Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[steelo]

Where exactly is the weir as it isn't too clear on Google maps?
Is it possible that the tidal flow has caused back-flow along a tributary or storm channel leading into the Wyre?

 

[hedgetog]

I keep coming back to the lack of independent witnesses between 9:10 and the arrival of the police.

I do find this strange as well, it seems a long time period for no one to seemingly walk past what doesn't seem to be a hugely desolate area, especially as the bench is near the gate. Perhaps there has been and it hasn't been released, or maybe people didn't notice willow at the time? The phone was found though wasn't it after the 0910 sighting of NB?
<modsnip - quoted post was snipped>

Rightly so though because we don't have all of the information, the police will apply the due diligence they deem necessary to ascertain how credible a witness is, and probably most who dispute information the police have released (important to remember its likely not the whole statement and that missing context could be important) is because it doesn't fit their theory. The police have requested people don't as well- just my view.

<both quotes snipped by me for focus>

 

[philthesaddler]

With regards to whether NB might have made it over the weir, and therefore potentially out to sea, I wanted to have a look at what the tide was doing at the relevant time. According to the tide times, the tide at Fleetwood (which is the end of the estuary where the Wyre meets the sea) was at its lowest almost exactly at the time NB is feared to have entered the water up at St Michaels.

Had she crossed the weir, the water on the other side will therefore have been at it's lowest (which does reduce, but not eliminate) the chance that NB will have been able to have had a straight/fast route out to sea because that (tidal) stretch of the river does get very low at low tide with plenty of mud flats etc.

More importantly I think though is that if the tide was at its lowest at Fleetwood at around 9.30am on the Friday 27th, this means that it will have been coming IN for most of the duration of the day (up until its high again at 3.30pm). In other words, well into the search operation, the tide was coming in at all points beyond the weir.

I live by the Thames in London (admittedly a much bigger river), but when the tide is coming in, tidal rivers effectively flow in the opposite direction - sometimes the effect is so large you can even see it on bouys or anchored boats. All this to say, if NB was past the weir, IMO, it is exceptionally unlikely that she would have gone very far, at least until the turn of the tide again at 3.30pm that evening.

Edited to add that this is all in my opinion.

Agree.

My thoughts are that if she was in the river, and made it over the weir (highly unlikely IMO) then the progress of the body wouldn’t have been straight forward because of the tidal flow reversing. She’d more likely become lodged somewhere IMO.

Also - I’ve seen references to the section of river above the weir being fast flowing, although it might have been a typo. I’d have thought the river directly above a weir was slow flowing, after all, the weir effectively creates a dam which allows a little water over, thus slowing the flow, but making for a deeper pooling effect

 

[kittythehare]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623267514464477187

Access Restricted

Police extend search for Nicola Bulley towards the sea

Heather Gibbons has joined Ms Bulley's family and friends in questioning Lancashire Police's theory that she may have fallen into the River Wyre while walking her dog on January 27.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I just put them all in the same post because I'm tired ..

 

[Karin1974]

The police are so adamant she’s in the water, it makes me rethink my stance. They must have a reason to be so sure.

IMO I think so too & I don’t like to harp on & I know it’s been said that her Fitbit wasn’t synched (Is that even a word?) but the data is still ‘somewhere’. This is the only thing I can think of that would have precise heartbeat data that can be accessed & the police are leading us to believe she definitely went into the water. Although, I’m still not yet convinced of this myself. MOO

 

[WestLondoner]

I find the behaviour of finding a dog alone, near an abandoned phone and harness/leash very odd. I think most would hang around or look around for the owner to ensure the dogs safety - especially if they were a local and/or recognised the dog. Most certainly wouldn’t merrily walk off.

When was the last time you yourself hung around (or tried to hang around) a dog on its own, to ensure its safety? Never, am I right? Exactly

 

[Mycroft42]

Timeline of events 7 days after dog walker Nicola Bulley mysteriously vanished

The mortgage adviser Nicola Bulley, 45, had dropped her two young girls off at school before taking her brown spaniel Willow for a walk along the River Wyre in the village of St Michael's, Lancashire

www.mirror.co.uk

Interesting - the 9:10 witness (though in a linked article the Mirror says it was 9:20) says there were 3 people in the upper field including himself, and one assumes NB. Who was the other person?

 

[ayrshireguy]

Where exactly is the weir as it isn't too clear on Google maps?
Is it possible that the tidal flow has caused back-flow along a tributary or storm channel leading into the Wyre?

Wouldn't hurt if SGI sent their sonar up the Calder River.

 

[suzyjackson]

Still more likely an abduction that a fatal accident IMO.

I keep coming back to the lack of independent witnesses between 9:10 and the arrival of the police.

