Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley, 45, last seen walking her dog on footpath by the river, Inskip, Lancashire, 27 Jan 2023

[Firstsnow4]

While it’s still hard to shake the feeling this is an accident, in terms of abduction potential, looking at Google maps it *might* be possible to get a vehicle up to the gate next the bench, though it’s not possible to see whether the track there is gated at the Wyreside Farm entrance, or if this is a private farm driveway/track. Access would be from Garstang Road via Allotment Road (private road), but I get the feeling you would need to know the area well.
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I see there are camping pods north-west of the bench and off of the road you have highlighted.
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[ChocolateChip]

... or someone who has grabbed her?

The phone on the bench is concerning. Stopped to listen, sit and then she has put it down to attend to whatever has grabbed her attention.

And if it wasn’t her dog in danger then could it have been a person feigning an illness or accident?

 

[Sweeper2000]

I’m trying to think of why the police could have found the phone on the bench.
1. she deliberately left it there and then went missing, doesn’t explain why the conference call was still active.
2. she placed it there whilst listening to the call but then went to the river and fell in
3. she placed it there and then was abducted
4. Other person left it there to ensure it wasn’t traced by ping
5. left there by accident
that doesn’t explain the still active call though.

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

One thing to mention - looking at the photos this river is a faster flowing river and often on bends this is greater. As some one else mentioned on bends rivers are deeper (we would swim in the these areas in summer as when the river dries up those deeper pockets remain.

The soil is bare / no vegetation in the photos which means it would potentially be slippy. Also the bed of these rivers are either bare rock or a thick muddy sludge - as there are a lot of trees I would weigh on the thick muddy sludge in some areas.

When I was 14 a friend of mine slipped on a similar bank - when he hit the water he couldn't catch his breath and although a good swimmer and a friend trying to pull him out. His body was like a lead weight and sadly lost his life.

Always be careful around these rivers. They are a lot worse than just a few feet of water even in a low level.
I hope they find her soon

One thing I'm curious about was how much police attention has been made to where the dog has been found. Dogs often stay with their owners even in when they have passed away.

 

[IrisElizabeth]

Anyone know why the police would explicitly say 'this is not a crime inquiry' at such an early stage?

 

[JumpingFrog]

Anyone know why the police would explicitly say 'this is not a crime inquiry' at such an early stage?

Jmoo, but I wonder that they're trying to assure someone that they're not on to them

 

[dotr]

I’m trying to think of why the police could have found the phone on the bench.
1. she deliberately left it there and then went missing, doesn’t explain why the conference call was still active.
2. she placed it there whilst listening to the call but then went to the river and fell in
3. she placed it there and then was abducted
4. Other person left it there to ensure it wasn’t traced by ping
5. left there by accident
that doesn’t explain the still active call though.

Just speculation, but maybe someone (NB?) placed all those items on the bench and tuned into the conference call, but muted, thus giving the impression (for whatever reason) that she was there at that bench, at that time, participating in a work call? imo

 

[kate2931]

I live across the bay but I was in the Fylde for a week from Tuesday the 10th of this month - it rained and rained and rained. I wanted to head out on walks myself but the weather was that bad I was confined to the hotel for 6 out of the 7 days. Gales too. I think I read a post a bit further back about streams/rivers still flowing fast for a week or two after the bad weather …

I think she’s likely got up, left the phone etc on the bench because Willow may have been stuck on the embankment, struggling in the water or maybe NB hadn’t seen Willow for a few minutes down by the river edge and wondered what she was up to - all sadly leading to a slip into the water. If the police say they’re not dealing with a crime here then I feel this is the most likely scenario.

Can we find the river level for Friday ?

 

[Sweeper2000]

Just speculation, but maybe someone (NB?) placed all those items on the bench and tuned into the conference call, but muted, thus giving the impression (for whatever reason) that she was there at that bench, at that time, participating in a work call? imo

That’s good. Anyone calling her ie husband would realise she is still on the conference call. Even after a while, if she deliberately went missing I would presume she told her family she was expecting that call. That would give her cover for enough time to get away so to speak. Alarm wouldn’t be raised for at least an hour or two.

