First time poster here, so hopefully don't misstep re: any of the forum rules.
I followed along on here from the beginning of the Sarah Everard case (her disappearance was dreadfully sad and really hit home as a female Londoner, same age, same industry). And now this very worrying disappearance; for me another personal overlap having grown up just mins. from Smarts Lane.
Firstly as someone who regularly gets cabs to this area from London, a trip from Paddington area would be v. expensive even for me as an adult professional. I certainly wouldn't get a black taxi (too ££) and would only do it if public transport wasn't an option. If I *had* to it would be an Uber (which would require his mobile so we can probably eliminate that given the time he is seen in the area and when his phone went off). In the past when I was younger and had less disposable income however, I would often get minicabs (sometimes *shudders* unlicensed) to save money. Could be a possibility? And might fit the narrative that he paid in cash. Possibly saving money ahead of time with the express intention to head out to Epping Forest for a reason I think we're all hoping isn't the outcome? JMO.
In terms of drop-off, Smarts Lane leads on directly from the High Street, opposite a big M&S shop, and that itself is one of the first things you come across on the way into Loughton from the either direction you'd approach from West London - either via A406 or M11. If the A406, I know there is an active speed camera at the top of Spring Grove which could have caught his vehicle coming into town.
Smarts Lane itself is a place where you might hop out the car. It's where the first pub on the High St. is and the road is the first real turn-off into Epping Forest before you get to the High St. proper. If he were to continue up that Smarts Lane and past the The Victorian Tavern pub where CCTV captured him, he'd end up on Earls Path and into the forest. There's nowhere else to go really apart from a few other v. quiet backstreets. It's a weird place to walk esp. at that hour because it's just residential streets, then pretty abruptly turns into a very fast road cutting through the forest.
Once up on Earl's Path you'd have to walk directly into the forest or at least on the grass verge as the road becomes what is either a 60mph road (or even if it isn't, locals drive very fast along here). Looks to me like he's headed for the forest for whatever reason, and with intent. Hopefully he'd be spotted by cars (even on a quiet night it's a pretty busy road out of Loughton and onto the Epping New Road thoroughfare which cuts through the forest and onto the M25). Also worth noting that if he doesn't cut straight into the forest and continues up Earls Path even further soon he'd get to a small car park. It's popular with walkers and that is where you could join actual footpaths into the forest. Not usually active at night, but could be a location where someone is parked?
Sorry for the long post, but hopefully sheds some light onto the area. MOO.
Hoping he's found safe, and soon.