I wonder if the police have witnesses who saw nothing - they were beside the river around that time but didn’t see the dog. It’s quite possible, and it doesn’t make or break any theories, but I’d be surprised if no one else walked along that wall between 9:10 and ~10am.

Does no one else find it a bit strange?

People on here talk (and the police) seem to think the 9:10-9:20am period is crucial - but surely the period is longer than that? People seem to be dismissing other possibilities because of there only being 10mins for a would-be abductor to abduct her.

<modsnip - off limits>

it’s a popular dog walking route - areas like that near where I live have people passing through every few minutes.

I find the behaviour of finding a dog alone, near an abandoned phone and harness/leash very odd. I think most would hang around or look around for the owner to ensure the dogs safety - especially if they were a local and/or recognised the dog. Most certainly wouldn’t merrily walk off.

<modsnip - off limits>

This illustrates the diffeence in personal experience, there are river side walks near me that would be described as popular but also totally normal to walk wihout seeing another person for quite some time

I'm not saying anything about the first person who found the dog but not everyone is public spirited or bothered about other people. The natural assumption on finding a loose dog surely is just that the owner is elsewhere and after waiting a few minutes it's a sensible move given the lead /harness are there to tie it up for safekeeping

Reading all of the craziness online about this case is enough to make a person never get involved with anything the slightest bit out of the ordinary (craziness on othet websites that is)

JMO

 

[DFR3217]

If NB had been attacked, unless it involved the river, a body would have been found by now, I'd guess, but an abduction would be very hard, and, if the bench is the area closest to where whatever happened happened, as seems likely, it could only really involve the area around Allotment Lane, Wyreside Farm caravan park, and The Oaks, so I can understand the police not wanting to explore in an aggressive way the possibility of this, because of how disruptive it would be to that community, especially if it turned out NB actually had fallen in the river. Difficult decisions to make, but...... Anyway JMO.

 

[philthesaddler]

When was the last time you yourself hung around (or tried to hang around) a dog on its own, to ensure its safety? Never, am I right? Exactly

Quite frequently when walking my dog, you see a dog that is well away from its owner, so much that you wonder where the owner is. In situations like that, yes, I do hang around if the owner can’t be seen. Usually they come in to view shortly afterwards.

 

[ginnyw]

Ok I think I understand the implications… perhaps there were some deleted searches on the phone (or other device) which have taken a while to recover.

Sadly, suicide is also all too common. I am the same age as NB and 1 friend/ 2 acquaintances have taken their own lives. Really tragic and in all cases the spouse had no idea it was coming, but perhaps only with hindsight they unpicked some clues. The latter two were middle aged women, mothers, intelligent, beautiful and seemingly lived wonderful lives. It is so sad.

Not saying that is what has happened here but I am sure this will be a theory the police will explore.

It's crossed my mind, but I feel that it would be a strange thing to log onto a work call if you were about to end your life. Plus there were witnesses who referred to her 'laughing and joking' a few minutes beforehand and the text sent to a friend to arrange a playdate for the girls. None of this really implies somebody who was suicidal IMO. I did however think that in those grainy CCTV images NG appeared thin, a bit gaunt even. JMO. I'm wondering about ill-health. But even then, it would be incredibly unlucky for a young woman to a) suddenly keel over and b) just happen to keel over on a steep river bank. MOO. As ever, nothing seems clear in the slightest and it's just the most horrible situation.

 

[tedtink]

Nicola Bulley search specialist on river stretch: 'She is not there'

Peter Faulding, the head of a specialist search team, has ruled out the section where it is believed the missing mother-of-two fell in

www.telegraph.co.uk

Nicola Bulley search specialist on river stretch: 'She is not there'​

Peter Faulding, the head of a specialist search team, has ruled out the section where it is believed the missing mother-of-two fell in

 

[jackal67]

I dont think the lack of witnesses is strange, a river bank on a cold January morning isnt going to be bustling with passers by

<modsnip - quoted post was snipped>

JMO

yes I agree

 

[kittythehare]

Access Restricted

map in this article is excellent!

 

[Miss_French]

I find the behaviour of finding a dog alone, near an abandoned phone and harness/leash very odd. I think most would hang around or look around for the owner to ensure the dogs safety - especially if they were a local and/or recognised the dog. Most certainly wouldn’t merrily walk off.

Add in the fact that this is the person to find the leash/harness and phone - and it all seems very odd IMO. I’m not saying this lady is guilty of anything, just saying as a sleuth, I’d want to know if anyone could corroborate this account in any way - for example, did someone pass shortly after or shortly before and see the dog also? Where was this lady going, and where had she been?

She didn't have time to wait around:

"The dog looked worried so I tied her up and rushed home as I had to go to an appointment."

