WA WA - Laura Macke, Hiking Alone @ Enchanted Valley, Camping at Pyrites Creek, 30. Oct 2022

[RickshawFan]

Here's the NPS info for recreation users in the Olympics. It should give an idea of general cautions. (Pretty much what I've said ^^^).

Weather - Olympic National Park (U.S. National Park Service)

www.nps.gov

 

[Tower]

It may just be semantics. A 2-night overnight wilderness permit may be an accurate description. This website refers to where you will camp, so her permit may have been issued with that reference:

Olympic National Park Wilderness Permit, Olympic National Park - Recreation.gov

Explore Olympic National Park Wilderness Permit in Olympic National Park with Recreation.gov. Olympic National Park encompasses nearly a million acres, protects a vast wilderness with thousands of years of human history, and several distinctly different

www.recreation.gov

At least it seems like SAR has a pretty good idea of where she intended to be. Even so, it will be very, very hard to find her in this terrain unfortunately (imo).

 

[Snoopster]

It may just be semantics. A 2-night overnight wilderness permit may be an accurate description. This website refers to where you will camp, so her permit may have been issued with that reference:

Olympic National Park Wilderness Permit, Olympic National Park - Recreation.gov

Explore Olympic National Park Wilderness Permit in Olympic National Park with Recreation.gov. Olympic National Park encompasses nearly a million acres, protects a vast wilderness with thousands of years of human history, and several distinctly different

www.recreation.gov

At least it seems like SAR has a pretty good idea of where she intended to be. Even so, it will be very, very hard to find her in this terrain unfortunately (imo).

Yes, perhaps it was a 2-nighter. That would fit with camping at Pyrites Creek.

 

[RickshawFan]

I don’t think my post adds anything useful, just speculating… The backcountry permits in this area are issued for the number of days (unlike, for example, a hotel reservation for two nights). So if she had a permit for only 2 days, I sure hope SAR understands what her plan was far better than I do. It makes no sense to me.

Oh, okay. I'm sure you're right. I was guessing it went by nights, since you have to reserve a specific camp spot via recreation.gov. I just guessed that was what was meant by "permit". They don't have trailhead permit kiosks there, evidently.
But, yes, I made a wild guess to make sense of the Nov 1 detail.
I don't think you could make it from Pyrites to Enchanted Valley and all the way out in 1 day (it would be over 20 miles) with what should be (for those conditions) at least a 35 lb pack). Or even packless, for that matter. Even if you were super-trained and could do it, the risk of the last leg being in the dark would be very high. Average speed rule-of-thumb is 2 miles per hour. You'd be hiking for over 10 hours? Not me!
And LM may not even have made it to Pyrites the first night, because she was driving to the trailhead in pouring rain. Then, she's gotta hike 9-ish miles and pitch the tent before dark?

 

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[Snoopster]

Oh, okay. I'm sure you're right. I was guessing it went by nights, since you have to reserve a specific camp spot via recreation.gov. I just guessed that was what was meant by "permit". They don't have trailhead permit kiosks there, evidently.
But, yes, I made a wild guess to make sense of the Nov 1 detail.
I don't think you could make it from Pyrites to Enchanted Valley and all the way out in 1 day (it would be over 30 miles) with what should be (for those conditions) at least a 35 lb pack). Or even packless, for that matter. Even if you were super-trained and could do it, the risk of the last leg being in the dark would be very high. Average speed rule-of-thumb is 2 miles per hour. You'd be hiking for over 15 hoAs urs? Not me!

I see that some people did an out and back with just one night camping, but as you pointed out, that would be a long hike if you were stopping at Pyrites Creek for the first night and carrying camping gear. A plan to stay 2 nights makes more sense to me if you are staying at Pyrites Creek.

 

[RickshawFan]

See my reply to Rickshaw. It does vary depending on the area, but the permit I got in this area in 2018 was issued for days, so if her plan was to take 3 days, it seems like this information doesn’t match her 2-day permit for some reason.

