Tropical Storm Emily 08.2011

Discussion in 'Weather' started by momtective, Aug 1, 2011.

  1. momtective

    momtective Lifetime WS Non-Mod

    Messages:
    12,005
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    At 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
    located near latitude 15.2 north...longitude 62.0 west. Emily is
    moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/h. A turn toward the
    west-northwest and a slight decrease in forward speed are expected
    over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the center of
    Emily will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight...and
    approach the island of Hispaniola Tuesday night and Wednesday.


    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/h...with higher
    gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.


    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110
    km...mainly to the north of the center.


    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201105.public.html

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201105.html
     
  2. Loading...


  3. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1865

    Posted by: JeffMasters, 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

    Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.

    Forecast For Emily
    The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.

    The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.
     
  4. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
  5. momtective

    momtective Lifetime WS Non-Mod

    Messages:
    12,005
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    My kids are in Florida on vacation until next Sunday...I hope this thing putters out, but it doesn't look like it will, does it.
     
  6. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Depends where in Florida they are...

    I am East Coast and in a direct line for it unless it changes paths.

    What I never understand is how they can figure with it so far away still that it will remain a Cat 2 or less. Even a Cat 2 should be taken seriously though. It can still do some major damage.

    ETA: And it really does not matter what CAT it is the preparations are all the same, ugh.

    Thinking on that again, no it's not. A CAT 3 or above and we evacuate equipment trailers and the 30'camper, valuables, tools so we have them when we return etc...

    We went through Frances and Jeanne. Almost 3 wks w/no power, it was on again for a couple days and we started all over again with the second hurricane and no power again for days. Horrible. My roof almost came off. They replaced 21 sheets of base plywood up there. The nails that were supposed to be in the roof trusses were actually sitting next to the trusses where the roof lifted and came back down. All of the front rafters were actually twisted and had to be repaired. FEMA said a few more minutes of sustained winds and it would have been gone. There were 7 of us here then. It sounded like a roofer was up there with a nail gun during the storm but the reality was it was more nails popping. We quickly discovered that two bathrooms are not enough for 7 people, lol. Never again. CAT 3 or above and we get the heck out.

    The beginning prep is the same though. Fuel all vehicles, water, food, more fuel for generator, make ice bottles, clean the yard, tie things down etc...
     
  7. Kat

    Kat Kind words do not cost much

    Messages:
    17,195
    Likes Received:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Thanks Mom!

    I'm trying to watch the hurricanes this year in the pacific, it's our first hurricane season here.
     
  8. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I can't remember what CAT Wilma was when she hit here but she blew water in under the eaves and flooded one of the bedrooms. Iirc Wilma was a low CAT.

    ETA: I was wrong! Wilma was a 5! It was not that bad here though. Not as bad as Frances and Jeanne.

    Looking at the path Wilma took and she was not as bad for us as she came in from the W and had already hit the W coast of FL and come across before she got to us.
     
  9. reportertype

    reportertype Dogs are awesome!

    Messages:
    2,927
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I remember how quick Charley shifted. 30-minute warning.
     
  10. momtective

    momtective Lifetime WS Non-Mod

    Messages:
    12,005
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I'm thinking they are probably safe, considering they are in the Pensacola area...but with these things you just never know...I mean right now it looks like it's headed straight for the tip of Florida, so in my mind it could go in on the West as easily as the East. I'm keeping my eye on it for sure.
    All you Florida WS's stay safe!
     
  11. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    They have it turning more E now. I posted that a few mins ago but then was not sure so I removed it. Now it seems to be the consensus but as always with it 5 days out...it can change.

    As long as it stays on the path it is on or heads E they will be fine in P-cola. They would have problems if it went W of FL though. IMO
     
  12. Wise Old Owl

    Wise Old Owl Retired WS Staff & Founding member of AFKBPOFPOPL

    Messages:
    13,621
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    What we have to watch is that ridge that's above it. If that ridge dips at the right time - time to batten the hatches.

    Strength is only supposed to get to a Cat 1. No real biggie there - except when Wilma hit here in 2005, she really tore this place up! And she was a 1 BUT she came from "behind" - came in from the West Coast.

    It does look as though we are gonna take this one - somewhere from just north of WPB all the way to the Keys.

    I'll be doing a survey of the yard tomorrow and Wed to see what needs to be lashed or taken in. Not all that worried about this one - yet. As many as I've been through in my life, this one isn't looking that nasty - yet. We'll see. Don't have a generator for this one - dern it. Probably won't need one anyway.

    Either way - I would much rather live here and only worry about hurricanes - then live somehwere where tornados or earthquakes can happen without ANY warning. Little sotrm never hurt me.

    I'm just an ole :crazy: conch. Now where's that bottle of rum?
     
  13. Beyond Belief

    Beyond Belief New Member

    Messages:
    14,497
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    The 5 day prediction is would you believe, making landing right on top of my head. My house is right where that darn dot on the map is. good grief, i don't need this mess. :(
     
  14. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Beyond Belief I am TC too, if you need help, you find me, ok?
    I have grown men here who will help batten down etc...
     
  15. Beyond Belief

    Beyond Belief New Member

    Messages:
    14,497
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Thank you so much, I think we'll be okay, this old house is like a fortress, lol.
     
  16. Beyond Belief

    Beyond Belief New Member

    Messages:
    14,497
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Hopefully this thing will stay out to sea and we won't all of a sudden have water front property. I already am supplied, got all the junk in and bushes cut. BUT, the pool doesn't have any water in it so i better fill it up or it will out there on I95.
    This area can be a real trip after the storms, I saw a trampoline that must have blown a 1/2 mile and all the port o lets they set up after one storm were blown close to a mile down the road from the shopping center after the next storm, that was frances and jean. I wish I had taken a picture of that. Ha!
     
  17. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Well, my uneducated opinion is that she looks like she is strengthening and forming much better than she was just a couple of hours ago. But that's just me. My opinion only.

    We'll see tomorrow and in the days to come.
    TTYT
    G'night
     
  18. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    :floorlaugh:

     
  19. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    There was a hurricane.
    A man was on his front porch, when a police car came by.
    “You’d better get in the car, Mister,” the policeman said. “Storm's coming!”
    “Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
    An hour later, the same policeman came by in a boat, and saw the same man, now at a second story window, watching the water rise.
    “Better get in the boat,” the policeman said. “The tide is still risin’ fast!”
    “Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
    Another hour went by, and the same policeman came by again in his boat and saw the man, now sitting on his roof, watching the water rush by his house.
    “Come on, man! Get in the boat!” the policeman said. “The water is still rising!”
    “Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
    Another hour goes by, and a helicopter flies over, and sees the man now perched atop his chimney.
    The pilot yells at the man, “Hang on, we’ll lower a rope to you and pull you up!”
    “Oh, no!” the man shouts back, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the helicopter left.
    The man dies and goes to heaven, and says to God, “There was a hurricane and a flood & I trusted you to save me! Why’d you let me die?”

    “Well,” God answered, “I sent you a car, two boats, and a helicopter. Wasn’t that enough?”
    =============
    I don't know who wrote it, sorry.
    I clipped it from a post on the weather blog, lol.

    G'night
     
  20. Peliman

    Peliman New Member

    Messages:
    6,766
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Tuesday August 2 8:22am

    5 Day cone has changed since yesterday, showing it skirting the east coast of Florida. Let's just say this far away, this storm is unpredictable at the moment. Public advisory calling it poorly organized.

    [​IMG]
     
  21. dsntslp

    dsntslp New Member

    Messages:
    2,622
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice