging alone in the park/forest early in the morning,
well, it makes horrible sense.

So many women were murdered in the same circumstances :(

These theories about business/family etc.
seem too elaborate IMO.

JMO
 
It is feeling very much like we are looking for a needle suspected to be in one of about a million haystacks….
If you accept as logic that some one or something interfered with SM at the time her apple watch stopped, there would be a limited # of other phone signals in close proximity to her at that time. Some of them would be explicable- others not so much. The main problems, IMO would be if whomever or whatever intercepted her, had no phone, or, as we were told before, some towers were not working so there were signals from greater distance all going to one tower.
 
This is shocking to me ... just cause she has been gone a month and they have no trace of her at all, they doubt she's still alive! Remind me never to go missing in Vic!
This is why some of us believe the health data shows evidence of Sam’s health declining post some sort of incident and hence the reason for this language.

Health data could show her pulse rate/ breathing spike then dramatically slow and because she hasn’t sought medical attention, that could be the reason for their language.

Or they could be basing it on statistics where people who go missing in suspicious circumstances aren’t found alive after 4 weeks ‍♂️
 
Thanks. I was about to ask about the legal aspect, because in the US it's usually quite difficult to get a judge to sign off on a warrant for a very broad search like that, with no specific information being sought. It sounds like Australia is similar.

I would speculate that this process takes some time, so they probably applied for the permission days or weeks ago, and are only just now getting permission to start?

I have been googling how long it takes to get authorisation for a tower dump, but am not coming up with any answers.

Other than the police (or whatever agency) must have a "reasonably necessary" case for wanting all of that metadata. And that reasonably necessary reason has to appear reasonably necessary to whoever signs off on the request.

I imagine a defence lawyer (should this case go to court) might try to get metadata evidence thrown out if they can show a judge that it wasn't reasonably necessary to request the metadata.

imo
 
Just saw an article in The Courier (Ballarat newspaper)

(Clean up Australia Day was held 3 March 2024
The Canadian Forest was attended by young and old for the clean up
Friends of Canadian Corridor secretary was involved
10,000 sites across the country were expected to pick up more than 300,000 plastic, metal, glass etc
No mention of Sam in article)

Hopefully no important evidence was found and thrown
 
I have been googling how long it takes to get authorisation for a tower dump, but am not coming up with any answers.

Other than the police (or whatever agency) must have a "reasonably necessary" case for wanting all of that metadata. And that reasonably necessary reason has to appear reasonably necessary to whoever signs off on the request.

I imagine a defence lawyer (should this case go to court) might try to get metadata evidence thrown out if they can show a judge that it wasn't reasonably necessary to request the metadata.

imo
I also wonder if LE or some agency can file some kind of request to preserve the data while they are trying to get an order to produce it.
 
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