'Worried' passer-by raised alarm after finding Nicola Bulley's dog

The search for the missing mum-of-two is entering it's seventh day as friends and family appeal for information.

www.express.co.uk

How is it odd that this lady found the phone and harness? As opposed to anyone else finding it?

 

[GTB72]

I saw Blay Brook tunnel/pipe mentioned on SM by a local but can’t find any evidence on google - better sleuther might be able to find it quicker?

Blay brook is further east and upstream of Rowanwater Caravan Park.

 

[shadwell]

Where exactly is the weir as it isn't too clear on Google maps?
Is it possible that the tidal flow has caused back-flow along a tributary or storm channel leading into the Wyre?

The weir is about 350m downstream of the bench.

53°51'49.1"N 2°49'04.3"W

maps.app.goo.gl

 

[suzyjackson]

Quite frequently when walking my dog, you see a dog that is well away from its owner, so much that you wonder where the owner is. In situations like that, yes, I do hang around if the owner can’t be seen. Usually they come in to view shortly afterwards.

You're a nice person, believe me lots of people would carry on merrily by

 

[Markepson]

This was posted by Lancs police 4 days ago on fb and this is the statement attached with her movements
We wanted to give you an update on the search for Nicola Bulley and to give you some more detail on what we have been doing to try and find her.

It’s now a week since the mum of two went missing and since last Friday we have been carrying out extensive searches in the area along with many other enquiries in the background.

This work has included
• Extensive and thorough searches of the river and footpaths by specialist police search teams and partner agencies including HM Coastguard, mountain rescue and Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service. Resources have included specialist search dogs, drone, police helicopter and divers. These searches are continuing.
• A team of detectives working behind the scenes analysing telephony, house to house, CCTV, dashcam and carrying out other digital enquiries and examining information coming into the inquiry
• Several public appeals for information and to trace witnesses. Key witnesses have all now been traced. We are grateful to the media for all their coverage and to the community for their help, information and support.

Based on all the work we have done so far, we are now as confident as we can be that Nicola has not left the field where she was last seen and our working hypothesis is that she has fallen into the river for some reason. There is no evidence whatsoever that there is anything suspicious about her disappearance or any third-party involvement in her going missing. Our investigation remains open and we will of course act on any new information which comes to light.

Nicola’s family are being supported by specially trained officers and we are keeping them fully updated.

Nicola, 45, was last seen on Friday morning (January 27th) at around 9.20am on the footpath by the river off Garstang Road.

Nicola is white, 5ft 3ins tall, with light brown shoulder-length hair. She speaks with an Essex accent. She was last seen wearing a long, ankle length black quilted gilet. She had a black Vector coat underneath which had long sleeves and came to her waist. She was wearing tight black jeans and had long green walking socks tucked into her jeans. She was wearing ankle length green wellington boots from Next.

Her hair was tied into a ponytail. She was wearing a necklace and pale blue fitbit.

Supt Sally Riley said: “It’s now a week since Nicola went missing and her disappearance has understandably caused a huge amount of concern and upset in the local community, as well as being an absolutely awful time for her family. As a mum I can’t begin to imagine the suffering they are going through. We are supporting them as best we can and keeping them updated on our efforts to try and find Nicola.

“We have done a huge amount of work both in terms of searches of the area as well as extensive enquiries which have been going on behind the scenes and based on that work we are as sure as we can be that Nicola has not left the area where she was last seen and that very sadly for some reason she has fallen into the water.

“There is absolutely nothing to suggest from all the extensive enquiries we have made that anything untoward has happened to her or that there is any third-party involvement in her disappearance.

“This remains a missing person enquiry and we will continue to carry out searches and to do everything we can to find Nicola and provide her family and the community with the answers they desperately need.

“Officers will be in and around the village and anyone with information or concerns should feel free to approach us.”

We can now confirm the following timings from the morning Nicola was last seen:
8.43am – Nicola walked along the path by the River Wyre, having dropped her children off at school
8:50am (approximately) - A dog-walker – somebody who knows Nicola – saw her walking around the lower field with her dog. Their two dogs interacted briefly before the witness left the field via the river path
8.53am – She sent an email to her boss
9.01am – She logged into a Teams call
9.10am (approximately) – A witness – somebody who knows Nicola – saw her on the upper field walking her dog, Willow. Work is ongoing today to establish exactly what time this was.
9.30am – The Teams call ended but Nicola stayed logged on
9.35am (approximately) – Nicola’s mobile phone and Willow were found at a bench by the river by another dog-walker.

Anybody who has seen Nicola, or has information about where she might be, is asked to call 101, quoting log 565 of January 30th. For immediate sightings please call 999.