Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #9

[HoneyBunOne]

Just a thought. Maybe the accused didn't do much planning at all. Maybe he just got lucky that SM has not been found yet? Or maybe not. I can't help but wonder how all the Intel has not led to finding Samantha.

And I imagine police resources will be stretched with the recent murder.

That's always been my thought, that he just got lucky. So much bushland and countryside around the immediate area, not to mention within a 20-30km radius. Who knows what his plans were that day and how much free time he had that he didn't have to account for. If he's off far away from the scene of the crime disposing of her he wouldn't necessarily care that a search was happening in Mt Clear. If he's guilty of course. MOO

 

[Dotta]

In cold cases he would say, is almost always in the original case file

I'm a big fan, lovely man

I would love to see another TV series as well

This quote:

"The perp is almost always in the original case file"

is very famous.

I read and heard it many times in my country from Police Officers talking about cold cases.

I guess this maxim is taught at Police Academies all over the world.

But who originally coined this phrase?

 

[iamshadow21]

This quote about

"The perp is always in the original case file"

is very famous.

I read and heard it many times in my country (Poland) from Police Officers talking about cold cases.

I guess this maxim is taught at Police Academies all over the word.

But who originally coined this phrase?

No idea, but it's not always correct.

Joseph DeAngelo wasn't.

There's a danger in absolutes. Without genetic genealogy and DNA, if they'd just stuck to folks in the original case file, they never would have identified him.

The maxim might work for many murders, where there is a connection between the victim and suspect, but it's kind of rubbish for stranger killings.

MOO

 

[Dotta]

No idea, but it's not always correct.

Joseph DeAngelo wasn't.

There's a danger in absolutes. Without genetic genealogy and DNA, if they'd just stuck to folks in the original case file, they never would have identified him.

The maxim might work for many murders, where there is a connection between the victim and suspect, but it's kind of rubbish for stranger killings.

MOO

That is why there is a word ALMOST

ETA
I missed this word
but added it later.

 

[BreakingNews]

That's always been my thought, that he just got lucky. So much bushland and countryside around the immediate area, not to mention within a 20-30km radius. Who knows what his plans were that day and how much free time he had that he didn't have to account for. If he's off far away from the scene of the crime disposing of her he wouldn't necessarily care that a search was happening in Mt Clear. If he's guilty of course. MOO

Would it be an hours drive to the cliffs of the Great Ocean Road? Are there any other high cliffs around Ballarat? Long time since I was at Ballarat East, but remembering it was rather flat, not a lot of high mountains. MOO.

 

[HoneyBunOne]

Would it be an hours drive to the cliffs of the Great Ocean Road? Are there any other high cliffs around Ballarat? Long time since I was at Ballarat East, but remembering it was rather flat, not a lot of high mountains. MOO.

Longer I'd say to the Great Ocean road, and there's always tourists around. Not sure about cliffs as such in the area. I'm still thinking she's buried or in water somewhere.

 

[BreakingNews]

Longer I'd say to the Great Ocean road, and there's always tourists around. Not sure about cliffs as such in the area. I'm still thinking she's buried or in water somewhere.

I have often thought of water also. Weighted down by something.

 

[Cliff Hardy]

I have often thought of water also. Weighted down by something.

There have been many instances of failure using that method. It even bought Roger Rogerson undone.

 

[HoneyBunOne]

Thanks for posting this Doc.
After watching the interview with MM, the tiny miniscule (like .0001%) bit of possibility I thought he was involved has now definitely gone. This poor man is genuinely devastated at the loss of his wife and I don't believe he'll give up his search until she's found and laid to rest by the family.

I have to agree. I'll be the first to admit that I was suspicious of him in the beginning. I didn't think he acted in a way I thought he "should" and his body language seemed at odds with his situation. Turns out I'm pretty cr@p at reading people. I think he's just a guy of a certain age, brought up in the country, in a time when men didn't show emotions. You just got on with things and were strong for those around you, which he appears to be doing.

Personally, I think it's time he allowed himself to grieve a bit more than it appears he is. Time to release all that tension, and emotions. He keeps saying he's staying strong for his kids, but I think they also need to see him express appropriate emotions. Of course, who knows what happens behind closed doors, but it appears he's kept it together long enough for the kids, it's time to deal with the emotions in a healthy way. I wish him well and hope that she is found and can be laid to rest. That will have to go some way towards healing.

MOO

 

[Minaka]

Turns out I'm pretty cr@p at reading people.

Don't be so harsh on yourself. The case isn't closed yet. Why would you think your reading of people is wrong? We won't know the full details until the verdict.

 

[BreakingNews]

I have to agree. I'll be the first to admit that I was suspicious of him in the beginning. I didn't think he acted in a way I thought he "should" and his body language seemed at odds with his situation. Turns out I'm pretty cr@p at reading people. I think he's just a guy of a certain age, brought up in the country, in a time when men didn't show emotions. You just got on with things and were strong for those around you, which he appears to be doing.

