Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[MsBetsy]

Maybe police need to be aware of that if they’re not already… particularly if they were the person who ties the dog up with string and finds the harness etc.

Was it string or did they use the lead?

 

[Noseyjosey]

Lancashire Constabulary - I have been reported as missing but I am safe and don't want people to know where I am, what should I do?

I have been reported as missing but I am safe and don't want people to know where I am, what should I do?

www.lancashire.police.uk

 

[Edg]

I didn't say that cold shock was hypothermia, hence the ' & ' between the two words.

the links I've been reading must be wrong then (about the risks of cold shock response for accidental water falls, sudden aspiration of water, hyperventilation, blood pressure rise and the risk of cardio vascular difficulties etc)

Maybe, instead I should view the risks in this case as more akin to the habituated user who routinely uses the local lake in winter for wild swimming....

I apologise I misunderstood your comment. You’re not wrong about the hazard. It’s a possibility. The risk is very low though. The warning is more akin to the warning that an accidental electric shock from a domestic appliance can kill. In the vast majority of cases it’s not fatal. But A very small amount of current accross the heart can induce fatal arythmia ( that’s why RCDs were introduced ).

The cold dip into a harbour I mentioned was used for many years without issue, on a wide range of people. They had generally passed a medical, which later had an ECG.

Cold shock is real, it hurts. The chances of inducing cardiac arythmia, fatal vascular complications , involuntary aspiration etc. are very low in a healthy individual.

Leg cramp in swimmers can kill too, but it rarely does.

My own first experience of sudden cold water immersion was not as an acclimatised swimmer but as a 16 year old in the middle of a tidal lake.
Unpleasant, Intercostal muscles spasm too it’s hard to breath etc. but if you’re a confident swimmer you will generally make it out alive

 

[Edg]

I didn't say that cold shock was hypothermia, hence the ' & ' between the two words.

the links I've been reading must be wrong then (about the risks of cold shock response for accidental water falls, sudden aspiration of water, hyperventilation, blood pressure rise and the risk of cardio vascular difficulties etc)

Maybe, instead I should view the risks in this case as more akin to the habituated user who routinely uses the local lake in winter for wild swimming....

I apologise I misunderstood your comment. You’re not wrong about the hazard. It’s a possibility. The risk is very low though. The warning is more akin to the warning that an accidental electric shock from a domestic appliance can kill. In the vast majority of cases it’s not fatal. But A very small amount of current accross the heart can induce fatal arythmia ( that’s why RCDs were introduced ).

The cold dip into a harbour I mentioned was used for many years without issue, on a wide range of people. They had generally passed a medical, which later had an ECG.

Cold shock is real, it hurts. The chances of inducing cardiac arythmia, fatal vascular complications , involuntary aspiration etc. are very low in a healthy individual.

Leg cramp in swimmers can kill too, but it rarely does.

My own first experience of sudden cold water immersion was not as an acclimatised swimmer but as a 16 year old in the middle of a tidal lake.
Unpleasant, Intercostal muscles spasm too it’s hard to breath etc. but if you’re a confident swimmer you will generally make it out alive

 

[Fishwick]

So the witness who was in a hurry for a meeting who 'suddenly" couldn't remember who's dog Willow was, had string on her person to tie dog up then didn't alert anyone for over an hour to what she had found or done? Is this correct?

The string can't be taken as fact IMO - only been shared on the social media of a friend.

Regardless, the witness works (& potentially lives), <150 metres from the bench.

 

[Cluella DeVille]

I think initially a body sinks pretty quickly. However once it enters the bloat stage and fills up with gasses it tends to float.

It may not reach the surface but could travel a good distance if caught up in a strong current.

IMO the intense land/air scrutiny and intent focus on that river since day one, a floating or partial floating body would very likely have been spotted at some point over the course of almost 2 weeks. The fact that the river has remained calm and still, little or no rain to raise the levels or to cause a surge will have surely advantaged the search

 

[CabotCove]

That she went in the river?

A sighting
A sound
An item of clothing
A possession being found
Signs of a slip or fall down the bank
Signs of a struggle to get out
The dog 100% not being wet
etc etc

We don’t have any of that. All we have is two weeks of searches finding nothing and the expert saying she’s not in there.

I agree and I think the key missing piece is evidence of a slip or fall on the bank of the river. Even if she was on the edge and toppled over, you would expect footprints or signs of walking to be evident as it would not be an area with heavy footfall.

