Discussion in 'Located Persons Discussion' started by FrostOwl, Nov 29, 2020.
Thank you very much Tortoise
I translate Vols et Dégradations as Theft and Damage/Vandalism. Yet your understanding of the English translation is sexual crimes. I'm curious to learn your source, please.
Hi. If you go to the actual website you will find "sexuelle" stats.
I find it confusing as I studied French years ago.
Hopefully the screenshot will link.
I looked at population stats for Bagneres de Luchon.
The most recent year stats were given was 2007.
There were 2100 + men and 2400 approx women residing in Luchon in 2007.
In 2020 cut that number by half.
Only 850 men. 850 women. See deduction below. *
In 2014 there were 329 cases of violent crime:
180 cases of "gratuitous violence"
32 cases of sexual violence
68 cases of violence threats
30 cases of "violations of dignity" (includes:
torture, rape, exploitation and slavery. Wikipedia )
19 cases of "villainous" violence (crapuleuse - google translate)
1. In 1 decade the population halved. Eg 1996-2007.
2. 13 years later one can assume that the trend continues?
Thus in 2020 there are only about 850 men and 850 women residing in Luchon!
329 violent crime cases in 2014 for a population total of about 1600* adults.
*assuming their decades-long trend of population halving every 10 years.
The Tour de France cyclists pass through there and have suffered aggression from the locals - news reports.
A town thats greatest income comes from tourism will strive to downplay any crime.
Add that into the mix.
I'm not saying there are hordes of nutcases there but I am saying the ratio of violent crime to population is extravagant.
ETA: edited population estimates for 2014-2020.
Chiffres délinquance Bagneres de Luchon (31110)
I subsequently edited my figures as my earlier stats were too low for the population reduction. I had calculated 1000 adults when it should be 1600 approximately. Fixed.
And added the extra 19 crapuleuse violence cases
Violent crime cases in the town below Pic de Sauvegarde where Esther was last seen.
A town called Bagneres de Luchon.
2014 stats on a population of approximately 1600 adults.
329 cases of violent crime.
Bagneres de Luchon is part of a region in France called Haute Garonne.
It's nigh impossible to find news reports of crime in Luchon or Haute Garonne in English but I found this TV report on Youtube.
It's quite a sinister clip.
A few seconds watching, despite the language barrier and it seems there is a big problem - enough to air a warning documentary.
Do we have confirmation that the lake at the spot where ED disappeared has been searched? On the short route between the Pic de Sauvegarde and the refuge there is a pool that looks big enough for a person to disappear in. I presume they searched it. Dan would have walked past it when he retraced her steps too.
Family of British hiker missing in Pyrenees fear she has been kidnapped | Daily Mail Online
I was taken aback by 2 of the victims' similar looks to Esther. Wish I understood more French, but you are correct, you can tell, regardless of language, that there is a predator in this area.
I would translate "Vols et Degradations" as "Theft and Damage". Are you confusing the words "vol" and "viol"? The latter means "rape" in French.
All three of the cases cited in this crime documentary were solved and the perpetrators convicted and are behind bars.
They also happened in Toulouse, which is not particularly close to where Esther went missing.
The cases in this program have all been solved and the perpetrators convicted and jailed.
The crimes were also committed in/around Toulouse, which is nowhere near where Esther went missing.
Okay, I found these stats too. They aren’t just for Bagneres-de Luchon, they are for the whole area, and concern a total population of 64,502.
Chiffres délinquance Bagneres de Luchon (31110)
I also respectfully suggest that crime statistics from an area across the border from where Esther went missing are a red herring/OT diversion.
This photo was uploaded to "Esther&Dan" facebook page on November 19, so it is obvious it's an older pic, not from the day she went missing and not snapped on Pico de Salvaguardia. It got published, because it shows Ester's whole outfit. I don't see much relevance in who snapped this pic and it could have been snapped by Esther herself (place the camera on the rock, set the timer on, go and pose, done).
There've been some troubles after bear reintroduction up there in Pyrenees, because these animals tended to treat flocks of sheep as a free buffet. The farmers were not amused, as you can imagine, so both French and Spanish wildlife services now monitor bears very close, using various techniques (and teams of folks with binoculars). So if they say there were no bears in the area, I believe them, especially that it was the end of November and almost all bears already hibernated. Any bear who isn't asleep at this time of the year is closely monitored, because that means it has some health problems (and an insomniac bear is in a nasty mood, so you want to keep it away from people).
I hope she's found safe and well, her family must be tormented with worry.
Have you read about this case @Pinkerton PI
I’ve now spent a couple of hours reading the French media reports (and social media commentary) and it seems to me that while the authorities on both the French and Spanish sides are doing their due diligence/keeping an open mind about possibilities other than an accident, the abduction/kidnapping suggestions aren’t really plausible.
It’s stated several times that the authorities don’t expect to find her alive, and implied - IMO - that she’s up in the mountains somewhere, they just didn’t spot her.
The impression I have is that the “she’s not there” (because they didn’t find her yet) theory comes mostly from her partner/husband and/or her family members.
I do hope that the chap who gave her a lift on the 19th is found/interviewed soon, if only to eliminate some of the wilder speculation I’ve seen (not here!). IMO again, he’s a red herring.
ETA: by “interviewed”, I mean by LE, not the media.
The link worked for me: Scott Swanson and Carolyn MacLean, case from 1988 (and there’s a 2017 brief update when Carolyn died).