Personally, I think it's time he allowed himself to grieve a bit more than it appears he is. Time to release all that tension, and emotions. He keeps saying he's staying strong for his kids, but I think they also need to see him express appropriate emotions. Of course, who knows what happens behind closed doors, but it appears he's kept it together long enough for the kids, it's time to deal with the emotions in a healthy way. I wish him well and hope that she is found and can be laid to rest. That will have to go some way towards healing.

MOO

Even the police work from those closest first, then work out from there. Jill Mehar

 

[BreakingNews]

I have to agree. I'll be the first to admit that I was suspicious of him in the beginning. I didn't think he acted in a way I thought he "should" and his body language seemed at odds with his situation. Turns out I'm pretty cr@p at reading people. I think he's just a guy of a certain age, brought up in the country, in a time when men didn't show emotions. You just got on with things and were strong for those around you, which he appears to be doing.

Personally, I think it's time he allowed himself to grieve a bit more than it appears he is. Time to release all that tension, and emotions. He keeps saying he's staying strong for his kids, but I think they also need to see him express appropriate emotions. Of course, who knows what happens behind closed doors, but it appears he's kept it together long enough for the kids, it's time to deal with the emotions in a healthy way. I wish him well and hope that she is found and can be laid to rest. That will have to go some way towards healing.

MOO

Police always start with those closest and work out from there. In the Jill Meagher murder, her husband was initial investigated. He knew they had to do this and he cooperated like a saint. He acted how we expected him to react. But in SM case, we are talking about people who lived a long time in the country where in Australia most live with a stiff upper lip. Everyone reacts differently. Guilty or innocent.

 

[Nifty]

Just a thought. Maybe the accused didn't do much planning at all. Maybe he just got lucky that SM has not been found yet? Or maybe not. I can't help but wonder how all the Intel has not led to finding Samantha.

And I imagine police resources will be stretched with the recent murder.

Police always start with those closest and work out from there. In the Jill Meagher murder, her husband was initial investigated. He knew they had to do this and he cooperated like a saint. He acted how we expected him to react. But in SM case, we are talking about people who lived a long time in the country where in Australia most live with a stiff upper lip. Everyone reacts differently. Guilty or innocent.

Ron Iddles was involved in Jill Meagher Investigation

And the phone tapping in the beginning was important to eliminate the husband

Then connecting the murderer to Jill that time

 

[Dotta]

Re Police's certainty about an alleged deliberate murder and the accused allegedly acting alone...

It could be that the accused allegedly took pictures at the scene and sent them to someone.

Quick and fleeting Snapchat photo/s.

And that this someone allegedly informed Police.

Just another theory
and JMO.

 

[BreakingNews]

No idea, but it's not always correct.

Joseph DeAngelo wasn't.

There's a danger in absolutes. Without genetic genealogy and DNA, if they'd just stuck to folks in the original case file, they never would have identified him.

The maxim might work for many murders, where there is a connection between the victim and suspect, but it's kind of rubbish for stranger killings.

MOO

Dotta, the saying is from 'Australia's most respected Detective', Ron Iddles. For cold cases, he says "The answer is always in the files" He had a 99% success rate and investigated over 300 murder cases. Nifty and I were referring to this retired detective. He is brilliant. He has done a series for TV.

Ron Iddles - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[FromGermany1]

Last night I viewed "Medical Detektives" again. There was a case, when one man was said to have had a fight by night somewhere and had been in the mood, to have some more fights. With a friend in his car, he appeared at a location, where a woman stood outside. She was crying, because she wanted to get home to her 5 children, but couldn't get a ride. The driver offered to take her with him. - It ended with (attempted) rape, violent murder and assistance by the friend. (Betty Lee, New Mexico)

bbm= I can imagine, something like this (in the mood for a fight) may have been a reason for PS. It may turn out, that it wasn't his first murder either, just like in the case described.

 

[Fabre17]

Even though there has been devastation in another act of violence against women (so it seems), we are all still thinking of you Sam

 

[Dotta]

Dotta, the saying is from 'Australia's most respected Detective', Ron Iddles. For cold cases, he says "The answer is always in the files" He had a 99% success rate and investigated over 300 murder cases. Nifty and I were referring to this retired detective. He is brilliant. He has done a series for TV.

Ron Iddles - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

" 'I always say to investigators,
deal with the facts
and let the facts tell the story.

Don't have your theory and fit the facts around it'.

Almost always,
the answers are there to be found –
his belief is that the truth is lurking in the original case file.

'I've always said
there is someone in the community
who knows the answer to just about every unsolved homicide',
he says."

Respect Sir!

An old-school copper learns the new tricks of the true crime genre

amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[BreakingNews]

DBM

 

[NoSpoonFeeding]

Dotta, the saying is from 'Australia's most respected Detective', Ron Iddles. For cold cases, he says "The answer is always in the files" He had a 99% success rate and investigated over 300 murder cases. Nifty and I were referring to this retired detective. He is brilliant. He has done a series for TV.

Ron Iddles - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

This is a very misleading interpretation of what has been said about him. He had a 99% success rate of convictions when there was prosecution. He is not alone in that distinction. MOO