As such, and given it is now accepted an exit from the field unseen was possible, this means a third party involvement is just as plausible. To get up from the bench without taking your phone would require something urgent. Perhaps the dog was scrapping with a larger dog, someone was stealing the dog or she saw/heard someone in distress. If she ran off in the direction of the exit with no CCTV, it seems entirely plausible that an incident occurred and she then left the field in that 10 minute timeframe without anyone seeing. The puzzle then is the dog, it would have to have been distracted during the incident itself and returned to the bench expecting to find NB there

 

[wallaby]

Not sure what the chances are, but it’s possible. You can trip or stumble and then fall. You don’t have to doing something fundamentally dangerous to fall. And by way of comparison, my brother has fallen into the Shropshire Union Canal on 2 occasions.

Yes, I would tend to think it unlikely too, but then a few years ago my family and I witnessed a fluke, unlikely, life threatening accident on a costal walk. If we hadn’t been there by chance to witness it and call the coast guard someone would have died.

These things do sadly happen, sometimes it’s because they are so unusual that they can’t be figured out.

 

[MsBetsy]

So the witness who was in a hurry for a meeting who 'suddenly" couldn't remember who's dog Willow was, had string on her person to tie dog up then didn't alert anyone for over an hour to what she had found or done? Is this correct?

It sounds like the witness was already in a hurry once they found the dog. I'm sure if they thought someone's life was in danger they would have called right away.

Tying the dog probably seemed like a better option rather than risk the dog running off and getting lost or hurt. Keeping him restrained also might have made it easier for the dog's human to find it.

Maybe that's what they were thinking. Finding an unleashed dog is not an indication that the person it belongs to is in trouble.

 

[wallaby]

Not sure what the chances are, but it’s possible. You can trip or stumble and then fall. You don’t have to doing something fundamentally dangerous to fall. And by way of comparison, my brother has fallen into the Shropshire Union Canal on 2 occasions.

Yes, I would tend to think it unlikely too, but then a few years ago my family and I witnessed a fluke, unlikely, life threatening accident on a costal walk. If we hadn’t been there by chance to witness it and call the coast guard someone would have died.

These things do sadly happen, sometimes it’s because they are so unusual that they can’t be figured out.

 

[Seattle1]

We can acknowledge the harness and the phone was found by the bench. No mention of the lead. Its always been harness. Witness who found the phone and harness used string to tie the dog (possibly because no lead). Perhaps the lead was found and recovered from the river.

In addition to the mobile, both harness and lead left behind:

The lead and harness for Willow, her springer spaniel dog, was also left on or close to the bench.

^^rsbm

 

[flysleuthD]

It sounds like the witness was already in a hurry once they found the dog. I'm sure if they thought someone's life was in danger they would have called right away.































Tying the dog probably seemed like a better option rather than risk the dog running off and getting lost or hurt. Keeping the dog restrained also might have made it easier for the dog's human to find it.































Maybe that's what they were thinking. Finding an unleashed dog is not an indication that the person it belongs to is in trouble.







Totally agree
My emphasis really was on a person in a hurry to be conveniently carrying string?

 

[LaLaLadot]

Only a telephone number. You don’t have your address on the tag for obvious reasons.

The law states all dogs must be chipped, which mine is, but there’s no law stating you must have all details on a small tag. Just a telephone number is sufficient.

Actually, UK law is that dogs must wear a collar at all times and it must detail their owner's name and address. A postcode is acceptable. Lots of people do put mobile numbers or their vets number. But if you lose your mobile phone AND the dog, or run out of battery it's a good idea to have a landline. I also state neutered and microchipped, please scan.

 

[cottonweaver]

duplicate

 

[cottonweaver]

I apologise I misunderstood your comment. You’re not wrong about the hazard. It’s a possibility. The risk is very low though. The warning is more akin to the warning that an accidental electric shock from a domestic appliance can kill. In the vast majority of cases it’s not fatal. But A very small amount of current accross the heart can induce fatal arythmia ( that’s why RCDs were introduced ).

The cold dip into a harbour I mentioned was used for many years without issue, on a wide range of people. They had generally passed a medical, which later had an ECG.

Cold shock is real, it hurts. The chances of inducing cardiac arythmia, fatal vascular complications , involuntary aspiration etc. are very low in a healthy individual.

Leg cramp in swimmers can kill too, but it rarely does.

My own first experience of sudden cold water immersion was not as an acclimatised swimmer but as a 16 year old in the middle of a tidal lake.
Unpleasant, Intercostal muscles spasm too it’s hard to breath etc. but if you’re a confident swimmer you will generally make it out alive

No problem.
Regarding the risks of drowning per se - forget the very, very cold water angle just for now - are you also saying that the risk of drowning for accidental water entry is small when you say ' very low'?

