AMBER ALERT TN - Autistic teen Sebastian Wayne Drake Rogers, 15, missing in Hendersonville - Feb 27, 2024 #3

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Moo..SR was not moved in the mother's car. FBI, TBI, and SCSD would have immediately executed search warrants for all electronic, tracking and dash cam forensics. LE would have immediately focused the search efforts on any area the vehicle may have stopped. I'm sure LE has detailed timeline and tracking for the mother's vehicle. Are they sharing it with the public or the parents? NOPE it's part of an open investigation.

I base this, on how quickly electronic forensics were obtained and the extensive detail in the Butler/Kelly and M Soto cases. They had detailed information within the first few days, according to search warrants and court documents that have been released. Arrest were made quickly.

Moo...SR left the house, I think thru a window, even though the parents believe he would not step on to the shrubs. He may have had help, someone he met on the Internet, who encouraged him. He may have exited through a door by himself. Even 15 yo autistic adolescents, do things parents can't imagine, when they're determined.

All my opinion
Even though Sebastian is a minor and that's no small thing, in the VB/JK case, there was grave evidence at the scene, no question of foul play. Fast action by law enforcement and a band of suspects who left a glaring trail of evidence.

This has been a much quieter investigation. Trickier to obtain warrants in the absence of evidence of foul play, but the longer Sebastian remains missing, the greater the likelihood IMO that foul play is indeed indicated.

Still early in the investigation. Telematics take time. BERLA reports, CCTV....

IF LE has POIs, there's no reason to name/out them now. Better to work the case, gather all the Intel that they can so that when arrests are made (plural or singular), the DA is at the gate to prosecute and convict. Once an arrest is made in a case, the arrested person's right to a speedy trial kicks in.

IMO LE is continuing to investigate Sebastian's disappearance (but less 'boots on ground', more 'analysis and synthesis".

3 months, 6 months, 9 months, these are the markers of a methodical investigation.

 JMO
 
"I don't sense a state of urgency from them; it's not their kid, it's mine. You know, this is a child of Sumner County," Seth Rogers said. "I tell people when you see something, say something, and then they turn around and they tell me that they see something and they never get a response."

"Somebody doesn't want me to find my son," the father said on Nancy Grace's "Crime Stories" podcast. "There's things that have been coming off of the internet that I need to stop searching for him."
 
This article has a link to a time line. There is another from the same time frame from Nick on channel 5. On March 4 there was an update from LE saying they are scaling back the boots on the ground search to transition to an investigation. They said at the time even though you won’t see us out searching we’re still working to find Sebastian.

The landfill search was 1.5 days, around 3/6 or 3/7. They did have a lot of searches go on by volunteers thanks to the Riley search ending right at this time. They had Equasearch, Tn National Guard, TBI, FBI, they also left the EMA command post up in case calls came in they were prepared to search.

The retention pond did have foot prints near it but IIRC none leading out of it.

The front of their house has plants & mulch under the windows. That would have definitely left foot prints & some damage to the plants had someone gone in or out through a front window. There is also a fence around their backyard.
Someone said that the mulch looked like it had been changed out. Unconfirmed.
 
Sometimes, when LE is candid with family, family shares that information with the media and it jeopardizes the information. It is always best IMO when POIs don't know what LE knows and sometimes that means that nonPOI family doesn't get to know either.

It is best for LE if POIs make mistakes, double back, relax....

It is hard for me to be patient, I can't begin to imagine what it would be like to be family, boxed out. Painfully slow process. Arrests, if warranted, can be months, years out. Trials, many years out. Justice rolls slowly.

This is still very early.

I suspect LE's statements, few though they are, are IMO crafted toward person(s) of interest. We know nothing, no suspects, no crime, no flashlights in the night....

I suspect they know what they're doing.

JMO
If they don't suspect foul play and there are no POIs, why would they review vehicle gps data? Have they secured a warrant to do that? TIA
 
If they don't suspect foul play and there are no POIs, why would they review vehicle gps data? Have they secured a warrant to do that? TIA
I think we know very little. Missing minor with special needs (diagnosis + without his medication) which, I'd think, would help with securing warrants. Every warrant requires a show of probable cause. A judge decides... would a judge find a warrant to obtain GPS data on, say, the family car, meets the threshold? I think it's always balanced against a citizen's (the car owner's) rights -- to privacy.

That being said, I suspect there's been a HUGE digital investigation going on behind the scenes.

Just because LE "says" they don't suspect foul play doesn't necessarily "mean" they don't. I've seen missing persons cases called missing persons cases (as in, no sign of foul play) right up until *bam* someone is arrested.

JMO
 

SUMNER COUNTY, Tenn. (WKRN) — Ninety-one days, or nearly 2,200 hours, have passed since 15-year-old Sebastian Rogers was reported missing from his family’s home on Feb. 26 before an AMBER Alert was later released.

*****
He explained that he has kept Sebastian enrolled at Beech High School since February and will re-enroll him in the fall, hoping to have his son back by then.

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As families all over the country spend time together at the park or on the lake this Memorial Day, Seth continues searching for his son by mapping out possible search routes.

