Found Safe TN - Mary Catherine Elizabeth Thomas, 15, Maury County, 13 March 2017 #4

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steelman

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If he took her over into Mexico, he's a lot dumber than I give him credit for. Existing in Mexico is not a pleasant thing unless you are staying at an American-based tourist resort. And if you are, $4500 bucks is going to last about 2 weeks.....MAX. Maybe 3 if you limit your Pena-Colada intake. Once you get 20 miles south of the border and further, running across people that can speak English gets harder and harder to find. A chubby white guy with a 15 year old girl in tow would stick out like a sore thumb in about 95% of the country. The two of them would be highly noticeable because they would be so out of place. If they chose to stay in an area where lots of American tourist congregate, the chance of them being recognized by someone who has seen the Amber Alert is through the roof. Once he got into Mexico, he would literally be stuck, because there would be no way for him to get back out unless he pulled out his drivers license and revealed his identity to the border patrol agents as well as ET's.
 

steelman

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Where is our map person when we need her??? I think they're closer to home hiding out somewhere. Cabin in the woods? Tent? Hiding in plain sight? Remember he's overweight and 50, not going to be able to be the mountain man he may have pretended to be. He also doesn't have normal boundaries, so I wouldn't be surprised to find him in someone's camp that he knows.

(Checking pants)

Here's a map I made up yesterday......zoomable. It ain't fancy, but it's functional.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1IlyfNwjXHK0Obf9lZ5jIJ561is8&usp=sharing
 

Inthedetails

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If he took her over into Mexico, he's a lot dumber than I give him credit for. Existing in Mexico is not a pleasant thing unless you are staying at an American-based tourist resort. And if you are, $4500 bucks is going to last about 2 weeks.....MAX. Maybe 3 if you limit your Pena-Colada intake. Once you get 20 miles south of the border and further, running across people that can speak English gets harder and harder to find. A chubby white guy with a 15 year old girl in tow would stick out like a sore thumb in about 95% of the country. The two of them would be highly noticeable because they would be so out of place. If they chose to stay in an area where lots of American tourist congregate, the chance of them being recognized by someone who has seen the Amber Alert is through the roof. Once he got into Mexico, he would literally be stuck, because there would be no way for him to get back out unless he pulled out his drivers license and revealed his identity to the border patrol agents as well as ET's.

I'd like to concentrate within US too. I'm looking at states where it's warm at night for outdoor sleeping.

I'm keeping Mexico and Central American on the table, but I think staying in the States is more likely. We have a big country, though...could be just about anywhere by now - though I'm thinking south more than north.

jmo
 
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It's said that TD helped after Hurricane Katrina. If that is factual, he would possible be comfortable in Louisiana. Maybe has connections there willing to help him.
 

white rabbit

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totally agree steelman. and though I don't think he's THAT stupid, I also don't give him mastermind planning capabilities with some pre-stocked hideout at the ready...
 
D

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If he took her over into Mexico, he's a lot dumber than I give him credit for. Existing in Mexico is not a pleasant thing unless you are staying at an American-based tourist resort. And if you are, $4500 bucks is going to last about 2 weeks.....MAX. Maybe 3 if you limit your Pena-Colada intake. Once you get 20 miles south of the border and further, running across people that can speak English gets harder and harder to find. A chubby white guy with a 15 year old girl in tow would stick out like a sore thumb in about 95% of the country. The two of them would be highly noticeable because they would be so out of place. If they chose to stay in an area where lots of American tourist congregate, the chance of them being recognized by someone who has seen the Amber Alert is through the roof. Once he got into Mexico, he would literally be stuck, because there would be no way for him to get back out unless he pulled out his drivers license and revealed his identity to the border patrol agents as well as ET's.

I've wondered about this too. He could try to lay low there for a while and then move on somewhere else. I'll be interested in seeing if they turn up any evidence that they could have fake IDs or be using other people's passports. Not saying he's for sure this cunning or forward thinking. But if he taught forensics, had studied off the grid living etc, and had a month to think through this, I don't rule it out.

I'd love to hear anyone speak to this: Can anyone tie him to one "remote" part of the U.S. over another? Do we have any record of him frequenting state parks or going to a hunting cabin in a specific part of the world--possibly even in his childhood rather than recently?
 

Reba

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I don't know where they are..........but wherever it is, the two of them are embedded like ticks. About the only suggestion I would have at this point is for LE to dig into TC's background history, and by history I don't mean the last 5 years, I mean the last 30 years, and check out any and all places he may have stayed with a church group or a student group. I'm sure through the years he has visited many youth camps, scout camps, and youth oriented resorts. Due to the schools being in session right now, many of these camps may be closed and don't plan on opening until closer to summer. A few of them may have caretakers and maintenance people keeping the grounds up, but a lot of them probably don't. Some places may leave the power on all year round, and other places may just turn it off at the main power box during the off season. Many of these youth camps have pretty sturdy cabins and are pretty well furnished with all the necessities, just bring your groceries.