 

[Officer Dibble]

I am wondering who saw Nicola and where. The reports are confusing. It appears that she was last seen BEFORE starting her walk?

ETA police have reported that she was seen by a member of the public on the towpath about 9.15am.

I guess its easy to place these things on a bench to try to tell a story. However, if the dog knew someone else very well by the bench then the dog would have followed them home, surely? Sadly though I expect its all a tragic accident. JMO MOO

 

[PeggyHenry]

Anyone know why the police would explicitly say 'this is not a crime inquiry' at such an early stage?

I can only think it is a deliberate attempt to make someone feel that they are not being monitored / watched

 

[Sweeper2000]

I live across the bay but I was in the Fylde for a week from Tuesday the 10th of this month - it rained and rained and rained. I wanted to head out on walks myself but the weather was that bad I was confined to the hotel for 6 out of the 7 days. Gales too. I think I read a post a bit further back about streams/rivers still flowing fast for a week or two after the bad weather …

I think she’s likely got up, left the phone etc on the bench because Willow may have been stuck on the embankment, struggling in the water or maybe NB hadn’t seen Willow for a few minutes down by the river edge and wondered what she was up to - all sadly leading to a slip into the water. If the police say they’re not dealing with a crime here then I feel this is the most likely scenario.

Can we find the river level for Friday ?

River Wyre level at St Michaels - GOV.UK

Check the latest recorded river level and recent 5-day trend at St Michaels

check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk

says it was normal. I’m not sure if it’s reliable though. It does need to be heavy rain for a significant increase in levels and force. Light rain over days doesn’t see a drastic increase. However even a slight increase in river volume means a significant increase in force and speed of flow especially against a person.

it’s true as Well, significant increase in force on bends as the river builds Momentum pushing against the bank. It looks to be almost a 90 degree bend which is quite a sharp turn IMO.

 

[mdf14]

I’m trying to think of why the police could have found the phone on the bench.
1. she deliberately left it there and then went missing, doesn’t explain why the conference call was still active.
2. she placed it there whilst listening to the call but then went to the river and fell in
3. she placed it there and then was abducted
4. Other person left it there to ensure it wasn’t traced by ping
5. left there by accident
that doesn’t explain the still active call though.

On point 1, she could have just left the call active so work assumed she was still on the call and they didn't wonder where she was and raise an alarn
Point 3 and 4 seems unlikely, you wouldn't leave your phone lying on a bench unless you were doing something specific, if an abductor saw it they would be unlikely to leave it on display
Point 5 also seems unlikely when linked with either intentional or otherwise disappearance.

Given the police seem to be indicating they don't think it's a crime, I think point 1 could be right, also given her unusually quiet social media activity lately. Point 2 could also be the answer, hopefully for her sake it isn't this though.

 

[MusicalMonkey]

No river expert

I live across the bay but I was in the Fylde for a week from Tuesday the 10th of this month - it rained and rained and rained. I wanted to head out on walks myself but the weather was that bad I was confined to the hotel for 6 out of the 7 days. Gales too. I think I read a post a bit further back about streams/rivers still flowing fast for a week or two after the bad weather …

I think she’s likely got up, left the phone etc on the bench because Willow may have been stuck on the embankment, struggling in the water or maybe NB hadn’t seen Willow for a few minutes down by the river edge and wondered what she was up to - all sadly leading to a slip into the water. If the police say they’re not dealing with a crime here then I feel this is the most likely scenario.

Can we find the river level for Friday ?

That is also what I think. Currents are really strong especially after any rain (I almost got knocked over in an ankle deep stream once), phone on the bench is near the river . . .

 

[emucalfskin]

I’m from the local area, weather was fine and dry on Friday. I haven’t been around the actual location to see the river level, it is on the list for flood warning alerts as it can be a fast flowing river, but I can’t see anything alarming for Friday. Lots of people have been out searching, lots worried, out of character for her to just go missing

 

[rsd1200]

While statistically it's most likely she went into the water, the only thing that gives me pause is that this happened Friday morning. There would have been plenty of walkers up and down the river for the whole weekend, even without the search parties.

