Found Deceased VA - Morgan Dana Harrington, 20, Charlottesville, 17 Oct 2009 - #5

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someone on here on last thread found on craigslist that it did seem she tried to sell them. Am on my phone so cant go back to find it

I may be thinking about the wrong post, but I thought the person in question lived in C'Ville (or had a C'Ville exchange) and also was trying to sell some furniture.
 
someone on here on last thread found on craigslist that it did seem she tried to sell them. Am on my phone so cant go back to find it

The phone # given in the Craig's List post the area code wouldn't jive with a phone for MH. The area code was for C'ville and surrounding area - (434)

The area code for Roanoke / Blacksburg is (540)
 
Whats the source for this I have not heard it's not that I doubt or question you personally but its good to check up on it simply b/c if it's not the case then we are very likely will have 6 pages discuss something that isn't even true and people that check in periodically will be bring up this point like its fact for weeks. Not that is would your fault or any thing but it's just the way it goes human nature I guess if three people mention the same rumor even if they all heard it from the same source we start to think of it as if it were fact. So I always think its good to head it off at the pass if at all possible. But if it is accurate obviously it would be a very relevant important piece of information.

I agree with what you've said, that's what I'm saying - I'd like to know if it is true. Obviously if true, a very important piece of info.
 
i agree with you on one hand, Cindy, on the other its like this: yes, you only have so many trained people, but when you know that in the beginning you will have a huge volume and require a lot of personnel you should have that in place--that's logistics. it's like if you have an earthquake and are expecting a lot of injuries to flood the ER and need a lot of ambulances and medical equipment--in general you (the municipality) might not have such on hand to accomodate this kind of dilemma, but if you expect one eery so often, or its not that infrequent in your region or area of work, then you have to be ready to assemble. knowing you might have an extra 100 on payroll for three weeks, will need some tents to operate out of, etc....if you miss a single tip, that might be key, as we stated early in thread 1 or 2, that something very small can be the case breaker, and later LE posted a request for tips on anything out of the ordinary.

my saying the family should pay someone to do it (didnt really mean that the mom would be on the fone saying "oh, have you seen my Morgan?") is a way to stem the loss of tips from the lack of resources of the LE, as per the general appearance of the case's handling. it is true...if we can walk to the moon, but we can't find a person, it really is a matter of resources...not like you need helicopters flying around all day, but you need to get the tips at least. and if they are having trouble following up on tips, and are doing everything over the fone, without a voice analyzer, then you can bet some tips will be false, some maybe true, but will sound false to the human ear and they will discount them..

again, it gets messy when there arent enuff people to handle it: it's like getting slammed in a restaurant with 1000 customers all at once--if its ever happened before to your restaurant or your type of restaurant, then you should have an emergency action plan-unless you think 5 days is a reasonable amount of time to get water to people [FEMA]?
 
I'm sure the volume of calls to tip lines peak when the media first reports on the situation and again whenever the number(s) is provided. There are only so many hours in the day and only so many trained personnel to screen the calls properly. I wouldn't want grieving family members and untrained friends, etc. to take the information and not know what questions to ask. Just because LE isn't moving as quickly as people would like is no reason for any of us to assume they aren't doing their jobs. In fact, I'd rather see them being methodical and ensuring critical information isn't getting leaked then quickly focusing on the wrong POIs. As Singe mentioned previously (and I am paraphrasing), I think it might be a good idea for all of us to ask ourselves if we truly believe the information we want released is truly for the benefit of finding MH or is to satisfy our own curiosity.[/QUOTE]

Good question. I'll answer it with another: Why can't satisfying our curiosity and allowing us sufficient information to think freely be to the benefit of finding MH?? AMW doesn't derive its success by withholding essentially all case information.
Assuming LE both knows best how to effect a rapid, live recovery of a missing person and that they always perform up to reasonable expectation is warranted only when the live recovery rate of index subgroups is high, which it is not for suspiciously missing, attractive 20 YOA females.

