Working Theories Thread

[TrialAddict]

I have no idea yet how my theory will play out, but I am convinced if assumption he was going to go to his mothers THAT day is true then I believe whatever happen to him was planned.

 

[mommya]

Well - part of my theory is that they have a solid POI - who they are convinced won't do any harm to anyone else.

 

[ci2i]

I go back and forth between three theories:

1. I often wonder if the pic posted of him holding a soccer ball and the pic of the janitor walking down the stairs, and the view outside the window overlooking the soccer field was posted for a reason.

2. Or, he is still inside that school and someone knows ALL the nooks and crannies in there.

3. Kyron could have been trying to be helpful in trying to let someone from the outside, in. I have two boys 7 and 8. When I asked them this question, one of my boys said "they'd get in trouble for leaving the building or letting someone in" and wouldn't do it but the other said he'd be helpful and let them in even though they are told NOT TO. This little boy is bright, quiet and shy, helpful and doesn't like to hurt anyone's feelings and he gave me the answer I was afraid he'd give.

 

[tehcloser]

I think my theory is starting to revolve around a possible jealously issue. And that's about all I can say....lol.

*eta.....does NOT involve a minor.

 

[Annazed]

... he says, he does not want to stay at school, and SM says honey you have to stay at school you will be fine, so she gets in the car and is in a hurry (maybe in a hurry for a appointment she may have told the teacher about, but it was her appointment not anything to do with Kyron, Appointment has NEVER BEEN VERIFIED to my knowledge) so she does not wait to make sure he goes back to the school. (If this happened just think how sick she would feel.)

I think that your theories make a lot of sense, except I don't understand why SM would lie about this last part (the guilt you think?) and say instead that she left him in the hall.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Many people on this board with perp theories seem to be ignoring this. Unless it is not true that LE has indicated that this is an isolated incident (I don't have first hand knowledge of them saying it - just many different sources reporting it), why would you think that a sex offender is out there free right now?

I'm leaning towards a non-family member as the perpetrator but not convinced.

I'm not ignoring that LE said this is an isolated incident but I may be interpreting the phrase "isolated incident" more narrowly than you are.

I believe that LE means that they believe that there will not be another child abducted from that particular school before the end of the school year. I'm not aware of a single case where a child was abducted from an elementary school where there was a second case of abduction from that school within weeks of the first. Not one case.

In the past, LE has been mistaken about whether a specific crime was an isolated one or not. Saying it is an isolated case seems to me to be an educated guess rather than a matter of certainty.

For example, in the Elizabeth Smart case, two weeks after Elizabeth was abducted a screen in her cousin's house was slashed. I clearly remember LE saying they did not think that the two events were related. I also remember that when Ed Smart kept mentioning that incident, many people took it as an indication that he was trying to cast doubt to cover up his own guilt or his knowledge of the guilt of a family member.

Now we know that yes, Brian Mitchell did cut that screen and did intend to abduct the cousin. LE was wrong. Ed Smart wasn't trying to cover up his own guilt, there was indeed a connection.

In the Johnny Gosch case, LE said his disappearance was an isolated case. The newspaper continued to use young teenagers to deliver their papers based on that assurance. Two years later, Eugene Martin disappeared under virtually identical circumstances. Neither case has been solved but it seems highly likely that they were related (and that newspaper no longer employs young carriers).

 

[Kimster]

I'm going to put my foot down regarding theories involving minors. A general "an older student at the school like in the Elizabeth Olten case" is okay, but pointing a finger at one minor in particular isn't going to fly.

If this thread becomes one where a mod has to be here 24/7, I can't leave it open. I know we have theories that cannot be posted here due to our guidelines in place at this time. As more information is released, you will find us loosening those guidelines.

 

[cakegirl0905]

All I know for sure was that it was someone he knew and trusted. That's all.

 

[BrendaStar]

The only conclusion I can come to is that the little guy went off with someone that he knew. They should interview everyone that was at that Science Fair.

This case just breaks my heart.

 

[Garden Variety]

The best theory at this point is based on what LE has said so far...that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. Think about that for a minute and let it sink in. You can only come to one serious conclusion at that point. It seems like they are waiting for more evidence and a body before an arrest is made.

Bingo.

So here's what I'm theorizing.....

1. LE has said virtually nothing substantive for public consumption aside from asserting that it was an isolated event and no stranger danger. If one takes those assertions at face value, the logical conclusion is that LE had evidence that the perp was known to the victim. Just HOW they came to that conclusion we would all like to know. But it seems to me that since school was back in session the following Monday with no additional security measures, police presence, armed guards, survellience camera installation, new sign-in, sign-out procedures, or anything of that nature, that LE knew they were not dealing with a random, opportunistic psychopath.