Now drowning can be very fast/silent. At the same time the river is fairly narrow and for the most part embanked river. While it is fast flowing/deceptively deep, and she could have got snagged somewhere - there is a reasonable chance a body would be spotted imo.

On the other hand, there is a lot of hidden water/flood management going on since the River Wyre bursts its banks and floods homes fairly regularly, so it may not be as simple as simply looking down river, there might be all sorts of sluces and pipes and water diversion etc to check if the current pulls things towards them.

I am leaning toward your drowning theory.

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

The only thing with the drowning theory - these rivers have highly predictable flows - they go in the same direction and you can roughly estimate where a body would be. Not to mention there are lower leveled areas creating like a dam in other areas and some man made influences to restrict flow.

Police have methods to quickly identify / find someone in these rivers.

I was posting in here when the Libby Squires case was going on as I live local to that river - the difference there was it was tidal meaning multiple directions depending on the time of day / under currents in opposite direction sometimes. She did surface which was extremely sad - in this case I can imagine within a few days they will have an answer if she has drowned.

I live on the River Trent myself which is a river coming off the Humber estuary - it is tidal and sadly when people commit suicide the police can often model the direction they will go and you can see with the helicopter direction they know where to look - more than often enough they find people quite early on in those cases.

Things that make me question something else is the phone being left on the bench and the harness off the dog, if she had fallen in or walked in, would there be a trail where she entered as the grass / branches or soil at the point of entry?

If you go into google and click street view, someone has created 360 spheres along the path and you can clearly see it has steeper banks in areas and the banks look like a sandy / muddy mix due to the rising levels of that river. Its also a fishing spot so that identifies deeper water (people commonly catching chub which like faster flowing water). If she had fallen in you would clearly see the track marks and often when I've gone fishing you can see where I had been closer to the rivers edge days previous on vegetation.

 

[Sweeper2000]

I am leaning toward your drowning theory.

It’s very potential, unfortunately and sadly if true. You would be surprised what’s under the water. Any direction of flow against a bank can create a undercut, potential for her body to be there. Any tree in the river creates a massive gauge in the river bed, the water is diverted by The tree downwards and that flow can create a gauge well over ten feet in depth. another potential resting spot. This is ahead of time though. Could still have gone missing willingly, fingers crossed.

 

[Sweeper2000]

The only thing with the drowning theory - these rivers have highly predictable flows - they go in the same direction and you can roughly estimate where a body would be. Not to mention there are lower leveled areas creating like a dam in other areas and some man made influences to restrict flow.

Police have methods to quickly identify / find someone in these rivers.

I was posting in here when the Libby Squires case was going on as I live local to that river - the difference there was it was tidal meaning multiple directions depending on the time of day / under currents in opposite direction sometimes. She did surface which was extremely sad - in this case I can imagine within a few days they will have an answer if she has drowned.

I live on the River Trent myself which is a river coming off the Humber estuary - it is tidal and sadly when people commit suicide the police can often model the direction they will go and you can see with the helicopter direction they know where to look - more than often enough they find people quite early on in those cases.

Things that make me question something else is the phone being left on the bench and the harness off the dog, if she had fallen in or walked in, would there be a trail where she entered as the grass / branches or soil at the point of entry?

If you go into google and click street view, someone has created 360 spheres along the path and you can clearly see it has steeper banks in areas and the banks look like a sandy / muddy mix due to the rising levels of that river. Its also a fishing spot so that identifies deeper water (people commonly catching chub which like faster flowing water). If she had fallen in you would clearly see the track marks and often when I've gone fishing you can see where I had been closer to the rivers edge days previous on vegetation.

I was thinking that as well in regards to the last points about potential marks on the bank. you could probably identify the footsteps leading to any more forceful marks on the bank if she did slip. The police would have covered that I’m sure.

 

[jackal67]

Does anyone here use a dog harness and would you take it off during a walk or just detach the lead from the harness ? My dog wears a collar, which is left on, when off the lead.

we leave harness on and just detach the lead