C6
 
in the end, i couldnt care about the info they released as long as they found her quick and safe--but when you hear many people state they werent interviewed or couldnt get their tip even in...that's a problem. and then those tips end up out here, when maybe they shouldnt all be?

as for the ticket girl not being interviewed and maybe didnt see anything: she could have seen the perp, but not MH, or seen something/someone hispanic whose card was declined (as an example)? idk...leave no stone unturned (for the LE that is). that's what we're doing here (sort of)-eventually we will have hit the exact scenario or something very close, or maybe we already did -even without clues or reports, or evidence.
 
i agree with you on one hand, Cindy, on the other its like this: yes, you only have so many trained people, but when you know that in the beginning you will have a huge volume and require a lot of personnel you should have that in place--that's logistics. it's like if you have an earthquake and are expecting a lot of injuries to flood the ER and need a lot of ambulances and medical equipment--in general you (the municipality) might not have such on hand to accomodate this kind of dilemma, but if you expect one eery so often, or its not that infrequent in your region or area of work, then you have to be ready to assemble. knowing you might have an extra 100 on payroll for three weeks, will need some tents to operate out of, etc....if you miss a single tip, that might be key, as we stated early in thread 1 or 2, that something very small can be the case breaker, and later LE posted a request for tips on anything out of the ordinary.

my saying the family should pay someone to do it (didnt really mean that the mom would be on the fone saying "oh, have you seen my Morgan?") is a way to stem the loss of tips from the lack of resources of the LE, as per the general appearance of the case's handling. it is true...if we can walk to the moon, but we can't find a person, it really is a matter of resources...not like you need helicopters flying around all day, but you need to get the tips at least. and if they are having trouble following up on tips, and are doing everything over the fone, without a voice analyzer, then you can bet some tips will be false, some maybe true, but will sound false to the human ear and they will discount them..

again, it gets messy when there arent enuff people to handle it: it's like getting slammed in a restaurant with 1000 customers all at once--if its ever happened before to your restaurant or your type of restaurant, then you should have an emergency action plan-unless you think 5 days is a reasonable amount of time to get water to people [FEMA]?

I agree that ideally it would be good to have all the resources in place. Unfortunately that isn't the case, especially with the current economic situation. Every city, county, and state and every govt agency is working with available resources. MH's case isn't the only one local LE is working, and personnel will have to be pulled to work other investigations. When that happens, it may appear LE isn't doing its job, but in most cases they continue to work the case quietly and doesn't mean the case has gone cold.

FWIW, I'm not sure LE is having trouble following up on tips. Yes, people are stating on message boards that no one has followed up with them. Perhaps it's because LE can tell pretty quickly in many cases when supposed eyewitnesses are reporting a case of mistaken identity, are nut cases, or are trying to be helpful but not providing enough information LE can investigate. Furthermore, if someone else has already reported the tip, and LE gleaned as much information as is they believe they need to move forward for the time being, then a return call to anyone else with similar information won't be as much of a priority. In effect, LE has formed a sort of triage in its response to calls.
 
sure, they may be doing that to move forward. but then how come they weren't so quick on the youtube DS posting. or the nose/face injury? and how come they say they don;t have much to go on? (of course putting aside my belief that no stone goes unturned)...and municipalities have gotten funding in the past several months, that includes a lot of graduates out of various LE academies. the muni's are struggling because a loss of income from property taxes and businesses, etc...but the SP aren't local and they have or had the lead, and with FBI on it, they have inordinate resources, so such excuses [we're short on manpower] shouldnt make much sense at this point.

oh yeah-suppose person A has a good tip and person B has a good tip too, about a diff part of the timeline. LE doesnt take person A's tip because they have that from someone else ('no time to loose...we gotta move up..etc). PErson A somehow mentions his/her tip wasnt taken. Person B hears this and decides, what's the point, I wont be able to get thru or they probably already have that.
SO, this kind of judgemental triage is not effective in an exact investigation--more of a quick and dirty kinda thing.


another imho.
 
The phone # given in the Craig's List post the area code wouldn't jive with a phone for MH. The area code was for C'ville and surrounding area - (434)

The area code for Roanoke / Blacksburg is (540)

I'm new here and can finally post:newbie:....but, could there be a chance that one of the "friends in Charlottesville" posted the ad on Craigslist for MH? Maybe they weren't a Metallica fan or maybe he/she didn't want to be around her friends or vice versa. There's a possibility that they thought someone in the C'ville area would be more likely to purchase the tickets since it was the day of the concert? This may be far fetched but IDK, there are so many possibilities in this case! I pray she comes home soon or atleast contacts her family if she did in fact run away.
 
and[/B] allowing us sufficient information to think freely be to the benefit of finding MH?? AMW doesn't derive its success by withholding essentially all case information.
Assuming LE both knows best how to effect a rapid, live recovery of a missing person and that they always perform up to reasonable expectation is warranted only when the live recovery rate of index subgroups is high, which it is not for suspiciously missing, attractive 20 YOA females.

C6

I think the 'and' thing is fine, we all have curiosity we wouldn't come here if we didn't but where curiosity and usefulness or carefulness collide curiosity has to take a back seat.

