Theories

Discussion in 'Nancy Cooper' started by SeriouslySearching, Jul 19, 2008.

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  1. SleuthyGal

    SleuthyGal Former Member

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    We DO KNOW something. They told us! She was murdered. They said it out loud and in writing and it was televised.

    We don't know HOW or WHEN or WITH WHAT but her death was NOT 'natural,' it wasn't an 'accident' nor a 'suicide' and it was able to be determined based on the autopsy.

    I don't know why you want to insist that it could be something else when it simply isn't. There are LOTS of things to speculate about if you're feeling so inclined, but the manner of death is not one of the things that will change. It was a homicide and it will stay a homicide.
     
  2. WSTarheel

    WSTarheel New Member

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    Most of the time it take LE a long time to declare homicide. I think NC was declared homicide as soon as they found the body. There MUST have been some pretty obvious evidence.
     
  3. SleuthyGal

    SleuthyGal Former Member

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    It was declared a homicide when the Medical Examiner:

    1. ID'd the body positively to be NC's and
    2. Completed the autopsy (which was done the next day) and determined the manner and cause of death.

    We of course only know the manner of death: homicide.

    If a death is due to a drug or poisoning situation then they have to wait until the toxicology results come back to determine what the substance was and then determine if it was self-inflicted or not and if self-inflicted if it was intentional (suicide) or accidental. (Recent example: Heath Ledger. They knew he took the drugs..i.e. self-inflicted, but they had to investigate whether it was intentional, i.e. suicide, or accidental. And the investigation led them to conclude, "accidental overdose.")
     
  4. dyrewolfe

    dyrewolfe New Member

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    This post reminds me of Dana Shorb. Stabbed 11 times and it took Sanford PD 3 months to declare it a homicide (and subsequently arrest the boyfriend).
     
  5. FullDisclosure

    FullDisclosure New Member

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    I think so, too, Tarheel.
     
  6. raisincharlie

    raisincharlie Racing Doesn't Lie

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    That was a travesty. I read the articles earlier when the boyfriend was arrested - :banghead::banghead::banghead:
     
  7. ember

    ember ~*~ Tree hugging dirt worshipper ~*~

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    hmmm, isn't this the Theories thread? Or am I on the wrong one? :confused:
    That's why I'm speculating and yes, I am so inclined.
    Don't get snippy with me, newbie. That's not how it works.
    I'm one of the nicest posters around but I don't do attitude well :)
    I have a right to my opinion as well.

    This entire case ( and most of the unsolved crimes on this site for that matter) is open for speculation at this point unless someone is privy to the facts.

    btw, they made that statement in haste at the very beginning and have never said another word about it...so I just wanted to know if that was still their theory and how you know what the autopsy said. Did they release some information after the autopsy was done that said it was def. murder? If so, I hadn't heard that...and I just wanted to know. Geesh. How do we know? That's all I'm asking. Link?
     
  8. SleuthyGal

    SleuthyGal Former Member

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    How long is a "long time?"

    I think ME's are usually able to determine manner of death fairly quickly, most of the time. It takes longer in the case of drugs and/or poison and in some cases if the body is so decomposed they might never know the cause (though they can say the manner was due to 'homicide.'). I think it takes, on average, about 4 - 6 weeks for a tox screen to be completed.

    So in NC's case the M.E. was able to identify manner of death at the time of the autopsy. So we know it wasn't drugs (or at least that wasn't a primary factor if there were drugs in her system). So it could be something like: strangulation, asphyxiation, gunshot, stabbing, blunt force trauma, etc, etc.
     
  9. SleuthyGal

    SleuthyGal Former Member

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    I'm simply stating facts that are known in the case. You said "we don't know anything" and I was letting you know that yes, we do know one thing for sure: manner of death.

    There is a dedicated media thread at the top in which you can quickly peruse and see that this was declared a homicide.

    There is a LOT we don't know. Manner of death isn't one of them, as the day they (CPD) announced that the body had been positively ID'd as Nancy, they also classified the death as a Homicide.