It seems to me that's how it used to be, too. You'd get the permit at the trailhead kiosk, even.
But National Parks have gone to recreation.gov for a lot of things very recently. Even at the small NP where I volunteer, the rangers don't do any reservations any more for tours or special events. It's all recreation.gov.

 

[RickshawFan]

I see that some people did an out and back with just one night camping, but as you pointed out, that would be a long hike if you were stopping at Pyrites Creek for the first night and carrying camping gear. A plan to stay 2 nights makes more sense to me if you are staying at Pyrites Creek.

My fear is, LM dropped her pack at Pyrites to go for what she thought would be a quickie day hike to Enchanted Valley in a narrow weather window. This would be a disaster, as she'd have ZERO recourse in pouring rain. In fact, she might have returned to Pyrites and found all her gear had been swept downstream.
There's gotta be a reason SAR hasn't found her tent....

 

[Tower]

It seems to me that's how it used to be, too. You'd get the permit at the trailhead kiosk, even.
But National Parks have gone to recreation.gov for a lot of things very recently.

Yes, you’re very right. It’s been over 4 years since I was there plus everything we’ve done in the past 6 months has been issued differently since COVID. Much more online. Moo

 

[RickshawFan]

It may just be semantics. A 2-night overnight wilderness permit may be an accurate description. This website refers to where you will camp, so her permit may have been issued with that reference:

Olympic National Park Wilderness Permit, Olympic National Park - Recreation.gov

Explore Olympic National Park Wilderness Permit in Olympic National Park with Recreation.gov. Olympic National Park encompasses nearly a million acres, protects a vast wilderness with thousands of years of human history, and several distinctly different

www.recreation.gov

At least it seems like SAR has a pretty good idea of where she intended to be. Even so, it will be very, very hard to find her in this terrain unfortunately (imo).

Especially if she tried to go to higher ground, perhaps (if she had her pack with her) overshooting EV and going up another trail.
I think EV would be extremely wet (it's known for waterfalls), so you wouldn't want to linger there.

 

[RickshawFan]

I wonder if LM knew enough to take rain pants? A very high quality rain jacket, either new or with recently restored DWR? Waterproof hiking boots and significant socks?
After being in the PNW for years, and used to well-stocked day packs, I got shocked when I went to VT, and people don't carry rain gear at all, not even just in case. And rain pants are mostly used for snow, or because a group leader says they have to have them, or they're taking a cruise to AK, or something like that.
People are out there in VT for all-day hikes with 9 liter packs and calling it "prepared". I get so shocked. Anyway, this case with a VT hiker lost in the Olympics makes me think there might be some crucial gear essentials missing, that would gobsmack anyone with experience in the Cascades, Sierras, or coastal ranges (not to mention CO), especially significant, high quality, raingear.
NPS hasn't said how long ago the permit was purchased. Maybe this whole trip was on a whim, and LM didn't have the necessaries with her?
So many questions....

 

[RickshawFan]

It rained 8"-10" the first day LM was out there. Current forecast 2"-10" snow above 2,000 feet in Olympics, including Quinault (per NOAA, link below). This is a normal weather pattern after the "weather comes in" in Cascades and Olympics late September (it can be like this in summer, too, but just for a few days).
PNW-ers know not to mess around when the "weather comes in". I was in the dry area of the Olympics (camping in Port Townsend) 5 years ago. I knew enough to leave the moment "weather" came in in September (maybe the 24th or so).
When snow settles in for the winter (e.g. December/January), snow sports begin in the Olympics, as elsewhere in the PNW, with careful watching of forecast.
Quinault is a rainforest (i.e. a magnet for rain) and is right near the ocean. It is predictably very wet.

LM drove to Quinault in driving rain, (per NPS, link below). As I understand it, this was a 3-day trip, with 2 nights camping, beginning on October 30 (which would have been a partial day owing to driving to the trailhead), and exiting on November 1. As far as I can tell, a common trip is to camp at Pyrites on Night 1, day hike to the Enchanted Valley and back on Day 2, and hike out on Day 3. This mileage makes sense to me for a 3-day trip.