For some reason, I think he ran off to a place he is familiar with or has fond memories of, and thus he thinks ET will like it as well. LE should research back all the way to when TC was a teenager and young adult himself. I don't have any idea what his history is in regards to different places he's lived or where he grew up as a kid. I don't have access to that information, but other people do. The complete lack of sightings leads me to believe they are parked in one spot, not getting out in public (unless TC is by himself), and totally hidden from casual observers. That in itself could be accomplished by hiding 1/2 mile off the road in a wooded area. Many of these resorts and campsites are a lot further off the road than that.

At the very least, LE could compile a list of places he's visited through the years and at least do a general drive-thru to check it out. If the place is located on a dirt road, that might get a little tricky, because TC will be able to hear them coming long before they get to the main complex of cabins. If he's in such a place, he may very well have his SUV camouflaged with brush and tree branches so it is almost impossible to see, whether it be from ground level or from the air. He could also have it hidden in a barn or an outbuilding.

Destiny Church is of the Assembly of God denomination, which is the type of church I attend. There is an A/G campground about an hour from Columbia in Goodlettsville, TN. It got me thinking that maybe ET may have attended that camp (possibly with my kids), or TC could have gone with the church's youth group as a camp counselor one year. I wonder if they have checked that campground. There are cabins, dorms, a full kitchen, medical building, everything anyone would need to disappear for a little while. Youth and Kids Camps don't start until June.

Edited to add . . . I realized that TC and I have mutual friends on FB, one of which is the District Youth Director for the Assemblies of God in TN.
 

MsMtOlympus

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They both wear glasses and has there been any mention of contacts or other styles of glasses they both may have, and if
they do have different styled glasses/backup glasses, are they missing?

Great suggestion! I did notice that TC follows Zenni Optical on Twitter. On Zenni, you can buy glasses (frames + lenses) for $6.95 if you bypass all the upsell options. I know this because when I need a cheap backup pair I use Zenni. My last pair was $11.00 total, including shipping. You do need to order weeks in advance because the glasses are made in China but we know that TC had about a month to plan. You could conceivably get 10 pairs of glasses for not much more than $100 so I wouldn't rule out that he stocked up on various styles of glasses for both himself and ET.

EDIT: I do not work for Zenni. :D
 
D

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It's said that TD helped after Hurricane Katrina. If that is factual, he would possible be comfortable in Louisiana. Maybe has connections there willing to help him.

Thanks! I think this is a good line of thinking too. This route would also take them through Decatur.

LA.png
 

Inthedetails

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totally agree steelman. and though I don't think he's THAT stupid, I also don't give him mastermind planning capabilities with some pre-stocked hideout at the ready...

He had a month to plan - I do think he was capable of stockpiling supplies. In fact, it's my hunch that is exactly what he did.

jmo
 
D

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Great suggestion! I did notice that TC follows Zenni Optical on Twitter. On Zenni, you can buy glasses (frames + lenses) for $6.95 if you bypass all the upsell options. I know this because when I need a cheap backup pair I use Zenni. My last pair was $11.00 total, including shipping. You do need to order weeks in advance because the glasses are made in China but we know that TC had about a month to plan. You could conceivably get 10 pairs of glasses for not much more than $100 so I wouldn't rule out that he stocked up on various styles of glasses for both himself and ET.

Good find. I suppose if police wanted to, they could subpoena his order history and see which glasses he's purchased...if any.
 

Mom24

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If they pinged in Decatur, they could be at the Wheeler Nat'l Wildlife Refuge. Good place to live off the grid.
 

OtisC

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As I have stated earlier, I have always thought they are headed out of the country.

And I think I see some evidence that supports that theory.

They drove the Rouge instead of the Jeep. She considered herself to be pledged to him (wife on IG). He researched marriage with young girls. I think she has been a willing participant for most, if not all, of this time.

They did linger in the area, it seems, for the first day until the AA went out. At that point, you have to get out of the warned area.

It just makes sense that if you need to leave the warned area and get out of the country, you go to Texas. At the time, Texas was not warned (the focus was on FL and the Gulf), it has plenty of rural locations where populations are sparse, it is a "staging" or "holding" place before making the dive into Mexico. If needed, you can "sell" the idea of Mexican beaches as their dream location together.