    This was televised on or around July 17 and there are media links to various articles in the media thread.


     
  10. boxy

    boxy New Member

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  11. jumpstreet

    jumpstreet New Member

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    In the spirit of 'covering all the bases' while trying to ensure I don't have the blinders on, here's a couple of "theory categories" to float (along with some associated points that come to mind for each)

    Acknowledgment: Some get a bit 'far fetched' as they go, but just trying to think 'outside the box'. In any case, can any of these be categorically eliminated, based on known facts?

    (A) BC is the culprit (directly, or indirectly via "contract").
    - LE is searching his workplace
    - Conditions of custody seem one-sided (imply plaintiff's have a favorable "position")
    - Lots of CE/insinuation from various sources (including NC family)
    - Motive/opportunity was there
    Wrinkle: oldest daughter reportedly saw NC leave to go jogging Saturday AM (If true, this one seems a big wrinkle)

    (B) Culprit is someone besides BC, yet who knew and targeted NC.
    - Implies NC perhaps went to meet someone else (relations) instead of jogging. Culprit could be that someone else (or jealous wife/spouse of that someone)
    - NC would need to keep any outside relationship particularly secret to protect the custody proceedings, settlement, etc.
    - If culprit is (scorned) female, may explain why the body was found not far from the road (strength to move)
    - CE: Rumor seems to keep surfacing through various local word of mouth channels
    Wrinkles: Presumably, one of her friends would have known about the potential for a meeting with someone else and reported this. NC would have had arrangements to be picked up by the "someone else" pretty close to home (so as to have not been seen by anyone that morning)

    (C) Random crime.
    - Culprit is believed someone else other than BC (perhaps BC is helping/working with the authorities to "appearing" to be the one they are after (so as to throw off the real cuplrit))
    - Explains various behaviors from BC
    Wrinkles: Would be inconsistent with information in the NC's friends affidavits. Not what LE has stated (thus far). Search warrant for workplace would seem a stretch. No one came forward during the search to indicate they saw NC running that morning.

    (D): She's still alive and now hidden under "Witness Protection" or some such. :)
    - Thanks to the family connections with LE and social services, it's all a master ploy, involving local & state LE, ME, friends, and others to get her safely back to Canada somehow with the kids, and leaving behind the fear of having to look over her shoulder for a raged husband killer
    Wrinkles: Would mean leaving the proceeds from that pending divorce settlement on the table

    ----

    Sure, some of the above may be viewed as "more likely than others" (based on current knowns), but I'm not sure any can be categorically eliminated (based on current knowns), since so much solid remains unknown.

    (A) seems to be the frontrunner, and (D) the longest shot, with the other 2 perhaps somewhere in between.

    If you had to guess, what percentage chance to you think each of these might have (based on current knowns and assumptions)?
    Can any of the above be categorically eliminated at this point (ie 0% chance)?
    Are there other major categories or points missing?
     
  12. news247

    news247 New Member

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    http://www.wral.com/asset/news/local/2008/08/06/3338930/medicalexaminermotiontoquash.pdf

    ME states in this affidavit, that the autopsy is not completed, so no manner and TOD yet stated, by ME, right?

    Although LE did state it was a homicide, so clearly, something was evident to them (LE) without waiting for the ME report. Wish we knew what it is.
     
  13. SleuthyGal

    SleuthyGal Former Member

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    Autopsy is considered officially 'completed' (for legal purposes) when the written report is done and filed, but the M.E. would have verbally said what they believed the manner and COD to be to the lead detectives working the case. They probably would estimate TOD verbally. In some jurisdictions (I don't know if this area is one of them or not) there will often be one or more detectives at the autopsy, watching, in the case of homicide or obviously suspicious death. This was the case during the autopsies of Nicole Brown and Ron Goldman, for instance. This info was likely told to NC's parents, again informally.

    When my brother was found dead in his bed there was an autopsy done. The death cert and report took several weeks to be completed and notarized, but the coroner had called my parents right when they completed the physical part of the autopsy to let them know it was a 'natural death' (manner), a heart attack (cause), and they estimated how long he had been dead (it had been about 48 hrs). The autopsy was done the day after he was found, which is generally how it happens in most jurisdictions. His death occurred in PA. so that's how it was done there.
     