Search parties were unable to go out on Friday because the whole area was flooded and there were a lot of downed trees. Search services were withdrawn or unable to go out several days in a row (Wednesday and Thursday) because it was unsafe.
There are several log bridges along this trail. The camp spots are riverside. The odds of slipping and ending up in the water were colossal on this trip IMO, while crossing a bridge, fording a creek, or filtering water. Alternatively, the tent and everything could have been washed downstream if LM was camped on a riverbank.
NPS haven't reported being concerned for anyone else, so I imagine there was no one else out there on the trail.
Hope this helps. I hiked and backpacked for 25 years in the PNW, and have been to the Olympics twice, including the Quinault area.

Search underway for missing hiker Laura Macke - Olympic National Park (U.S. National Park Service)

www.nps.gov

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

The National Weather Service is your best source for complete weather forecast and weather related information on the web!

forecast.weather.gov

I made an error here. Correction. In my experience, “weather comes in” in the PNW in late-ish October, not September. I left Port Townsend 5 years ago in the 2nd week of October when weather was coming in, not September.
Halloween is substantially too late for backpacking in the Cascades, Sierras, coast. In VT, too, unless climate change gives you a warm, dry, few days.

I was on a 10-day backpacking trip over Labor Day In King’s Canyon/Sequoia. We had 3 blizzards. So, yeah, gotta be prepared for weather…

 

[Springrain]

I'm from WA. Olympic National Park has had a lot of people go missing in it the past decade and I'm sure before. Absolutely beautiful park and one of my favorite places on Earth, genuinely - but it can be a very treacherous place. With a place like Olympic National Park it is SO easy to accidentally get into danger. It is also very vast and hard to locate people in.

 

[Springrain]

I wonder if LM knew enough to take rain pants? A very high quality rain jacket, either new or with recently restored DWR? Waterproof hiking boots and significant socks?
After being in the PNW for years, and used to well-stocked day packs, I got shocked when I went to VT, and people don't carry rain gear at all, not even just in case. And rain pants are mostly used for snow, or because a group leader says they have to have them, or they're taking a cruise to AK, or something like that.
People are out there in VT for all-day hikes with 9 liter packs and calling it "prepared". I get so shocked. Anyway, this case with a VT hiker lost in the Olympics makes me think there might be some crucial gear essentials missing, that would gobsmack anyone with experience in the Cascades, Sierras, or coastal ranges (not to mention CO), especially significant, high quality, raingear.
NPS hasn't said how long ago the permit was purchased. Maybe this whole trip was on a whim, and LM didn't have the necessaries with her?
So many questions....

I totally didn't know Laura was from Vermont. I've lived in WA most of my life, but I did spend most of my childhood in Vermont. Weird coincidence I guess! In Vermont the concern is much more for snow and bitter cold, rather than rain. I can't speak to camping because, as much as I LOVE Olympic National Park, I always stay in some sort of lodging when I'm there...I'm not a camper, lol. I think it is easy to underestimate the Olympics and how vast they are. I can imagine lacking supplies being a huge potential problem. Although I can't specifically speak to that. JMO.

 

[Charlot123]

I'm from WA. Olympic National Park has had a lot of people go missing in it the past decade and I'm sure before. Absolutely beautiful park and one of my favorite places on Earth, genuinely - but it can be a very treacherous place. With a place like Olympic National Park it is SO easy to accidentally get into danger. It is also very vast and hard to locate people in.

I made a mental note of it, too. I think some people disappear due to natural reasons (getting lost, disaster), but the area might be also someone’s lair. Donna Van Zandt, whose abandoned car was found in Quinault, not sure her disappearance was an accident.

ETA. The storm on the night of 11/5-11/6 was brutal. Major power outages all over WA, which did not help.