2. I think this also tells us that this was not a kidnapping for ransom. No ransom demand has been made, as far as we know. Additionally, I don't know what the statistics would show, but my guess is that kidnappings for ransom in this country are far rarer than kidnapping for more nefarious purposes and motivations. Perhaps Patsy Ramsey, if she were still alive, could have been instructive to us in these matters.

2. Recall that Kyron was styled at least for public consumption, a "Missing/Endangered" child until a couple of days ago when the case became a "Criminal Investigation". I find that quite odd.

3. It strikes me that the case of ANY 7 year old who has gone missing from school under the limited facts that have been fed to us would immediately be investigated under the worst case senario principle--that of a criminal investigation. If your 7 year old turned up missing from school would you consider them "Missing/Endangered"? "Missing/Endangered" for more than 10 days? No way. So why did LE continue to suggest to the public, through Press Conferences and Billboards, that Kyron was "Missing/Endangered". Did this "description" of the case allow them to follow and collect evidence that they might not have been able to aquire if the public thought this was a criminal investigation?

4. I, too, believe, that LE has a POI, and that a case is easier to prosecute with a body than without. (I'm so sorry to have written that.)

5. If LE believed that Kyron had left the school of his own volition and then met a bad end, his body would have been found by now.

6. The cat and mouse game is on.

7. And finally, if any of you have been following the Aubrey Sacco case--that of the 23 year old Colorado woman who is missing from a trek in Nepal--I found the following assessment of that case from a profiler to be absolutely fascinating. And I think a number of analogies can be drawn to Kyron's case.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/ar...cco_missing_american_in_nepal_pg4.html?cat=17

 

[Whome?]

I am no sleuther,but this case just breaks my heart,but I
find two things interesting and strange in this case.

I think whoever the person/persons were,were familiar with the
lay-out,security of the school.To have a school in this day and
age that has NO SECURITY CAMERAS is strange to me.This person
knew that.

I find it strange that family has not wanted to appear in public,
possibly if they were shown to the media,someone may put two
and two together,regarding their whereabouts that day,I watched
a brief clip of family at Vigil,it appears they were sitting in the
back of church together,instead of up-front I don't understand
that.This is their child. Not bashing family,just don't understand.

moo

 

[JBean]

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[indicat]

Bingo.

So here's what I'm theorizing.....

1. LE has said virtually nothing substantive for public consumption aside from asserting that it was an isolated event and no stranger danger. If one takes those assertions at face value, the logical conclusion is that LE had evidence that the perp was known to the victim. Just HOW they came to that conclusion we would all like to know. But it seems to me that since school was back in session the following Monday with no additional security measures, police presence, armed guards, survellience camera installation, new sign-in, sign-out procedures, or anything of that nature, that LE knew they were not dealing with a random, opportunistic psychopath.

2. I think this also tells us that this was not a kidnapping for ransom. No ransom demand has been made, as far as we know. Additionally, I don't know what the statistics would show, but my guess is that kidnappings for ransom in this country are far rarer than kidnapping for more nefarious purposes and motivations. Perhaps Patsy Ramsey, if she were still alive, could have been instructive to us in these matters.

2. Recall that Kyron was styled at least for public consumption, a "Missing/Endangered" child until a couple of days ago when the case became a "Criminal Investigation". I find that quite odd.

3. It strikes me that the case of ANY 7 year old who has gone missing from school under the limited facts that have been fed to us would immediately be investigated under the worst case senario principle--that of a criminal investigation. If your 7 year old turned up missing from school would you consider them "Missing/Endangered"? "Missing/Endangered" for more than 10 days? No way. So why did LE continue to suggest to the public, through Press Conferences and Billboards, that Kyron was "Missing/Endangered". Did this "description" of the case allow them to follow and collect evidence that they might not have been able to aquire if the public thought this was a criminal investigation?

4. I, too, believe, that LE has a POI, and that a case is easier to prosecute with a body than without. (I'm so sorry to have written that.)

5. If LE believed that Kyron had left the school of his own volition and then met a bad end, his body would have been found by now.

6. The cat and mouse game is on.

7. And finally, if any of you have been following the Aubrey Sacco case--that of the 23 year old Colorado woman who is missing from a trek in Nepal--I found the following assessment of that case from a profiler to be absolutely fascinating. And I think a number of analogies can be drawn to Kyron's case.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/ar...cco_missing_american_in_nepal_pg4.html?cat=17

If I could ever get my thoughts out in a post the way they sound in my head, this is what it would read, Thank You!

 

[RubyRed]

• Check and look along road sides, back roads, fields, dump areas that you may know about in the county or in the towns or areas you drive to or live near. These may be areas that you routinely drive, walk, run, jog, etc. Check any ditches or areas that are typically hard to see when driving by at high speeds. Other potential areas to check are under bridges, in abandoned barns or structures that are not normally occupied, abandoned vehicles, etc.
  