  14. boxy

    boxy New Member

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    Nice summary, which I've trimmed. Here's my estimate:
    A: Brad did it: 50%
    B: Person known to Nancy other than Brad: 20%
    C: Random crime: 30%
    D: Witness protection: 0%

    With each passing day, A is declining and C (and perhaps B) is increasing. When the evidence known to police is released, I think this will shift even further toward B+C (options B and C, not Brad Cooper).
     
  15. boxy

    boxy New Member

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    As mentioned by SleuthyGal, the ME said the REPORT wasn't finished. The autopsy is long finished and a preliminary cause of death is certainly known. They might be awaiting toxicology reports or they just might be waiting on the transcription service to complete the report. The AG's motion on behalf of the ME to quash the subpoena is dated July 25, nearly two weeks ago and on the day the initial custody hearing was scheduled (the subpoena had been served the day prior). By the time the motion is heard (at the October custody hearing?), the report will almost certainly be finished, which will remove that as an excuse not to produce it. The report may very well be released to the public by that time, so this is likely moot.
     
  16. SleuthyGal

    SleuthyGal Former Member

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    Really? Based on what info? When CPD said this was not a 'random crime,' did you believe they were just posturing for the sake of the cameras? I thought they were being honest about that. And I took that to mean that based on what they could determine, Nancy knew her killer.

    So it would either be 'A' or 'B.' And based on what I've learned so far I would put A at 90% and B at 10%, with C at 0% and D at 0%.
     
  17. boxy

    boxy New Member

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    Based on my theory that the time to arrest/indictment is inversely related to the initial strength of suspicion. Per this theory, those who are strongly suspected initially who are not indicted relatively rapidly end up being innocent. Two anecdotes: (1) Gary Condit in the Chandra Levy murder and (2) Parents of JonBenét Ramsey. Wonder if anyone has done a study along these lines.

    Belief is not relevant. Just the facts, ma'am. So far, no facts known to the public to interpret the "not a random crime" statement as implicating Brad Cooper. Who knows what the police meant by that statement? They certainly have not expounded.

    As indicated, I still have odds on Brad, but if no action in a couple months, he'll definitely be going down in my line.
     
  18. jumpstreet

    jumpstreet New Member

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    Thanks Boxy - good response (and also good explanation on the time to arrest/indictment being inversely related to the initial strength of suspicion - makes sense).

    FWIW, I'm probably hovering around:
    A: BC: 65%
    B: Person known to NC other than BC: 25%
    C: Random crime: 9%
    D: Witness protection: <1%
     
  19. maconrich

    maconrich Member

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    A: Brad did it: 98%
    B: Person known to Nancy other than Brad: 2%
    C: Random crime: 0%
    D: Witness protection: 0%

    Looking at the recent military related murders in NC, I'm thinking right now that the same kind of timeline (for an arrest) can be expected. Well, probably a bit longer since BC/NC weren't military and didn't have the routines that the others could have been expected to follow. I would probably put less on A if there was an A plus someone else option, but at this point (for me) things point to BC.

    modified due to being way too blonde! :bang: Obviously you DID have A worded to have someone else involved; so that pushed up my A% and knocked down the B.
     
  20. SleuthyGal

    SleuthyGal Former Member

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    Since there is no statute of limitations on being charged for murder AND knowing that the state gets only one shot at trying to convict a perp, I don't think that lack of an immediate arrest means that one will never occur, though I guess I do agree that the chances of it goes down, statistically over time.

    The things is, there's always some new scientific/forensic tool being developed that didn't exist in years past. So it's possible, perhaps even probable, that some new technology will be available in 5 years that isn't today.

    And the investigation is still 'early' in the NC case...they don't have DNA results back yet. Probably don't have results from the stuff they confiscated in the SWs. Now, if in 6 months there's nothing, then my confidence will start to wane.

    For now I'll just wait 'n see.
     
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