 

[Springrain]

I made a mental note of it, too. I think some people disappear due to natural reasons (getting lost, disaster), but the area might be also someone’s lair. Donna Van Zandt, whose abandoned car was found in Quinault, not sure her disappearance was an accident.

ETA. The storm on the night of 11/5-11/6 was brutal. Major power outages all over WA, which did not help.

With how the weather has been I have to wonder if there's a chance that she was trying to find her way back and lost cell reception and she got more lost and/or an accident happened and she either can't communicate or died. Power, cell reception and wifi have all been spotty across the western part of the state the last few days...We are lucky that we don't get blizzards or true snow storms, but the storming and flooding is frustrating.

 

[RickshawFan]

I totally didn't know Laura was from Vermont. I've lived in WA most of my life, but I did spend most of my childhood in Vermont. Weird coincidence I guess! In Vermont the concern is much more for snow and bitter cold, rather than rain. I can't speak to camping because, as much as I LOVE Olympic National Park, I always stay in some sort of lodging when I'm there...I'm not a camper, lol. I think it is easy to underestimate the Olympics and how vast they are. I can imagine lacking supplies being a huge potential problem. Although I can't specifically speak to that. JMO.

VT trails are annoyingly difficult underfoot (they weren’t designed with a good tread and gentle rises like trails out west, and there are a lotta rocks), but everything is close to a town compared to WA. Houses everywhere, dirt roads everywhere. There’s no wilderness. You could get lost out there, but this IMO is more likely on someone’s acreage than on a trail. And the number of people on the trails: they come from Boston, etc.
VT hiking makes me very sad…..

And, as I say, people out in VT with no precautions in their packs. SAR posts their activity (NH—much more dangerous—LE does this publicly in the newsmedia, too), and almost always describes what the hiker did wrong. Top of the list: no preparation for contingencies.

I wonder if LM even knew to take long underwear, hat, and gloves for any kind of hike in the PNW? When it’s 45 degrees and wet, you’d be using it all.

 

[RickshawFan]

With how the weather has been I have to wonder if there's a chance that she was trying to find her way back and lost cell reception and she got more lost and/or an accident happened and she either can't communicate or died. Power, cell reception and wifi have all been spotty across the western part of the state the last few days...We are lucky that we don't get blizzards or true snow storms, but the storming and flooding is frustrating.

I doubt there’s cell service where LM was hiking, even in good weather. Savvy hikers carry PLB’s for this kind of area, but it was pouring rain and densely foggy (as is the way with rainforests), so I doubt even a PLB would have been useful, as it requires clear visual to satellites.

FWIW the new iphone 14 evidently has satellite capabilities. This will be a huge game changer for the backcountry IMO. “Hey Siri, call 911.”
I hike within cell service these days (east coast, alas), but use an AppleWatch for fall detection. One little slip, and Siri’s checking in with me. Made me feel alot safer, ‘cos we can have frosty rocks on trails. (PS you don’t even need to have cell service directly to your watch; you only need your phone nearby). Such a new world!

 

[RickshawFan]

I made a mental note of it, too. I think some people disappear due to natural reasons (getting lost, disaster), but the area might be also someone’s lair. Donna Van Zandt, whose abandoned car was found in Quinault, not sure her disappearance was an accident.

ETA. The storm on the night of 11/5-11/6 was brutal. Major power outages all over WA, which did not help.

Donna Van Zandt was off my radar. Time to investigate!

 

[RickshawFan]

I totally didn't know Laura was from Vermont. I've lived in WA most of my life, but I did spend most of my childhood in Vermont. Weird coincidence I guess! In Vermont the concern is much more for snow and bitter cold, rather than rain. I can't speak to camping because, as much as I LOVE Olympic National Park, I always stay in some sort of lodging when I'm there...I'm not a camper, lol. I think it is easy to underestimate the Olympics and how vast they are. I can imagine lacking supplies being a huge potential problem. Although I can't specifically speak to that. JMO.

Even getting to hiking trailheads in the Olympics can be a major trip. The west coast of that peninsula is so vacant.