I think Mexico will be too risky for them. Too many road checkpoints, too close to the US, too many drug activities. What are the options?

To me the best options are Guatemala and Nicaragua. Not too many Americans but enough to not be out of place. Can use the missionary "cover" if needed. Inexpensive living. Remote and rural in many areas.

Are they going there and will they make it? There are many obstacles in the way, including keeping the fantasy alive during non-fantasy-like conditions. Adrenalin will wear down at some point. When the manic time erodes, she will have a decision to make. If they are in Mexico or further south, her choices will be very limited.

The above is my opinion only.
 

Inthedetails

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As I have stated earlier, I have always thought they are headed out of the country.

And I think I see some evidence that supports that theory.

They drove the Rouge instead of the Jeep. She considered herself to be pledged to him (wife on IG). He researched marriage with young girls. I think she has been a willing participant for most, if not all, of this time.

They did linger in the area, it seems, for the first day until the AA went out. At that point, you have to get out of the warned area.

It just makes sense that if you need to leave the warned area and get out of the country, you go to Texas. At the time, Texas was not warned (the focus was on FL and the Gulf), it has plenty of rural locations where populations are sparse, it is a "staging" or "holding" place before making the dive into Mexico. If needed, you can "sell" the idea of Mexican beaches as their dream location together.

I think Mexico will be too risky for them. Too many road checkpoints, too close to the US, too many drug activities. What are the options?

To me the best options are Guatemala and Nicaragua. Not too many Americans but enough to not be out of place. Can use the missionary "cover" if needed. Inexpensive living. Remote and rural in many areas.

Are they going there and will they make it? There are many obstacles in the way, including keeping the fantasy alive during non-fantasy-like conditions. Adrenalin will wear down at some point. When the manic time erodes, she will have a decision to make. If they are in Mexico or further south, her choices will be very limited.

The above is my opinion only.

Central America isn't on top of my list, but it is on my list. The question, though, is how would they get there?

jmo
 

Considering

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Ok, here's another thing, his drivers license which is included in the docs released by the school indicate he has a Class D license with an F endorsement.

Here's what that means in Tennessee: https://www.tn.gov/safety/article/classf

I wonder if Tad has any experiences driving professionally that would lead him to know routes or have access to specialized vehicles.

I can see TC driving a church bus. It would give him another opportunity to be around teens.
 

alexwood

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Ok, here's another thing, his drivers license which is included in the docs released by the school indicate he has a Class D license with an F endorsement.

Here's what that means in Tennessee: https://www.tn.gov/safety/article/classf

I wonder if Tad has any experiences driving professionally that would lead him to know routes or have access to specialized vehicles.

MOO -- If he did any driving of church vehicles, even as a volunteer (see below), to transport groups from Church on trips, outings, etc., he may have needed this Class D license w/F endorsement.

"PLEASE NOTE: Although you may not be required by law to have the For-Hire endorsement your employer may require you to obtain this endorsement for insurance or safety requirements. - See more at: https://www.tn.gov/safety/article/classf#sthash.PdlSPEby.dpuf"
 

Mom24

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As I have stated earlier, I have always thought they are headed out of the country.

And I think I see some evidence that supports that theory.

They drove the Rouge instead of the Jeep. She considered herself to be pledged to him (wife on IG). He researched marriage with young girls. I think she has been a willing participant for most, if not all, of this time.

They did linger in the area, it seems, for the first day until the AA went out. At that point, you have to get out of the warned area.

It just makes sense that if you need to leave the warned area and get out of the country, you go to Texas. At the time, Texas was not warned (the focus was on FL and the Gulf), it has plenty of rural locations where populations are sparse, it is a "staging" or "holding" place before making the dive into Mexico. If needed, you can "sell" the idea of Mexican beaches as their dream location together.

I think Mexico will be too risky for them. Too many road checkpoints, too close to the US, too many drug activities. What are the options?

To me the best options are Guatemala and Nicaragua. Not too many Americans but enough to not be out of place. Can use the missionary "cover" if needed. Inexpensive living. Remote and rural in many areas.

Are they going there and will they make it? There are many obstacles in the way, including keeping the fantasy alive during non-fantasy-like conditions. Adrenalin will wear down at some point. When the manic time erodes, she will have a decision to make. If they are in Mexico or further south, her choices will be very limited.

The above is my opinion only.

Although it would make more sense to head up to Canada. Easy to get in, lots of places to hide, English is spoken,etc. And it's in the complete opposite direction of where most would think to look. They could easily drive across the border and not even have to go through any border crossings and risk being seen.
 

bestill

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They way he boasts about his accomplishments just makes me ill.

They aren't accomplishments it's more like opportunities he's embellishing.
 
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