As far as you other example it is incorrect you are making the assumption that the only factor that effects the "live recovery rate" is the quality of the investigation by law enforcement. This is certainly not the case many factors affect the "live recovery rate" and I think quality of investigation is not even the most important. With 20 YO females they are more likely to be victims of sex crimes than say 60 YO men. After these sex crimes the victim is often kill and dumped quickly this has a huge effect on the "live recovery rate" and has nothing to do with LE one way or the other. If we look at the 60 YO male they would be somewhat more likely to be victims of something with a financial motive therefore there may be value in keeping them alive for longer which would almost surely lead to a higher "live recovery rate" again having nothing to do with what LE did one way or the other. We have seen a number of cases in the last year that suggest that people who abduct children may be somewhat more likely to keep them alive (I would assume this has to do with them being easier to control both physical and mentally i.e. brainwashing them into not constantly trying to escape) so this means with the children sub group live recovery rate will be higher. Even if we are talking about the recovery rate live/or dead similar factors still apply.

You are making the assumption that theoretically in every sub group 100% success rate is possible and so wherever the actual rate falls between 100% and 0% is a matter of how well the investigation is done. This just isn't true as an example if it turns out Morgan is deceased then its highly likely that she was dead prior to even being reported missing in this case live recovery rate is 0 and it is irrelevant what LE does b/c it was decided before they even where involved (just to be clear irrelevant to the live recovery rate obviously not the rate of solving the case).

AMW does not necessarily release any more information than what’s been released in this case. Wouldn’t you agree that AMWs success is based much more on the volume of audience they reach and the large geographic area this audience represents than on the detail level of the information they release? Especially in today’s mobile world where criminals can stay out of sight by simple moving to a different area.

Your correct the recovery rate for 20 YO female is not high, but that’s just as likely (in my opinion much more likely) to do with the challenge of the situation rather than performance of LE.

Certainly I question some things so far in the investigation, but the idea that clearly there
 
sure, they may be doing that to move forward. but then how come they weren't so quick on the youtube DS posting. or the nose/face injury? and how come they say they don;t have much to go on? (of course putting aside my belief that no stone goes unturned)...and municipalities have gotten funding in the past several months, that includes a lot of graduates out of various LE academies. the muni's are struggling because a loss of income from property taxes and businesses, etc...but the SP aren't local and they have or had the lead, and with FBI on it, they have inordinate resources, so such excuses [we're short on manpower] shouldnt make much sense at this point.

another imho.

I mentioned before that I had read on another message board that perhaps MH's facial injury was withheld from the public to help LE identify credible eyewitnesses versus wackos and people reporting cases of mistaken identity. The media somehow got hold of the information and reported it. If LE was using this evidence as part of the investigation, then it was compromised, and they lost a valuable gauge for helping to determine what tips to follow.

I throw this out as an example where it may seem that this information is benign and couldn't harm the case but actually may have served an important purpose of weeding out the non-credible sightings that helped helped, among other things, LE build the timeline.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on how LE has handled the situation. :)
 
The closest Boyd's Tavern I found to C'Ville is Boyd's Tavern Market in Keswick, VA, ~6-9 miles EAST of C'Ville. Harrisonburg is about an hour NW of C'Ville. If this guy was meeting up with Morgan at the concert, I don't think he'd be asking for directions to Harrisonburg before he's even gotten to C'Ville, so I am skeptical that that the guy is somehow involved.

If someone was traveling from Harrisonburg or Roanoke to Cville they would take Exit 118B. Boyd's Taven is further West on Rt. 64 where you would take Exit 124. It seems odd to me that anyone driving on 64 would pass by all of the Charlottesville exits...and then exit on another exit to ask how to get back to where they started from. :waitasec:

If it was someone traveling East - then I could see them asking for directions to Harrisonburg...maybe. But if they were coming to meet MH why would they ask for directions to Harrisonburg and not to JPJ?

If they had met her at JPJ and left her - maybe he got turned around and went the wrong way on 64 and was trying to get back home?

(all of this is ranting and speculation and may not even make sense....I am even confusing myself!)
 
I'm new here and can finally post:newbie:....but, could there be a chance that one of the "friends in Charlottesville" posted the ad on Craigslist for MH? Maybe they weren't a Metallica fan or maybe he/she didn't want to be around her friends or vice versa. There's a possibility that they thought someone in the C'ville area would be more likely to purchase the tickets since it was the day of the concert? This may be far fetched but IDK, there are so many possibilities in this case! I pray she comes home soon or atleast contacts her family if she did in fact run away.