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Rogers said he would search the area for Sebastian with a close group of people this week.

Seth told News 2 that he will not allow his son’s case to become a cold case as the search continues.

*****
 
Trickier to obtain warrants in the absence of evidence of foul play, but the longer Sebastian remains missing, the greater the likelihood IMO that foul play is indeed indicated.

I understand you wrote IMO, but is that really the case, I wonder? I’m not familiar with the adage that the length of time missing people stay missing has some special bearing on, say, actual manner of disappearance. Other circumstances beyond the mere passage of time surely must be taken into account when concluding a crime has taken place, and the passage of time before a missing person is located (if ever) has its own determining factors, like proximity to two great concealers of corpses: water and wilderness, whether death is natural or unnatural.

Certainly the likelihood of being dead positively corresponds to length of time spent missing, anyway, particularly when it comes to vulnerable children. Of course, there are other foul play possibilities besides murder, I suppose.

Again, it is vanishingly rare for a young person to be missing this long to be alive no matter if the initial disappearance was voluntary, otherwise, or somewhere in between, unless they have disappeared with another known party, usually an adult relative. Children on their own also fare worse, more quickly, than adults who facilitate their own disappearance in some fashion. I struggle to imagine how Sebastien might be alive even absent foul play, and I don’t think even Seth has conceded such a thing (alive but not a victim of something) possible. All odds are equal and equally bad.

If they don't suspect foul play and there are no POIs, why would they review vehicle gps data?

Because you can’t ring, months later, an unrung bell? Wouldn’t it be malpractice by authorities to not try to rule out/in the likely possibilities using bogstandard investigative tools? It’s easier to get a car to talk than a potentially guilty human, no? And what better way to corroborate a cooperative human’s claims—citing, say, extended travel in their own personal vehicle at the relevant times—than requesting that vehicle’s data.

What happens if Sebastien’s remains are later found in a place that can’t be connected to the most viable candidates for his disappearance (family, family friends, his own friends) and appear to have been intentionally concealed/disposed of by a third party, with a manner of death indicating homicide or undetermined, but under conditions that have destroyed potentially vital physical evidence linking a perpetrator to the crime? Someone took him there, is the obvious theory. GPS could form the link, but why not try to capture that data now rather than later? Successfully applying for a warrant to access this information is usually easier than indefinitely seizing a car, I believe, if the owner is not already in custody on a warrant that requires more rigorous cause.
 
It appears he was coming from a home that was strict. I wonder what Sebastian did on those nights he was alone while SR worked? I assume they interviewed his neighbors to see if anyone saw him out and about? Did he take his phone with him from his home? Do they still have that phone in custody? He had to have some way to call 911 if there was an emergency. SR mom lives n another state. If she was checking on him she had to have a way to reach him. What would a 15 year old unsupervised at night do? I doubt he was just sitting there reading books. It sounds like he was a night owl. Was he left with the PS for entertainment? If so, who was he communicating with? If someone from SP area wanted to lure him out what better was than to do it from his moms home? The focus would remain on her and it does so if someone has him they are probably feeling pretty safe. jmo
 
Apologies, I’m from uk so not sure how things work in the USA — are the police even searching for Sebastian at all? As in physical searches around the home, etc.?
 
Apologies, I’m from uk so not sure how things work in the USA — are the police even searching for Sebastian at all? As in physical searches around the home, etc.?
The police actively searched for about a week, including a landfill. They gave one of their few updates saying they were switching to an investigation but they would still be following any leads. This is something Seth Roger’s complains isn’t being done, he claims people have told him they have called LE but they don’t receive a call back. A searcher with a YT channel called LE after finding a pair of pants like the ones Sebastian was wearing when he left home, the officer who showed up refused to walk through the water to retrieve them. The YT called his supervisor and sat there waiting until the Super arrived & collected the pants. They were found not to belong to Sebastian.

A few weeks ago LE did a re-search of the areas they had already covered, afterwards saying again nothing was found.
 
It appears he was coming from a home that was strict. I wonder what Sebastian did on those nights he was alone while SR worked? I assume they interviewed his neighbors to see if anyone saw him out and about? Did he take his phone with him from his home? Do they still have that phone in custody? He had to have some way to call 911 if there was an emergency. SR mom lives n another state. If she was checking on him she had to have a way to reach him. What would a 15 year old unsupervised at night do? I doubt he was just sitting there reading books. It sounds like he was a night owl. Was he left with the PS for entertainment? If so, who was he communicating with? If someone from SP area wanted to lure him out what better was than to do it from his moms home? The focus would remain on her and it does so if someone has him they are probably feeling pretty safe. jmo
IIRC Seth worked 12 hour shifts. I don’t recall hearing Sebastian was left alone while Seth worked. In an early interview Seth described his life as work to fund the time he spent with Sebastian. The weekend Sebastian disappeared was supposed to be spent with Seth. I assumed he stayed with KP because Seth worked, no reason that I recall was given for the change.

He did carry his Iphone to Seth’s, he would FaceTime with FP.

I have wondered what they planned to do when Sebastian moved in with Seth. 12 hours plus drive time & sleep is too many hours unsupervised for most 15 year olds!
 

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