 

[hedgetog]

I apologise I misunderstood your comment. You’re not wrong about the hazard. It’s a possibility. The risk is very low though. The warning is more akin to the warning that an accidental electric shock from a domestic appliance can kill. In the vast majority of cases it’s not fatal. But A very small amount of current accross the heart can induce fatal arythmia ( that’s why RCDs were introduced ).

The cold dip into a harbour I mentioned was used for many years without issue, on a wide range of people. They had generally passed a medical, which later had an ECG.

Cold shock is real, it hurts. The chances of inducing cardiac arythmia, fatal vascular complications , involuntary aspiration etc. are very low in a healthy individual.

Leg cramp in swimmers can kill too, but it rarely does.

My own first experience of sudden cold water immersion was not as an acclimatised swimmer but as a 16 year old in the middle of a tidal lake.
Unpleasant, Intercostal muscles spasm too it’s hard to breath etc. but if you’re a confident swimmer you will generally make it out alive

Are you able to link research to this please? The average water temp in this country for Feb is around 10 degrees and cold water shock is a risk in waters below 15. Much research has shown that the individuals swimming ability isn't related to the chance of survival, the bigger factor is whether they immediately carry out preventative actions such as covering mouth before entering the water, remaining still- stuff most people, especially in a panic, wouldn't know or do and of which largely goes against natural instinct.

I'm not suggesting NB did unfortunately enter the water and succumbed to cold water shock or didn't, but it's surprising if research has changed that much but MOO I'd be interested if it was indeed a low risk if she did go into the water.

It's been some years admittedly but I have spent a lot of time in and around bodies of water for my sport- linked just 2 reputable sources but tonnes of research, the graph on the second link is especially useful:

The cold shocking truth about cold water shock

Cold water shock causes involuntary body reactions that can be as swift as they are deadly

www.rya.org.uk

Home | cold water safety

www.coldwatersafety.org

 

[GTB72]

Apologies if this has already been posted by I think it's quite for following the case.

Nicola Bulley live updates as police issue update and search new area

Mother-of-two Nicola Bulley has not been seen since she vanished while out walking her dog on February 27

www.walesonline.co.uk

 

[LaLaLadot]

Only a telephone number. You don’t have your address on the tag for obvious reasons.

The law states all dogs must be chipped, which mine is, but there’s no law stating you must have all details on a small tag. Just a telephone number is sufficient.

Actually, UK law (Control of Dogs Order 1992) states that dogs must wear a collar at all times and it must detail their owner's name and address. A postcode is acceptable. Lots of people do put mobile numbers or their vets number. But if you lose your mobile phone AND the dog, or run out of battery it's a good idea to have a landline. I also state neutered and microchipped, please scan.

 

[cottonweaver]

That she went in the river?

A sighting
A sound
An item of clothing
A possession being found
Signs of a slip or fall down the bank
Signs of a struggle to get out
The dog 100% not being wet
etc etc

We don’t have any of that. All we have is two weeks of searches finding nothing and the expert saying she’s not in there.

It's very difficult because often these will not be found in accidental drownings in open water* but a coroner will still later find it's death by misadventure or accidental death, drowning ( if no criminal evidence or hinting towards suicide)

* Just cause of the nature of such cases, their location etc. ( remote or less busy than this one) and because moving bodies of water also move debris as well as literally wash-away signs of slips & struggles etc

Here's a case, discovered 2 days ago, poor guy ( Completely different river risks & location, Yorkshire , but another case where there seems to have been no witnesses. Went missing walking in December. Fit 45year old walker)

Man's body found in search for missing North Yorkshire man

A BODY recovered from the River Ure in Ripon is that of a missing man Gavin Dhont.

www.yorkpress.co.uk

 

[InVinoVeritas]

We are looking at the dog scenario with the benefit of hindsight. One doesn't automatically presume an owner is missing/in trouble without signs as such. For instance, over Christmas I was staying at my Mums house and suddenly a dog appeared in the garden. I couldn't get outside to check its collar as my mother's dog was going crazy. I took a photo and posted on the local community page. I never heard anything and have no idea whose dog it was. Some on here may say that wasn't great of me, but that was the course of action I took at the time.
In all honesty, if a lot of us were walking that path and came across a loose dog and a phone on the bench, we might presume the owner was nearby. I definitely wouldn't tie it up! I might check the collar and phone the number on the tag, but that's because I'm au fait with a smartphone.

If as some people have suggested, this person was unimpressed with dogs off the lead, she might've tied up for this reason and nothing else. Bold move given she didn't know the dog.

MORE'S THE POINT .... how long was Nicola normally out for on her dog walks? At what point would PA have reported her missing? Was he expecting her home straight after?