Welcome to Websleuths!!!
:balloons::Welcome-12-june:
 
Cindy- they may have been holding on to the info, let's say, but I saw a posting on the 20th about the slip/fall injury so that meant it wasn't such a great litmus test for valid info...but LE maybe realized it was out there or it became well-known once the media uncovered it. So, if they take everything in and tell everyone to keep there mouths shut, then they can control it. If they don't then they don't have full control over all the info, whether its something already on their infoboard or not.
 
Le singe: help me out here- intitially, LE/parents tate she had no bf and didnt know anyone- ok, then later when they release she was talking to a boy, not from the area: it jogs the memory of the dude who went to Boyd's tavern.

next, maybe LE lets us know she was going to get cigs. then, someone remembers some weird/shifty guy with a brand new Atm card, smelling like girl's perfume, who came into buy cigs, but chose debit , and didnt remember the pin?

sure some things maybe private or arent relevant to the investigation (maybe she called and said she had a bad case of the runs and was gonna look for a more private bathroom).

or say, she had the keys to the car and eventually drove somewhere, something happened and the person drove her car back, but didn't get the parking spot exactly right...that might help someone remember seeing a person in a black 06 honda civic or, didnt the father say accord? driving around a bit lost in the parking area. (and not tryin to remember if they saw a 20yo blond girl in a miniskirt)


Le singe I really don't see how you got all of that out of
Assuming LE both knows best how to effect a rapid, live recovery of a missing person and that they always perform up to reasonable expectation is warranted only when the live recovery rate of index subgroups is high, which it is not for suspiciously missing, attractive 20 YOA females.

i get C6's statement to mean:
as long as LE knows the best way (and they do that every time) to maximize the likelihood of live recovery, then you can expect (something) when the chances of live recovery of this subgroup involved is hi/reasonable/possible (yes, C6's statement can be interpreted to also imply that a 0 chance of recovery cannot be maximized) so i dont see how C6 was wrong. i get the impression you both are saying the same thing...but you just wanted to say
As far as you other example it is incorrect you are making the assumption that
.
alternatively i got : C6 says X+y: you say X, maybe. but wrong on Y, and then go onto basically say Y from another angle.

lol
 
I think the 'and' thing is fine, we all have curiosity we wouldn't come here if we didn't but where curiosity and usefulness or carefulness collide curiosity has to take a back seat.

As far as you other example it is incorrect you are making the assumption that the only factor that effects the "live recovery rate" is the quality of the investigation by law enforcement. This is certainly not the case many factors affect the "live recovery rate" and I think quality of investigation is not even the most important. With 20 YO females they are more likely to be victims of sex crimes than say 60 YO men. After these sex crimes the victim is often kill and dumped quickly this has a huge effect on the "live recovery rate" and has nothing to do with LE one way or the other. If we look at the 60 YO male they would be somewhat more likely to be victims of something with a financial motive therefore there may be value in keeping them alive for longer which would almost surely lead to a higher "live recovery rate" again having nothing to do with what LE did one way or the other. We have seen a number of cases in the last year that suggest that people who abduct children may be somewhat more likely to keep them alive (I would assume this has to do with them being easier to control both physical and mentally i.e. brainwashing them into not constantly trying to escape) so this means with the children sub group live recovery rate will be higher. Even if we are talking about the recovery rate live/or dead similar factors still apply.

You are making the assumption that theoretically in every sub group 100% success rate is possible and so wherever the actual rate falls between 100% and 0% is a matter of how well the investigation is done. This just isn't true as an example if it turns out Morgan is deceased then its highly likely that she was dead prior to even being reported missing in this case live recovery rate is 0 and it is irrelevant what LE does b/c it was decided before they even where involved (just to be clear irrelevant to the live recovery rate obviously not the rate of solving the case).

AMW does not necessarily release any more information than what’s been released in this case. Wouldn’t you agree that AMWs success is based much more on the volume of audience they reach and the large geographic area this audience represents than on the detail level of the information they release? Especially in today’s mobile world where criminals can stay out of sight by simple moving to a different area.

Your correct the recovery rate for 20 YO female is not high, but that’s just as likely (in my opinion much more likely) to do with the challenge of the situation rather than performance of LE.

Certainly I question some things so far in the investigation, but the idea that clearly there

Wouldn’t you agree that AMWs success is based much more on the volume of audience they reach and the large geographic area this audience represents than on the detail level of the information they release?
Definitely. And the stories they release have detail which hooks the audience. My points here are that such detail is lacking and that detail is important to exporting the case to a larger audience. Unfortunately, there's an element of sales in these investigations: People have to be engaged to give tips and to drive the story.