  
• If you notice a suspicious odor in an area, or see activities in or around abandoned homes or property; if you happen to see circling birds or gathering predators, like coyotes in or around an area, check it out to see if it is safe, or contact the local law enforcement agency near you to have it checked out.
  
  
• If you own property that is not currently occupied, check it out to make sure it is still secure and that everything inside is in order and as you expect it to be. If you know your neighbor is not home and you have permission to go on their property, check for any broken windows, doors, or suspicious activity or things that may appear out of place to you.
  
  
• If you live in a rural area and know your neighbors are gone for extended periods of time, drive by those areas and make note of any unusual cars, vehicles or things that appear out of place and are not consistent with what you are familiar with.
  
  
• If you live near an empty home or building, watch for any suspicious activity or unusual people or vehicles in or around the structure that are not normally there.
  
  
• Do NOT go in any buildings or homes that you do not own or trespass on private property, to search any areas.
  
  
• If you see or suspect anything suspicious, do not attempt to pick it up, touch it or contaminate the immediate surrounding areas. If you leave the area before authorities arrive try to leave the same way you came in so other potential items are not disturbed or contaminated.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/23051506/detail.html



ETA part deux: Well, I wasn't wrong, I guess. Just had these lists combined into one in my mind. (I'm old! leave me alone!)

the FBI's Behavioral Analysis Unit gave several tips about what to watch for:

»People who come up with an excuse to leave this area unexpectedly for what may sound like a good reason, such as a work-related move, visiting a distant relative or friend.

»People who have missed work, called in sick, or asked to change shifts, particularly on days close to when the girl went missing.

»People with unexplained recent injuries, such as cuts or bruises on the head, hands or arms.

»An unexpected or sudden interest in the status of the investigation, paying very close attention to the media or avoiding conversations or activities related to the case.

»Minimizing or denying a known acquaintance with Kayleah.

»A recent display of nervousness or irritability.

»An increase or decrease in expressing religious beliefs.

»Changes in routine sleep patterns.

»Changes in the “usual” consumption of alcohol, drugs or cigarettes, either an increase or decrease.

»Shaving off facial or head hair, or growing a mustache or beard.

»A person who is no longer driving, or changes the appearance of his or her vehicle for no obvious reason. These include suddenly keeping it in a shed or garage, covering it, painting or selling the vehicle, or reporting it was stolen or given away.


http://www.greeleytribune.com/article/20100416/NEWS/100419759

sbbm

I think those are excellent tips on things to watch for. A perp always changes their routine on the day the incident happened or the very next day.

 

[JBean]

If you are leaning towards a family member, feel free to post your thoughts and opinions civilly and respectfully. How did you arrive at this? statistics? gut? information? If it emotionally based on the way someone looks leave it off the board LOL.

I don't have enough info to create a good working theory right now, so interested in what all of you have to say from all perspectives.

 

[human]

My question is-why did LE not give all or any of the things to watch for that Calliope has mentioned and requoted in post 94?

The lack of that kind of information and the lack of a profile really impact my thoughts.

As far as not clearing the family, people have mentioned other cases where no one in the family was the perp.

We do not know that in any of those cases, that LE was not able to clear the family because there were inconsistencies that meant that LE could not clear them.

I just turned out that the perp was someone else.

 

[Angel4u2Whisper2]

Respectfully, I submited the above theory I wrote the theory based on what I have observed of the SM. Why? Yes, I know that everyone is different they respond and behave differently with tons of variables. The collection of those things paints a picture (in a sense) this picture then is seen like a story or feeling. For me it is almost like a what one may feel walking through an art gallery and one of the paintings take your breathe away! You know that it telling you something. That something is what I base my theory on.

 

[Wendy101]

I have no idea yet how my theory will play out, but I am convinced it has something to do with the fact he was going to go to his mothers THAT day. I do believe it was planned.

In one of my theories that is WHY it happened that day.

 

[Angel4u2Whisper2]

IMO, There are disorders that can cause an individual (male or female) to seem unbalanced. Sometimes they are undiagnosed personality disorders and the behaviors also can be misunderstood or easily explained away by those who know the person.

It happens more so IMOO when the individual isn't carrying around a "label" from the DSM, people may see something is off even though behaviors can be hidden for sometime.

 

[BeanE]

I have no idea yet how my theory will play out, but I am convinced it has something to do with the fact he was going to go to his mothers THAT day. I do believe it was planned.

Hi Clown. Can you please share the link to the source you confirmed that Kyron was going to his biomom's that day? We're trying to see what we can confirm on this in another thread specifically on this topic.

If you'll please post the link, I'll make sure it gets over to the other thread.

Thanks,
BeanE
Mod