This is certainly not the case many factors affect the "live recovery rate" and I think quality of investigation is not even the most important. With 20 YO females they are more likely to be victims of sex crimes than say 60 YO men. After these sex crimes the victim is often kill and dumped quickly...
Right. The nature of these crimes makes them more difficult to effect a good outcome. That doesn't mean that the outcomes cannot be tremendously improved; a good example is evolution and use of Amber alerts.

We have seen a number of cases in the last year that suggest that people who abduct children may be somewhat more likely to keep them alive (I would assume this has to do with them being easier to control both physical and mentally i.e. brainwashing them into not constantly trying to escape) so this means with the children sub group live recovery rate will be higher

We really don't know how many abducted in the subgroup we are addressing (young late teens - early twenties) are kept alive and for how long (Smart, Duggan, etc). We only know we recover bodies better than live victims. Is this the nature of the crime and criminal, or an effect of our knowledge deficits about these crimes?

You are making the assumption that theoretically in every sub group 100% success rate is possible and so wherever the actual rate falls between 100% and 0% is a matter of how well the investigation is done. This just isn't true .

For the cases where the victim was killed prior to alerting authorities, you are correct. Two points:
  1. Not all victims are so dispatched, and changing the way LE approaches cases like MH's can improve outcomes of getting victims back alive. Young girls and women are such a high-risk group that we may come to treating their disappearnces completely differently from others, such as flooding the public with information immediately (an adult-style Amber alert)
  2. Our interest in these investigations drives their improvement. Putting processes under the public eye has a way of improving the process outcomes. If we demand more disappeared be found alive, we'll get more resources to that result.

Thanks for your excellent examples and thoughtful analysis.

C^
 
Okay... so this is totally unrelated to what has been said thus far...BUT- Why are we not hearing from the FBI? They joined the case shortly after Morgan went missing AND BEFORE it became a criminal investigation. Why are all the reporting and pressers coming from the State Police? I am not insinuating the SP aren't doing a great job...just wondering. It seems odd that the FBI wouldn't be releasing statements instead- but maybe that's just me.

On another note, I ate in Front Royal, VA on Sunday afternoon and was very excited to see Find Morgan flyers at the restaurant. I also saw some this morning on my way in to work. Maybe this case is picking up!! I surely hope so! :woohoo:
 
Did anyone direct her to the box office - Was there an attempt to purchase another concert ticket - Could she have waited in the box office area to stay out of the cold

If she didn't do any of these things - then to me it would appear that she knew she was leaving the arena (possible prior plans)...

But then the "friends" say that she called them and said she couldn't get back in... So that sounds like she didn't intend on leaving the arena

But then the supposed kiss on the cheek - just to go to the restroom or go smoke - seems like "I'm leaving...see you later" kind of thing to me...

WHat bugs me is possible motivation. The ticket person doesnt have a whole lot to gain by lying. Does she? Maybe Im on too little sleep and completely missing something obvious.

The way we came to have these parts about "she was locked out" and/or "she said she'll get a ride OR meet us at the car" is ONLY on the friends' word. (Is that correct?) If so, that's concerns me sort of, especially since we dont have that much solid proof (like a glimpse of MH on a security cam would be nice support of the story for starters)

For the friends part of the story, first that requires the friend to be able to HEAR what was said (unless it was text) and it requires the friend/s to be telling the truth about what was said. IDK. Im guessing unless I missed something that the call log could prove that a call was placed /received on MH's phone, but what was said (or who actually recieved/placed the call, for that matter) are not absolute certainties imo.

Between ticket window employee or friends, who of those could have a motivation to change the truth?

I suppose the arena could instruct employees to say something in particular or false to make the arena "look" good with the implication being that if you dont do or say XYZ then your job is on the line, (but that requires the employee to go along with a deception which is not a sure thing) And wouldn't the employee who'd be more likely marked for telling a false story like that be, for example, a doorman? (instead of a ticket/ box office person?)
 
Okay... so this is totally unrelated to what has been said thus far...BUT- Why are we not hearing from the FBI? They joined the case shortly after Morgan went missing AND BEFORE it became a criminal investigation. Why are all the reporting and pressers coming from the State Police? I am not insinuating the SP aren't doing a great job...just wondering. It seems odd that the FBI wouldn't be releasing statements instead- but maybe that's just me.

On another note, I ate in Front Royal, VA on Sunday afternoon and was very excited to see Find Morgan flyers at the restaurant. I also saw some this morning on my way in to work. Maybe this case is picking up!! I surely hope so! :woohoo:

That's our area...I think we proably put them there. Glad they are still there!! We had a really hard time getting people to let us put up the flyers though. It was very frustrating....
 
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